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Red Sox Sign Hunter Renfroe
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 15, 2020 8:52:58 GMT -5
I mean... if he is a fourth outfielder, fine. But if this is a move that is projecting an outfield of Beni - Verdugo - Renfroe/platoon player x it is not something I’m excited about. That is not a good outfield — it is worse defensively by a lot than this year, and it is middling offensively. Yeah Renfroe has had a few good power years. He’s also had some bad years. Does this move make them any better when combined with JBJ walking? Don’t say saved money! They just did the money reset... we shouldn’t still be in cheapout mode. So... meh. I don't see them paying Renfroe 3m to play PT as a FA in this climate. What could be going on is the scare over how far Benintendi has fallen the last 2 seasons as some insurance there. Wouldn't shock me to see DeShields/Pillar brought in also if price on them tumbles to what Renfroe got, or lower all, except Verdugo used in a rotation. Bloom: 'There's still a lot of offseason left. We don't know exactly how our outfield shapes up.' 'He has the potential to be more than a platoon player.' I'm puzzled. Are people unable to read between the lines, even when it seems completely obvious? Are they unwilling to do so, out of some unfortunate, perverse need to be as pessimistic as possible? Or have they simply forgotten Bloom's past statements? The Red Sox' official position is that they will try to, and hope to, re-sign Jackie Bradley, Jr..
Hence: "We don't know exactly how our outfield shapes up." = "We don't know for certain that we can re-sign JBJ." Quite possibly, also, "if we can't, we don't know for certain whether we can execute our plan B if we fail to re-sign him."
Hence: "'He has the potential to be more than a platoon player." = "One of the reasons we signed him is that, in the absence of JBJ, a plan B or C is to have Verdugo in CF and Renfroe as the regular in RF."
I'm sorry, but this is not open to debate. It couldn't be more plain.
I think plan B, if it exists, is a theoretical plan where the Springer and JBJ signings free up an OF or two in trade. The Mets would likely move Brandon Nimmo and the Jays Randal Grichuck if they signed a new CF. Realistically that depends on the price and length of contract JBJ is looking for. Here's what Bloom just said about Pillar: CB: "Kevin (Pillar) was great for us. We signed him obviously after we traded Mookie. We had an opening in our outfield. You can never fill Mookie's shoes but we were glad he was still available on the market. And then when the season started especially with, with the injury to Benny, he became invaluable and he played great for us. Kevin was great on the field and he was also great in our clubhouse, which is impressive for someone who didn't have 10 years experience to play the leadership role that he did. But because the season unfolded the way it did obviously it made sense given that he was a veteran here on a shorter term deal, to try to get something that could help our future. An outfield of Verdugo, Pillar, Benintendi & Renfroe with Munoz and Puello at AAA to hold the fort until Duran is ready would do if it was significantly more cost effective.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 15, 2020 12:33:44 GMT -5
What that tells me - a lot of HRs and Flyballs are going to turn into doubles. This could raise his BA but may also lower his ISO. Anyone have a good vertical spray chart resource to verify? I see zero evidence for that on that chart. Can you explain what you mean? There are a lot of fly outs into territory that is beyond the Green Monster. I've seen no video evidence that he hits Jim-Rich type line drives. Although left field is short at Fenway, it actually slightly suppresses home runs to right handed hitters who pull the ball (chart below shows 0.98 - so it's almost average). Chris' park overlay is nice, but it doesn't indicate more home runs, only that Renfroe pulls the ball frequently. You're thinking 'he will hit more home runs if he doesn't hit Jim-Rich (I would have used Gary Sheffield) type line drives', but even a normal batter has their home runs suppressed by fenway's left field due to the height of the wall. It's players who really loft the ball who have a chance to hit more home runs and those are often left-handed power hitters who go the other way. Orion provided some analysis, but would be nice to have a chart that tracks the full trajectory so we could see exactly the effect left field will have on his flyballs (I'm sure a chart could be made, if it isn't already out there). swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 15, 2020 12:54:03 GMT -5
MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi tweeted that the Phillies and Cubs have joined the JBJ sweepstakes. Philadelphis makes sense as it has a vacancy in CF and the connection to Dombrowski is a factor. The Cubs have a connection, too, with David Ross and Craig Breslow.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 15, 2020 14:17:08 GMT -5
Think it's open to debate as much as anything else baseball related is on this site. Some of which goes on a dozen pages long rehashing the same exact points in extremely long posts and meticulous detail over the same items. I also, which have posted before don't believe Bloom is going to go out and pay JBJ 8-10m+ AAV over 3y(or plus y) knowing his output offensively in the shortened season almost assuredly will disappear and what everyone saw the previous cpl of years will probably return, making it a bad deal which he isn't known for. Show me a GM who doesn't give lip service to resigning his own players in a press conference, or looking to improve his club. Not trying to be snippy here. Just believe Bloom is going to be using "his" FA dollars.. The few spent towards pitching and not non critical areas. In 2018-2019, JBJ was worth 2.1 WAR per season. And if you don't cherry-pick, he's been worth 2.5 WAR/150 games since 2018. In what world is that a bad deal for 8-10 million AAV? For a bunch of years, maybe, but it's a reasonably safe bet over 2-3 years.
