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2021 Lineup / Batting Order
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 17, 2021 22:02:36 GMT -5
I will admit to misreading "this" as "his". Hence my post. Just thought it was funny wording that had an unintentional double meaning. But was wrong. Mea culpa.
Just a joke. Will remember italics in the future.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 21, 2021 21:58:02 GMT -5
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Post by costpet on Feb 22, 2021 9:19:48 GMT -5
Unfortunately, their lineup doesn't scare anybody, no matter how you line them up.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 22, 2021 11:18:55 GMT -5
Whoa whoa whoa this is a PG website, sir or ma'am Okay. I will take note that people have thin skin around here. All of my future posts will be G or PG. Not thin skin....courteous and respectful My ex-wife said I needed thicker skin.....I told I did not need it....goodbye
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 22, 2021 15:48:04 GMT -5
Unfortunately, their lineup doesn't scare anybody, no matter how you line them up. I would wager that the Sox will be top 5 in scoring. They could have 2 silver slugger awards at ss and third. They are not as bad as people are thinking, IMO.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 22, 2021 16:32:21 GMT -5
Unfortunately, their lineup doesn't scare anybody, no matter how you line them up. I would wager that the Sox will be top 5 in scoring. They could have 2 silver slugger awards at ss and third. They are not as bad as people are thinking, IMO. That's without considering Verdugo, or the fact that only four teams got more production out of their catchers last "season" than the Red Sox. We're also blowing off Dalbec and what he might bring to the table. And maybe Renfroe will actually like blasting away at the wall. If Martinez comes out of his funk, that's just one more piece for the lineup. One thing is for certain, left-handed pitching is going to have a much harder time against this team than they have recently. I'm honestly at a loss to figure out where people are coming from given actual results. We could all assume that every player is going to fall through a hole in the ground I suppose. Or we could project they might play to the performance we've seen.That just might make them even better than the potent offense we saw last year. Once again, it's not about the hitting. It's all about the pitching.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 22, 2021 16:39:15 GMT -5
Unfortunately, their lineup doesn't scare anybody, no matter how you line them up. I would wager that the Sox will be top 5 in scoring. They could have 2 silver slugger awards at ss and third. They are not as bad as people are thinking, IMO. The key to the offense, beyond the obvious JDM comeback, is Dalbec and Franchy. You know you've got an excellent first 4 if JDM bounces back at all, and 7 through 9 is much better than average with Vazquez and (vs. RHP) two of Kiké, Marwin, Arroyo, and Renfroe depending on matchups. If Dalbec and Franchy can fill the 5 and 6 holes doing damage, that's a great lineup.
People grossly over-estimate the top-to-bottom strength of most contenders' lineups. We've been spoiled by watching the Sox and focusing on the Yankees as our rivals.
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Post by manfred on Feb 22, 2021 16:46:17 GMT -5
I would wager that the Sox will be top 5 in scoring. They could have 2 silver slugger awards at ss and third. They are not as bad as people are thinking, IMO. The key to the offense, beyond the obvious JDM comeback, is Dalbec and Franchy. You know you've got an excellent first 4 if JDM bounces back at all, and 7 through 9 is much better than average with Vazquez and (vs. RHP) two of Kiké, Marwin, Arroyo, and Renfroe depending on matchups. If Dalbec and Franchy can fill the 5 and 6 holes doing damage, that's a great lineup.
People grossly over-estimate the top-to-bottom strength of most contenders' lineups. We've been spoiled by watching the Sox and focusing on the Yankees as our rivals.
Eric, you are the man to ask: thoughts on JDM’s future? Last year is a total aberration in terms of the games, prep, etc. But, he is going to be 34. Papi had a dip and then came back to be as good as ever... but is that common? I worry that we might be taking for granted JDM as he was at his best. What if he comes back but is between last year and his best... sort of good/very good but not beast?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 22, 2021 23:48:14 GMT -5
The key to the offense, beyond the obvious JDM comeback, is Dalbec and Franchy. You know you've got an excellent first 4 if JDM bounces back at all, and 7 through 9 is much better than average with Vazquez and (vs. RHP) two of Kiké, Marwin, Arroyo, and Renfroe depending on matchups. If Dalbec and Franchy can fill the 5 and 6 holes doing damage, that's a great lineup.
People grossly over-estimate the top-to-bottom strength of most contenders' lineups. We've been spoiled by watching the Sox and focusing on the Yankees as our rivals.
