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2021 Lineup / Batting Order
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 18, 2021 6:30:58 GMT -5
K Hernandez hitting first is one of the great experiments of ST. The whole idea has been, it seems to me, is to find a way to keep Verdugo at 2, so that JD, Rafa and X can hit 345. Then Dalbec and Cordero/Renfroe at 7. The lineup gets less potent if Hernandez is not up to leading off. The key stat for a leadoff guy is OBP. Last year MLB had a .322 overall OBP, but leadoff hitters had .334. But these ranged from .412 for the Yankees to .275 for the Pirates. Those are incredible figures (good and bad) for a player, let alone by a team. The 10 teams with the best offenses included the top 8 teams with the highest leadoff OBP. (The Padres had the 3rd best offense but 14th best leadoff OBP, and the Phillies had the 6th best offense but the 18th best leadoff OBP). Those ten best offenses averaged .364 OBP from the leadoff spot. The ten worst averaged .312.
Verdugo had a .360 OBP last year versus RHP. Kiké Hernandez has a career .286. And the only times he's been above .285 in his career was his .323 in 99 PA as a rookie, and his .338 in 2018.
He's only had 4 months in his career where he had an OBP versus RHP of higher than .345. The odds of him putting up the .360 or so that you want from the leadoff hitter would seem to be tiny.
However .... those 4 months were the last two months of 2018, and July and August of 2019. And he cleared the .360 by more than a bit.
From August 19 to the end of the 2018 season, he hit .340 / .448 / .596 versus RHP, in 60 PA. Statcast has his expected line at .292 / .448 / .496, but that's still great.
From July 7 to August 28 of 2019 he hit .444 / .556 / .722 vs. RHP, in 45 PA. Statcast has him at .284 / .427 / .369; still a great OBP.
In both stretches he walked more than he struck out; in his career he has a .229 K rate and .077 walk rate against RHP. One of the things they're trying to get Kiké to do is take walks once he gets ahead in the count rather than chasing pitches. It seems really likely that he did that in these two stretches. So it's not ludicrous that he could become good enough to hit in the top 5 of the batting order. But it would be insane to throw a guy with a career .276 OBP median season versus RHP into a spot where he needs to put up a .360 or so if you're going to have a playoff-caliber offense. There's zero downside of having him start the season hitting 9th or 5th.
So I'm not the only guy concerned about the big gamble Cora is taking, in leading off Kiké against righties, a huge role on the offense, one in which the odds are apparently stacked against it succeeding unless Hernandez changes things drastically from what has been the majority of his history as a major leaguer?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 18, 2021 8:09:08 GMT -5
Eric, have you looked at Hernandez playing regularly versus sporadically? On the pod we suggested that perhaps they see him as a guy who'll respond well to being a true regular. We meant it more in the intangible sense of rewarding the team's faith in him, being challenged to step up in that role, etc., but I could see it being based on numbers when he plays more often as well. His career high in PA is 462, which, for reference, would've been 8th on the 2019 Red Sox and at least 100 PA behind 6 players.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2021 8:17:40 GMT -5
Isn't the problem that the Red Sox simply don't have a talent level right now that will let them have the top 5 guys all have high OBP?
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Post by costpet on Mar 18, 2021 9:41:12 GMT -5
Anyone here worried about Martinez? Could he be a hole in the lineup? I've seen nothing this Spring to make me think otherwise.
Okay, I'm a worrywart.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 18, 2021 18:18:35 GMT -5
Eric, have you looked at Hernandez playing regularly versus sporadically? On the pod we suggested that perhaps they see him as a guy who'll respond well to being a true regular. We meant it more in the intangible sense of rewarding the team's faith in him, being challenged to step up in that role, etc., but I could see it being based on numbers when he plays more often as well. His career high in PA is 462, which, for reference, would've been 8th on the 2019 Red Sox and at least 100 PA behind 6 players. A/k/a, have I done the Chavis splits on him? No, I haven't. How did I not think of that?
This team is just too interesting. I still haven't posted the first half of the Dalbec study or done the earlier-conceived second half, the comparisons to other hitters.
However, there's a good chance that the Chavis spreadsheet can be copied and Kiké's data plugged in without a lot of work.
