SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
|
Post by incandenza on Feb 11, 2021 10:32:22 GMT -5
The complaints about how they're acting like a "small market team" are so reactive and silly. Dombrowski did exactly the thing you're calling on them to do, they maxed out payroll... and now here we are.
The truth is, Bloom can't act like a big-market GM, thanks to the position Dombrowski put the organization in. We'll see what he does after this season and next when more money comes off the books and he has some room to work with. It'll be interesting. Lots of people seem to think we traded away the Benintendi of 2017 or 2018, but the simple fact is the Red Sox don't make this deal if they believe he's still that player or likely to be again. Only time will tell if they're correct. And while there seems to be a belief out there that a PTBNL is simply shorthand for "bag of balls or worse" (and most of the time it is), there's every reason to suspect there's still some significant value to come in this trade. It's frustrating, yeah, but I see no option but to reserve judgment until we actually know the full return... Exactly this. The thing is, we don't really know what kind of player Benintendi is in 2021. The fact that he got traded suggests the Red Sox don't think too highly of him. Is their evaluation right? We'll see! If it is, great trade; if not, terrible trade. As much fun as it is to Have an Opinion, I don't know how anyone can really have an opinion about this trade until at least the summer.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 11, 2021 10:36:31 GMT -5
I like the way Bloom is building up the number of people he can use in future trades.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,838
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 11, 2021 10:43:24 GMT -5
There’s no way to judge this trade reasonably until we find out who the final 3 players are. That being said, I’m fine with it. The Red Sox have more information about Benintendi than anyone. If they’re willing to trade him, that means they think the trade helps the team more than Benny does. It sucks, but that’s the only logical answer. As for the return, I can see their thinking. Cordero is toolsy as hell with power and speed with the ability to play all three outfield positions. The ceiling is there. Work with him and see what you can do. It’s the kind of high upside move that needs to be done. Winckowski has a chance to stick as a starter, but worst case scenario I see a cheap major league reliever in a year or two. He’s been young for every level he’s been at, so there’s plenty of time for development. The 3 PTBNLs will be the key. Based on the other pieces moving around, the Mets one will probably be the best of the three and could possibly be a pretty decent prospect. Not a top prospect, but a decent prospect nonetheless. I think Speier said all three would end up 11-20. So Bloom turned one player with 2 years of service time left into a major league outfielder with a high ceiling and 3 (I think) years of service time, a potential starter (probably reliever) that’ll slide somewhere in 20-30 if I had to guess, and three top 20 prospects. That’s the glass half full picture but that’s a damn good trade if it works out like that. Any time you can turn one player into 5 is a pretty good trade in my book. We’ve been on the other end of 4 for 1 trades and now we’re on this end. The quality of players isn’t the same, but the same principles apply. Overall, not bad. THIS is how I see things.....and I really liked Beni! Cordero's talent has been known for a long time. Don't anyone sleep on this guy. If healthy, he could be a beast. I know he is 26 and has not yet established himself, but I believe it is because of injuries not because of talent. I may be one of the few, but I love how Bloom is going about his business. And did I tell you I like Beni a lot? If I was a betting man, I would almost guarantee eventually we will come out of this looking really good. I'm glad Bloom is playing it like he is. We mentioned, last year, over and over with Sale and Erod missing the season that things would get rocky. Bloom has gone about changing the organization in a very rational way. I love Verdugo. I believe Downs will be, at least, a solid player. Pivetta and Richards are just two pitchers he has acquired that actually excite me. Last year? Name one pitcher that excited you until Houck looked good? I really like the latest Rule 5 pick up. Everyone needs to give him a couple of years, and I think you will look back on his dealings as being brilliant. I see hope finally for a much stronger farm system, real depth, and some players I'mm looking forward to competing this year. In my opinion, this will be a VERY interesting season as we get closer and closer to using our financial muscle.....when it counts!!
