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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2021 8:00:36 GMT -5
Rationality has left the building Really? So I'm supposed to be excited that the Red Sox GM gave-up up on Benintendi who, minus last year’s outlier 60 game season - which may be THE most aberrant outlier season of games for the whole sport in the last 100 years with the possible exceptions of 1943-45 - from 2017-19 was a starting MLB left fielder and hit .276/.350/.440 with 2.5 WAR and averaged 146 games played all for the "projectability" and "hidden value" a 26.5 yr old .01 WAR guy who, over the same period, averaged 26 games and 91 PAs and hit .240/.322/.421, plus an 22 year old "Big Body" pitcher with bad command who can't get out of A ball and PTBNL minor league spare parts who, according to Bloom via Speier, won't even make the top 10 of the Red Sox 20th ranked farm system? Go ahead, talk to me about rationality.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 11, 2021 8:08:08 GMT -5
Really? So I'm supposed to be excited that the Red Sox GM gave-up up on Benintendi who, minus last year’s outlier 60 game season - which may be THE most aberrant outlier season of games for the whole sport in the last 100 years with the possible exceptions of 1943-45 - from 2017-19 was a starting MLB left fielder and hit .276/.350/.440 with 2.5 WAR and averaged 146 games played all for the "projectability" and "hidden value" a 26.5 yr old .01 WAR guy who, over the same period, averaged 26 games and 91 PAs and hit .240/.322/.421, plus an 22 year old "Big Body" pitcher with bad command who can't get out of A ball and PTBNL minor league spare parts who, according to Bloom via Speier, won't even make the top 10 of the Red Sox 20th ranked farm system? Go ahead, talk to me about rationality. Your right in a lot of ways. However, what is clear is that Bloom saw no role now or in the future for Benni. That is what is driving the decision and he probably took the offer he felt was best. He will be judged on that decision in time.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Feb 11, 2021 8:15:23 GMT -5
Go ahead, talk to me about rationality. You order 5 pizzas and pay for them online. The delivery guy shows up at your door with two pizzas and tells you the other 3 are in the car, he couldn't carry them all at once. You proceed to scream at the delivery man that you paid for more than 2 pizzas and he and his company are all terrible. Who is being irrational in that sitiuation?
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Post by agastonguay13 on Feb 11, 2021 8:27:09 GMT -5
I guess what makes me feel different here than in the Pillar trade (for example) is that I don't see a legitimate reason for pushing off the return that way rather than bringing them into the fold immediately. That doesn't mean there isn't one, just that I don't see it yet. Wallace wasn't on the 60 man roster, so technically couldn't be traded. There don't seem to be those technicalities in place now. The one thing I can think of is that they're trying to get Benintendi as normal a start to the season as possible and let him start 2021 fresh in KC while the front offices continue to hash out the rest of the deal. End of the day, I don't like the deal simply for fanboy reasons. Benintendi was one of my favorite players, and I was legitimately hoping for a massive comeback this season.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 11, 2021 8:29:07 GMT -5
Go ahead, talk to me about rationality. You order 5 pizzas and pay for them online. The delivery guy shows up at your door with two pizzas and tells you the other 3 are in the car, he couldn't carry them all at once. You proceed to scream at the delivery man that you paid for more than 2 pizzas and he and his company are all terrible. Who is being irrational in that sitiuation? Well, those three pizzas in the car better be from Pepes. The two that have been delivered so far are cold Dominos’ pizza.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Feb 11, 2021 8:31:25 GMT -5
I guess what makes me feel different here than in the Pillar trade (for example) is that I don't see a legitimate reason for pushing off the return that way rather than bringing them into the fold immediately. That doesn't mean there isn't one, just that I don't see it yet. Wallace wasn't on the 60 man roster, so technically couldn't be traded. There don't seem to be those technicalities in place now. The one thing I can think of is that they're trying to get Benintendi as normal a start to the season as possible and let him start 2021 fresh in KC while the front offices continue to hash out the rest of the deal. End of the day, I don't like the deal simply for fanboy reasons. Benintendi was one of my favorite players, and I was legitimately hoping for a massive comeback this season. The exact reason for pushing off the naming of the players is because there was no minor league season last year, so this gives the Red Sox more time to evaluate the players on the list and cherry pick versus going off information that is at least 1-2 years old.
