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2021 Lineup / Batting Order
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 14, 2021 15:31:21 GMT -5
This is potentially problematical.
Guys who project to be above MLB average in SA, the number being points above:
116 Devers 93 Martinez 83 Bogaerts 65 Renfroe 43 Verdugo 43 Dalbec 32 Cordero 27 Hernandez 18 Arroyo 7 Vazquez
That's good! Let's do the same thing for OBP, which is more important, shall we?
37 Bogaerts 31 Verdugo 28 Martinez 19 Devers 6 Plawecki 4 Gonzalez
At no point did Earl Weaver say that baseball success came down to "pitching, defense, and solo homers." But right now, after the obvious top 4 guys, we have either 4 or 5 guys who can hit the ball out of the park and nobody, really, who can set the table for the rest of them. And in fact, the 5, 6, and 9 spots in a batting order ideally all have good OBP.
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Post by ponch73 on Feb 14, 2021 16:04:45 GMT -5
How does your OBP analysis change when you take into account platoons?
For example, Renfroe's career OBP is 71 points higher against lefties. Cordero's is 83 points higher against righties.
Cordero vs RHP .322 / .463 / .786 Renfroe vs LHP .339 / .573 / .912
The combination of the two feels like an above average left fielder.
C Vazquez / Plawecki 1B Dalbec 2B Gonzalez SS Bogaerts 3B Devers LF Cordero / Renfroe CF Hernandez RF Verdugo DH Martinez
With the exception of C and 1B, this seems like a lineup that can produce baserunners at an above average clip.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 14, 2021 20:54:08 GMT -5
How does your OBP analysis change when you take into account platoons? For example, Renfroe's career OBP is 71 points higher against lefties. Cordero's is 83 points higher against righties. Cordero vs RHP .322 / .463 / .786 Renfroe vs LHP .339 / .573 / .912 The combination of the two feels like an above average left fielder. C Vazquez / Plawecki 1B Dalbec 2B Gonzalez SS Bogaerts 3B Devers LF Cordero / Renfroe CF Hernandez RF Verdugo DH Martinez With the exception of C and 1B, this seems like a lineup that can produce baserunners at an above average clip. I see Kiki at 2B Verdugo at least starting the year in CF I also don’t see a typical platoon in LF. Will be moving parts and rotations. But I’d say when Renfroe starts ( 75%plus ) it will be in RF. It’s much harder to predict Cordero as far as games but I agree he will be in LF. I think we can expect lots of different lineups. Potentially a different one most every night. May see JD in the field some. Especially if both Cs hit like last season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 14, 2021 22:06:16 GMT -5
How does your OBP analysis change when you take into account platoons? For example, Renfroe's career OBP is 71 points higher against lefties. Cordero's is 83 points higher against righties. Cordero vs RHP .322 / .463 / .786 Renfroe vs LHP .339 / .573 / .912 The combination of the two feels like an above average left fielder. C Vazquez / Plawecki 1B Dalbec 2B Gonzalez SS Bogaerts 3B Devers LF Cordero / Renfroe CF Hernandez RF Verdugo DH Martinez With the exception of C and 1B, this seems like a lineup that can produce baserunners at an above average clip. Really good point if they're platooning. Every projected lineup has them in the two corners. I see you're buying into my version of things.
Things are even better if JBJ returns for a year, which I think becomes more likely with every day he's unsigned.
That platoon gives you a fifth good hitter and I think Dalbec gives you a 6th.
Speaking of which, I gotta do my Dalbec study first, and see if his dramatic improvement in K rate the last third of his Venti had any meaning. Then I'll do my Table-Set and Knock-in Metrics, and do / update my Pitch-Aroud / Challenge splits, and put up some possible lineups.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 14, 2021 22:30:36 GMT -5
To start the season:
Against righties
RF Verdugo SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez C Vazquez LF Cordero 1B Dalbec 2B Gonzalez CF Hernandez
Against lefties:
CF Hernandez SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez RF Verdugo C Vazquez LF Renfroe 1B Dalbec 2B Arroyo
By June I would anticipate this against righties:
CF Duran SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez RF Verdugo C Vazquez LF Cordero 1B Dalbec 2B Hernandez (hits the bench against top notch righties in favor of Gonzalez)
For this lineup to really work well, JDM must bounce back, Dalbec needs to progress, and the Cordero/Renfroe platoon must produce. If Duran can come up and contribute that would be ideal as it would limit Cora to choosing between Hernandez and Gonzalez against righties rather than playing both regularly.
