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2021 Lineup / Batting Order
manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 6, 2021 9:37:27 GMT -5
This signing leads me to believe we will never see the same Sox lineup more then once this year 😂 Lots of lineup and batting order talk in the Santana thread instead of here. Can the mods move it over?
In the meantime, inspired by manfred's speculations on the possibility of settling into a regular lineup, I did a little study: the number of different lineups and batting orders used by each WS winner, starting in 1961, and the number of times they used the most favored of each. These figures count all pitchers as one player.
There has been a significant decrease of regularity (or increase of flexibility) over time. A safe prediction for this year is that the WS winner will use 101 lineups, none more than 10 times, and 126 batting orders, none more than 6 times. From 1961 to 1968 those figures were 53 lineups, max 34, 77 batting orders, max 18.
I have some cool rankings of which teams (and managers) were most and least flexible, both on an absolute basis and relative to their day. I'll post those tomorrow. What team do you think wipes the floor for most vareity of lineups and batting orders, on an absolute basis, and is second to Tony LaRussa's 1989 Oakland A's, relative to its time?
To be clear, I don’t mean *totally* fixed. I mean relatively. That is, there are always some moving pieces, even excluding injury. If x player is taking a day off, y player who normally bats 6th moves to 2nd... or whatever. So maybe it would be more accurate to say dramatically reduced (and regularized) rotations. So, for example,(and I’m not saying this *will* happen, it is merely an example), Kiké settles in as the regular 2b. Still, if, say, Cordero gets banged up, and Renfroe is sitting, maybe Kiké jumps to center. But that is more conditional than baked in... the *preference* being him back at 2b. Eric’s research doesn’t surprise me given how many variables can move a lineup slightly. But I’m suggesting a move towards stability... fewer moves, less drastic ones... there will still always be injuries, rest days, a guy moving down the lineup because he’s cold, etc.
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fenwayfaithful
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Post by fenwayfaithful on Mar 6, 2021 13:04:56 GMT -5
Am i the only one who thinks it should be
Verdugo Vazquez Devers Bogaerts JD
that should be out top 5 every game. Bogaerts batting 2nd would be a waste. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball with runners in scoring position.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 6, 2021 13:31:40 GMT -5
The strength of the team as it's constructed would seem to be that, unless guys like Franchy or Dalbec really flop, few ABs will go to well below-average hitters. Eric's comment got me wondering how much depth has been a factor for recent champions.
Here are positioin player fWAR totals for WS winners not counting the top 9 on each team:
2020: Dodgers, 0.0 2019: Nationals, -0.2 2018: Red Sox, -0.5 2017: Astros, 0.2 2016: Cubs, 4.7 2015: Royals, -1.6 2014: Giants, 0.6 2013: Red Sox, 4.3 2012: Giants, -0.9 2011: Cardinals, 1.0
Two of these are not like the others! Those two outliers notwithstanding, though, I'm surprised at how little variation there is. Everyone is pretty close to replacement level outside of their top 9. Of course, that makes sense if you think about it! And these are World Series winners, so that's probably toward the better end of the spectrum. But it's not like they've been systematically great in this department.
Another lesson going through these lists, though, is that one guy can kill you by being well below replacement level (e.g., Beltran on the 2017 Astros). Of course you have to get a lot of ABs to accumulate a lot of negative WAR so that's usually a regular, often an aging star on a big contract like Pujols or Chris Davis. The only Red Sox who could conceivably fit that profile would be JDM, though I very much doubt he's about to go Chris Davis on us. Otherwise it would probably take something like a raft of injuries leading to Danny Santana putting in regular time as a corner infielder and hitting like his non-2019 self.
This is one of 2 easy and informative ways of doing this, but you can also take the WAR of the 8 (NL) or 9 (AL) regulars, and bench / replacements, separately.
And you can combine the two ways to get 5 types: regulars and subpar regulars (not among the top 8 or 9 in WAR); elite bench (among the top 8 or 9 in WAR) and bench; replacements.
