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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by Guidas on May 23, 2021 13:52:12 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on May 23, 2021 13:58:53 GMT -5
It feels like more and more obscure “w” or “yw” stats are the last refuge of a bad hitter. Franchy was 3-5 May 6th. Then... 0 for his next 16. One could look at that day and say “progress!” Or... maybe he hit some hard shots in that Ohfer stretch. But nonetheless, since May 6, he is 4-28. .143/.200/.250. Compare that line to his last 2 years: 49 games, 130 ABs, .185/.243/.300. In short, he has been bad recently, and he has been bad since calendar year 2019. Maybe he can’t get a rhythm with injuries, Covid etc. But he needs to go down and play well at *any* level to show he *can.* Maybe as much for himself. No, no, no. If you hit the ball 102 mph with a 6 degree launch angle, that's not good, that's fucking great. If you happen to hit it directly at a fielder, that does not make it bad, that makes it unlucky.
I do not cherry-pick this stuff. Everyone is raving about how hot Dalbec is now and I've pointed out that he's been lucky.
The great tragedy for teams like the Red Sox is that there are now virtually no teams that think the way you do, and look only at results instead of the quality of the action. Because the teams that look at quality of action instead of results kicked the old-schoolers asses all the way to the trash heap.
If Nick Pivetta had been this unlucky in his first few games this year, you'd be saying precisely the same things.
Thing is, I don’t believe in luck. So when we say a guy got “unlucky,” what we are saying is... he’s out. And yeah... if it is once, twice... you can say “get ‘em next time slugger.” But eventually you just... aren’t good. Put it this way: do you think if you keep throwing Franchy out there all year, his numbers are going to come around? If so, we are seeing two different guys. (Put differently again in the language of luck: when a guy has such poor hitting numbers, how do you know his lasers weren’t themselves *good* luck?) As I’ve said before, a guy his size who swings hard every swing is going to make some loud outs. I’m not surprised he’s hit some lasers. As for the butt kicking: seems sort of debatable. I mean, Dodgers last year, Sox 2018, Astros 2017, Cubs 2016... these teams were juggernauts. So you can say they had “new school” approaches, but they were old school ass-kicking, get-the-best-player rosters. Nats.... I don’t know.
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 23, 2021 14:01:24 GMT -5
I mean if he watched any of mid-2018-2020 he would know that's not close to what was happening
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,912
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2021 17:16:04 GMT -5
I do intend to reply to manfred at some point. But more Franchy numbers are better, no?
Of the 264 players with 35 PA starting May 5, Franchy is 37th (86th %) in HardHit%. But 11 of his 14 hard hits (95+ EV) were over 100 mph. So ... Statcast won't give you PA as a number of opportunities if you search for balls hit 100+. But they will give you total pitches seen, and as a measure of pure hitting skill, that's probably even better.
Players at the top of this leaderbord, percentage of pitches seen that were hit 100+ mph, fall neatly into two groups by total pitches -- 47 and fewer, and 106+. So we'll look at guys who have seen 100+ pitches. Franchy is 9th out 314 for percentage of pitches hit 100+, with 8.2%. That's 97th percentile.
There are 10 guys at 8.0%+. Here are the top 3 in average EV on those hits. 109.5 Vlad Guerreo, Jr. (24, 9.0% of pitches) 107.9 Franchy Cordero (11, 8.2%) 107.3 Fernando Tatis, Jr. (14, 11.5%)
Given his deficit in childhood hitting instruction, that's even more impressive.
I'm going to copy this from the game thread for posterity: There are now three hitters in the Statcast era that have hit a HR of 118+ that went 460' or more. Stanton has done it three times and Judge has done it twice. At 118.6, this was the second hardest-hit HR of the last three years.
If you're looking for HRs that can match or top both the 118.6 mph and the 474', there have been just two, one each by the aforementioned. The launch angle was 29 degrees. For homers with an LA that high or higher, this was Beamonesque: the current leader board goes 117.0, 116.6, 116.4, 116.3, 116.1. The gap between 1 and 2 now equals that between 2 and 11.
It also did a Beamon on EV for a homer by a LHB. The leader board there is 117.5, 117.4, 117.1, 117.1, 116.9. And only 1 of those went more than 426' -- the last of them, 469', by Franchy. The gap between today's Franchy and #2 Gallo equals the gap between 2 and 10.
Among LHB, there have now been six homers with 116.1 or higher EV, and 455'+. Franchy now ties Joey Gallo with three each.
So, if we measure raw power by the the ability to hit long homers as hard as conceivable, often enough to show up on a leaderboard, there are four guys that jump out at you in MLB since 2017:
Stanton Judge Franchy Gallo.