And what's the better option? By the numbers he's been better offensively than Pillar every season since 2015, and better defensively every season since 2018. He's also a year younger. And if you're worried about overpaying for a free agent then Springer seems like a much bigger risk.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 15, 2020 17:56:02 GMT -5
MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi tweeted that the Phillies and Cubs have joined the JBJ sweepstakes, according to his agent Scott Boras. Philadelphis makes sense as it has a vacancy in CF and the connection to Dombrowski is a factor. The Cubs have a connection, too, with David Ross and Craig Breslow. FIFY.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 15, 2020 18:38:21 GMT -5
Welcome to the Tampa Bay Rays of the North !! Where productive platoons and opener starters will yield you 90 wins and some grudging respect.
I jest (only half jest, really). I hope this works out as a great move, but I am not going to get excited about a 4th outfielder. As it stands right now, on this roster, we have 1 really good outfielder, 1 DH whom we hope doesn't see the outfield too often, and 1 outfielder that could not square up on 90 mph cheese and has lost a step (or 2). In short, before getting excited about 4th outfielders, i would like to see 2nd and 3rd outfielders.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2020 20:23:17 GMT -5
I mean... if he is a fourth outfielder, fine. But if this is a move that is projecting an outfield of Beni - Verdugo - Renfroe/platoon player x it is not something I’m excited about. That is not a good outfield — it is worse defensively by a lot than this year, and it is middling offensively. Yeah Renfroe has had a few good power years. He’s also had some bad years. Does this move make them any better when combined with JBJ walking? Don’t say saved money! They just did the money reset... we shouldn’t still be in cheapout mode. So... meh. I don't see them paying Renfroe 3m to play PT as a FA in this climate. What could be going on is the scare over how far Benintendi has fallen the last 2 seasons as some insurance there. Wouldn't shock me to see DeShields/Pillar brought in also if price on them tumbles to what Renfroe got, or lower all, except Verdugo used in a rotation. Bloom: 'There's still a lot of offseason left. We don't know exactly how our outfield shapes up.' 'He has the potential to be more than a platoon player.' I'm puzzled. Are people unable to read between the lines, even when it seems completely obvious? Are they unwilling to do so, out of some unfortunate, perverse need to be as pessimistic as possible? Or have they simply forgotten Bloom's past statements? The Red Sox' official position is that they will try to, and hope to, re-sign Jackie Bradley, Jr..
Hence: "We don't know exactly how our outfield shapes up." = "We don't know for certain that we can re-sign JBJ." Quite possibly, also, "if we can't, we don't know for certain whether we can execute our plan B if we fail to re-sign him."
Hence: "'He has the potential to be more than a platoon player." = "One of the reasons we signed him is that, in the absence of JBJ, a plan B or C is to have Verdugo in CF and Renfroe as the regular in RF."
I'm sorry, but this is not open to debate. It couldn't be more plain.
I think plan B, if it exists, is a theoretical plan where the Springer and JBJ signings free up an OF or two in trade. The Mets would likely move Brandon Nimmo and the Jays Randal Grichuck if they signed a new CF. I think this is right on. There's nothing in what Bloom actually said that would lead one to think he was signed to be a no-question, full-time regular. He specifically said he has that potential. If they signed him to start then Bloom would've been right out there saying "no, he's starting for us we really believe in him bouncing back" blah blah blah. This would've been faint praise for a guy they signed to hand the right field job to full-time. It seems clear that teams are going to wait out the free agents so they can drive their prices down. I think we're going to see a lot of deals done in late January and early February, or perhaps even later if they officially push back the start of the season. Hell, that was happening before the pandemic killed revenues. Why are people surprised the market has been slow to form now? One thing I haven't seen posted: MLBTR had projected Renfroe's arbitration salary at $4.3M using the system that makes most sense to me, and as low as $3.6M. If Renfroe had been on the team last year and signed at the non-tender deadline for $3.1M, we all likely would've seen it as a sound signing at a discount from the projection. $3.1M is a nice price for Renfroe, a guy who was traded with a top 100 prospect (and old friend Esteban Quiroz!) last year for Tommy Pham and a guy who tied for second in the NL ROY voting.