To do this properly, though, you have to combine guys who shared a roster spot because of trades or promotions / demotions, and also get your regulars properly distributed by position rather than just taking the 8 or 9 guys who got the most PT. The 2011 Cardinals need both tweaks; what I'm classifying as their their 4th OF combo (but see below), Colby Rasmus who was traded for Corey Patterson, got more PT than primary 3B David Freese. And they traded for Rafael Furcal at the deadline to take over SS from Ryan Theriot, who replaced Tyler Greene on the bench.
So, the 2011 Cards had 6 regulars with 19.3 bWAR and 2 subpar regulars (Theriot / Furcal SS, Schumaker 2B) with 1.9 WAR; 2 elite bench (Craig OF, Punto 2B) with 4.0 WAR and 3 bench (Rasmus / Patterson OF, Descalso 3B, Greene 2B) with 2.2, and were 0.0 with replacements.
And as suggested above, this is still a simplification. John Jay, who we're treating as the starting CF since he was both 5th in WAR and in defensive innings, was actually a much used 4th OFer into late July, when he took over CF from Rasmus, prompting the latter's trade for Corey Patterson, who replaced Jay on the bench.
If I'd known this was so complicated, I might have started with the 2013 Sox! But the '11 Cards seem to have thrown all the possible curveballs, so that was helpful. According to b-Ref, they had three weaknesses in the starting lineup and addressed two of them at the deadline (Theriot started for four months and was on the bench for two and had 0.3 WAR, while Furcal had 0.8 in his two months), but LaRussa never got that Punto was a better option at 2B than Schumaker. If he actually was!
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Post by incandenza on Mar 6, 2021 14:15:46 GMT -5
Yeah, I thought about just defining it as everyone outside the top-9 by plate appearances too. It all depends what exactly we mean by "depth" I guess. For present purposes I was most interested in ways that Bloom had managed to limit downside risk with this roster.
The guys below our top 9 this season by plate appearances would figure to be Renfroe, Plawecki, Arroyo, Chavis, Santana, Duran, Arauz... There is some interesting upside there at least.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 6, 2021 15:04:07 GMT -5
Am i the only one who thinks it should be Verdugo Vazquez Devers Bogaerts JD that should be out top 5 every game. Bogaerts batting 2nd would be a waste. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball with runners in scoring position. I don’t like catcher 2nd at all. I’d say Vazquez 6-8. We are also all anticipating variations. But for optimal I would say Verdugo Kiki Bogaerts JD Devers Renfroe Dalbec Vazquez Gonzalez This is assuming JD is back. Obviously Dalbec and Renfroe are on a bit of a leash. Keep in mind Cora stated he wants the athletic guys on the top.
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iii
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Post by iii on Mar 6, 2021 15:32:13 GMT -5
CF Hernandez
RF Verdugo
SS Bogaerts
3B Devers
DH Martinez
LF Cordero / Renfore
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez
2B Gonzalez / Arroyo
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 7, 2021 12:44:45 GMT -5
CF Hernandez RF Verdugo SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez LF Cordero / Renfore 1B Dalbec C Vazquez 2B Gonzalez / Arroyo I would agree with this. It also separates the left handed hitters as the Red Sox have so few.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 7, 2021 14:08:14 GMT -5
CF Hernandez RF Verdugo SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez LF Cordero / Renfore 1B Dalbec C Vazquez 2B Gonzalez / Arroyo I would agree with this. It also separates the left handed hitters as the Red Sox have so few. I like the lineup and I know some of you disagree but I honestly think it’s going to be Verdugo in CF and Kiki at 2B. Most everyday. And as a sub note I’d say Arroyo is a long shot to be on this team by May
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Post by jdog2020 on Mar 7, 2021 14:19:16 GMT -5
I agree that Kiki will be at 2B most days and Verdugo in CF. Kiki has been swinging the bat decently in the spring. Originally, I would have preferred CV in the 2 spot. I don't think we are going to see many constant lineups.