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Feb 11, 2021 10:47:08 GMT -5
Cordero seems like he has too many holes in his game to be given a starting OF spot, if they truly plan on contending. Agree with those who suggest platoon split at best. High strikeout numbers, often injured history, and poor defensive metrics, are going to be a lot for the Red Sox to coach up. He is at the age, where it is difficult to suggest that he is raw and still learning the game. Not sad to see Beni go, other than its another piece of the championship team to be sent packing. Last year and the non competitiveness numbed me. That was so bad, that it altered my view of expecting the Red sox to win most nights. Now I just see things as "we are far away from winning, so if Beni wasnt going to be here in three years when hopefully this ship turns around, then best to get something now, rather than let him walk in free agency" I feel like I'm just in an alternate universe from 80% of the posters here. In my universe, the Red Sox were terrible last season (thanks largely to bad luck but also bad GMing by Dombrowski). Yet simply by tweaking the roster and adding crucial depth Bloom has the team projected for 87 wins, essentially in a 5- to 7-team scrum to be the second-best team in the AL, in a highly constrained down season, while continuing to build toward the future. And this season seems like it should be really fascinating to watch.
It's really nice over in this universe, guys! You should come over!
|
|
|
Post by worldbfree on Feb 11, 2021 10:48:11 GMT -5
Part of this is the recency bias coming off of Dave Dombrowski who is a strike fast strike hard GM. Bloom appears to be a more build on the fringes, build depth and youth followed by select large purchases. Dave's way gives instant gratification while Chaim’s is a multi year approach. Not a statement on this particular trade as I was looking for something different out of a Benintendi trade but there is potential for the unknown pieces to still make this a worthwhile trade. I am expecting a solid bounce back campaign from Benintendi this season. He is still a valuable piece for a club even when he’s not at his best. recency bias? Bad on me I guess for believing what I was told when Bloom was hired that this wasn’t a long-term rebuild. Meanwhile the team has gone from a one or two year turnaround to a solid 4-5year rebuild. Not what was advertised. I’m not big on historical revisionism, never mind the recency bias. on what basis is this a one or two year turnaround? The team doesn’t want to go over the tax threshold (much like the Yankees) and they have major pitching questions with Sale, Rodriguez, and Evoldi. If those starters don’t come back strong (and no one knows the answer) then this is a longer rebuild by default.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Feb 11, 2021 10:50:36 GMT -5
I will say with respect to the “Alex says none of the PTBNLs will be in our top 10” narrative...our top 10 is not that awful and a look at the KC and Mets top 30 show a bunch of young high ceiling pitchers in the late teens and 20s who were exciting a year and a half ago but kinda of a mystery where they are now (was working on third pitch at end of 2019, velocity was creeping up, and so on). A group of guys you probably feel more comfortable trading for.... you know ....later..like 3 to 5 months from now.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Feb 11, 2021 10:53:11 GMT -5
I will say with respect to the “Alex says none of the PTBNLs will be in our top 10” narrative...our top 10 is not that awful and a look at the KC and Mets top 30 show a bunch of young high ceiling pitchers in the late teens and 20s who were exciting a year and a half ago but kinda of a mystery where they are now (was working on third pitch at end of 2019, velocity was creeping up, and so on). A group of guys you probably feel more comfortable trading for.... you know ....later..like 3 to 5 months from now. I'm confused about how the PTBNL thing works. Let's say one of those guys breaks out in 2021. Can't the Mets just be like "Yeah never mind, we're keeping that one"?
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 16,484
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 11, 2021 10:54:24 GMT -5
Maybe, knowing that there's the possibility of the 2022 season being wiped out due to strike, Bloom figured that this is his last chance to extract full value (hopefully quality, not just quantity - to be determined) for Benintendi. There is the possibility that this would have been Benintendi's final year playing with the Sox anyways, so he didn't want to have him play out this year and potentially lose him for nothing.
That's one theory anyways.