You should immediately think, one of these things is not like the other. That's right: 6'6", 6'7", 6'3", 6'5". 245, 282, 226, 250.
It shouldn't be possible to hit the ball that hard at his size, especially given that all of these guys presumably have done strength training to the max. This is why the Sox got him and why they've been patient.
Finally, those focusing on Franchy's results are forgetting the overall offense this year.
Franchy has the 13th worst luck of the 223 guys with 30 PA vs. RHP in this time stretch. Because of that, his overall batting line against them is .219 / .242 / .438. Terrible, huh?
Well, actually, no. He ranks 143rd in wOBA. That's 36th percentile. (Kris Bryant in this stretch has a very similar line, right down to the bad luck.)
Given that he's a saved a run on defense in limited PT over the season, that's a pretty good second-division starter's bat in LF, this year. You wouldn't send him to AAA based on what he's done in this stretch even if he hadn't been unlucky. But he has been; his xWOBA vs. RHP is 52nd, 77th percentile.
BTW, he's only had two balls that were hit hard and were likely hits, that were outs. His bad luck has mostly been a complete absence of grounders that found a hole or fly balls or soft liners that dropped in, until yesterday. That's inspired me design a study (in my head) to see what kinds of "luck,"if any, are predictive. I know that hitting fly balls down the lines instead of to CF shows up as "luck" but is likely a skill. Something to do next off-season.
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Post by manfred on May 24, 2021 17:51:57 GMT -5
I do intend to reply to manfred at some point. But more Franchy numbers are better, no?
Of the 264 players with 35 PA starting May 5, Franchy is 37th (86th %) in HardHit%. But 11 of his 14 hard hits (95+ EV) were over 100 mph. So ... Statcast won't give you PA as a number of opportunities if you search for balls hit 100+. But they will give you total pitches seen, and as a measure of pure hitting skill, that's probably even better.
Players at the top of this leaderbord, percentage of pitches seen that were hit 100+ mph, fall neatly into two groups by total pitches -- 47 and fewer, and 106+. So we'll look at guys who have seen 100+ pitches. Franchy is 9th out 314 for percentage of pitches hit 100+, with 8.2%. That's 97th percentile.
There are 10 guys at 8.0%+. Here are the top 3 in average EV on those hits. 109.5 Vlad Guerreo, Jr. (24, 9.0% of pitches) 107.9 Franchy Cordero (11, 8.2%) 107.3 Fernando Tatis, Jr. (14, 11.5%)
Given his deficit in childhood hitting instruction, that's even more impressive.
I'm going to copy this from the game thread for posterity: There are now three hitters in the Statcast era that have hit a HR of 118+ that went 460' or more. Stanton has done it three times and Judge has done it twice. At 118.6, this was the second hardest-hit HR of the last three years.
If you're looking for HRs that can match or top both the 118.6 mph and the 474', there have been just two, one each by the aforementioned. The launch angle was 29 degrees. For homers with an LA that high or higher, this was Beamonesque: the current leader board goes 117.0, 116.6, 116.4, 116.3, 116.1. The gap between 1 and 2 now equals that between 2 and 11.
It also did a Beamon on EV for a homer by a LHB. The leader board there is 117.5, 117.4, 117.1, 117.1, 116.9. And only 1 of those went more than 426' -- the last of them, 469', by Franchy. The gap between today's Franchy and #2 Gallo equals the gap between 2 and 10.
Among LHB, there have now been six homers with 116.1 or higher EV, and 455'+. Franchy now ties Joey Gallo with three each.
So, if we measure raw power by the the ability to hit long homers as hard as conceivable, often enough to show up on a leaderboard, there are four guys that jump out at you in MLB since 2017:
Stanton Judge Franchy Gallo.
You should immediately think, one of these things is not like the other. That's right: 6'6", 6'7", 6'3", 6'5". 245, 282, 226, 250.
It shouldn't be possible to hit the ball that hard at his size, especially given that all of these guys presumably have done strength training to the max. This is why the Sox got him and why they've been patient.
Finally, those focusing on Franchy's results are forgetting the overall offense this year.
Franchy has the 13th worst luck of the 223 guys with 30 PA vs. RHP in this time stretch. Because of that, his overall batting line against them is .219 / .242 / .438. Terrible, huh?
Well, actually, no. He ranks 143rd in wOBA. That's 36th percentile. (Kris Bryant in this stretch has a very similar line, right down to the bad luck.)