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Post by jdog2020 on Mar 7, 2021 14:20:21 GMT -5
CF Hernandez RF Verdugo SS Bogaerts 3B Devers DH Martinez LF Cordero / Renfore 1B Dalbec C Vazquez 2B Gonzalez / Arroyo I would agree with this. It also separates the left handed hitters as the Red Sox have so few. Huh?? 3-4 of their hitters in the daily lineup are lefthanded. That is the proper ratio, considering most starters are right-handed. Also, Renfroe will play RF more than LF.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 17, 2021 8:33:22 GMT -5
Methinks this is opening day if Cordero can't go.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 17, 2021 8:50:27 GMT -5
Methinks this is opening day if Cordero can't go. It has to be too late now for Cordero, doesn’t it? He hasn’t done a thing yet, has he? He must be so behind.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 17, 2021 9:58:20 GMT -5
He's been playing in sim games and they haven't ruled it out apparently. But yeah, I'd be very surprised if he makes it back in time.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 17, 2021 13:30:33 GMT -5
Unless Cordero breaks out and proves he can hit lefties (career 54 wRC+), I'm not going to want to see him and Renfroe in the same lineup very often. Really seems like that should be a pretty strict platoon. (And it looks like the Red Sox don't face a righty starter until their third game, on 4/4.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 17, 2021 13:44:15 GMT -5
Unless Cordero breaks out and proves he can hit lefties (career 54 wRC+), I'm not going to want to see him and Renfroe in the same lineup very often. Really seems like that should be a pretty strict platoon. (And it looks like the Red Sox don't face a righty starter until their third game, on 4/4.) I mean, what would you like to see instead? If you move Hernandez to the outfield then you're starting Gonzalez or Arroyo instead. Is that much better? It really does feel like this outfield (and roster, really) was built with the hope Duran can come up midyear if someone isn't playing up to their, say, 70% percentile outcome.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 17, 2021 14:20:10 GMT -5
Unless Cordero breaks out and proves he can hit lefties (career 54 wRC+), I'm not going to want to see him and Renfroe in the same lineup very often. Really seems like that should be a pretty strict platoon. (And it looks like the Red Sox don't face a righty starter until their third game, on 4/4.) I mean, what would you like to see instead? If you move Hernandez to the outfield then you're starting Gonzalez or Arroyo instead. Is that much better? It really does feel like this outfield (and roster, really) was built with the hope Duran can come up midyear if someone isn't playing up to their, say, 70% percentile outcome. Well I'd rather see Marwin against righties than Renfroe; he has basically no career L/R split. Kiké's is bigger than I had remembered (120 vs. L, 82 vs. R). So yeah, I guess they have to play a lousy bat against righties regardless.
I agree this roster only makes sense if they're counting on Duran to contribute by mid-season. Seems risky to me...
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 17, 2021 14:25:56 GMT -5
I mean, what would you like to see instead? If you move Hernandez to the outfield then you're starting Gonzalez or Arroyo instead. Is that much better? It really does feel like this outfield (and roster, really) was built with the hope Duran can come up midyear if someone isn't playing up to their, say, 70% percentile outcome. Well I'd rather see Marwin against righties than Renfroe; he has basically no career L/R split. Kiké's is bigger than I had remembered (120 vs. L, 82 vs. R). So yeah, I guess they have to play a lousy bat against righties regardless. I agree this roster only makes sense if they're counting on Duran to contribute by mid-season. Seems risky to me...
I suspect that's what they've been banking on for quite awhile. That's probably another reason for their tepid request to re-sign JBJ. I think they like what they saw of Duran and plan to have him up by midseason if not sooner. They saw plenty of him in Pawtucket playing those intersquad games and figured that he wouldn't even need a full year at AAA in 2021. It's risky but if it doesn't work, that only means you need to get an outfield bat at the deadline if you really need to, so I think they were more than willing to take the risk.
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Post by benzinger on Mar 17, 2021 14:59:56 GMT -5
Methinks this is opening day if Cordero can't go. I don’t like Devers batting 5th, but the rest seems about right. I’d rather Devers get the extra AB’s over the course of a season rather than Kiki or Verdugo. I’d think 2nd is the best slot for Devers, but I also trust Cora.