Here's hoping that Franchy Cordero isn't Wily Mo Pena redux, that Winckowski is more than a reliever or #5 starter, and that they get something valuable among the 3 PTBNL, none of which are top 10 talents.
I'd be surprised if Franchy Cordero actually becomes a "core member" of the next highly competitive Red Sox team.
This is one of those cases where he's going out on a limb taking a gamble.
And this is what's hardest to see. I see Bloom always working the back ends or margins of the roster, but other than obtaining Verdugo and Downs in the Betts deal, it's hard to see who he's acquiring where you can say, "Yup this is our LF of the future or this is the future SS that will move Bogaerts over to 3b, or this guy Bloom got has potential to be a mid-rotation starter", etc.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Feb 11, 2021 10:56:00 GMT -5
Cordero seems like he has too many holes in his game to be given a starting OF spot, if they truly plan on contending. Agree with those who suggest platoon split at best. High strikeout numbers, often injured history, and poor defensive metrics, are going to be a lot for the Red Sox to coach up. He is at the age, where it is difficult to suggest that he is raw and still learning the game. Not sad to see Beni go, other than its another piece of the championship team to be sent packing. Last year and the non competitiveness numbed me. That was so bad, that it altered my view of expecting the Red sox to win most nights. Now I just see things as "we are far away from winning, so if Beni wasnt going to be here in three years when hopefully this ship turns around, then best to get something now, rather than let him walk in free agency" I feel like I'm just in an alternate universe from 80% of the posters here. In my universe, the Red Sox were terrible last season (thanks largely to bad luck but also bad GMing by Dombrowski). Yet simply by tweaking the roster and adding crucial depth Bloom has the team projected for 87 wins, essentially in a 5- to 7-team scrum to be the second-best team in the AL, in a highly constrained down season, while continuing to build toward the future. And this season seems like it should be really fascinating to watch.
It's really nice over in this universe, guys! You should come over!
But.... in our universe, we can be pleasantly surprised but not disappointed!
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 11, 2021 10:59:52 GMT -5
I will say with respect to the “Alex says none of the PTBNLs will be in our top 10” narrative...our top 10 is not that awful and a look at the KC and Mets top 30 show a bunch of young high ceiling pitchers in the late teens and 20s who were exciting a year and a half ago but kinda of a mystery where they are now (was working on third pitch at end of 2019, velocity was creeping up, and so on). A group of guys you probably feel more comfortable trading for.... you know ....later..like 3 to 5 months from now. I'm confused about how the PTBNL thing works. Let's say one of those guys breaks out in 2021. Can't the Mets just be like "Yeah never mind, we're keeping that one"? I'd assume that the Red Sox and Mets agreed on a list of names (maybe 3-5?) and the Red Sox can pick whichever they like after getting a look. I'd have to guess that there are different types of prospects on that list - maybe a safer prospect closer to the majors and couple that are farther away. Perhaps there is a condition where the Mets can protect one of those guys on the list. Probably will never know the full conditions though.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Feb 11, 2021 11:01:25 GMT -5
I will say with respect to the “Alex says none of the PTBNLs will be in our top 10” narrative...our top 10 is not that awful and a look at the KC and Mets top 30 show a bunch of young high ceiling pitchers in the late teens and 20s who were exciting a year and a half ago but kinda of a mystery where they are now (was working on third pitch at end of 2019, velocity was creeping up, and so on). A group of guys you probably feel more comfortable trading for.... you know ....later..like 3 to 5 months from now. I'm confused about how the PTBNL thing works. Let's say one of those guys breaks out in 2021. Can't the Mets just be like "Yeah never mind, we're keeping that one"? My limited understanding is that you have a small agreed upon group, like for the Mets two maybe three guys. You scout that group and pick before 6 months is up. So Mets can’t be like no, can’t have him, but on the same hand this will limit you to how many guys are on the agreed upon list. So depending on how big the group of players are..what’s the quality of the group.... Without knowing this just impossible to judge.
