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SoxProspects Forum Hall of Fame Voting
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2021 17:01:36 GMT -5
Does the person who voted for Clemens but not Bonds want to explain themselves?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2021 17:07:16 GMT -5
Does the person who voted for Clemens but not Bonds want to explain themselves? I want to hear the Torii Hunter case!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 20, 2021 11:58:16 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight
Andruw Jones CF | 1996 - 2012 | ATL, LAD, TEX, CHW, NYY 5x All-Star 10x Gold Glove Silver Slugger ML PoY Andruw Jones WAR: 62.7 Better than 47.7% of HOFers Black Ink: 10 Better than 28.1% of HOFers Gray Ink: 47 Better than 5.5% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 109.0 Better than 29.4% of HOFers JAWS: 54.58 Better than 63.2% of HOFers at CF Andruw Jones enters his 4th year on the ballot, hoping to make another jump after reaching a new high of 19.4% last year. Jones was in the spotlight from early on in his career, beginning 1996 as the top prospect in the minor leagues and then rising from High-A ball all the way to the '96 Braves' World Series lineup, where he became the youngest player to hit a home run in the Fall Classic.
He went on to become a dominant defensive presence for the late '90s/early 2000s Braves, rattling off a streak of 10 Gold Glove-winning seasons. By Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg, one of the main fielding sabermetrics and available back to 1953, Andruw Jones was more valuable over the course of his career than any other centerfielder in MLB history (2nd place in that statistic at center field is Willie Mays). Jones' defensive contributions in addition to his offensive moments, including leading the NL in home runs and RBI in 2005, led to him being 3rd in Wins Above Replacement from 1998 to 2006, only trailing Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds in that time span. Jones would go on to a steady decline by the time he entered his 30s, including posting a -1.6 WAR in his 2008 season with the Dodgers, good for 4th-worst in the NL that year. The shortened career led to failing to reach notable Hall of Fame milestones such as the 2,000-hit threshold.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 20, 2021 12:51:06 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight Andruw Jones CF | 1996 - 2012 | ATL, LAD, TEX, CHW, NYY 5x All-Star 10x Gold Glove Silver Slugger ML PoY Andruw Jones WAR: 62.7 Better than 47.7% of HOFers Black Ink: 10 Better than 28.1% of HOFers Gray Ink: 47 Better than 5.5% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 109.0 Better than 29.4% of HOFers JAWS: 54.58 Better than 63.2% of HOFers at CF Andruw Jones enters his 4th year on the ballot, hoping to make another jump after reaching a new high of 19.4% last year. Jones was in the spotlight from early on in his career, beginning 1996 as the top prospect in the minor leagues and then rising from High-A ball all the way to the '96 Braves' World Series lineup, where he became the youngest player to hit a home run in the Fall Classic. He went on to become a dominant defensive presence for the late '90s/early 2000s Braves, rattling off a streak of 10 Gold Glove-winning seasons. By Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg, one of the main fielding sabermetrics and available back to 1953, Andruw Jones was more valuable over the course of his career than any other centerfielder in MLB history (2nd place in that statistic at center field is Willie Mays). Jones' defensive contributions in addition to his offensive moments, including leading the NL in home runs and RBI in 2005, led to him being 3rd in Wins Above Replacement from 1998 to 2006, only trailing Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds in that time span. Jones would go on to a steady decline by the time he entered his 30s, including posting a -1.6 WAR in his 2008 season with the Dodgers, good for 4th-worst in the NL that year. The shortened career led to failing to reach notable Hall of Fame milestones such as the 2,000-hit threshold. I had Jones in, but I changed my mind. His collapse after 29 is epic. 2007-2012, he averaged .8 WAR a season. So, fine, he had a good prime. But then his counting stats, which are below traditional cutoffs anyway, get weaker. In that brutal decline he had 377 hits. So his prime years he had a bit over 1,500 hits. He hit 92 HRs in his mop up years. I know all guys have decline years when they pad, but Jones should barely have been in MLB much of that span. It wasn’t like he went from great to pretty good... he went from excellent to anchor. The only wobbliness I feel is defense. Was he so good it puts him in? I say no, but I get it for people who say yes.
