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2021 Lineup / Batting Order
jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 23, 2021 19:45:34 GMT -5
"We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else." Except the part in bold is laughably, ludicrously untrue. I mean, their incumbent leadoff hitter had a .367 OBP and led the team in bWAR. You knew that, and yet you typed that anyway. He's batting second. They don't want any of the 3-4-5 guys batting second. They probably don't want their catcher batting 2nd. You know that, and yet you needed for me to spell it out for you. Given those facts, they are clearly saying to themselves "We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else."
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Post by incandenza on Mar 23, 2021 20:43:51 GMT -5
Except the part in bold is laughably, ludicrously untrue. I mean, their incumbent leadoff hitter had a .367 OBP and led the team in bWAR. You knew that, and yet you typed that anyway. He's batting second. They don't want any of the 3-4-5 guys batting second. They probably don't want their catcher batting 2nd. You know that, and yet you needed for me to spell it out for you. Given those facts, they are clearly saying to themselves "We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else." Do you know this, or are you just asserting it? If it's true, what's the rationale?
It seems perfectly intuitive to me to have a lineup that starts Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers-JDM. I suppose one argument would be that they'd want JDM at #5 rather than any of the guys who would come after him, and whatever the dropoff from Verdugo to Kiké would be at #1 would be made up for by having a better hitter at #5.
I don't buy the logic, though: as I've said before, it would be fine against lefties, but Kiké's .286 career OBP against righties just seems conversation-endingly unplayable at leadoff to me. Like, it's self-evidently reasonable to you to say "We don't have anyone better" than a .286 OBP guy for leadoff in two-thirds of their games? Really? I'd rather start Marwin at leadoff against righties, let alone Verdugo.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 23, 2021 20:48:57 GMT -5
Except the part in bold is laughably, ludicrously untrue. I mean, their incumbent leadoff hitter had a .367 OBP and led the team in bWAR. You knew that, and yet you typed that anyway. He's batting second. They don't want any of the 3-4-5 guys batting second. They probably don't want their catcher batting 2nd. You know that, and yet you needed for me to spell it out for you. Given those facts, they are clearly saying to themselves "We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else." I favor Dugie hitting two, and have said so a couple of times, for the reasons that all of us who prefer that lineup to having Dugie hitting leadoff. But here is one more view. Dugie is more likely to beat out a potentially double play than KH. Hitting Dugie second also make the R/L structure of the order a little better.
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Post by soxinjersey on Mar 23, 2021 22:46:23 GMT -5
I think my memory is right here. When Eric was stumping for Kiké months ago, he wrote about something anomalous in his profile as a hitter: Kiké hit much better late in games against good relievers than he did earlier in games against starters on their second and third times through the line-up. In other words, he has performed surprisingly well in pressure situations the first time he has seen a pitcher. Why bat him lead-off? Perhaps because many good-to-great pitchers are most vulnerable in the first inning. If Kiké can bring his late-game mentality to the first inning, maybe that gives the Sox a better chance to get some early runs against the Gerrit Coles and Corey Klubers of the baseball world.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 24, 2021 4:30:12 GMT -5
I think my memory is right here. When Eric was stumping for Kiké months ago, he wrote about something anomalous in his profile as a hitter: Kiké hit much better late in games against good relievers than he did earlier in games against starters on their second and third times through the line-up. In other words, he has performed surprisingly well in pressure situations the first time he has seen a pitcher. Why bat him lead-off? Perhaps because many good-to-great pitchers are most vulnerable in the first inning. If Kiké can bring his late-game mentality to the first inning, maybe that gives the Sox a better chance to get some early runs against the Gerrit Coles and Corey Klubers of the baseball world. Actually, Kiké has really struggled against everyone the first time he faces them, but has been terrific after that. But I think you may well be you're correct in remebering this split as a clue here. If you can get his first vs. second time split to ordinary, by raising the first time numbers, he's a legit top 5 hitter.