Ironically, the thing I'm planning to do tonight and tomorrow is ... construct a massive to-do list from items written on many, many different pieces of paper (plus items in folders and voice memos on my new Samsung Smartwatch, which is an incredibly awesome device even if you subtract the fact that you can pretend you're Dick Tracy.). Since there's only one thing to do on my to-do list, I can put that off, right?
More seriously, hopefully this weekend.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 18, 2021 18:28:38 GMT -5
Isn't the problem that the Red Sox simply don't have a talent level right now that will let them have the top 5 guys all have high OBP? They are missing an obvious 5th-best hitter. Maybe the Franchy / Renfroe platoon becomes that. That's one hope, I think. Dalbec and Kiké are other possibilities.
But the potential 5 through 9 guys are collectively above-average talent-wise, because the guys who will be hitting 7 through 9 will be unusually good.
The other problem besides the lack of a fifth top hitter is that all the 5 through 9 candidates are lower OBP, higher SA types, unless Dalbec can draw a ton of walks as he has done at times in the minors. Kiké is working on walking more, too.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 18, 2021 18:38:03 GMT -5
The 462 max PAs are a complete reflection of how the Dodgers used him. Can't count the number of times he was brought in from the middle of the game on. Does that change the equation? Is there anything to say about that? B-R has a nice feature on their pages with game logs: when the player entered/exited the game. Here's what his 2016 looked like, which is when the team really started in on this. It's a little harder to accumulate PAs when you're in for the last few innings. He was the Swiss army knife for LA.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2021 19:10:26 GMT -5
Isn’t it true that Kiké doesn’t really need to walk more, as he’s almost always had an OBP much higher than his BA, but he just needs a higher BA?
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 18, 2021 20:16:00 GMT -5
AC is trying to find a leadoff hitter in Kikéâ. Is that insane? I disagree. Thinking outside the box is not insane. Itâs a long shot, but it might work out. Maybe not at .360 but better than .276. How will Alex even begin to measure that possibility if he does not give it a try?
ST stats are not determinative. We all agree on that. Still, it would surprise if Kikéâs .476 OBP this year will be totally ignored especially if he keeps it up over the next two weeks.
As for JD Martinez, if his ST performance does not improve, there will develop a compelling argument to drop him into fifth in the order.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 18, 2021 21:51:58 GMT -5
Isn’t it true that Kiké doesn’t really need to walk more, as he’s almost always had an OBP much higher than his BA, but he just needs a higher BA? Hmm. Career 9.2% walk rate, so that seems fine. But yeah, only a .240 average - and a .272 BABIP. Wonder if that's due to a lot of flyouts to left that Fenway could help him with...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 19, 2021 9:31:20 GMT -5
Isn’t it true that Kiké doesn’t really need to walk more, as he’s almost always had an OBP much higher than his BA, but he just needs a higher BA? Nor so much versus RHP. Last three years his 8.2% vs. RHP ranks 150th out of 270 players with 500 PA versus them (he has 619). Vs. LHP, he's 9.1, 113th out of 262 with 200+ PA. That's 57th percentile, versus 46th vs. RHP. It is true that BA is the larger part of the low OBP, but the walk rate vs. RHP is not good enough for a table-setter, and he's working on hitting the ball harder as well.
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Post by manfred on Mar 19, 2021 9:42:15 GMT -5
I get that he could be a big run producer, but why not lead Verdugo off? He doesn’t walk a ton, but his overall OBP was pretty good last year. He also has decent speed... not necessarily steal-speed, but get-an-extra-base speed.
Anyway, it also gets one of your best hitters maximum at bats.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 19, 2021 10:14:36 GMT -5
I get that he could be a big run producer, but why not lead Verdugo off? He doesnât walk a ton, but his overall OBP was pretty good last year. He also has decent speed... not necessarily steal-speed, but get-an-extra-base speed. Anyway, it also gets one of your best hitters maximum at bats. To make it clear, I think there's zero chance Kiké's going to be the leadoff hitter starting the season. That's what I meant when I said that the need to get him as many PA as possible was the main reason he's been hitting leadoff.