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Post by benzinger on Mar 17, 2021 15:01:26 GMT -5
Unless Cordero breaks out and proves he can hit lefties (career 54 wRC+), I'm not going to want to see him and Renfroe in the same lineup very often. Really seems like that should be a pretty strict platoon. (And it looks like the Red Sox don't face a righty starter until their third game, on 4/4.) I mean, what would you like to see instead? If you move Hernandez to the outfield then you're starting Gonzalez or Arroyo instead. Is that much better? It really does feel like this outfield (and roster, really) was built with the hope Duran can come up midyear if someone isn't playing up to their, say, 70% percentile outcome. I think Duran is 100% in their plans this year. He probably would have been in the mix LAST year under normal circumstances.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 17, 2021 15:43:39 GMT -5
Methinks this is opening day if Cordero can't go. I donât like Devers batting 5th, but the rest seems about right. Iâd rather Devers get the extra ABâs over the course of a season rather than Kiki or Verdugo. Iâd think 2nd is the best slot for Devers, but I also trust Cora. Originally when I brought up the issue of Cora deciding to lead off with Kiké against righties I got shot down by some silly post thinking that I actually cared about the impact to the results of meaningless spring training games. To me, it's a legit question. Is it really a good idea to lead off against righties with a guy who isn't that good a hitter against righties and isn't exactly an on-base machine against them? For me, once Cordero is ready, this is the lineup I would go with against righties: Verdugo RF Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Vazquez C Cordero LF Dalbec 1B Gonzalez 2B Hernandez CF Against lefties, I'd be ok with trying Hernandez against lefties, although Verdugo might still be the better choice there. Verdugo RF Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Vazquez C Dalbec 1b Hernandez CF Renfroe LF Arroyo 2B Ideally Duran comes up midseason ready to rake. If so this could wind up being the lineup they're hoping for against righties: Duran CF (if he hits well enough/gets on-base enough) Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Verdugo RF Dalbec 1b Cordero LF Vazquez C Hernandez 2B (maybe we see Downs here by the end of the year, although I don't really think so)
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Post by benzinger on Mar 17, 2021 15:48:53 GMT -5
I donât like Devers batting 5th, but the rest seems about right. Iâd rather Devers get the extra ABâs over the course of a season rather than Kiki or Verdugo. Iâd think 2nd is the best slot for Devers, but I also trust Cora. Originally when I brought up the issue of Cora deciding to lead off with Kiké against righties I got shot down by some silly post thinking that I actually cared about the impact to the results of meaningless spring training games. To me, it's a legit question. Is it really a good idea to lead off against righties with a guy who isn't that good a hitter against righties and isn't exactly an on-base machine against them? For me, once Cordero is ready, this is the lineup I would go with against righties: Verdugo RF Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Vazquez C Cordero LF Dalbec 1B Gonzalez 2B Hernandez CF Against lefties, I'd be ok with trying Hernandez against lefties, although Verdugo might still be the better choice there. Verdugo RF Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Vazquez C Dalbec 1b Hernandez CF Renfroe LF Arroyo 2B Ideally Duran comes up midseason ready to rake. If so this could wind up being the lineup they're hoping for against righties: Duran CF (if he hits well enough/gets on-base enough) Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Verdugo RF Dalbec 1b Cordero LF Vazquez C Hernandez 2B (maybe we see Downs here by the end of the year, although I don't really think so) Agree with this. I’m fine batting Kiki in the bottom 1/3. None of us would rather see him up there in a key spot over Bogaerts or Devers. Get those guys as many AB’s as possible.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 17, 2021 18:22:42 GMT -5
Re Kiké and the batting order ...
He is clearly the one hitter on the roster who is working on a new approach, hunting fastballs early in the count and not chasing when ahead, and it's also clear that they signed him to be an everyday player if that upside is realized at LF, CF, and 2B. So his batting leadoff every day can be fully explained by the need to get him as many PA as possible.
But it's also worth noting that he has batted directly ahead of Verdugo in many (most?) games.
To review the standard formula for a lineup nowadays:
- Best hitter hits 2nd. That's Xander, and he has missed most of ST until recently. - Next two best hitters hit 1st and 4th. The guy who's more of a table-setter leads off and the guy who is more of a teammate-RBI guy bats cleanup. That's Verdugo and Devers respectively. And Devers has hit 4th all spring. -- Fourth and fifth best hitters hit 3rd and 5th. Better hitter hits 3rd. But the 3 hole is more of an RBI spot and the 5th is more a table-setter, so they can be swapped if needs be. JDM is the obvious #3 hitter and has been hitting 3rd all spring.
