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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 18, 2020 22:53:11 GMT -5
Dodgers-Rays WS it is.
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Post by honestlyabe on Oct 18, 2020 22:55:05 GMT -5
Good luck, Mookie. Miss ya!
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Post by manfred on Oct 18, 2020 22:55:09 GMT -5
Mookie, Joe, Dave vs.... whoever.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 23:01:00 GMT -5
I feel like Roberts just got a stay of execution.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 18, 2020 23:01:23 GMT -5
Congrats to Mookie on his second ring after the Dodgers completed this comeback (unlike the Astros).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2020 23:05:22 GMT -5
They give rings for the NLDS ?
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 18, 2020 23:09:23 GMT -5
They give rings for the NLDS ? Can you conceivably see how the Rays can beat the Dodgers? I hate the Rays going back to the Devil Rays days where they fist fought Pedro Martinez over him being better than them, but all bias aside, I don't see how this is even close to a even bet. If you're Las Vegas you got to betting every dollar on the Dodgers. Could win a ton of money if you bet a thousand dollars in the Rays I'm sure if they win.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2020 23:27:33 GMT -5
Congratulations to the NL Champion Dodgers, Mookie, Dave Roberts, and Joe Kelly.
The Braves came out all fired up, but when they were up 3-2 with 2 runners in scoring position with 0 outs and got both of those runners thrown out on that grounder, you could feel the air go out of their balloon, and then when Mookie (why can't we get players like that?! LOL. He's not too bad a fielder, is he?) denied Freeman an inning later I think it was, you knew it was just a matter of time before the Dodgers would come back and win.
The thing that really struck me those last few innings was how thankful I was that the Dodgers FO wouldn't allow Dave Roberts to use Julio Urias in Game 4 of the 2018 World Series.
Can you imagine if he had come in when Roberts had that miscommunication with Rich Hill? They used a LOOGY in Scott Alexander instead who walked Brock Holt promptly and came out in favor of righty Ryan Madson, who was on his last legs. The Sox had Kinsler and a switch-hitting Swihart on the bench - not exactly intimidating from the right side. You probably wouldn't have seen JBJ, Moreland, and eventually Devers pinch-hit, and if you did....well those guys were not the same against southpaws.
I think that game would have turned out differently had he been able to use Urias, but fortunately we'll never really know for sure, and if the Sox don't win that game who knows how that impacts them.
Either way, kudos to Roberts for sticking with Urias who was clearly cruising. I know he was trying to avoid using Jansen on consecutive days, but he resisted the knee-jerk reactionary move of going to his closer by keeping in a pitcher who was clearly getting the job done.
Here's hoping Roberts doesn't have any of those restrictions managing in the Series, where it's ironic that the architect of Tampa's first WS team is now going head-to-head against the new architects of the second TB World Series team.
I think that this is the year the Dodgers finally break through. They've been knocking on the door long enough. Hell, I even think Kershaw will pitch well.....we'll see on that one - even if he doesn't I still think LA takes this series rather easily.
Besides the Dodgers won the Series the last time baseball had a severely shortened season in 1981.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 19, 2020 0:58:51 GMT -5
They give rings for the NLDS ? Can you conceivably see how the Rays can beat the Dodgers? I hate the Rays going back to the Devil Rays days where they fist fought Pedro Martinez over him being better than them, but all bias aside, I don't see how this is even close to a even bet. If you're Las Vegas you got to betting every dollar on the Dodgers. Could win a ton of money if you bet a thousand dollars in the Rays I'm sure if they win. If I'm in Las Vegas, I look down the road and I see Los Angeles. There will be any number of hard core Dodger fans who will skew the betting dramatically. That happened when I was living there, and we'd take advantage of those odds to lay down a little money on the other side. That paid off well more than once as you say. The bookies set those odds strictly according to what they're taking in on each side. It's the bettors who make that book, and they may be doing you a favor if you go with the Rays.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2020 1:26:28 GMT -5
Previous years where the best records in each league faced off in the WS, since the DS was introduced in 1995:
2013 Bos > StL 4-2
1999 NYY > Atl 4-0 1995 Atl > Cle 4-2, also a shortened season!
Only other team besides the Rays who won 2 WTA games to get to the WS:
2012 Giants (beat the Reds 3-2, W/C Cardinals 4-3, swept the Tigers). They had the 3rd best record of the division champs.