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Post by patford on Feb 11, 2021 8:38:52 GMT -5
OK, after a Bobby-Dalbec-like streak of home runs, Franchy Cordero is the first player Bloom has acquired where I have no idea what he was thinking.
The one thing that jumps out at me is that (in SSS) he has splits that indicate a serious problem hitting elite pitching.
795 OPS in low and medium leverage, 405 in high. Part of that is 775 bases empty, 682 with men on, but a lot has to be his 792 through the 7th inning, 497 afterwards. 759 OPS facing a starter the 2nd time, 671 the third time, and the 759 includes guys who didn't make it to the third trip, which is to say that the third TTO split is selected for quality pitchers, and even given this small sample 671 is a bad number. It's supposed to go up, of course. None of these splits would mean much by themselves ... but the three lines of evidence converge.
I will take a look at his defense and other Statcast numbers, but as of now this looks like the first acquisition that must be a "we can change / fix this guy and make him much better" experiment.
I do thank Bloom for giving me the opportunity to demonstrate that I don't automatically rubber-stamp every move he makes. But looking up the numbers of Andriese and Richards was exciting (Renfroe and Hernandez I had already targeted, and Ottavino I wanted badly two years ago). This ... not so much. Coca-Cola, fresh-squeezed grapefruit juice without pulp, and the next term in that series is ... room temperature water.
As to whether this was a move to clear room under the tax limit to re-sign JBJ, I'd love to think the latter is about to happen. And I noted earlier that signing JBJ to a multi-year deal and having Duran succeed Benintendi instead was a viable pathway. Maybe they like that better.
The only good argument for staying under the cap this year, and it's very good if it's correct, is that they already know they want to go over in 2023. That's a quick and easy research question, as I already have a spreadsheet that ranks teams by financial clout. Which of the teams at the bottom of that list have a star or potential star player with 2 years of control left? That rundown forthcoming soon. I also not only enjoy showing that I can change my mind when a better theory comes along, I enjoy changing my mind, period.
Of course, the first name you'd put on that list is ... Andrew Benintendi.
And here I was thinking this was you writing under an assumed name. www.pitcherlist.com/franch-ise-player-why-franchy-cordero-is-the-ultimate-sleeper/
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Post by costpet on Feb 11, 2021 8:50:45 GMT -5
JBJ is not coming back. They're holding his place for Duran.
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sarcasmo
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Post by sarcasmo on Feb 11, 2021 9:06:08 GMT -5
JBJ is not coming back. They're holding his place for Duran. This. Trading Beni was not an opening for JBJ. We need to accept that.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 11, 2021 9:21:45 GMT -5
Hate this move. Bloom just stripped the best outfield we ever had. I can still see Benny breaking out like Yelich did. Bloom needs to realize Boston is a big market team. He can spend a little! Quick question- what’s their payroll?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 11, 2021 9:22:41 GMT -5
Rationality has left the building Really? So I'm supposed to be excited that the Red Sox GM gave-up up on Benintendi who, minus last year’s outlier 60 game season - which may be THE most aberrant outlier season of games for the whole sport in the last 100 years with the possible exceptions of 1943-45 - from 2017-19 was a starting MLB left fielder and hit .276/.350/.440 with 2.5 WAR and averaged 146 games played all for the "projectability" and "hidden value" a 26.5 yr old .01 WAR guy who, over the same period, averaged 26 games and 91 PAs and hit .240/.322/.421, plus an 22 year old "Big Body" pitcher with bad command who can't get out of A ball and PTBNL minor league spare parts who, according to Bloom via Speier, won't even make the top 10 of the Red Sox 20th ranked farm system? Go ahead, talk to me about rationality. Ok, rationality would be not judging a trade before knowing the return But please, go on. You don’t look like an unreasonable child throwing a temper tantrum at all. Did I speak enough about rationality?
