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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 11, 2021 15:24:55 GMT -5
Jacob Wallace just came back as a PTBNL for Pillar. Marco Hernandez, a useful player until career destroyed by shoulder injuries was a PTBNL in the felix Doubront trade.
Looking like Bloom is going after power arms of some type in every deal he makes to stash in the minors, a change from other regimes and something i like. Hope 1 of the PTBNL's is another of this type. 1 hopefully out of the bunch acquired will pay off. All (except MiLB rule 5 Ort) are very young and plenty of time to see and develop. Like getting extra draft picks last year and not wasted on those "4 pitch mix" rubbish types we saw for so many years.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 11, 2021 15:26:21 GMT -5
We know that with the Mets involvement, the Red Sox could have gotten OF Khalil Lee directly from the Royals, who is a #7, #8 prospect type. They preferred to get a pitcher and a PTBNL from the Mets. That suggests that Wink. + the Mets PTBNL > Lee (a #7, #8 prospect), right? Conceptually that's right, but with the overgloss of upside vs. readiness. The Mets apparently traded a lot for Lindor, and will need some more ready prospects to fill holes in the outfield. Lee fits there, but is somewhat redundant to Duran/Rosario for us (going off description). They could therefore be willing to trade a livlier but far away arm for Lee. The Sox, having gotten a filler in Cordeiro, and having Duran on the radar, didn't need a 23 YO outfield on the cusp, and having filled the upper system with more arms (Seabold, German, Wallace, Winkowski, Witlock), can go for upside and a future impact arm. In most cases, a sub-20 YO arm does not crack the top 10, even if it throws high nineties. If you lock them in as an option now, by mid-year, as one of the three kids produces and would be nearing the top 10, you get to claim him. So, technically not the Lee at #7 level now, but projectable to #7 or higher by mid year.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 11, 2021 15:29:53 GMT -5
We know that with the Mets involvement, the Red Sox could have gotten OF Khalil Lee directly from the Royals, who is a #7, #8 prospect type. They preferred to get a pitcher and a PTBNL from the Mets. That suggests that Wink. + the Mets PTBNL > Lee (a #7, #8 prospect), right? Conceptually that's right, but with the overgloss of upside vs. readiness. The Mets apparently traded a lot for Lindor, and will need some more ready prospects to fill holes in the outfield. Lee fits there, but is somewhat redundant to Duran/Rosario for us (going off description). They could therefore be willing to trade a livlier but far away arm for Lee. The Sox, having gotten a filler in Cordeiro, and having Duran on the radar, didn't need a 23 YO outfield on the cusp, and having filled the upper system with more arms (Seabold, German, Wallace, Winkowski, Witlock), can go for upside and a future impact arm. In most cases, a sub-20 YO arm does not crack the top 10, even if it throws high nineties. If you lock them in as an option now, by mid-year, as one of the three kids produces and would be nearing the top 10, you get to claim him. So, technically not the Lee at #7 level now, but projectable to #7 or higher by mid year. Lee would have probably been top 5 in this system. Tools are great just hasn't put it all together
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Post by agastonguay13 on Feb 11, 2021 15:44:47 GMT -5
So I guess my question here now is how do the three farm systems stack up against each other? If the guys coming back aren't top 10 in our system, what general range can we expect from the Mets and Royals? Would a KC prospect in their 21-25 range slot in to our system in the 11-15 range? 16-20? Same deal goes for the Mets. I know the teams involved have their own thoughts/rankings so our musings don't mean squat, I'm just impatient.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Feb 11, 2021 15:57:31 GMT -5
Are they whiners when they complain about the return on a deal that’s missing 3 full pieces? yes. Absolutely. Without question. It’s irrational. It’s dumb. That’s what people are calling out Now if you want to wax poetic about how being a fan IS being irrational by definition then by all means. I don’t subscribe to that theory Be sad about losing a member of the most recent title team all you want- that’s totally fair. I’m going to miss Benny. It doesn’t mean people have to shit on the deal when they literally don’t know more than half of the return you have your posting style...others have theirs. I am sorry...there is enough irrationality to go around, even from some that are giving Bloom all this rope. There has been almost no acknowledgement / thanks of his efforts of this thread. That is what i am talking about. Tangential...what do you think are the chances of one of the guys in this trade doing something like this....... Makes a play in 2018? 0% chance, it’s 2021