Admittedly, I thought there was zero chance they'd sign Marwin Gonzalez instead of both JBJ and Mitch Moreland, but that's because I wasn't aware of the 3-man bench plan, or the fact that when Gonzalez changed his approach in 2017 it also reversed some awful situational splits he had.
And I thought there was zero chance they'd trade Benny, but I hadn't conceived that they would get a similar player, also with huge upside, who had more years of control, plus a healthy prospect package.
I liked both of those moves. And the rest of the off-season went nearly as I expected, even to the point of signing Kiké and Renfroe from my want list. They signed three RHR's instead of two RHR and a lefty; that was the other surprise, and that's just knowing why Taylor sucked and could be counted on bouncing back. An I love to death the three guys they did pick up.
I would hate Kiké batting leadoff, and I don't believe there's anything I'm missing about that. There are no unknowns involved; it's just arranging the pieces they have.
Even if Kiké was one of their four best hitters (replacing JDM), you wouldn't bat him first; you'd bat him 3rd and JDM 5th. Xander's their best hitter and bats second; batting him 5th is a non-starter. Who's going to knock him in? Verdugo fits in really well as the leadoff hitter. If Kiké is at leadoff, Verdugo is 3rd and JDM fifth, and now Verdugo and Devers are back-to-back and Devers sees a ton more LHR.
There's a realistic scenario where everything Kiké is working on succeeds, and he ends up being a good #5 hitter. But given his tools (beginning with plus raw power that has never fully translated into game power) and past numbers, it's hard to imagine that he'd be transforming himself into a table-setter type who would hit 1st.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 19, 2021 13:08:45 GMT -5
I get that he could be a big run producer, but why not lead Verdugo off? He doesnâÂÂt walk a ton, but his overall OBP was pretty good last year. He also has decent speed... not necessarily steal-speed, but get-an-extra-base speed. Anyway, it also gets one of your best hitters maximum at bats. To make it clear, I think there's zero chance Kiké's going to be the leadoff hitter starting the season. That's what I meant when I said that the need to get him as many PA as possible was the main reason he's been hitting leadoff.
Admittedly, I thought there was zero chance they'd sign Marwin Gonzalez instead of both JBJ and Mitch Moreland, but that's because I wasn't aware of the 3-man bench plan, or the fact that when Gonzalez changed his approach in 2017 it also reversed some awful situational splits he had. And I thought there was zero chance they'd trade Benny, but I hadn't conceived that they would get a similar player, also with huge upside, who had more years of control, plus a healthy prospect package. I liked both of those moves. And the rest of the off-season went nearly as I expected, even to the point of signing Kiké and Renfroe from my want list. They signed three RHR's instead of two RHR and a lefty; that was the other surprise, and that's just knowing why Taylor sucked and could be counted on bouncing back. An I love to death the three guys they did pick up.
I would hate Kiké batting leadoff, and I don't believe there's anything I'm missing about that. There are no unknowns involved; it's just arranging the pieces they have.
Even if Kiké was one of their four best hitters (replacing JDM), you wouldn't bat him first; you'd bat him 3rd and JDM 5th. Xander's their best hitter and bats second; batting him 5th is a non-starter. Who's going to knock him in? Verdugo fits in really well as the leadoff hitter. If Kiké is at leadoff, Verdugo is 3rd and JDM fifth, and now Verdugo and Devers are back-to-back and Devers sees a ton more LHR. There's a realistic scenario where everything Kiké is working on succeeds, and he ends up being a good #5 hitter. But given his tools (beginning with plus raw power that has never fully translated into game power) and past numbers, it's hard to imagine that he'd be transforming himself into a table-setter type who would hit 1st.