Number of WTA games out of a possible 7:
2005 1 2006 1 2007 1
2009 0 2010 1 2011 4 2012 5 (+2 WC from here on) 2013 2 2014 1 2015 3 2016 2 2017 4 2018 1 2019 4 2020 3/6 plus 2/8 in WC round
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 19, 2020 2:39:32 GMT -5
Can you conceivably see how the Rays can beat the Dodgers? I hate the Rays going back to the Devil Rays days where they fist fought Pedro Martinez over him being better than them, but all bias aside, I don't see how this is even close to a even bet. If you're Las Vegas you got to betting every dollar on the Dodgers. Could win a ton of money if you bet a thousand dollars in the Rays I'm sure if they win. If I'm in Las Vegas, I look down the road and I see Los Angeles. There will be any number of hard core Dodger fans who will skew the betting dramatically. That happened when I was living there, and we'd take advantage of those odds to lay down a little money on the other side. That paid off well more than once as you say. The bookies set those odds strictly according to what they're taking in on each side. It's the bettors who make that book, and they may be doing you a favor if you go with the Rays. I've taken the drive from Las Vegas to LA (in real life). It's about 300 miles. The House always takes the safe bet (hence the reason why they usually win). The Dodgers in any manner is the minus number in any bet right now, no matter how or who many are betting. If you want real money, take the Rays.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 19, 2020 2:47:16 GMT -5
If I'm in Las Vegas, I look down the road and I see Los Angeles. There will be any number of hard core Dodger fans who will skew the betting dramatically. That happened when I was living there, and we'd take advantage of those odds to lay down a little money on the other side. That paid off well more than once as you say. The bookies set those odds strictly according to what they're taking in on each side. It's the bettors who make that book, and they may be doing you a favor if you go with the Rays. I've taken the drive from Las Vegas to LA. It's about 300 miles. The House always takes the safe bet. The Dodgers in any manner is the minus number in any bet right now, no matter how or who many are betting. If you want real money, take the Rays. The safe bet is for the house to have equal payouts on both sides. The odds fluctuate until they are set to encourage or discouage money on one side or the other. If the payouts are equal, the house always wins.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 19, 2020 2:51:49 GMT -5
I've taken the drive from Las Vegas to LA. It's about 300 miles. The House always takes the safe bet. The Dodgers in any manner is the minus number in any bet right now, no matter how or who many are betting. If you want real money, take the Rays. The safe bet is for the house to have equal payouts on both sides. The odds fluctuate until they are set to encourage or discouage money on one side or the other. If the payouts are equal, the house always wins. Yes usually, but the Dodgers are the safest payout right now. Hence why they will favor in their side. Tampa was probably rated at least 10/1 before the season started. I would be willing to gamble the Dodgers were at least 3/1 to win even before the season started. The safe bet is on LA right now. All I'm saying. Either way Vegas is making money (not worried about Vegas making money).
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 19, 2020 3:08:17 GMT -5
Wasn't saying all of that to be a dink either. If anyone has a 100 dollars to spare and wants to make their first gambling sports bet, and thinks TB has a slight chance, make the bet. It's a bet (with a slight chance) to make real money.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 19, 2020 3:23:38 GMT -5
I spent a lot of time in Vegas gambling, sports events and blackjack card counting. There are 3 types of general gamblers. the public which pretty much bets on the team they will win, the professional gambler who pretty much bets on the team they think beats the spread and arbitrage houses who look for situations where they think the numbers will move enough to put large sums of money on the wrong side then place an offsetting bet on the other side when the line moves greater than the spread. For the amateur gambler, the odds mean that there is no such thing as a safe bet.