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 11, 2021 16:02:37 GMT -5
So I guess my question here now is how do the three farm systems stack up against each other? If the guys coming back aren't top 10 in our system, what general range can we expect from the Mets and Royals? Would a KC prospect in their 21-25 range slot in to our system in the 11-15 range? 16-20? Same deal goes for the Mets. I know the teams involved have their own thoughts/rankings so our musings don't mean squat, I'm just impatient. www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason-farm-systems-rankingsThat question is crazy hard because the rankings are for different things and the depth differs in each system. Example Josh Winckowski was 27th for the #7 farm system, moving to the 22nd system you'd expect he'd be much higher right? Instead he's rated #30 in our system. Toronto has better top guys, we have less top guys yet better depth farther down the top 30. You could go study all three, rank them into tiers 55 guys, 50, 45 rating etc if you wanted a better picture and ball park idea.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 11, 2021 16:10:30 GMT -5
I defy people to say these two guys are great gets. I smell having to tolerate another deluge of "now we can afford JBJ" posts about to erupt on the site.. And yeah.. What a pile on the return. Hopefully it was only about clearing more space, but for a Moreland, cheaper real backup OF etc.. Not a wasted expensive get. If JBJ is resigned then you get one of your favorite players back...
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 11, 2021 16:13:23 GMT -5
I smell having to tolerate another deluge of "now we can afford JBJ" posts about to erupt on the site.. And yeah.. What a pile on the return. Hopefully it was only about clearing more space, but for a Moreland, cheaper real backup OF etc.. Not a wasted expensive get. If JBJ is resigned then you get one of your favorite players back... Somehow a guy has to think of JBJ was to be signed it would have been announced already
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 11, 2021 16:18:47 GMT -5
So sounds like the Royals PTBNLs will be true lottery picks given that they are "lower" level prospects. I'm not sure how it would look if the rookie level leagues don't start until after A/A+/AA, but my guess is we'll know by the end of June what the return is.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 11, 2021 16:21:02 GMT -5
As a fan, I derive a lot of satisfaction from observing the development of players by my team, no matter where we are in a competitive cycle, whether on top or rebuilding. I respect teams like the Rays, Cleveland, and the A's who have shown the ability to maximize talent, sometimes in their farm systems and sometimes through reclamation projects. But we're blind if we don't recognize that the best teams are also successful at doing this. How important are guys like Urshela, Voit, and Hicks to the Yankees? How important have Turner, Taylor, and Muncy been to the Dodgers? Some of these players never were prime prospects and others (like Hicks) seemed to be busts. They were usually acquired in apparently minor trades.
I loved watching DD operate, even if it was very different from how I would have done so, and I'm ready to love CB. Thus far, I believe he's on the right track because he believes in scouting and player development. It's interesting in these posts to see how often people uses words like "plan" or use game analogies which assume that players are pieces to put in their places or move on a board. Good programs see players as human beings with the ability to grow and develop their talents. I would love to see an analysis of MLB teams in their ability to scout and teach. I assume that you would find some (probably quite a few) teams (and I could guess at a few of them) that are not good at all at scouting and development, but that all the good teams are at least decent in these areas and most are outstanding.
At the end of this past season, I felt optimistic for the future of the Sox because players at the ATS -- Houck, Pivetta, Dalbec -- seemed to make significant progress, and they added energy to the Sox at the end of the year. This said to me that the CB Sox will emphasize teaching, and to me that's the key to success. Players are not necessarily only what they are now. Most have the potential to unlock further talents or to use what they have in more effective ways. I love it when the Sox look at a player and say to themselves that they can make him better. (It goes without saying that there will be more failures than successes with these players, but you only need a few successes to improve your team significantly.)