Why is such hyperbole necessary when it is obvious that Cora IS planning to leadoff Kiké when the season starts. I mean the odds are closer to 0 that he won't leadoff than the other way around. That said, I agree with you. I think it's a terrible idea to leadoff with him even if he does hit fairly well - if he does I'd rather see him 6th or so depending upon how his platoon split looks. The Sox aren't flush with leadoff types. Verdugo who hits lefties as well as righties should probably lead off. He's a pure hitter who'll have high enough of a BA that his OBP should be decent even though he's hardly a big walks guy. I think Bogaerts should be the #2 hitter, but we'll probably see him 4th or 5th. Bogaerts has the best combo of power and OBP that makes sense in the #2 hole. I hope Duran hits well enough eventually to supplant whoever leads off. I like the idea of Verdugo batting 5th as a secondary leadoff guy of sorts, meaning that the majority of 1st innings end with the 4th batter meaning that the 5th batter is most likely to lead off the 2nd. Besides he can split up the righties in that spot. Ideally I like Devers 3rd as he's a hacker and least likely to lead off an inning and will always bat in the first inning, preferably with men on. Hopefully JDM rebounds enough to be the #4 hitter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 19, 2021 14:01:21 GMT -5
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Mar 19, 2021 14:18:08 GMT -5
It seems like Cora has identified that Kiké is the type of player who would respond well to being challenged. Some players need support and some players need a bit of a push, and Cora seems to be really tuned in to that kind of stuff. Same type of thing as with Devers. Cora also seems like a pretty rational gamesman, so you would have to think that he’s “eyeballed” that whatever improvements he’s expecting out of Kiké would at least mostly offset the decreased overall utility of batting him leadoff. But maybe I’m reading too much into it.
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Post by orion09 on Mar 19, 2021 14:18:47 GMT -5
Also, FYI, the word filter killed that link
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2021 14:40:46 GMT -5
If it's against lefties, okay. But he has a career .286 OBP against righties. Can someone explain how it would be anything other than insane to have him lead off against righties (i.e., in most games)?
Maybe he can benefit from "being challenged" or whatever psychological tricks high-level athletes need to deploy against themselves. But I highly doubt that would be worth the 60 points of OBP it would take to make the gambit worthwhile.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 19, 2021 15:09:45 GMT -5
Here is why it is not insane. If the lineup starts with Dugie, the “heart of the order” ends at 4.
Until Duran earns the job, and we all hope he does, the Sox do not have a natural leadoff hitter. Some might even argue that his four hit performance today on top of the rest of his ST makes Duran a viable candidate for the job from Opening Day.
And it is time to put Chavis in the mix. His hitting looks like the old Chavis. Sure, ST, but is he not hitting like a solid 5 or 6 at this point?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 19, 2021 15:37:02 GMT -5
Also, FYI, the word filter killed that link Just Google search for Kiké Hernandez Alex Cora leadoff.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 19, 2021 15:43:29 GMT -5
Here is why it is not insane. If the lineup starts with Dugie, the âheart of the orderâ ends at 4. Until Duran earns the job, and we all hope he does, the Sox do not have a natural leadoff hitter. Some might even argue that his four hit performance today on top of the rest of his ST makes Duran a viable candidate for the job from Opening Day. Well heck, we could lead off with Kiké, Marwin, and Dalbec, and then the "heart of the order" would extend all the way through the 7 spot. Lengthen the lineup, as they say!
For the record, my position is that Verdugo should lead off. Career OBP of .345, .367 last season, and as a 24-year-old he's probably still improving. Plus no significant L/R split so you can start him there every day.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 19, 2021 16:28:24 GMT -5
I get that he could be a big run producer, but why not lead Verdugo off? He doesnât walk a ton, but his overall OBP was pretty good last year. He also has decent speed... not necessarily steal-speed, but get-an-extra-base speed. Anyway, it also gets one of your best hitters maximum at bats. To make it clear, I think there's zero chance Kiké's going to be the leadoff hitter starting the season. That's what I meant when I said that the need to get him as many PA as possible was the main reason he's been hitting leadoff.
[...] Zero chance? Wow, too bad this site does not encourage wagering. There are other ways to get him as many at bats as possible. They could have him bat 6th and 10th (as the EH) and get eight at bats a game.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 19, 2021 17:57:49 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 19, 2021 18:00:23 GMT -5
If it's against lefties, okay. But he has a career .286 OBP against righties. Can someone explain how it would be anything other than insane to have him lead off against righties (i.e., in most games)? Maybe he can benefit from "being challenged" or whatever psychological tricks high-level athletes need to deploy against themselves. But I highly doubt that would be worth the 60 points of OBP it would take to make the gambit worthwhile. I'm all onboard with Cora coming up with the best way to motivate Kiké, and then not undercutting that when talking to the press. And of course, when Opening Day comes, he can tell Kiké that he almost earned the leadoff spot and bat him 5th vs. RHP. Which is still "the heart of the order" and hardly a dis.