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Post by kman22 on Jan 20, 2021 12:59:30 GMT -5
I'd love to see the spotlight for Scott Rolen. He seems to have a lot of support here, but hadn't been on my radar.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 20, 2021 13:45:24 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight Andruw Jones CF | 1996 - 2012 | ATL, LAD, TEX, CHW, NYY 5x All-Star 10x Gold Glove Silver Slugger ML PoY Andruw Jones WAR: 62.7 Better than 47.7% of HOFers Black Ink: 10 Better than 28.1% of HOFers Gray Ink: 47 Better than 5.5% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 109.0 Better than 29.4% of HOFers JAWS: 54.58 Better than 63.2% of HOFers at CF Andruw Jones enters his 4th year on the ballot, hoping to make another jump after reaching a new high of 19.4% last year. Jones was in the spotlight from early on in his career, beginning 1996 as the top prospect in the minor leagues and then rising from High-A ball all the way to the '96 Braves' World Series lineup, where he became the youngest player to hit a home run in the Fall Classic. He went on to become a dominant defensive presence for the late '90s/early 2000s Braves, rattling off a streak of 10 Gold Glove-winning seasons. By Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg, one of the main fielding sabermetrics and available back to 1953, Andruw Jones was more valuable over the course of his career than any other centerfielder in MLB history (2nd place in that statistic at center field is Willie Mays). Jones' defensive contributions in addition to his offensive moments, including leading the NL in home runs and RBI in 2005, led to him being 3rd in Wins Above Replacement from 1998 to 2006, only trailing Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds in that time span. Jones would go on to a steady decline by the time he entered his 30s, including posting a -1.6 WAR in his 2008 season with the Dodgers, good for 4th-worst in the NL that year. The shortened career led to failing to reach notable Hall of Fame milestones such as the 2,000-hit threshold. I had Jones in, but I changed my mind. His collapse after 29 is epic. 2007-2012, he averaged .8 WAR a season. So, fine, he had a good prime. But then his counting stats, which are below traditional cutoffs anyway, get weaker. In that brutal decline he had 377 hits. So his prime years he had a bit over 1,500 hits. He hit 92 HRs in his mop up years. I know all guys have decline years when they pad, but Jones should barely have been in MLB much of that span. It wasn’t like he went from great to pretty good... he went from excellent to anchor. The only wobbliness I feel is defense. Was he so good it puts him in? I say no, but I get it for people who say yes. The one thing that you need to keep in mind with Jones, though, is that while yes, he fell off after age 29, you're only talking about the last quarter of his career because he broke into the majors at age 19. If we are talking about a guy who broke in at, say, 24, then he's falling off in his mid-30s and it doesn't seem quite as bad. He had a 10-year peak - this isn't a Johan Santana situation where he also had a very short peak (7 years in his case).
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 20, 2021 13:50:40 GMT -5
I had Jones in, but I changed my mind. His collapse after 29 is epic. 2007-2012, he averaged .8 WAR a season. So, fine, he had a good prime. But then his counting stats, which are below traditional cutoffs anyway, get weaker. In that brutal decline he had 377 hits. So his prime years he had a bit over 1,500 hits. He hit 92 HRs in his mop up years. I know all guys have decline years when they pad, but Jones should barely have been in MLB much of that span. It wasn’t like he went from great to pretty good... he went from excellent to anchor. The only wobbliness I feel is defense. Was he so good it puts him in? I say no, but I get it for people who say yes. The one thing that you need to keep in mind with Jones, though, is that while yes, he fell off after age 29, you're only talking about the last quarter of his career because he broke into the majors at age 19. If we are talking about a guy who broke in at, say, 24, then he's falling off in his mid-30s and it doesn't seem quite as bad. He had a 10-year peak - this isn't a Johan Santana situation where he also had a very short peak (7 years in his case). It’s true. I’m really torn on him. I am a very soft no, with nary a complaint for yeses. And it makes for a really interesting case. I always wonder what I’d think if in game one of 2008 (cause 2007 was actually not terrible) he’d had Machado roll him and never played again. Would I be more for him (it’d certainly be easy to project better numbers than he ended up having)? Yet his counting stats would be really low for the Hall. Tricky case.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 21, 2021 12:09:11 GMT -5
I'd love to see the spotlight for Scott Rolen. He seems to have a lot of support here, but hadn't been on my radar. They heard you HOF Candidate Spotlight Scott Rolen 3B | 1996 - 2012 | PHI, STL, TOR, CIN Rookie of the Year 7x All-Star 2006 World Series 8x Gold Glove Silver Slugger Scott Rolen WAR: 70.1 Better than 63.8% of HOFers Black Ink: 0 Better than 0.0% of HOFers Gray Ink: 27 Better than 1.3% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 99.0 Better than 26.0% of HOFers JAWS: 56.85 Better than 46.7% of HOFers at 3B Scott Rolen enters his 4th year on the ballot, hoping to continue rising in vote share after hitting a new peak of 35.3% last year. Rolen was well known for his defensive contributions, frequently laying his body out to save plays. Statistically it shows, as by Fielding Runs among primary 3rd basemen, Rolen is 3rd all-time, only trailing Brooks Robinson and Adrian Beltre. Rolen is 1 of 7 players in MLB history to hit 300 home runs while accumulating at least 20 defensive Wins Above Replacement. That being said, he just barely got to major offensive milestones for HOF candidates, denoted by his lack of black ink on his profile and only one top-10 MVP finish in his career. If Rolen gets in it'll be on the case of offensive consistency combined with defensive excellence.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 21, 2021 12:19:46 GMT -5
I'm getting to the point where you can make a really convincing argument that nobody should go in this year. There's nobody that makes you scream out HOFer or at least not without a really strong, "Would be except for....."