I've enjoyed observing Bloom this winter but have withheld judgment (and will continue to do so). Still, I'd been waiting for weeks now for the Benintendi trade as the culminating event of the off-season. My heart leapt to my throat when I saw a trade had been made, but the excitement was soon followed by an intense feeling of disappointment, as with many of you. But then I started to read more and remembered that I had seen Cordero play a year or two ago, on a good day: he is a dynamic player (the red flags notwithstanding). Winckowski also seems to have an intriguing upside.
Even before the trade, it seemed that the Sox would add another outfielder, someone like JBJ, Pillar, or Marwin Gonzalez. So, let's imagine an outfield: Verdugo - JBJ/Pillar - Beni and then compare it to: Verdugo - JBJ/Pillar - Renfroe/Cordero. My guess is that the OF with Beni has a higher chance of being reasonably successful, but that the second OF has a higher ceiling because of the power potential.
I like Beni for the same reasons many of you do, but I'm eager to see what the new guys can bring to the Sox and curious about whether they can unlock more of their potential. And then there's another piece: we can hope that Winckowski and the three PTBNL's will become productive players in their own right. No doubt, this is a risky trade. I respect CB's guts for making it.
One final note: long-term contracts are an important issue going forward. The Sox's willingness to trade Beni shows he wasn't in their long-term plans the way I hope Devers and E-Rod are. His departure perhaps makes it easier for the FO to sign these foundational players to long-term contracts.
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Post by southernredsoxality on Feb 11, 2021 16:30:09 GMT -5
Are they whiners when they complain about the return on a deal that’s missing 3 full pieces? yes. Absolutely. Without question. It’s irrational. It’s dumb. That’s what people are calling out Now if you want to wax poetic about how being a fan IS being irrational by definition then by all means. I don’t subscribe to that theory Be sad about losing a member of the most recent title team all you want- that’s totally fair. I’m going to miss Benny. It doesn’t mean people have to shit on the deal when they literally don’t know more than half of the return you have your posting style...others have theirs. I am sorry...there is enough irrationality to go around, even from some that are giving Bloom all this rope. There has been almost no acknowledgement / thanks of his efforts of this thread. That is what i am talking about. Tangential...what do you think are the chances of one of the guys in this trade doing something like this....... Why does it have to be one of the guys in THIS trade though. Looking at it objectively, Verdugo has close to a 100% chance to have a better career than the Nintendo man at this point. Duran , although not as high as Verdugo, has a decent chance of providing as much value as JBJ if not more. Now Mookie's obviously a monster on his way to the HOF, but no team in baseball is gonna replace a generational player with another one, that's just not realistic. But for you guys who keep yelling about much of the 2018 team being gone, you have to admit that this lineup has a chance of being much better at 2b and 1b, and they're already far better at 3b and C because both of those guys are much better players now than they were back then. Now I'm not expecting all of this things to materialize this year, but I think the 2021 Red Sox have a legit chance at being a WS contender when you consider all the things mentioned above plus the fact that we're finally gonna be able to spend money in free agency. If the team this year goes 81-81 then so be it, it's called a bridge year for a reason.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 11, 2021 16:34:19 GMT -5
So I guess my question here now is how do the three farm systems stack up against each other? If the guys coming back aren't top 10 in our system, what general range can we expect from the Mets and Royals? Would a KC prospect in their 21-25 range slot in to our system in the 11-15 range? 16-20? Same deal goes for the Mets. I know the teams involved have their own thoughts/rankings so our musings don't mean squat, I'm just impatient. www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason-farm-systems-rankingsThat question is crazy hard because the rankings are for different things and the depth differs in each system. Example Josh Winckowski was 27th for the #7 farm system, moving to the 22nd system you'd expect he'd be much higher right? Instead he's rated #30 in our system. Toronto has better top guys, we have less top guys yet better depth farther down the top 30. You could go study all three, rank them into tiers 55 guys, 50, 45 rating etc if you wanted a better picture and ball park idea. This doesn't quite work as the years are different (2021 isn't updated for all yet) - but it should give the gist: blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/blogs.fangraphs.com/top-43-prospects-kansas-city-royals/blogs.fangraphs.com/top-31-prospects-new-york-mets/So Lee would be 5-10 for Red Sox. If we look at 40 FV players (my guess what they're getting back) - it would be a 17-33 ranked Red Sox player. A player in KC's 13-31 range A player in the 10-24 range This makes the Red Sox system look better than the other two - this is a result of the both the Red Sox depth (but not top-end talent) and the lack of update for 2021 for Royals and Mets.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Feb 11, 2021 16:54:33 GMT -5