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Post by manfred on Dec 15, 2020 20:55:01 GMT -5
I mean... if he is a fourth outfielder, fine. But if this is a move that is projecting an outfield of Beni - Verdugo - Renfroe/platoon player x it is not something I’m excited about. That is not a good outfield — it is worse defensively by a lot than this year, and it is middling offensively. Yeah Renfroe has had a few good power years. He’s also had some bad years. Does this move make them any better when combined with JBJ walking? Don’t say saved money! They just did the money reset... we shouldn’t still be in cheapout mode. So... meh. I don't see them paying Renfroe 3m to play PT as a FA in this climate. What could be going on is the scare over how far Benintendi has fallen the last 2 seasons as some insurance there. Wouldn't shock me to see DeShields/Pillar brought in also if price on them tumbles to what Renfroe got, or lower all, except Verdugo used in a rotation. Bloom: 'There's still a lot of offseason left. We don't know exactly how our outfield shapes up.' 'He has the potential to be more than a platoon player.' I'm puzzled. Are people unable to read between the lines, even when it seems completely obvious? Are they unwilling to do so, out of some unfortunate, perverse need to be as pessimistic as possible? Or have they simply forgotten Bloom's past statements? The Red Sox' official position is that they will try to, and hope to, re-sign Jackie Bradley, Jr..
Hence: "We don't know exactly how our outfield shapes up." = "We don't know for certain that we can re-sign JBJ." Quite possibly, also, "if we can't, we don't know for certain whether we can execute our plan B if we fail to re-sign him."
Hence: "'He has the potential to be more than a platoon player." = "One of the reasons we signed him is that, in the absence of JBJ, a plan B or C is to have Verdugo in CF and Renfroe as the regular in RF."
I'm sorry, but this is not open to debate. It couldn't be more plain.
I think plan B, if it exists, is a theoretical plan where the Springer and JBJ signings free up an OF or two in trade. The Mets would likely move Brandon Nimmo and the Jays Randal Grichuck if they signed a new CF. When he says he has the potential to *more* than a platoon player, the implication is he *is* a platoon player, ergo, he signed under a mutual understanding he’d be platooning. That suggests they expect him to be paired with someone who is also a platoon type. Which is not thrilling. I’m not p**sing on it, but it may simply be standing still. I do not expect JBJ back. The end of the year seemed like a real goodbye lap for both parties. I’d love to have him back. But then I’d see Beni-JBJ-Verdugo as an everyday outfield, with Renfroe as a guy who spells them periodically. Acceptable, but, again, a small move. I get, too, the math... he came cheap!... but after a year of dumping salary and taking a beating, I hope the payoff is more than discount outfielders and.... shudder... aged former Cleveland aces. Last thing, at risk of contradicting my last point — if this is a move to be more competitive this year but also keep the powder dry because the FO knows it is another building year, then I say great! But it is the path to an 85 win season, which, again, I say great! If it means blowing it out next year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Dec 15, 2020 23:37:48 GMT -5
All the recaps on JBJ afterwards.. I just can't see it still for multiple reasons. Benny gets moved (after JBJ signed) to clear 5m and there goes the LH OF bat to rotate with Verdugo/Renfroe on days off. Not to mention he's a good bounce back guy.
Should they sign JBJ to whatever amount and keep all the OF's, then that's a problem finding AB's with Martinez in the DH slot for 2y, unless 1 can be given a crash course at 1b?
Roster space and money to spend. Whitlock they need to protect, so there goes the 26th roster spot and what about the rotation spots? believe most all (myself included) thought mid to lower rotation arms would be cheaper, yet we've seen Ray and Smyly go for 8m+ already and Boston needs at LEAST 1 of that caliber (or better) to begin the season, 2 would be better.