I have a feeling that nobody will be inducted into the HOF this year. While Ortiz has that 2003 questionable positive test as a strike against him, I do think he'll go in next year on the first ballot. He'll probably get about 80%. I could be wrong about that and he goes in on the 2nd ballot, but either way it won't be a long wait for him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 21, 2021 12:23:10 GMT -5
Yeah it looks unlikely anyone gets in. Schilling is right on the cusp on public ballots (74.4%), but he's net -2 in returning voters, got a vote from one returning voter who didn't vote last year, and only is on 3 of 6 new ballots. Bonds and Clemens are in the 71% range, but are net 0 and -1, respectively, both got the returning non-vote, and are on 5 of the 6 new ones.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 21, 2021 12:38:40 GMT -5
I’m all for no one getting in — Small Hall!! — but the Hall itself would be miserable. Does that mean no hoopla? I feel like they would be desperate for at least one guy if only to have a ceremony.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 21, 2021 12:45:33 GMT -5
I’m all for no one getting in — Small Hall!! — but the Hall itself would be miserable. Does that mean no hoopla? I feel like they would be desperate for at least one guy if only to have a ceremony. Keep in mind that Jeter and Walker didn't get a ceremony yet.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2021 21:30:50 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight
Curt Schilling P | 1988 - 2007 | BAL, HOU, PHI, ARI, BOS 6x All-Star 3x World Series WS MVP NLCS MVP Curt Schilling WAR: 79.5 Better than 75.3% of HOFers Black Ink: 42 Better than 75.3% of HOFers Gray Ink: 205 Better than 72.8% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 171.0 Better than 64.7% of HOFers JAWS: 64.05 Better than 61.5% of HOFers at P Curt Schilling enters his 9th year on the ballot and has maintained a steady growth in vote share, reaching a peak of 70% last year. Schilling will be in baseball lore no matter what for his participation in the World Series victories of the 2000s Diamondbacks and Red Sox, the latter being enhanced by the occurrence of an actual red sock. Over the course of his postseason career, Schilling provided more Win Probability Added than any other starting pitcher in MLB playoff history. During his 2001 run for Arizona, he recorded 56 strikeouts, more than any other pitcher in a single postseason.
Among pitchers in the Expansion Era (since 1961) with at least 2000 innings pitched, Schilling has the best strikeout to walk ratio of anybody, still holding on despite threats from Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw who are pitching in a strikeout-friendlier era. Going by the pure strikeouts number, Schilling got to 300 in 3 different seasons, something only Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax have done in the Expansion Era.
During his career, Schilling finished 2nd place in Cy Young voting 3 times but never actually won the award. All in all, he's reached enough pitching milestones to score 171 on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, a scale where 130 indicates a case that would usually be a cinch for eventually getting in. Schilling has experienced an uphill climb in his candidacy due to a history of xenophobia, transphobia and support of violence against the press on social media.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 25, 2021 21:31:05 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight
Roger Clemens P | 1984 - 2007 | BOS, TOR, NYY, HOU MVP 7x Cy Young 2x Triple Crown 11x All-Star 2x World Series 7x ERA Title AS MVP ML PoY Roger Clemens WAR: 139.2 Better than 97.4% of HOFers Black Ink: 100 Better than 95.3% of HOFers Gray Ink: 320 Better than 92.3% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 331.5 Better than 95.3% of HOFers JAWS: 102.55 Better than 96.9% of HOFers at P Roger Clemens enters his 9th year on the ballot, reaching a new peak of 61% last year. Clemens owns 7 Cy Young Awards, more than any pitcher in MLB history. He got over the 10 WAR mark in 1990 and in 1997, making him and Randy Johnson the only pitchers with multiple seasons that valuable since 1980. He also finished with the pitching Triple Crown in 1997 and 1998, one of just 7 players to do that multiple times in their career; the other 6 are in the Hall of Fame.
Clemens' 143 adjusted ERA+ is 3rd-best among all-time pitchers with at least 3000 IP. And by pure strikeouts, Clemens is 3rd to Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson on the all-time leaderboard. There are many other pitching categories where Clemens shows up highly rated, so by statistics alone his case is as strong as any, supported by his Bill James HOF Monitor being 3rd highest among pitchers, and with everyone else in the top 21 already in the Hall. His case has been primarily hampered by his connection to performance-enhancing steroids, having been named in the Mitchell Report and investigated (and later acquitted) for perjury before a Congressional committee.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 25, 2021 22:06:42 GMT -5
Boy, the on-field case for Schilling is even stronger than I realized.