I don't think they are getting another Devers. They are getting three chances at a Devers or Vasquez or Shaw. Speier says: "The three players to be named are unlikely to rank among the top 10 Red Sox prospects or in the top 100 in the industry, according to a major league source, but are expected to be potential big leaguers who add depth to the farm system in need of replenishment." We know that with the Mets involvement, the Red Sox could have gotten OF Khalil Lee directly from the Royals, who is a #7, #8 prospect type. They preferred to get a pitcher and a PTBNL from the Mets. That suggests that Wink. + the Mets PTBNL > Lee (a #7, #8 prospect), right? Lots to think on both sides here. Maybe. But it might also just be *different.* Lee is far higher rated than Cordero, but I can see preferring the latter for the Sox. Lee looks like a speedster, which might reproduce Duran too closely. But if 2/3 of the outfield is Duran and Verdugo, having a power hitter makes more sense. So I am not sure it has to be reduced to better/worse so much as what you need/not what you need. I see what you mean about Lee and Duran. But the Red Sox were not choosing between Lee and Cordero. The Royals gave up Cordero and Lee and 2 PTBNLs for Beni. The Red Sox could have taken that. Instead of Lee they took Wink and the Mets' PTNBL. They get Cordero either way.
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Post by manfred on Feb 11, 2021 16:55:10 GMT -5
you have your posting style...others have theirs. I am sorry...there is enough irrationality to go around, even from some that are giving Bloom all this rope. There has been almost no acknowledgement / thanks of his efforts of this thread. That is what i am talking about. Tangential...what do you think are the chances of one of the guys in this trade doing something like this....... Why does it have to be one of the guys in THIS trade though. Looking at it objectively, Verdugo has close to a 100% chance to have a better career than the Nintendo man at this point. Duran , although not as high as Verdugo, has a decent chance of providing as much value as JBJ if not more. Now Mookie's obviously a monster on his way to the HOF, but no team in baseball is gonna replace a generational player with another one, that's just not realistic. But for you guys who keep yelling about much of the 2018 team being gone, you have to admit that this lineup has a chance of being much better at 2b and 1b, and they're already far better at 3b and C because both of those guys are much better players now than they were back then. Now I'm not expecting all of this things to materialize this year, but I think the 2021 Red Sox have a legit chance at being a WS contender when you consider all the things mentioned above plus the fact that we're finally gonna be able to spend money in free agency. If the team this year goes 81-81 then so be it, it's called a bridge year for a reason. I like Duran and hope you are right, but I don’t cavalierly say a guy has a decent chance to more valuable than JBJ. That seems a bit disparaging— or like a jinx on a young player! JBJ was an all star, a gold glove, averaged nearly 4 WAR a year from 2016-2018 and was second in WAR last year to Verdugo by .1. It is easy to forget in the abyss of last season that Jackie was really, really good. Again, I am excited for Duran, but he could be a very good player and never be as good as JBJ — who probably gets less credit than he deserves because his streakiness was so infuriating.
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Post by manfred on Feb 11, 2021 16:55:53 GMT -5
Maybe. But it might also just be *different.* Lee is far higher rated than Cordero, but I can see preferring the latter for the Sox. Lee looks like a speedster, which might reproduce Duran too closely. But if 2/3 of the outfield is Duran and Verdugo, having a power hitter makes more sense. So I am not sure it has to be reduced to better/worse so much as what you need/not what you need. I see what you mean about Lee and Duran. But the Red Sox were not choosing between Lee and Cordero. The Royals gave up Cordero and Lee and 2 PTBNLs for Beni. The Red Sox could have taken that. Instead of Lee they took Wink and the Mets' PTNBL. They get Cordero either way. Ah, yeah, I see what you mean. Fair enough.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 11, 2021 17:15:35 GMT -5
I would never agree to a deal like that if I were the Mets unless everyone on the list was minor league roster filler.[/div]
That’s how PTBNL works...... whether you would agree to it or not.