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Post by greenmonster on Feb 11, 2021 9:27:16 GMT -5
You order 5 pizzas and pay for them online. The delivery guy shows up at your door with two pizzas and tells you the other 3 are in the car, he couldn't carry them all at once. You proceed to scream at the delivery man that you paid for more than 2 pizzas and he and his company are all terrible. Who is being irrational in that sitiuation? Well, those three pizzas in the car better be from Pepes. The two that have been delivered so far are cold Dominos’ pizza. Pepe's is the BEST.....Della Carne please!
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 11, 2021 9:36:51 GMT -5
Maybe Rusney Castillo will finally get his shot ... oops.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 11, 2021 9:37:15 GMT -5
Hate this move. Bloom just stripped the best outfield we ever had. I can still see Benny breaking out like Yelich did. Bloom needs to realize Boston is a big market team. He can spend a little! I'm sick of the small market moves, like buying a reliever and prospect for $9mil, and having a $205mil payroll! It's sickening!
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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2021 9:42:56 GMT -5
Really? So I'm supposed to be excited that the Red Sox GM gave-up up on Benintendi who, minus last year’s outlier 60 game season - which may be THE most aberrant outlier season of games for the whole sport in the last 100 years with the possible exceptions of 1943-45 - from 2017-19 was a starting MLB left fielder and hit .276/.350/.440 with 2.5 WAR and averaged 146 games played all for the "projectability" and "hidden value" a 26.5 yr old .01 WAR guy who, over the same period, averaged 26 games and 91 PAs and hit .240/.322/.421, plus an 22 year old "Big Body" pitcher with bad command who can't get out of A ball and PTBNL minor league spare parts who, according to Bloom via Speier, won't even make the top 10 of the Red Sox 20th ranked farm system? Go ahead, talk to me about rationality. Ok, rationality would be not judging a trade before knowing the return But please, go on. You don’t look like an unreasonable child throwing a temper tantrum at all. Did I speak enough about rationality? My comments are based on the stated return plus Bloom's assertion that none of the other three "prospects" will be in the Sox top 10 prospects. Explain to me why I should have any affinity, excitement or agreement with this deal? And do pardon my "temper tantrum" when I see a valuable asset traded for a pile of dreck wrinkled PowerBall tickets. I've never been a quantity over quality guy.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 11, 2021 9:44:54 GMT -5
There’s no way to judge this trade reasonably until we find out who the final 3 players are. That being said, I’m fine with it. The Red Sox have more information about Benintendi than anyone. If they’re willing to trade him, that means they think the trade helps the team more than Benny does. It sucks, but that’s the only logical answer. As for the return, I can see their thinking. Cordero is toolsy as hell with power and speed with the ability to play all three outfield positions. The ceiling is there. Work with him and see what you can do. It’s the kind of high upside move that needs to be done. Winckowski has a chance to stick as a starter, but worst case scenario I see a cheap major league reliever in a year or two. He’s been young for every level he’s been at, so there’s plenty of time for development. The 3 PTBNLs will be the key. Based on the other pieces moving around, the Mets one will probably be the best of the three and could possibly be a pretty decent prospect. Not a top prospect, but a decent prospect nonetheless. I think Speier said all three would end up 11-20. So Bloom turned one player with 2 years of service time left into a major league outfielder with a high ceiling and 3 (I think) years of service time, a potential starter (probably reliever) that’ll slide somewhere in 20-30 if I had to guess, and three top 20 prospects. That’s the glass half full picture but that’s a damn good trade if it works out like that. Any time you can turn one player into 5 is a pretty good trade in my book. We’ve been on the other end of 4 for 1 trades and now we’re on this end. The quality of players isn’t the same, but the same principles apply. Overall, not bad.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Feb 11, 2021 9:45:05 GMT -5
Lots of people seem to think we traded away the Benintendi of 2017 or 2018, but the simple fact is the Red Sox don't make this deal if they believe he's still that player or likely to be again. Only time will tell if they're correct.
And while there seems to be a belief out there that a PTBNL is simply shorthand for "bag of balls or worse" (and most of the time it is), there's every reason to suspect there's still some significant value to come in this trade. It's frustrating, yeah, but I see no option but to reserve judgment until we actually know the full return...