So now there are at least four people voting for Clemens but not Bonds and I assume it's some sort of joke?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2021 0:59:35 GMT -5
Boy, the on-field case for Schilling is even stronger than I realized. So now there are at least four people voting for Clemens but not Bonds and I assume it's some sort of joke? It's probably more of a personal grudge than anything else. Maybe four of those voters had a terrible experience dealing with Bonds who was usually a bigger headache to deal with for media members than Clemens was. I read that with 45% of the votes showing that Schilling has 75.3% of the vote. Schilling the baseball player is an absolute HOFer. If there hand't been any personality conflicts he probably would have gotten in sooner, but that made it a slow build, but now given what has happened with his abhorrent views on things, I don't know that he ever gets in. A lot of these votes were made prior to Jan 6th. The votes that don't show usually skew lower than the ones that do and I would anticipate that would knock Schilling under 75% and that's as close as it will get for him. I don't think you'll see him get a higher % next year. I think he turned even more people off with his support of the capitol insurrectionists. I know if I had a vote for him, I wouldn't do it - and that's a change from how I felt in the past. For me personally, almost anything short of murder, I would have supported a candidacy. I would have thought that I would have not supported cheaters, but given that they're might be HOFers already in the HOF that might have used but simply didn't get caught...makes it harder to exclude Clemens and Bonds. I still have problems with ever accepting Pete Rose for the HOF. Sosa makes it difficult because he was not only juicing but he was corking his bat. And Manny and Cano got busted twice after testing and A-Rod had his issues post-testing too. Vizquel's alleged violence, along with Andruw Jones, makes me not want to vote form them. I don't need my HOFers to be angels, but this year so many of these candidates make it hard to get behind them. And I don't think I'm the only one who feels this way. When they announce the voting for the HOF this afternoon, I have a strong feeling they will say that nobody was elected. And given the pandemic world we live in where flocking to Cooperstown isn't a good idea, it might be for the best.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 26, 2021 1:16:45 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale voted for Latroy Hawkins on his hall of fame ballot. He admitted it was because of his character and that he liked Hawkins but come on. Hes not the only writer who doesn't deserve a vote but that's ridiculous to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 26, 2021 12:17:57 GMT -5
HOF Candidate Spotlight
Barry Bonds LF | 1986 - 2007 | PIT, SFG 7x MVP 14x All-Star 8x Gold Glove 12x Silver Slugger 2x Batting Title 3x ML PoY Barry Bonds WAR: 162.8 Better than 98.7% of HOFers Black Ink: 69 Better than 90.2% of HOFers Gray Ink: 289 Better than 89.8% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 339.5 Better than 96.2% of HOFers JAWS: 117.73 Better than 100.0% of HOFers at LF Barry Bonds enters his 9th year on the ballot, hoping to make some late leaps from his peak vote share of 60.7%. Bonds earned the MVP Award 7 times in his career, with 2nd place being a 10-way tie at "just" 3 MVPs. By overall Wins Above Replacement, he is 4th all-time to Babe Ruth, Cy Young and Walter Johnson; by just position player WAR Bonds is number 1 on the leaderboard. He is also number 1 in all-time home runs, walks, and intentional walks. His place on the intentional walks leaderboard is especially a sign of how much opposing teams feared his bat, for his 688 intentional walks are more than double of 2nd place (currently Albert Pujols at 312).
Bonds not only dominates the traditional leaderboards, but advanced metrics as well. Adjusted OPS+ not only adjusts for park but also for the league environment, and despite the high-powered nature of the 1990s and 2000s, Bonds was still so dominant he finished with a career 182 OPS+, 3rd place on the all-time leaderboard behind Babe Ruth and Ted Williams. His bat gets a lot of attention, but his high WAR total is contributed to by his fielding contributions generally being above-average for his career. He finished with 174.8 Runs from Fielding, 2nd only to Carl Yastrzemski among primary left fielders.
Of course, the reason Bonds' case has struggled to reach the induction threshold is not based on the strength of his on-field case, but rather the implication of performance enhancing drugs being responsible for his all-time accolades. Bonds was one of the players attached to the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO) doping scandal, and he was also named in the Mitchell Report.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 26, 2021 12:38:10 GMT -5
Boy, the on-field case for Schilling is even stronger than I realized. So now there are at least four people voting for Clemens but not Bonds and I assume it's some sort of joke? It's probably more of a personal grudge than anything else. Maybe four of those voters had a terrible experience dealing with Bonds who was usually a bigger headache to deal with for media members than Clemens was. I meant 4 of the soxprospects voters, not the actual HOF voters. There's less divergence among ~200 media voters than the ~76 soxprospects voters!
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