Given that he's a saved a run on defense in limited PT over the season, that's a pretty good second-division starter's bat in LF, this year. You wouldn't send him to AAA based on what he's done in this stretch even if he hadn't been unlucky. But he has been; his xWOBA vs. RHP is 52nd, 77th percentile.
BTW, he's only had two balls that were hit hard and were likely hits, that were outs. His bad luck has mostly been a complete absence of grounders that found a hole or fly balls or soft liners that dropped in, until yesterday. That's inspired me design a study (in my head) to see what kinds of "luck,"if any, are predictive. I know that hitting fly balls down the lines instead of to CF shows up as "luck" but is likely a skill. Something to do next off-season.
I eagerly await the luck study. To say hitting a ball down the lines is one or the other is reductive. For one thing, pulling and going the opposite way are very different. So *which* line? And there are liners opposite field that are beautiful pieces of hitting, and there are (“luck”?) guys overwhelmed, behind, who just get it in play. One can likely distinguish by sight, but how does that get reflected in a statistic (I mean other than watching every at-bat and marking to the best you can “on purpose” vs “just trying to survive”)? So, for example, Miller’s homerun yesterday looked like “just trying to survive.” Of course, then one might say — a guy who homers trying to survive is a good hitter! Or one could say — how can you be overwhelmed by an apparently debilitated ERod? It ends in the realm of subjectivity.
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Post by fenwaymabe on May 24, 2021 18:36:49 GMT -5
Hitting balls hard is great and all, but Franchy needs at bats. He has missed soooo much time in the past few seasons due to injury I would just like him to get consistent at bats in AAA. You can do all the cage work you want, but nothing compares to game action. He needs to develop a consistent 2-strike approach. The swing and miss in his game is a little scary. Come play off time, when you are facing elite pitching, nothing can sink a rally quicker than a strike out. Staying with the big club is doing him no favors if he's only getting in there once every three or four games. He's super talented, he just needs more reps and a bigger focus on contact. When he hits it, the ball will travel.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,873
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Post by cdj on May 24, 2021 21:21:53 GMT -5
Hitting balls hard is great and all, but Franchy needs at bats. He has missed soooo much time in the past few seasons due to injury I would just like him to get consistent at bats in AAA. You can do all the cage work you want, but nothing compares to game action. He needs to develop a consistent 2-strike approach. The swing and miss in his game is a little scary. Come play off time, when you are facing elite pitching, nothing can sink a rally quicker than a strike out. Staying with the big club is doing him no favors if he's only getting in there once every three or four games. He's super talented, he just needs more reps and a bigger focus on contact. When he hits it, the ball will travel. I agree with this entirely, I think it’s a perfect post. It’s quite clear why the Sox took a gamble on him (to go with 4 other prospects)- he has a rare ability to impact the ball. We just have to unlock a way for him to do it consistently and I don’t think that going to happen unless he gets consistent reps Plus I want 500 foot polar park bombs
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 25, 2021 6:43:15 GMT -5
Personal attacks will not be tolerated. Knock it off.
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Post by Guidas on May 25, 2021 9:23:46 GMT -5
I do intend to reply to manfred at some point. But more Franchy numbers are better, no?
Of the 264 players with 35 PA starting May 5, Franchy is 37th (86th %) in HardHit%. But 11 of his 14 hard hits (95+ EV) were over 100 mph. So ... Statcast won't give you PA as a number of opportunities if you search for balls hit 100+. But they will give you total pitches seen, and as a measure of pure hitting skill, that's probably even better.
Players at the top of this leaderbord, percentage of pitches seen that were hit 100+ mph, fall neatly into two groups by total pitches -- 47 and fewer, and 106+. So we'll look at guys who have seen 100+ pitches. Franchy is 9th out 314 for percentage of pitches hit 100+, with 8.2%. That's 97th percentile.
There are 10 guys at 8.0%+. Here are the top 3 in average EV on those hits. 109.5 Vlad Guerreo, Jr. (24, 9.0% of pitches) 107.9 Franchy Cordero (11, 8.2%) 107.3 Fernando Tatis, Jr. (14, 11.5%)
Given his deficit in childhood hitting instruction, that's even more impressive.
I'm going to copy this from the game thread for posterity: There are now three hitters in the Statcast era that have hit a HR of 118+ that went 460' or more. Stanton has done it three times and Judge has done it twice. At 118.6, this was the second hardest-hit HR of the last three years.
If you're looking for HRs that can match or top both the 118.6 mph and the 474', there have been just two, one each by the aforementioned. The launch angle was 29 degrees. For homers with an LA that high or higher, this was Beamonesque: the current leader board goes 117.0, 116.6, 116.4, 116.3, 116.1. The gap between 1 and 2 now equals that between 2 and 11.