Eric, you are the man to ask: thoughts on JDM’s future? Last year is a total aberration in terms of the games, prep, etc. But, he is going to be 34. Papi had a dip and then came back to be as good as ever... but is that common? I worry that we might be taking for granted JDM as he was at his best. What if he comes back but is between last year and his best... sort of good/very good but not beast? That's exactly what I expect. Let's look at projections (OBP / SA)
.363 / .544 Bill James Handbook
.360 / .523 Steamer
.357 / .510 B-Ref .357 / .508 THE BAT
.356 / .495 THE BAT X
.348 / .499 ATC
.339 / .487 ZiPS .326 / .453 PECOTA
It looks like stright BATS is using the same basic model as B-Ref, which I think is Marcel. So the median projection would be the one I bolded.
If hitters were allowed to look at their PA's on video during games, I would confidently place JDM on the higher side of these projections, as none of them factor in his inability to do so last year. The Sox should ask MLB if folks not in the dugout can look at video and text observations / suggestions to players (like "your shoulder was flying out last PA"). I see no reason why that would endanger anyone's health.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 23, 2021 0:05:36 GMT -5
Unfortunately, their lineup doesn't scare anybody, no matter how you line them up. I would wager that the Sox will be top 5 in scoring. They could have 2 silver slugger awards at ss and third. They are not as bad as people are thinking, IMO. What about JDM and for that matter Verdugo?? Arguably could have as good a chance as X and Devers. Id go as far to say Vazquez and Kiki are also possible to be near the top of 2B and C, production wise.
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 23, 2021 4:32:27 GMT -5
I would wager that the Sox will be top 5 in scoring. They could have 2 silver slugger awards at ss and third. They are not as bad as people are thinking, IMO. What about JDM and for that matter Verdugo?? Arguably could have as good a chance as X and Devers. Id go as far to say Vazquez and Kiki are also possible to be near the top of 2B and C, production wise. I didn't mention everyone but that is just proving my point. This could be a very dangerous lineup that can put some runs up. Heck Hunter Renfroe could hit 30+hrs.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 23, 2021 6:15:50 GMT -5
There is no chance JD is batting #2 in the lineup this coming year. Likewise, CV is not hitting 9th. Thankfully, Cora is a lot smarter than Chris and this tool.I already laid out the 1-5 for you. We shall see about the rest.. No. That is funny. Thanks for clarifying, but it is still funny.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 23, 2021 11:15:46 GMT -5
If hitters were allowed to look at their PA's on video during games, I would confidently place JDM on the higher side of these projections, as none of them factor in his inability to do so last year. The Sox should ask MLB if folks not in the dugout can look at video and text observations / suggestions to players (like "your shoulder was flying out last PA"). I see no reason why that would endanger anyone's health. Fairly certain they have access to video again, but the signs will be blurred out.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Feb 24, 2021 10:34:04 GMT -5
Cora says the bottom of the order could hit for a lot of power. Writer speculates that means Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero.
"Red Sox manager Alex Cora knows all about what was once expected out of an eight- or nine-hitter. He spent the majority of his career there doing all of the little things -- advancing runners, working counts, sacrificing himself to create RBI situations for the top of the order. But it's a new game and the Red Sox appear to have prioritized power in the lower third of their order. If the season started today, they could bat Franchy Cordero, Hunter Renfroe, and Bobby Dalbec seven-eight-nine. The possibilities are prodigious. "We might have two guys hitting eighth or ninth that might run into ... I'm not going to say a number ... but they might run into a lot of home runs," Cora said. "If that's the way we've got to cash in runs at the bottom of the lineup, so be it. One swing, one run, we'll take that." "https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/thunder-down-under-red-sox-revamp-bottom-order-focus-punishers?fbclid=IwAR0V-UTZA5jbQdd2BF3KeACXZboyW1SUb2AGFRD50U6tzJDJK8nEYY6d0s8
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 25, 2021 0:59:13 GMT -5
Cora says the bottom of the order could hit for a lot of power. Writer speculates that means Dalbec, Renfroe and Cordero. "Red Sox manager Alex Cora knows all about what was once expected out of an eight- or nine-hitter. He spent the majority of his career there doing all of the little things -- advancing runners, working counts, sacrificing himself to create RBI situations for the top of the order. But it's a new game and the Red Sox appear to have prioritized power in the lower third of their order. If the season started today, they could bat Franchy Cordero, Hunter Renfroe, and Bobby Dalbec seven-eight-nine. The possibilities are prodigious. "We might have two guys hitting eighth or ninth that might run into ... I'm not going to say a number ... but they might run into a lot of home runs," Cora said. "If that's the way we've got to cash in runs at the bottom of the lineup, so be it. One swing, one run, we'll take that." "https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/thunder-down-under-red-sox-revamp-bottom-order-focus-punishers?fbclid=IwAR0V-UTZA5jbQdd2BF3KeACXZboyW1SUb2AGFRD50U6tzJDJK8nEYY6d0s8 In that lineup, 5 and 6 would be Vazquez and Kiké. I actually can see Vazquez 6 and Franchy 7 (to put 2 RHB between Devers and Franchy), and Renfroe would hit 8 or 9 against RHP, but it's hard to imagine Kiké hitting 5th (or Vazquez 5th and Kiké 6th), and Dalbec ninth, when Kiké has an 82 wRC+ versus RHP both for his career and the last two seasons (admittedly, 98 the last, and they talk as if they can get more from his bat). If Dalbec can't put up a better wRC+ than 98, we're in major trouble, and you want to get the Bobby Bombs happening with men on.