If a number of those scenarios don't pan out then the Red Sox offense will be a lot less lethal than imagined and the Sox don't have the pitching to support a so-so lineup.
This is why I picked the Sox 79-83. I like the idea of giving Cordero a chance to mash. But will he? Or will another injury get him or will he return to striking out way too much? Same kind of question with Dalbec. Will Hernandez have too many ABs against righties? Will Marwin Gonzalez, a mediocre player, get too many ABs? And of course how far will JD Martinez bounce back?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 15, 2021 9:21:43 GMT -5
I don't know that we're going to see true platoons with this roster. There are too many permutations given the flexibility of the guys they've signed. I don't even think it's as simple as a Cordero/Gonzalez platoon enabled by Hernandez going back and forth to the outfield. I think it's going to be a lot of playing match-ups, factoring in way more than pitcher handedness. Repertoire, the pitcher the Red Sox have on the mound, etc.
At any rate, here's what the primary starting lineup would look like, per RSS.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 15, 2021 11:51:37 GMT -5
Renfroe-Dalbec-Cordero looks like a brutally whifftastic sequence. With so many low-OBP/high-SA guys I foresse many solo dingers. Not really my favorite brand of baseball...
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Post by manfred on Feb 15, 2021 12:00:24 GMT -5
Unless I’m overlooking him, not one of those scenarios has Marwin Gonzalez starting. Is there no scenario that has him starting and at least equalling the run production of him not starting? If not... if he’d slide in at a lower run average.... I kinda wonder what he’s for. I know, I know... depth, etc. But.... it just seems odd.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 15, 2021 12:30:48 GMT -5
Renfroe-Dalbec-Cordero looks like a brutally whifftastic sequence. With so many low-OBP/high-SA guys I foresse many solo dingers. Not really my favorite brand of baseball... Kind or reminds me of the 1987 Indians in which Bill James in his baseball abstract explains how it was possible for Brook Jacoby to bat .300 with 32 homers but only have 69 RBIs, with the point being that he was stuck behind of bunch of low OBP power hitters like Joe Carter, Cory Snyder, Mel Hall, etc (obviously he should have been higher up in the order), and that the offense would be stagnant past a certain point in the batting order with only one way to score and nobody capable of getting on base for somebody else to drive in. That's kind of what concerns me, too. A bunch of one trick ponies in the lineup. Hopefully Dalbec will hit enough and walk enough so that might alleviate that kind of concern. Same cross the fingers type of stuff for the Cordero/Renfro platoon. Sometimes offenses are built with OBP guys who hit into too many DPs and wind up stranding too many baserunners, but that said, an offense like that is a heckuva lot tougher to pitch to that a team of power guys who don't get on base enough, and I would think they'd score more runs even if nothing is more efficient than those 4-baggers. Like you said, a bunch of solo HRs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 15, 2021 12:34:52 GMT -5
Unless Iâm overlooking him, not one of those scenarios has Marwin Gonzalez starting. Is there no scenario that has him starting and at least equalling the run production of him not starting? If not... if heâd slide in at a lower run average.... I kinda wonder what heâs for. I know, I know... depth, etc. But.... it just seems odd. Until Duran is ready, I'd be more surprised if Gonzalez didn't get a lot of starts. I can't imagine the Sox want Renfroe to play every day or that they'd prefer Verdugo in CF/Renfroe in RF every day as opposed to Verdugo playing the bulk of RF and Kiké Hernandez playing the bulk of CF, which opens up 2b for Gonzalez - until Duran comes up to play CF, and when that happens, that's what would cut into Gonzalez's time - as it's obvious they're not paying $14 million over 2 years for Hernandez to not play regularly - so Gonzalez would slide back to 2b. And of course if there's an injury, he's the most likely to come off the bench to start anyways even if Duran comes up and takes over CF.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 15, 2021 12:44:51 GMT -5