It also did a Beamon on EV for a homer by a LHB. The leader board there is 117.5, 117.4, 117.1, 117.1, 116.9. And only 1 of those went more than 426' -- the last of them, 469', by Franchy. The gap between today's Franchy and #2 Gallo equals the gap between 2 and 10.
Among LHB, there have now been six homers with 116.1 or higher EV, and 455'+. Franchy now ties Joey Gallo with three each.
So, if we measure raw power by the the ability to hit long homers as hard as conceivable, often enough to show up on a leaderboard, there are four guys that jump out at you in MLB since 2017: Stanton Judge Franchy Gallo. You should immediately think, one of these things is not like the other. That's right: 6'6", 6'7", 6'3", 6'5". 245, 282, 226, 250. It shouldn't be possible to hit the ball that hard at his size, especially given that all of these guys presumably have done strength training to the max. This is why the Sox got him and why they've been patient. Finally, those focusing on Franchy's results are forgetting the overall offense this year. Franchy has the 13th worst luck of the 223 guys with 30 PA vs. RHP in this time stretch. Because of that, his overall batting line against them is .219 / .242 / .438. Terrible, huh?
Well, actually, no. He ranks 143rd in wOBA. That's 36th percentile. (Kris Bryant in this stretch has a very similar line, right down to the bad luck.) Given that he's a saved a run on defense in limited PT over the season, that's a pretty good second-division starter's bat in LF, this year. You wouldn't send him to AAA based on what he's done in this stretch even if he hadn't been unlucky. But he has been; his xWOBA vs. RHP is 52nd, 77th percentile.
BTW, he's only had two balls that were hit hard and were likely hits, that were outs. His bad luck has mostly been a complete absence of grounders that found a hole or fly balls or soft liners that dropped in, until yesterday. That's inspired me design a study (in my head) to see what kinds of "luck,"if any, are predictive. I know that hitting fly balls down the lines instead of to CF shows up as "luck" but is likely a skill. Something to do next off-season.
I wonder if we packaged all this awesome and sent it to Flushing, if the Mets are desperate enough to give a top 10 prospect right now for Franchy? nypost.com/2021/05/24/steve-cohen-asks-for-help-with-spiraling-mets-in-full-blown-injury-crisis/
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Post by Guidas on May 25, 2021 10:39:02 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on May 25, 2021 10:43:52 GMT -5
I wonder why....
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 10:51:14 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 25, 2021 10:53:26 GMT -5
Yeah, the trade doesn't look so hot at the moment, but if Duran takes LF or Santana handles it well enough. I mean Santana won't have the OBP anywhere near Benintendi but his SA should be a lot better....but the point is if either of them are reasonably productive, then Benintendi has been replaced, correct? And then you factor in the return. Cordero not so good? Ok. Still leaves you with 4 players who can amount to something worthwhile. We know Winckowski is pitching well in AA and is pitching well enough that he could become a useful starter, but there are three other prospects coming back, one that should be a really good prospect coming from the Mets and two coming from a really rich farm system in the Royals where the Sox might be able to pluck something unexpectedly good. The point is it's too soon to say that Benintendi's loss this year is going to ultimately hurt them. If Santana is a dud (which is possible) and Duran struggles upon coming up (which is possible) and none of the prospects the Sox get amount to much (which is possible but way too early to determine) then yeah, terrible trade. But hopefully the loss of Benitendi is only hurting the team right now and by midseason hopefully he won't be missed if Duran comes up and whacks some homers and steals some bases and hits well enough, and then you "profit" if they get some prospects who pan out.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 10:55:01 GMT -5
FWIW, I do believe Ian got a good report on Winckowski.
And again, I've heard the rest of the return, at least from NYM, will be much better than Winckowski.