|
|
|
Post by tyler3 on Feb 11, 2021 11:02:14 GMT -5
What Vermont Sox said:)
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Feb 11, 2021 11:04:19 GMT -5
I'm confused about how the PTBNL thing works. Let's say one of those guys breaks out in 2021. Can't the Mets just be like "Yeah never mind, we're keeping that one"? My limited understanding is that you have a small agreed upon group, like for the Mets two maybe three guys. You scout that group and pick before 6 months is up. So Mets can’t be like no, can’t have him, but on the same hand this will limit you to how many guys are on the agreed upon list. So depending on how big the group of players are..what’s the quality of the group.... Without knowing this just impossible to judge. It does seem like a system with so many potential headaches. A guy explodes and Mets balk; a guy gets hurt and the Sox balk. I mean... obviously this is a done thing, so I’m sure it is worked out to the smallest codicil. I just imagine it is another source of GM heartburn.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Feb 11, 2021 11:12:10 GMT -5
I feel like I'm just in an alternate universe from 80% of the posters here. In my universe, the Red Sox were terrible last season (thanks largely to bad luck but also bad GMing by Dombrowski). Yet simply by tweaking the roster and adding crucial depth Bloom has the team projected for 87 wins, essentially in a 5- to 7-team scrum to be the second-best team in the AL, in a highly constrained down season, while continuing to build toward the future. And this season seems like it should be really fascinating to watch.
It's really nice over in this universe, guys! You should come over!
But.... in our universe, we can be pleasantly surprised but not disappointed! I am reminded, sometimes, that most Red Sox fans are New Englanders after all...
|
|
|
Post by borisman on Feb 11, 2021 11:28:02 GMT -5
Speier reporting that the Sox are getting three PTBNL. I wish they didn't already name the names they named.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Feb 11, 2021 11:39:12 GMT -5
My last thought on this....
People get so mad at those of us who respond negatively to these things, but looking at some of the media reaction, it is clear that we are actually taking a pretty typical position. So I would sooner cop to being uncreative than excessively pessimistic.
It is nice that there are folks who like the deal. But jumping on people who are taking the more conservative view that the return (as it is) doesn’t present a secure upside actually seems to be the more extreme position in this instance.
In the end, we see the same thing. Cordero has plus power, plus speed, plus whiffing ability. In his current state, he’s limited. You all think the Sox will tap his potential; I wonder why they didn’t do that with Beni — meaning no one has a magic wand to make a guy better. Sometimes you can; sometimes (far more often) you can’t — or we’d have retired Wily mo’s number already.
If they can get this guy to make contact, you all may end up being right. If.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Feb 11, 2021 11:41:42 GMT -5
The core of the trade, Beni for Cordero+, is kind of... whatever. Gain a year of control, but it’s a rawer player with a lower floor.
It really depends on your eval of Beni. If the Sox are pretty sure he’s cooked, it’s a decent trade. If he rebounds, they sold low and the trade is probably a loss.
The thing I’m questioning is the decision to pass on Lee. Would you rather have a top 10 OF prospect, or a swingman/bullpen guy + three backend top-20 guys?
I guess if you choose high upside guys for the PTBNLs, it gives you a better chance to hit on one.
If they go with safer picks, those 11-20 guys are probably AAAA types and I think you’d rather have the top-10 OF prospect.