And Cora specifically mentioned 8 and 9, not the bottom third. Where did Dalbec hit at the end of last year when Verdugo, Devers, Bogaerts, Martinez were 1 through 4? 7th.
Vazquez, Bradley, Dalbec, Chavis (LF), Arroyo / Arauz (three times), and once with Bradley, Plawecki 5 and 6. He also hit 6th twice when one of the quartet was out of the lineup, and 4th once, when two guys were out.
As I said earlier, 8 and 9 vs. RHP are likely 2 of Kiké, Arroyo, Renfroe, and (less often) Marwin.
Here's HR/PA vs. RHP the last 3 years, except the last two for Arroyo (adjusted downward to reflect the lower league HR rate in 2018). Renfroe and Hernandez have been adjusted for change in ballpark, per Statcast's breakdown of 2019 and 2020 homers in each park, had they played all their games there. Renfore loses .003 (but Fenway will turn outs into doubles) while Kiké gains .006.
.057 Renfroe .057 Arroyo (very SSS, of course)
.046 Hernandez .031 Gonzalez .029 Average AL #8 hitter .023 Average AL #9 hitter
I'm guessing Arroyo and Renfroe sharing 8, and Kiké 9. Pretty much fits the description (if you tone it down a bit): almost exactly double the average homers in each slot.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 25, 2021 11:06:00 GMT -5
Here are career lefty/righty splits:
| wRC+ vs. L
| wRC+ vs. R
| Verdugo | 110 | 114 | Bogaerts
| 130 | 108 | Devers | 90 | 124 | JD Martinez
| 158 | 126 | Vazquez | 100 | 77 | Franchy | 54 | 110 | Renfroe | 137 | 87 | Dalbec | 175 | 143 | Kiké | 120 | 82 | Marwin | 98 | 100 | Plawecki
| 73
| 82
| Arroyo
| 60
| 82
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This team should absolutely pound lefties. If they put out the optimal lineup against them, the only below average bat would be Devers!
They're a lot iffier against righties though. They'll be relying on Franchy and Dalbec coming through and JDM bouncing back, and even then there will probably be a couple weak spots in the lineup. And the inevitable injuries and days off, of course, will limit their ability to put out optimal lineups.
AL East lefty starters: Yankees: Montgomery Blue Jays: Ryu, Ray, Matz Rays: Yarbrough, Hill Orioles: Means, Akin, Zimmerman
Prediction: we will suck against the Yankees this year. But I suspect we'll score our share of piñata-whackings elsewhere in the division.
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iii
Rookie
Posts: 46
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Post by iii on Mar 5, 2021 15:53:07 GMT -5
CF Hernandez
RF Verdugo
SS Bogaerts
3B Devers
DH Martinez
LF Cordero / Renfore
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez
2B Gonzalez / Arroyo / Santana
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fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Mar 5, 2021 16:16:50 GMT -5
My lineup would be
Verdugo RF Vazquez C Devers 3rd Bogaerts SS JD Martinez DH Dalbec 1st Cordero/Renfroe LF Arroyo/Gonzalez 2nd Kiki CF
I think we need to give Arroyo a shot to start the season to see what we got with him. If it doesn’t work out then call up Danny and move on but with all his potential we got to see if he can blossom. We have too many 2nd baseman right now and if he does prove to be worthy of starting at 2nd then we have a ton of decisions to make like Downs moving to LF. Downs/Duran/Verdugo wouldn’t be a bad OF of the future!