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 25, 2021 11:04:21 GMT -5
Forgive me if this has been discussed, but is there a confirmed date where the PTBNL will be selected by? Do we think the draft date would a factor in the selection date?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,873
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Post by cdj on May 25, 2021 11:07:43 GMT -5
Leading the league in CS, that’s interesting
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Post by ramireja on May 25, 2021 11:12:13 GMT -5
Forgive me if this has been discussed, but is there a confirmed date where the PTBNL will be selected by? Do we think the draft date would a factor in the selection date? I believe Gammons has floated something out there along the lines of '1 month after the start of the MiLB season' which would probably be sometime around the end of next week. I take Gammons' reporting with a grain of salt though and if we think that the PTBNL is operating under the normal 6 month rule....then we wouldn't need to made a decision until August I believe.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 25, 2021 11:42:54 GMT -5
That is some pretty frank commentary by Cora. Doesn't really come across as malicious, but it comes real close a line that a lot of managers might not come near, talking about a player on another team. He managed him so there is that, but Benni is also still playing in the league and i am not sure he should be acknowledging what he feels other players think they did wrong.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,873
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Post by cdj on May 25, 2021 11:47:00 GMT -5
Or could it be the corner outfielder wanted to add power so he could get paid big money and messed everything up I lean towards that, especially when factoring in Cora’s comments I don’t really miss him all that much tbh. I liked him a lot when he was here and root for his success but he is going to need a new deal soon and right now he’s showing to be slightly a tick above league average at the plate for a LF (good average/eye, limited pop), not a good defender, and not a good runner. That’s not exactly something I’m chomping at the bit to lock up. I still have no problems with the deal and Winckowski is already piquing my interest
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,207
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Post by radiohix on May 25, 2021 11:54:57 GMT -5
That is some pretty frank commentary by Cora. Doesn't really come across as malicious, but it comes real close a line that a lot of managers might not come near, talking about a player on another team. He managed him so there is that, but Benni is also still playing in the league and i am not sure he should be acknowledging what he feels other players think they did wrong. I mean even his actual manager in KC said basically the same thing recently
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Post by incandenza on May 25, 2021 12:17:51 GMT -5
Uhh, these quotes read exactly like steroid-era euphemisms for guys who were on steroids:
I dunno, maybe he just hit the weight room a bunch... In any event, should we infer that a player listening to the training advice of his agent rather than the team was one reason they traded him away?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 25, 2021 14:23:08 GMT -5
That is some pretty frank commentary by Cora. Doesn't really come across as malicious, but it comes real close a line that a lot of managers might not come near, talking about a player on another team. He managed him so there is that, but Benni is also still playing in the league and i am not sure he should be acknowledging what he feels other players think they did wrong. I mean even his actual manager in KC said basically the same thing recently Right. But that is his manager talking. If you were Benintendi and the team and coach you played for and traded you said the you knew you were wrong about something you did while playing for them......he is getting close to a line that i don't think he should get near. At least, for my taste. But I dont think Cora meant it in a malicious way. Just seems to particular an answer to give about a guy not on his roster anymore. Edit: my first post was worded weirdly at the end. The issue is Cora saying, "he knows he was wrong". That is what i dont think is proper
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Post by Guidas on May 25, 2021 15:48:16 GMT -5
FWIW, I do believe Ian got a good report on Winckowski. And again, I've heard the rest of the return, at least from NYM, will be much better than Winckowski. If the Sox get one of Lacy, Lynch or Witt from KC or Alvarez, Allan or Mauricio from the Mets, I'll be ready to do a full mea culpa.
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shagworthy
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Posts: 1,483
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Post by shagworthy on May 25, 2021 16:04:00 GMT -5
FWIW, I do believe Ian got a good report on Winckowski. And again, I've heard the rest of the return, at least from NYM, will be much better than Winckowski. If the Sox get one of Lacy, Lynch or Witt from KC or Alvarez, Allan or Mauricio from the Mets, I'll be ready to do a full mea culpa. I posted in the trade rumors post, but I'll sort of re-post here. Could we further improve the likelihood of a good return by adding Chavis or Marwin, or both? The Mets are desperate right now for warm bodies who can play multiple positions with all of their injuries. Now seems like the time to strike to take advantage of that for our own future, no? Chavis is blocked basically by Dalbec, Casas eventually, Marwin, Kiké, Arroyo, and even Franchy who the Sox want to give a bigger leash. Marwin is a defensive wizard who's bat has been imo so-so, but I think the Mets will take so-so over the dregs they have remaining, especially because I think his versatility still makes him > Pillar, even if he hits .230 the rest of the way.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 16:14:32 GMT -5
Forgive me if this has been discussed, but is there a confirmed date where the PTBNL will be selected by? Do we think the draft date would a factor in the selection date? I believe Gammons has floated something out there along the lines of '1 month after the start of the MiLB season' which would probably be sometime around the end of next week. I take Gammons' reporting with a grain of salt though and if we think that the PTBNL is operating under the normal 6 month rule....then we wouldn't need to made a decision until August I believe. It's the six-month rule, although who knows if they'll take all 6. It's not like Zach Bryant where there's nothing to be gained by getting him sooner - you get a guy in and get him with your coaches, say a pitcher with changeup whisperer Nick Green. I'd say by the end of June most likely.
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