I'll also add that as much as the front office likes not to interfere with managerial decisions, if by some unfathomable chance Cora is serious about this, I believe that Bloom would tell him "no, you can't do that."
Let me point out again that pushing Verdugo down to 2 or 3 means that he and Rafael Devers are going to face a LHP instead of a RHP in the late innings of more games than not. Verdugo's platoon split is tiny (117 wRC+ v. 113 the last 3 years), but that's against the average LHP. Almost every LHR reliever in an MLB bullpen is tougher than average against LHB. Devers is 130 / 77, and 148 / 82 the last 2 years. The three-batter rule will help him hugely if he's surrounded by RHB; it'll be very iffy to being in a LHR to face him if Kiké and Dalbec (or even CV) are the next two hitters. Move Verdugo to 2, and bringing in a LHR to face him, JDM, Devers is a no-brainer.
I'll furthermore add that challenging a guy with a difficult new job for which he seems to be grossly underqualified, and which he can practice in a meaningless situation, is one thing psychologically, and actually doing it when it's important is completely different. You can erase all the progress he makes if he feels pressure as a leadoff guy and starts the season badly.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 19, 2021 18:17:56 GMT -5
If it's against lefties, okay. But he has a career .286 OBP against righties. Can someone explain how it would be anything other than insane to have him lead off against righties (i.e., in most games)? Maybe he can benefit from "being challenged" or whatever psychological tricks high-level athletes need to deploy against themselves. But I highly doubt that would be worth the 60 points of OBP it would take to make the gambit worthwhile. I'm all onboard with Cora coming up with the best way to motivate Kiké, and then not undercutting that when talking to the press. And of course, when Opening Day comes, he can tell Kiké that he almost earned the leadoff spot and bat him 5th vs. RHP. Which is still "the heart of the order" and hardly a dis. I'll also add that as much as the front office likes not to interfere with managerial decisions, if by some unfathomable chance Cora is serious about this, I believe that Bloom would tell him "no, you can't do that."
Let me point out again that pushing Verdugo down to 2 or 3 means that he and Rafael Devers are going to face a LHP instead of a RHP in the late innings of more games than not. Verdugo's platoon split is tiny (117 wRC+ v. 113 the last 3 years), but that's against the average LHP. Almost every LHR reliever in an MLB bullpen is tougher than average against LHB. Devers is 130 / 77, and 148 / 82 the last 2 years. The three-batter rule will help him hugely if he's surrounded by RHB; it'll be very iffy to being in a LHR to face him if Kiké and Dalbec (or even CV) are the next two hitters. Move Verdugo to 2, and bringing in a LHR to face him, JDM, Devers is a no-brainer.
I'll furthermore add that challenging a guy with a difficult new job for which he seems to be grossly underqualified, and which he can practice in a meaningless situation, is one thing psychologically, and actually doing it when it's important is completely different. You can erase all the progress he makes if he feels pressure as a leadoff guy and starts the season badly.
Eric, just because you (and a lot of us) think it's not exactly a great idea to bat Kiké leadoff doesn't mean that Cora isn't going through with it because he is. He's not going to tell the press Kiké is leading off just about every chance he gets and then suddenly not do it. And Bloom isn't going to micromanage the lineup for Cora. If he felt he needed to do that he wouldn't have hired Cora in the first place. And Bloom is not going to dictate lineups to Cora. It is not Bloom's job to make out a lineup order and he doesn't strike me as a guy who would do that. As a matter of fact I remember him doing a podcast with Carrabis and the subject I believe came up and he made it clear that kind of thing is not the way he does things. Nor should he, frankly. He's going to let his manager manage. I vehemently disagree with the move, but I'm realistic enough to see how it's going to go down. If and when it's clear it doesn't work Cora will adjust. I don't like that they're going to spend games doing this, but I think at some point Verdugo will take it over and then hopefully Duran will hit so damn much he'll force his way into the majors (hopefully with improved CF defense) and hopefully soon thereafter into the leadoff spot where he could be a force if he develops as hoped for (although we all know that's not a guarantee either).
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