Relievers.. Nothing done in this area yet that will have a meaningful impact other than sign a few miLB FA's of no real importance and a rule 5 guy taken in the draft. Need 2-3 additions of MLB caliber at a minimum here and a closer being one.
2nd base. Is it better to head into ST with Arroyo and "others" as the 2b, with no fallback options other than a not ready rookie than sign a CF not really needed for a lot of cash?
I don't really know how to show any other way than this why giving JBJ all that money is such a bad idea.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2020 0:35:16 GMT -5
Reason not to sign Bradley and yeah I'm kinda shocked we are at this point, he's streaky. He might get you two war, yet it's two outstanding months and four crappy ones, like really crappy.
A year ago it was Bloom overplayed his hand tendering Bradley a contract because he had no value at one year 11 million. Now it's give him that over 2-3 years. Hard pass! Let's see Bloom get creative. Now if it's a one year deal, okay there really are no bad one year deals.
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rasimon
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Post by rasimon on Dec 16, 2020 3:38:49 GMT -5
Reason not to sign Bradley and yeah I'm kinda shocked we are at this point, he's streaky. He might get you two war, yet it's two outstanding months and four crappy ones, like really crappy. A year ago it was Bloom overplayed his hand tendering Bradley a contract because he had no value at one year 11 million. Now it's give him that over 2-3 years. Hard pass! Let's see Bloom get creative. Now if it's a one year deal, okay there really are no bad one year deals. a player, like JBJ, who experiences extreme hot and cold streaks could actually be more valuable than a player who produces that same output on average but does so in a more consistent manner. If management can identify when the hot-cold player is in a hot streak, they could move him to the front of the lineup thus maximizing his plate appearances; and when he is in a cold streak they could move him to the back of the lineup thus minimizing his plate appearances. You obviously can't operationally do that with every player at the same time, and with many players its not even clear that their recent performance is a statistically significant predictor of their future performance. But if you have a player, like JBJ, who hits like Manny Ramirez when he is hot and hits like Orlando Ramirez when he is cold it may make sense to do. John Henry made his money in commodity trading as a trend follower. He should get this.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 16, 2020 3:49:09 GMT -5
Reason not to sign Bradley and yeah I'm kinda shocked we are at this point, he's streaky. He might get you two war, yet it's two outstanding months and four crappy ones, like really crappy. A year ago it was Bloom overplayed his hand tendering Bradley a contract because he had no value at one year 11 million. Now it's give him that over 2-3 years. Hard pass! Let's see Bloom get creative. Now if it's a one year deal, okay there really are no bad one year deals. a player, like JBJ, who experiences extreme hot and cold streaks could actually be more valuable than a player who produces that same output on average but does so in a more consistent manner. If management can identify when the hot-cold player is in a hot streak, they could move him to the front of the lineup thus maximizing his plate appearances; and when he is in a cold streak they could move him to the back of the lineup thus minimizing his plate appearances. I remember when John Farrell led off JBJ on a 32 game hitting streak once. I think he went cold for a month and a half thereafter. That idea sounds optimal, but it puts players in uncomfortable positions half the time and doesn't work a lot.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 16, 2020 9:12:07 GMT -5
a player, like JBJ, who experiences extreme hot and cold streaks could actually be more valuable than a player who produces that same output on average but does so in a more consistent manner. If management can identify when the hot-cold player is in a hot streak, they could move him to the front of the lineup thus maximizing his plate appearances; and when he is in a cold streak they could move him to the back of the lineup thus minimizing his plate appearances. I remember when John Farrell led off JBJ on a 32 game hitting streak once. I think he went cold for a month and a half thereafter. That idea sounds optimal, but it puts players in uncomfortable positions half the time and doesn't work a lot. I remember that. JBJ was at 29 games and Farrell decided to lead him off and JBJ never made it to 30. I really thought we were going to see the JBJ that was a .300 plus hitter in the lower minors. Never happened. Still a good player, but I'll always feel like he should have been a better hitter than he was. I think the ability is there, but when he gets ice cold he gets ice cold.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2020 10:07:37 GMT -5
Reason not to sign Bradley and yeah I'm kinda shocked we are at this point, he's streaky. He might get you two war, yet it's two outstanding months and four crappy ones, like really crappy. A year ago it was Bloom overplayed his hand tendering Bradley a contract because he had no value at one year 11 million. Now it's give him that over 2-3 years. Hard pass! Let's see Bloom get creative. Now if it's a one year deal, okay there really are no bad one year deals. a player, like JBJ, who experiences extreme hot and cold streaks could actually be more valuable than a player who produces that same output on average but does so in a more consistent manner. If management can identify when the hot-cold player is in a hot streak, they could move him to the front of the lineup thus maximizing his plate appearances; and when he is in a cold streak they could move him to the back of the lineup thus minimizing his plate appearances. You obviously can't operationally do that with every player at the same time, and with many players its not even clear that their recent performance is a statistically significant predictor of their future performance. But if you have a player, like JBJ, who hits like Manny Ramirez when he is hot and hits like Orlando Ramirez when he is cold it may make sense to do. John Henry made his money in commodity trading as a trend follower. He should get this. The problem for me is when he's bad, he's so bad you almost can't play him. Yet you have to so he figures things out and gets hot. So when you finally get him hot I wouldn't do anything to mess that up, you could kill the value he does give you. I'll take a more consistent guy all day long.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 16, 2020 12:16:27 GMT -5