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Post by incandenza on Mar 5, 2021 16:50:28 GMT -5
My lineup would be Verdugo RF Vazquez C Devers 3rd Bogaerts SS JD Martinez DH Dalbec 1st Cordero/Renfroe LF Arroyo/Gonzalez 2nd Kiki CF I think we need to give Arroyo a shot to start the season to see what we got with him. If it doesn’t work out then call up Danny and move on but with all his potential we got to see if he can blossom. We have too many 2nd baseman right now and if he does prove to be worthy of starting at 2nd then we have a ton of decisions to make like Downs moving to LF. Downs/Duran/Verdugo wouldn’t be a bad OF of the future!
Not that I'm against giving Arroyo a chance, but this does not look like a very good outfield to me. Downs probably wouldn't hit well enough for a LFer, and where is the power going to come from?
Power-hitting outfielders is not a strength of the system at the moment. I bet that's where we see a big FA addition in the next year or two.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 5, 2021 16:55:05 GMT -5
CF Hernandez RF Verdugo SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez LF Cordero / Renfore 1B Dalbec C Vazquez
2B Gonzalez / Arroyo / SantanaPlawecki as reserve catchers is 13 position players, so you are says 4 man bench?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 5, 2021 17:46:00 GMT -5
Cora said this morning going with 12 position players and 14 pitchers is "very important."
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iii
Rookie
Posts: 46
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Post by iii on Mar 5, 2021 20:22:56 GMT -5
CF Hernandez RF Verdugo SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez LF Cordero / Renfore 1B Dalbec C Vazquez
2B Gonzalez / Arroyo / SantanaPlawecki as reserve catchers is 13 position players, so you are says 4 man bench?
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iii
Rookie
Posts: 46
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Post by iii on Mar 5, 2021 20:24:41 GMT -5
Plawecki as the back up catcher, Santana starts in AAA and you go with 14 Pitchers to start.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 6, 2021 2:19:29 GMT -5
This signing leads me to believe we will never see the same Sox lineup more then once this year 😂 Lots of lineup and batting order talk in the Santana thread instead of here. Can the mods move it over?
In the meantime, inspired by manfred's speculations on the possibility of settling into a regular lineup, I did a little study: the number of different lineups and batting orders used by each WS winner, starting in 1961, and the number of times they used the most favored of each. These figures count all pitchers as one player.
There has been a significant decrease of regularity (or increase of flexibility) over time. A safe prediction for this year is that the WS winner will use 101 lineups, none more than 10 times, and 126 batting orders, none more than 6 times. From 1961 to 1968 those figures were 53 lineups, max 34, 77 batting orders, max 18.
I have some cool rankings of which teams (and managers) were most and least flexible, both on an absolute basis and relative to their day. I'll post those tomorrow. What team do you think wipes the floor for most vareity of lineups and batting orders, on an absolute basis, and is second to Tony LaRussa's 1989 Oakland A's, relative to its time?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 6, 2021 9:28:58 GMT -5
The strength of the team as it's constructed would seem to be that, unless guys like Franchy or Dalbec really flop, few ABs will go to well below-average hitters. Eric's comment got me wondering how much depth has been a factor for recent champions.
Here are positioin player fWAR totals for WS winners not counting the top 9 on each team:
2020: Dodgers, 0.0 2019: Nationals, -0.2 2018: Red Sox, -0.5 2017: Astros, 0.2 2016: Cubs, 4.7 2015: Royals, -1.6 2014: Giants, 0.6 2013: Red Sox, 4.3 2012: Giants, -0.9 2011: Cardinals, 1.0
Two of these are not like the others! Those two outliers notwithstanding, though, I'm surprised at how little variation there is. Everyone is pretty close to replacement level outside of their top 9. Of course, that makes sense if you think about it! And these are World Series winners, so that's probably toward the better end of the spectrum. But it's not like they've been systematically great in this department.
Another lesson going through these lists, though, is that one guy can kill you by being well below replacement level (e.g., Beltran on the 2017 Astros). Of course you have to get a lot of ABs to accumulate a lot of negative WAR so that's usually a regular, often an aging star on a big contract like Pujols or Chris Davis. The only Red Sox who could conceivably fit that profile would be JDM, though I very much doubt he's about to go Chris Davis on us. Otherwise it would probably take something like a raft of injuries leading to Danny Santana putting in regular time as a corner infielder and hitting like his non-2019 self.
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