I was in Vegas for the famous Buster Douglas/Mike Tyson fight. People think that Vegas lost a lot of money when Tyson lost. They didn't. I watched the odds go from 30-1 for Tyson to 100-1 within half a day. They stopped taking bets when an arbitrage house bought out the remaining Douglas bets. Vegas made money but the arbitrage houses cleaned up because they started with bets on Tyson then put bets on Douglas at the higher odds. They couldn't lose.
It's all a mirage, there is no such thing as a safe bet for the typical gambler.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 19, 2020 3:56:21 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2020 8:08:36 GMT -5
And the only team that beat the club with the best record in the other league was the 2013 Red Sox, who were also the only ream to have a losing record the year before (let alone finish last).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 19, 2020 8:15:22 GMT -5
And the only team that beat the club with the best record in the other league was the 2013 Red Sox. The only teams that had a losing record the year before were the 2007 and 2013 Red Sox.
You're wrong. The 2006 Red Sox stunk down the stretch, but they didn't have a losing record. They finished 86-76.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2020 8:46:16 GMT -5
And the only team that beat the club with the best record in the other league was the 2013 Red Sox. The only teams that had a losing record the year before were the 2007 and 2013 Red Sox.
You're wrong. The 2006 Red Sox stunk down the stretch, but they didn't have a losing record. They finished 86-76. I was looking at 1997!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 19, 2020 8:58:54 GMT -5
Mookie, Joe, Dave vs.... whoever.
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Post by manfred on Oct 19, 2020 9:07:04 GMT -5
Mookie, Joe, Dave vs.... whoever. That’s funny... is that former trade piece Manny Margot? I am honestly not sure. My brother and I were laughing about how the Rays could be on an airplane with most of America and go unrecognized. Not exactly “team-most-likely-to-be-on-Wheaties-boxes.”
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 19, 2020 11:30:28 GMT -5
The kid is making his way. He's done a lot to win over his teammates, not the least of which was the catch over the fence in foul territory where he could have landed on his head. So yes, there's some interest on both sides.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 19, 2020 15:07:47 GMT -5
Wasn't saying all of that to be a dink either. If anyone has a 100 dollars to spare and wants to make their first gambling sports bet, and thinks TB has a slight chance, make the bet. It's a bet (with a slight chance) to make real money. The current line is -200 for Dodgers and plus 165 for the Ray's. You make it sound like the Ray's have no chance, yet those odds basically give them a 38% chance of winning. I'd bet on the Ray's all day if that was plus 1000 or higher, yet it's not close to that. Let me know if it reaches the levels you're talking about because I'll throw a $100 down in two seconds on those odds.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 19, 2020 19:15:52 GMT -5
Wasn't saying all of that to be a dink either. If anyone has a 100 dollars to spare and wants to make their first gambling sports bet, and thinks TB has a slight chance, make the bet. It's a bet (with a slight chance) to make real money. The current line is -200 for Dodgers and plus 165 for the Ray's. You make it sound like the Ray's have no chance, yet those odds basically give them a 38% chance of winning. I'd bet on the Ray's all day if that was plus 1000 or higher, yet it's not close to that. Let me know if it reaches the levels you're talking about because I'll throw a $100 down in two seconds on those odds. Sounds like Vegas didn't like that every pitcher was used in game 7 for the Dodgers. Dodgers take game 1 and I'm sure it jumps to the line I'm talking about. Either way Tampa is a pretty big underdog. The defense and pitching is pretty equal. The difference is the offense. The offenses aren't close to equal.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 19, 2020 19:29:08 GMT -5
The current line is -200 for Dodgers and plus 165 for the Ray's. You make it sound like the Ray's have no chance, yet those odds basically give them a 38% chance of winning. I'd bet on the Ray's all day if that was plus 1000 or higher, yet it's not close to that. Let me know if it reaches the levels you're talking about because I'll throw a $100 down in two seconds on those odds. Sounds like Vegas didn't like that every pitcher was used in game 7 for the Dodgers. Dodgers take game 1 and I'm sure it jumps to the line I'm talking about. Either way Tampa is a pretty big underdog. The defense and pitching is pretty equal. The difference is the offense. The offenses aren't close to equal. You're sure a book that closes five minutes before the first pitch will change after day 1 ? I'm guessing you've never gambled.
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