When he says he has the potential to *more* than a platoon player, the implication is he *is* a platoon player, ergo, he signed under a mutual understanding he’d be platooning. That suggests they expect him to be paired with someone who is also a platoon type. Which is not thrilling. I’m not p**sing on it, but it may simply be standing still. I do not expect JBJ back. The end of the year seemed like a real goodbye lap for both parties. I’d love to have him back. But then I’d see Beni-JBJ-Verdugo as an everyday outfield, with Renfroe as a guy who spells them periodically. Acceptable, but, again, a small move. I get, too, the math... he came cheap!... but after a year of dumping salary and taking a beating, I hope the payoff is more than discount outfielders and.... shudder... aged former Cleveland aces. Last thing, at risk of contradicting my last point — if this is a move to be more competitive this year but also keep the powder dry because the FO knows it is another building year, then I say great! But it is the path to an 85 win season, which, again, I say great! If it means blowing it out next year. Agree on the first sentence. Disagree on the second. There's more than one way to use a "platoon player." "Platoon player" to me means a player who's going to play when the matchups are right. In other words, the role they acquired Pillar to fill last year. It doesn't necessarily mean they acquired him with the intent that they will acquire a LHH complement to form a true platoon at one position. There are a lot of questions in the OF right now. They literally don't have a center fielder. Who knows what they're going to get out of Benintendi. If they re-sign Bradley, we know how streaky he is. Signing a guy like Renfroe for that spot makes sense - he can spell whichever OF it makes sense to spell when the matchup is good.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 16, 2020 13:07:32 GMT -5
I see zero evidence for that on that chart. Can you explain what you mean? There are a lot of fly outs into territory that is beyond the Green Monster. I've seen no video evidence that he hits Jim-Rich type line drives. Although left field is short at Fenway, it actually slightly suppresses home runs to right handed hitters who pull the ball (chart below shows 0.98 - so it's almost average). Chris' park overlay is nice, but it doesn't indicate more home runs, only that Renfroe pulls the ball frequently. You're thinking 'he will hit more home runs if he doesn't hit Jim-Rich (I would have used Gary Sheffield) type line drives', but even a normal batter has their home runs suppressed by fenway's left field due to the height of the wall. It's players who really loft the ball who have a chance to hit more home runs and those are often left-handed power hitters who go the other way. Orion provided some analysis, but would be nice to have a chart that tracks the full trajectory so we could see exactly the effect left field will have on his flyballs (I'm sure a chart could be made, if it isn't already out there). swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factorsYou make some good points, but Renfroe's 33 hrs from 2019 are in this one video. Most are "towering fly ball to left" or "high and deep to left". His swing has a lot of loft, and his one-handed follow-through is very high. I saw only one lazy highish liner I could conjecture would probably have hit the Monster, with two others possible. He also hits the ball high and far to RF, but with less loft. Zero of those "out in two seconds" line drives some people hit (e.g. occasionally Dwight Evans, coming down on the ball like a Hriniak student) If his hrs are almost always high in the air, it stands to reason that many of the fly outs on the spray chart would become hrs or wall scrapers. But nobody makes videos of "times Hunter Renfroe flied out to the warning track in left"
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Post by incandenza on Dec 16, 2020 13:16:34 GMT -5
a player, like JBJ, who experiences extreme hot and cold streaks could actually be more valuable than a player who produces that same output on average but does so in a more consistent manner. If management can identify when the hot-cold player is in a hot streak, they could move him to the front of the lineup thus maximizing his plate appearances; and when he is in a cold streak they could move him to the back of the lineup thus minimizing his plate appearances. You obviously can't operationally do that with every player at the same time, and with many players its not even clear that their recent performance is a statistically significant predictor of their future performance. But if you have a player, like JBJ, who hits like Manny Ramirez when he is hot and hits like Orlando Ramirez when he is cold it may make sense to do. John Henry made his money in commodity trading as a trend follower. He should get this. The problem for me is when he's bad, he's so bad you almost can't play him. Yet you have to so he figures things out and gets hot. So when you finally get him hot I wouldn't do anything to mess that up, you could kill the value he does give you. I'll take a more consistent guy all day long. Is this a question of the playeer's value, or of your emotional experience? Because the streakiness is already factored into the WAR calculations, etc. Unless there's an argument for why streakiness causes a team to lose more games than otherwise (and maybe there is!) then you're just saying it's not as satisfying to watch a player like that.