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Post by unitspin on Feb 11, 2021 17:41:42 GMT -5
This was a bad trade no matter how you slice it. Hope Benny rebounds and makes it look even worse. Never sell low on player with potential.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 11, 2021 17:46:18 GMT -5
David Ortiz was traded as a PTBNL after his age 20 season in A ball. Had a .322 average and .901 OPS.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 11, 2021 17:49:55 GMT -5
This was a bad trade no matter how you slice it. Hope Benny rebounds and makes it look even worse. Never sell low on player with potential. You have zero basis for saying that unless you're clairvoyant. ...none of us do.
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Post by lennsakata on Feb 11, 2021 18:05:56 GMT -5
So sounds like the Royals PTBNLs will be true lottery picks given that they are "lower" level prospects. I'm not sure how it would look if the rookie level leagues don't start until after A/A+/AA, but my guess is we'll know by the end of June what the return is. Was hoping Tyler Gentry would be in the mix and he is probably considered a low level guy...drafted last year out of Alabama and didn’t get into any games obviously...probably heading to low A. Not sure they would need to see more of a guy like him unless it’s to verify his scorching, abbreviated 2020 looks like real growth and not a SSS. Yefri Del Rosario has an interesting guy that could definitely use some eyes this spring before you’d want him to be a part Of a package. He’s ranked 22nd on MLB Pipeline but missed all of 2019 but pitched in fall instructs after the season. Lots of raw potential there that you’d feel better about seeing a few times around. With Singer, Kowar, Lynch and Lacy all having high floors and ceilings, I have to think they might have better luck plucking value from their pitching prospects in the 10-30 range.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 11, 2021 18:09:40 GMT -5
All - I've deleted much of the back-and-forth personal attacks. Remember to follow the forum ground rules, which includes being civil. Thanks.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 11, 2021 18:12:13 GMT -5
So, what's the thought: Did Benintendi's bulking up to trying to hit for power cause his decline?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Feb 11, 2021 18:12:38 GMT -5
They are going to be 3 high upside guys who are far away
Btw this is one way to find high end starting pitching. Because teams don’t trade away MLB ready SP prospects unless they’re getting elite MLB talent back. So maybe you go and land a Robert Dominguez and watch him develop into a top of the rotation guy in 2025.
Pumping quality depth into every level of the system is so important though- it allows you the freedom to do pretty much whatever you want. You get enough talented pitching in the lower minors and eventually some of them are going to hit
I got my eyes on Ben Hernandez from KC, that may be reaching though
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 11, 2021 18:29:04 GMT -5
They are going to be 3 high upside guys who are far away Btw this is one way to find high end starting pitching. Because teams don’t trade away MLB ready SP prospects unless they’re getting elite MLB talent back. So maybe you go and land a Robert Dominguez and watch him develop into a top of the rotation guy in 2025. Pumping quality depth into every level of the system is so important though- it allows you the freedom to do pretty much whatever you want. You get enough talented pitching in the lower minors and eventually some of them are going to hit I got my eyes on Ben Hernandez from KC, that may be reaching though Robert Dominguez also caught my eye, sign me up if he's on that list of players to pick from.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 11, 2021 18:34:38 GMT -5
They are going to be 3 high upside guys who are far away Btw this is one way to find high end starting pitching. Because teams don’t trade away MLB ready SP prospects unless they’re getting elite MLB talent back. So maybe you go and land a Robert Dominguez and watch him develop into a top of the rotation guy in 2025. Pumping quality depth into every level of the system is so important though- it allows you the freedom to do pretty much whatever you want. You get enough talented pitching in the lower minors and eventually some of them are going to hit I got my eyes on Ben Hernandez from KC, that may be reaching though It's going to be hard to pinpoint the potential PTBNLs, but Yefri Del Rosario seems interesting if he's an option.
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