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 11, 2021 9:47:06 GMT -5
Ok, rationality would be not judging a trade before knowing the return But please, go on. You don’t look like an unreasonable child throwing a temper tantrum at all. Did I speak enough about rationality? My comments are based on the stated return plus Bloom's assertion that none of the other three "prospects" will be in the Sox top 10 prospects. Explain to me why I should have any affinity, excitement or agreement with this deal? And do pardon my "temper tantrum" when I see a valuable asset traded for a pile of dreck wrinkled PowerBall tickets. I've never been a quantity over quality guy. If they think Benintendi is washed, they were right to grab value for him. They would know better than us.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 11, 2021 9:50:01 GMT -5
Of course we have to wait to see the PTBNLs (and I think scouting them in 2021 is very smart), but you'd have to assume there is still an OF and a 1b (one of whom might also play 2b) coming from the bargain bin. Franchy is not a good OF, but has speed and an arm and I think you can play him 40 games in RF esp. on the road to give Renfroe a break. I don't see many CF types out there so I assume the OF will be someone we can put in LF. That Beni could only play LF was limiting.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 11, 2021 10:09:09 GMT -5
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Feb 11, 2021 10:10:16 GMT -5
Maybe this has already been asked... so... Is there still any sort of 'hold' on trading players recently drafted? Does a team have to wait a certain period of time before trading someone they'd selected? Could that be why names weren't yet divulged?
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Post by bcsox on Feb 11, 2021 10:16:27 GMT -5
Cordero seems like he has too many holes in his game to be given a starting OF spot, if they truly plan on contending. Agree with those who suggest platoon split at best. High strikeout numbers, often injured history, and poor defensive metrics, are going to be a lot for the Red Sox to coach up. He is at the age, where it is difficult to suggest that he is raw and still learning the game. Not sad to see Beni go, other than its another piece of the championship team to be sent packing. Last year and the non competitiveness numbed me. That was so bad, that it altered my view of expecting the Red sox to win most nights. Now I just see things as "we are far away from winning, so if Beni wasnt going to be here in three years when hopefully this ship turns around, then best to get something now, rather than let him walk in free agency"
Eric Van is my favorite poster here, he suggested that they keep the payroll under the tax because they intend to spend in 2023. Can someone who is better at this than me explain why we wont be spending this year(assuming they are trying to compete) or in 2022. Wasnt the purpose of staying under and resetting the tax last year was they could spend over this year and the next few with a lesser penalty. Is it possible Than Henry has ordered a new mandate to be a team that always stays under unless they are say at the trade deadline and look like title contenders but need that one piece that is costly and would put them over.
Last request, again, its is a big ask, but I just saw the list of ESPN top 100 prospects on ESPN today. Obviously it is subjective, but Sox scored higher with the rating of Downs and Casas than I had seen elsewhere, but one of the reasons I looked was to check on the Mets system. I think they only had one guy, a catcher in the 80's or so. Would it be a huge take on for someone to look at probably their younger prospects, and see who among them, would likely land in our 11-20 range. Assuming we take Speir's word that none of the prospects coming back are going to be in out top 10, I know we all like to wishcast, but I would suggest not including those guys say the Mets number 5 guy, who may be coming off an injury, because we may want him, and if he is coming off an injury may be available, but if we got him, he would be in out top 10. Thanks for everyones truly awesome work on this board.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 11, 2021 10:19:53 GMT -5
Maybe this has already been asked... so... Is there still any sort of 'hold' on trading players recently drafted? Does a team have to wait a certain period of time before trading someone they'd selected? Could that be why names weren't yet divulged? WE finally get Pete Crow-Armstrong? More seriously, there's a couple of 20-year old live arms in the lower system for the Mets, and having a real season of GCL viewing probably helps pick the guys.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 11, 2021 10:24:30 GMT -5
[..] Can someone who is better at this than me explain why we wont be spending this year(assuming they are trying to compete) or in 2022. Wasnt the purpose of staying under and resetting the tax last year was they could spend over this year and the next few with a lesser penalty. [..] Not "the next few years." The next two. If the rules aren't changed, if we go over the limit in 2021 and 2022, we pay a big penalty on any overage in 2023. If you stay under in 2021, you pay smaller penalties for giving over in 2022 and 2023, then potentially bigger ones in 2024.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 11, 2021 10:27:01 GMT -5
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