And as far as that goes, I happen to think JBJ provides a high entertainment/WAR return. For one, he makes exciting defensive plays all the time, and those are the funnest plays in baseball (which, by the way, mitigates his streakiness as a hitter, since he's contributing to the team even when he's cold at the plate; compare that to when JDM is cold at the plate, for instance). For another - and maybe this is just me - I kind of enjoy the streakiness. It's so awesome when he's hot, and then when he's cold it's frustrating, but I find myself really rooting for him to get hot again. As a result I've probably paid more attention to his at bats than any other player on the team in recent years.
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 16, 2020 13:24:32 GMT -5
Watched that video and interestingly I counted 23/33 HR's against RHP. I expected more against LHP after reading about his L/R splits.
PS: Not seeing many LD off the wall...He has the potential to be a beast at Fenway
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 16, 2020 13:29:20 GMT -5
Obviously at this point the best fit for the Red Sox is having JBJ return to play CF and utilized Renfroe as a #4 platoon OF.
But it seems to me that it's not out of the realm of possibility that one of JBJ's suitors might hand him a 3 year deal and if that does indeed happen, then I would anticipate the Sox wouldn't nor shouldn't be one of those teams. I think it's more likely than not that JBJ winds up elsewhere because of the duration of a deal that another team is more likely to give him. The Red Sox need JBJ for this season and probably next season but should not need him for 2023. By then Duran should be ready and Jimenez might be knocking on the door.
I think the Sox will turn to Almora as plan B because they do need a guy on the roster who is a true CF but isn't an automatic out at the plate.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 16, 2020 13:52:23 GMT -5
Watched that video and interestingly I counted 23/33 HR's against RHP. I expected more against LHP after reading about his L/R splits. PS: Not seeing many LD off the wall...He has the potential to be a beast at Fenway It's actually a 22/11 split. But he hit 1/3 of his HR against LHP despite getting just 1/4 of his plate appearances against them in 2019. Split PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHP 361 327 68 16 0 22 45 29 123 .208 .274 .459 .733 150 4 2 0 3 0 1 .249 89 91 vs LHP 133 113 27 3 1 11 19 17 31 .239 .331 .575 .906 65 2 0 0 3 1 0 .216 132 131
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2020 14:15:58 GMT -5
The problem for me is when he's bad, he's so bad you almost can't play him. Yet you have to so he figures things out and gets hot. So when you finally get him hot I wouldn't do anything to mess that up, you could kill the value he does give you. I'll take a more consistent guy all day long. Is this a question of the playeer's value, or of your emotional experience? Because the streakiness is already factored into the WAR calculations, etc. Unless there's an argument for why streakiness causes a team to lose more games than otherwise (and maybe there is!) then you're just saying it's not as satisfying to watch a player like that.
And as far as that goes, I happen to think JBJ provides a high entertainment/WAR return. For one, he makes exciting defensive plays all the time, and those are the funnest plays in baseball (which, by the way, mitigates his streakiness as a hitter, since he's contributing to the team even when he's cold at the plate; compare that to when JDM is cold at the plate, for instance). For another - and maybe this is just me - I kind of enjoy the streakiness. It's so awesome when he's hot, and then when he's cold it's frustrating, but I find myself really rooting for him to get hot again. As a result I've probably paid more attention to his at bats than any other player on the team in recent years.