Dalbec can work a count, I’m not too concerned about him- in the minors he’s shown the ability to put up quality OBP’s with substandard averages
Hopefully that SSS of Cordero slashing his whiff rate can hold up- not to the extremes it did in the SSS, but maybe settling in somewhere between where he was at last season and his career average. If so I don’t think we have to worry about OBP too much with him
If Renfroe plays predominantly against lefties you wouldn’t worry too much about him either
If Cordero and Renfroe are both full time regulars they do at least offset each other with the platoon splits- against lefties Dalbec and Renfroe should get on, against righties Cordero (and possibly Dalbec) should get on
There’s honestly such a wide range of possibilities Idk what to expect- I imagine we see Marwin in the lineup around those spots too
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Post by jdog2020 on Feb 15, 2021 13:14:47 GMT -5
Quick thoughts:
1) Verdugo (CF) 2) Vasquez (C) 3) Bogaerts (SS) 4) Devers (3B) 5) Martinez (DH)
On most days, this should be the top 5 hitters in the lineup, regardless of R/L Splits. The rest is a crapshoot, with many interesting permutations. I'll go with this for now to play the game:
6) Dalbec (1B) 7) Hernandez (2B) 8) Renfroe (RF) 9) Cordero (LF)
Long time reader. Looking forward to seeing new faces. Miss baseball!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 15, 2021 15:34:04 GMT -5
Unless I’m overlooking him, not one of those scenarios has Marwin Gonzalez starting. Is there no scenario that has him starting and at least equalling the run production of him not starting? If not... if he’d slide in at a lower run average.... I kinda wonder what he’s for. I know, I know... depth, etc. But.... it just seems odd. Fairly certain he was running it on the projected regularish 9.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 15, 2021 15:41:41 GMT -5
It's fun to plug names into a possible line-up and begin to dream -- or worry. Is it a problem that the line-ups we imagine here all seem so much stronger on the top, 1-5, than the bottom, 6-9? This was Eric's concern at the beginning of this thread. Here are a few observations:
1) I often go back and look at the numbers for the 2018 team as an example of statistics from an outstanding team. Those Sox led MLB in AVG, OBP, SA, & OPS. 1-5 in the line-up for that team was great, partially because Mookie and JDM had monster years, but at 6-9, the team was surprisingly mediocre, even weak, with a combined OBP for those spots somewhere around .295 and an OPS somewhere around .670. Relative to other teams, they were in the bottom third at 6, 7, & 8 but 3rd at 9 with a .312 OBP and a .704 OPS. My guess is that if we compare the projections for Dalbec, Hernandez et al. to those of players projected to hit at the same spot in the order, they will actually look pretty good. That said, one of the trademarks of most really good teams, like the Dodgers and Yankees right now, is that they put pressure on your pitching up and down the line-up. That should be the goal, and let's hope that the Sox figure out a way to maximize line-up strength over the course of the year.
2) We might still sign Mitch or even JBJ, but it seems less likely every day. This is perhaps wishful thinking on my part, but I hope this signifies that the Sox want to leave a path for Duran and Downs to get prime-time PT this year. (I saw 10 or so at bats by Duran during the Caribbean series, and he was impressive, especially when hitting from behind in the count and against lefties. True, the pitchers were more crafty, grizzled veterans than flame-throwing youngsters, but he performed at a high level against experienced pros.) If they don't re-sign Mitch, we might also wonder if they're leaving a path for Casas to make it to the Show this year. In the minors (and this is also true of Dalbec for the most part), Duran, Downs, and Casas all have put up OBP marks in the .350-.360 range. In July and beyond, they might make the actual line-up stronger by lowering the strike-out rates.
3) On a different tangent, I suspect that Bloom has found it easier to deal Beni and (perhaps) not re-sign JBJ because the Sox have a strong contingent in the high minors pushing for playing time. I imagine he hopes that they'll give people like us another wave of homegrown talent to appreciate.