So where does Kiké hit for RHP? One excellent possibility is 9th -- still ahead of Verdugo, and with the top of the order coming up, he'll be challenged with FB just as he would be batting 1st with Verdugo second. But he has expressed a fondness for getting his first PA early, and the team is sorely lacking in a 5 hole type, so that's another solid option should the new approach really work.
Franchy once healthy seems likely to start the season hitting 7th, this putting two RHB between him and Devers.
That leaves 5, 6, 8, 9 to be filled by Kiké, Vazquez, Dalbec, and Arroyo or Renfroe.
I started looking up a lot of stats before realizing that the 5, 6, 8, and 9 hitters have to be shuffled day-to-day by matchups, except that I think Renfore will hit 8th when he's in an OF corner and Kiké is at 2B instead of Arroyo.
I don't think you'll see Dalbec 9th or Arroyo 5th, and as I said Kiké seems somewhat likelier to be 5 than 6, and definitely likelier 9 than 8, but Vazquez could end up anywhere on a given day, Dalbec might split his time equally between 5, 6, and 8, Arroyo 6, 8, and 9, and so on. If Franchy starts on the IL and is replaced by a (non-strict) platoon of Marwin and Renfroe, that will be even more of a free-for-all.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 17, 2021 21:12:14 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, Hernandez has not played a corner yet this spring. Only 2B, SS, and CF. Maybe with Bogaerts getting back into it they'll get him some more run in left or right.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 17, 2021 22:45:00 GMT -5
K Hernandez hitting first is one of the great experiments of ST. The whole idea has been, it seems to me, is to find a way to keep Verdugo at 2, so that JD, Rafa and X can hit 345.
Then Dalbec and Cordero/Renfroe at 7.
The lineup gets less potent if Hernandez is not up to leading off.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 18, 2021 3:20:13 GMT -5
K Hernandez hitting first is one of the great experiments of ST. The whole idea has been, it seems to me, is to find a way to keep Verdugo at 2, so that JD, Rafa and X can hit 345. Then Dalbec and Cordero/Renfroe at 7. The lineup gets less potent if Hernandez is not up to leading off. The key stat for a leadoff guy is OBP. Last year MLB had a .322 overall OBP, but leadoff hitters had .334. But these ranged from .412 for the Yankees to .275 for the Pirates. Those are incredible figures (good and bad) for a player, let alone by a team.
The 10 teams with the best offenses included the top 8 teams with the highest leadoff OBP. (The Padres had the 3rd best offense but 14th best leadoff OBP, and the Phillies had the 6th best offense but the 18th best leadoff OBP). Those ten best offenses averaged .364 OBP from the leadoff spot. The ten worst averaged .312.
Verdugo had a .360 OBP last year versus RHP.
Kiké Hernandez has a career .286. And the only times he's been above .285 in his career was his .323 in 99 PA as a rookie, and his .338 in 2018.
He's only had 4 months in his career where he had an OBP versus RHP of higher than .345. The odds of him putting up the .360 or so that you want from the leadoff hitter would seem to be tiny.
However .... those 4 months were the last two months of 2018, and July and August of 2019. And he cleared the .360 by more than a bit.
From August 19 to the end of the 2018 season, he hit .340 / .448 / .596 versus RHP, in 60 PA. Statcast has his expected line at .292 / .448 / .496, but that's still great.
From July 7 to August 28 of 2019 he hit .444 / .556 / .722 vs. RHP, in 45 PA. Statcast has him at .284 / .427 / .369; still a great OBP.
In both stretches he walked more than he struck out; in his career he has a .229 K rate and .077 walk rate against RHP.
One of the things they're trying to get Kiké to do is take walks once he gets ahead in the count rather than chasing pitches. It seems really likely that he did that in these two stretches.
So it's not ludicrous that he could become good enough to hit in the top 5 of the batting order. But it would be insane to throw a guy with a career .276 OBP median season versus RHP into a spot where he needs to put up a .360 or so if you're going to have a playoff-caliber offense. There's zero downside of having him start the season hitting 9th or 5th.
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