I don't see how it wouldn't with the extreme nature Bradley does it. You get around four months of really negative hitting and two months of all-star hitting. His hot streaks cover fewer games. Maybe it's just me, yet the best lineups are the ones with few holes for long periods. I feel Bradley makes things really hard on a manager.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 16, 2020 14:28:52 GMT -5
Obviously at this point the best fit for the Red Sox is having JBJ return to play CF and utilized Renfroe as a #4 platoon OF. But it seems to me that it's not out of the realm of possibility that one of JBJ's suitors might hand him a 3 year deal and if that does indeed happen, then I would anticipate the Sox wouldn't nor shouldn't be one of those teams. I think it's more likely than not that JBJ winds up elsewhere because of the duration of a deal that another team is more likely to give him. The Red Sox need JBJ for this season and probably next season but should not need him for 2023. By then Duran should be ready and Jimenez might be knocking on the door. I think the Sox will turn to Almora as plan B because they do need a guy on the roster who is a true CF but isn't an automatic out at the plate. I've enjoyed watching Jackie play center, but I believe, considering dollars and length of contract, that it would be in the Sox's interest to do one of two things: 1) bring back Pillar on a 1-year contract, or 2) sign Almora I've always thought we need another righthanded bat in the outfield. This way he have a true centerfielder on just a 1-year and the ability to platoon effectively.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 16, 2020 14:55:29 GMT -5
Is this a question of the playeer's value, or of your emotional experience? Because the streakiness is already factored into the WAR calculations, etc. Unless there's an argument for why streakiness causes a team to lose more games than otherwise (and maybe there is!) then you're just saying it's not as satisfying to watch a player like that.
And as far as that goes, I happen to think JBJ provides a high entertainment/WAR return. For one, he makes exciting defensive plays all the time, and those are the funnest plays in baseball (which, by the way, mitigates his streakiness as a hitter, since he's contributing to the team even when he's cold at the plate; compare that to when JDM is cold at the plate, for instance). For another - and maybe this is just me - I kind of enjoy the streakiness. It's so awesome when he's hot, and then when he's cold it's frustrating, but I find myself really rooting for him to get hot again. As a result I've probably paid more attention to his at bats than any other player on the team in recent years.
I don't see how it wouldn't with the extreme nature Bradley does it. You get around four months of really negative hitting and two months of all-star hitting. His hot streaks cover fewer games. Maybe it's just me, yet the best lineups are the ones with few holes for long periods. I feel Bradley makes things really hard on a manager. And the alternative is? Almora, DeShields, Marisnick, Pillar? JBJ is an easy choice when compared to those guys, it’s not even close. If people are worried about offensive production from the CF spot, then It’s moving Verdugo and finding a RF to platoon with Renfroe and then hope Benentindi repeats 2018.
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rasimon
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Post by rasimon on Dec 16, 2020 15:37:40 GMT -5
I don't see how it wouldn't with the extreme nature Bradley does it. You get around four months of really negative hitting and two months of all-star hitting. His hot streaks cover fewer games. Maybe it's just me, yet the best lineups are the ones with few holes for long periods. I feel Bradley makes things really hard on a manager. And the alternative is? Almora, DeShields, Marisnick, Pillar? JBJ is an easy choice when compared to those guys, it’s not even close. If if people are worried about offensive production from the CF spot, then It’s moving Verdugo and finding a RF to platoon with Renfroe and then hope Benentindi repeats 2018. Maybe CF is the position that doesn't get filled yet. The Sox have a lot of holes to fill right now and they have some but not a ton of $ to throw around to fix. We need a 2bman, probably 2 starting pitchers, multiple relief pitchers, CF, and maybe LF. After this year they may need 3b or SS too. If Springer and Bradley are too pricey then focus on where there are players that we like and fix those now. Ha at 2b. Kluber and Sugano at SP. Maybe Yates and another RP.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Dec 16, 2020 16:16:35 GMT -5
I remember when John Farrell led off JBJ on a 32 game hitting streak once. I think he went cold for a month and a half thereafter. That idea sounds optimal, but it puts players in uncomfortable positions half the time and doesn't work a lot. I remember that. JBJ was at 29 games and Farrell decided to lead him off and JBJ never made it to 30. I really thought we were going to see the JBJ that was a .300 plus hitter in the lower minors. Never happened. Still a good player, but I'll always feel like he should have been a better hitter than he was. I think the ability is there, but when he gets ice cold he gets ice cold. Yeah that's right, it was 29 games. You have a better memory than mine fortunately.
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