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Post by manfred on Feb 15, 2021 15:44:41 GMT -5
Unless I’m overlooking him, not one of those scenarios has Marwin Gonzalez starting. Is there no scenario that has him starting and at least equalling the run production of him not starting? If not... if he’d slide in at a lower run average.... I kinda wonder what he’s for. I know, I know... depth, etc. But.... it just seems odd. Fairly certain he was running it on the projected regularish 9. Right. But maybe I’m imagining a different process to these projections from what they took. That is, you’d run all kinds of different lineups and then see which comes out most productive. In that case I would imagine running a simulation of a few lineups that have MG getting a good deal of time — just because there does appear to be so much flexibility — that is, since it is not clear who will be playing where, when, test the gamut of options. Or maybe, if that was not worth it, it returns me to being a little surprised he is already being projected to get less playing time than I thought he would fet when they signed him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 15, 2021 15:47:30 GMT -5
He clearly was just running batting ORDER, not optimizing the lineup.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 15, 2021 16:42:56 GMT -5
I don't know that we're going to see true platoons with this roster. There are too many permutations given the flexibility of the guys they've signed. I don't even think it's as simple as a Cordero/Gonzalez platoon enabled by Hernandez going back and forth to the outfield. I think it's going to be a lot of playing match-ups, factoring in way more than pitcher handedness. Repertoire, the pitcher the Red Sox have on the mound, etc. At any rate, here's what the primary starting lineup would look like, per RSS. Chris once again had it basically dead on. This will be a rotating lineup. What is very interesting in these optimmized lineups is KIKI batting 3? I have no stats to back it, but I have this feeling that he is going to break out In a big way. I also see him playing mostly 2B
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Post by jdog2020 on Feb 15, 2021 17:05:29 GMT -5
There is no chance JD is batting #2 in the lineup this coming year. Likewise, CV is not hitting 9th. Thankfully, Cora is a lot smarter than Chris and this tool.
I already laid out the 1-5 for you. We shall see about the rest..
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 15, 2021 17:16:41 GMT -5
He clearly was just running batting ORDER, not optimizing the lineup. Yeah, it's an old tool now, based on OBP and SLG, and I used overall projected numbers, not L/R splits. It's just for kicks, not some in-depth analysis. However, when I ran it before last season it spit out Verdugo and Martinez 1-2 as well, and the Sox opened with Martinez batting 2nd, and Verdugo quickly moved to leadoff. The Sox moved JD out of the 2-spot after a week, but it turns out he was just bad last year, not lineup spot specific bad. I hope they try it again. As for the question about Hernandez 3rd... The Book has a great lineup chapter and is probably the standard today. The gist of it is broken down here. As long as your best hitters are batting in the 1-2-4-5 slots, the rest is whatever and probably where the mix and match guys will hit. Also, I presume Vazquez will hit like 6th, not 9th, though statcast doesn't like him much and 5 projection systems have him averaging a 91 wRC+ this season.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Feb 15, 2021 19:11:03 GMT -5
Vazquez 9th makes sense. Decent OBP guy who makes "productive outs" for the top of lineup guys.
Avoid low OBP, high K guy.
Unless it's a pitcher and you want to delay pinch-hitting as long as possible Edit: for interleague play, I looked up hitting of Richards, Perez, Pivetta, Seabold. They are all dreadful hitters.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 15, 2021 19:45:56 GMT -5
Whoa whoa whoa this is a PG website, sir or ma'am
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 15, 2021 20:05:52 GMT -5
Whoa whoa whoa this is a PG website, sir or ma'am
Well, well,well, Cora is smarter than YOU anyway Not sure about this Tool. I am big fan of Maynard, though.
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Post by jdog2020 on Feb 16, 2021 8:34:58 GMT -5
Whoa whoa whoa this is a PG website, sir or ma'am
Well, well,well, Cora is smarter than YOU anyway Not sure about this Tool. I am big fan of Maynard, though. I wasn't referring to anyone as a tool. I was using it to describe the graphic. In terms of smarts, I'm good. I like looking at the chart, but you have to use reason as well.
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Post by jdog2020 on Feb 16, 2021 8:42:24 GMT -5
Whoa whoa whoa this is a PG website, sir or ma'am Okay. I will take note that people have thin skin around here. All of my future posts will be G or PG.
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Post by trajanacc on Feb 16, 2021 8:58:39 GMT -5
Well, well,well, Cora is smarter than YOU anyway Not sure about this Tool. I am big fan of Maynard, though. I wasn't referring to anyone as a tool. I was using it to describe the graphic. In terms of smarts, I'm good. I like looking at the chart, but you have to use reason as well. Arguably the whole point of using metrics is to uncover information and solutions that probably don’t make sense to the average person.
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