|
|
|
Post by trajanacc on Feb 11, 2021 11:55:20 GMT -5
My last thought on this.... People get so mad at those of us who respond negatively to these things, but looking at some of the media reaction, it is clear that we are actually taking a pretty typical position. So I would sooner cop to being uncreative than excessively pessimistic. It is nice that there are folks who like the deal. But jumping on people who are taking the more conservative view that the return (as it is) doesn’t present a secure upside actually seems to be the more extreme position in this instance. In the end, we see the same thing. Cordero has plus power, plus speed, plus whiffing ability. In his current state, he’s limited. You all think the Sox will tap his potential; I wonder why they didn’t do that with Beni — meaning no one has a magic wand to make a guy better. Sometimes you can; sometimes (far more often) you can’t — or we’d have retired Wily mo’s number already. If they can get this guy to make contact, you all may end up being right. If. Baseball sportswriters are rarely experts on baseball. They have roughly the same expertise as the average message-board poster, just with better sources of information and superior writing skills. It's obvious Bloom is trying to find hidden value, so by definition many of his trades are going to seem like bad ones to people less informed. I'm willing to bet he is smarter than a bunch of writers.
|
|
|
Post by trajanacc on Feb 11, 2021 11:59:22 GMT -5
The Red Sox didn't necessarily "sell low" on Benintendi. Because of his early success and reputation as a prospect, and the fact that he has only been bad for about 1.5 seasons, there is still some hope that he could rebound and thus he still has some trade value. If he has another poor year, his value will drop even further and we would have actually "sold high" on him.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 11, 2021 12:01:04 GMT -5
My last thought on this.... People get so mad at those of us who respond negatively to these things, but looking at some of the media reaction, it is clear that we are actually taking a pretty typical position. So I would sooner cop to being uncreative than excessively pessimistic. It is nice that there are folks who like the deal. But jumping on people who are taking the more conservative view that the return (as it is) doesn’t present a secure upside actually seems to be the more extreme position in this instance. In the end, we see the same thing. Cordero has plus power, plus speed, plus whiffing ability. In his current state, he’s limited. You all think the Sox will tap his potential; I wonder why they didn’t do that with Beni — meaning no one has a magic wand to make a guy better. Sometimes you can; sometimes (far more often) you can’t — or we’d have retired Wily mo’s number already. If they can get this guy to make contact, you all may end up being right. If. Beating a horse to death is one thing. Everyday after going out and kicking him to make sure he's still dead just gets old.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Feb 11, 2021 12:01:34 GMT -5
The other thing to look at is that Cordero has a 0.372 xwOBA over the last 3 seasons. Last year, in 42 PA, his xwOBA was 0.426. The ML average is 0.321, so his quality of contact projects him to be a well above-average hitter.
His actual wOBA over those 3 seasons was only 0.324. If the Sox think they can help him get to some of that potential, he could be a very nice find.
|
|
|
Post by jbsox on Feb 11, 2021 12:04:55 GMT -5
I like the way Bloom is building up the number of people he can use in future trades. He is slowly but surely doing that with the Betts, Moreland, Pillar, Workman/Hembree, Ottavino, and now this trade. A theme I’m seeing is you eat a portion of contracts here and there to increase the prospect wealth coming back. I expect to see more of it this year, meanwhile I still think we have a chance to compete. It will be interesting to see if there is any drop off this year from Benintendi to a Cordero/Renfroe platoon or if we are now better off.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Feb 11, 2021 12:06:49 GMT -5
The more I look at this, the more I like it. Cordero’s Statcast numbers are excellent, and they’re trending upwards. IF those are real and sustainable, this could be a lateral upgrade from Beni + an extra year of control + 4 chances to hit on another major league player.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 11, 2021 12:08:38 GMT -5
Some people are speaking scornfully of the idea of getting PTBNL that would rank 11-20 for us. One interesting thing to do would be to look at this site’s rankings history page. Look at Devers at 18, Vasquez at 17, JBJ at 19, Margot at 19, Shaw at 18, Kopech at 14, Darwinzon at 15, Mata at 16, Duran at 15, Ward at 19, Jimenez at 16. Sure, dozens and dozens of stiffs and busts, but getting three more guys who might start at #16 and wind up in the top ten is a smart gamble.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Feb 11, 2021 12:26:32 GMT -5
I love this trade, if only for the drama in thread.
|
|
|