Aha, found the numbers. TFP PA* K% UBB% HRC BABIP BA OBP SLG 1st 1317 .228 .090 .046 .255 .218 .296 .378 after 674 .174 .080 .060 .303 .282 .346 .515 He goes less deep in counts after seeing guys the first time. So that's the "hunting fastballs early in the count" element they've said he's working on. And it would surprise me if the first batter of the game didn't get more early-count fastballs than usual. Wow. In 2019, MLB hitters put the first pitch in play 10.9% of the time. P1 .354 .364 .630 After .239 .318 .409 Diff .115 .046 .221
Kiké in his career has done this 8.7% of the time, 20% less often. But his split is much bigger: P1 .364 .365 .691 After .228 .308 .398 Diff .136 .057 .293
Now, some of being a better hitter on the first pitch may be that he's more selective. In which case, that's a skill that will translate to the first PA of the game really well, at least for the first week or so. Every pitcher tries to throw a first pitch strike to start the game.
The key will be how he deals with a 1-0 count once they realize what he's doing. I'll look at that next.
Here's the thing: the lineup after Kiké is very close to the sabermetric ideal. It's Verdugo, JDM, Xander, Devers, where the ideal swaps JDM and X. But that ideal, where they swap the 2 and 3 hitters from the conventional, is to maximize the first inning by not having the best hitter come up with 2 outs and nobody on. And they have followed it in this lineup; Xander either bats with someone on in the first or leads off the second.. After the first inning, JDM before Xander is probably just as good, and in fact it separates your two biggest HR threats in JDM and Devers.
It's also seems to be true that hitting as the first batter of the game is a specific skill. Verdugo in his career has hit .322 / .378 / .650 (156 PA) leading off innings after the first, but in his 34 PA leading off the game he's .281 / .324 / .375.
So you can think of this lineup as Kiké hitting 9th, but he also leads off the game because they think he can do that really well. After that, he's the lesser talent who turns over the lineup to the studs. The only problem with a guy who might be your 5th or 6th hitter batting leadoff is that he gets an extra PA every game, and everyone else loses 1/8 of one. But if he can rock out that extra PA, the problem becomes a benefit.
And the related thought is that the things he needs to do to excel as the first batter of the game overlap with the things he needs to do to become a better hitter against all pitchers the first time he sees them. That would help him hit relievers. But in the meantime, you've taken the first time he faces a SP, which he's really struggled with, and given him the special circumstance where pitchers are much more predictable.
That really makes sense.
Jimoh's notion that they're just trying something at random is hilarious. I know the approach smart F.O's were taking to decisions like this fifteen years ago because I was literally the guy doing it. They probably have five guys with a finger in this thought process. And Cora's statement that "he's done everything he needs to do" to earn the leadoff spot only makes sense if they had some specific approach or set of adjustments to learn in order to make this work.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 24, 2021 5:20:14 GMT -5
I honestly like the concept that he's your Number 9 hitter except once a game.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2021 9:25:50 GMT -5
I think my memory is right here. When Eric was stumping for Kiké months ago, he wrote about something anomalous in his profile as a hitter: Kiké hit much better late in games against good relievers than he did earlier in games against starters on their second and third times through the line-up. In other words, he has performed surprisingly well in pressure situations the first time he has seen a pitcher. Why bat him lead-off? Perhaps because many good-to-great pitchers are most vulnerable in the first inning. If Kiké can bring his late-game mentality to the first inning, maybe that gives the Sox a better chance to get some early runs against the Gerrit Coles and Corey Klubers of the baseball world. ...
So you can think of this lineup as Kiké hitting 9th, but he also leads off the game because they think he can do that really well. After that, he's the lesser talent who turns over the lineup to the studs. The only problem with a guy who might be your 5th or 6th hitter batting leadoff is that he gets an extra PA every game, and everyone else loses 1/8 of one. But if he can rock out that extra PA, the problem becomes a benefit.
This is kind of a big black box though: is he really likely to be so good at this specific skill of leading off a game? Why? Just because of this One Weird Trick that he's hunting fastballs early in the count now? Is that really going to make him a totally different kind of hitter than the .286 OBP against RHP guy he's been? Will the league not be able to adjust to that?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 24, 2021 15:47:36 GMT -5
He's batting second. They don't want any of the 3-4-5 guys batting second. They probably don't want their catcher batting 2nd. You know that, and yet you needed for me to spell it out for you. Given those facts, they are clearly saying to themselves "We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else." Do you know this, or are you just asserting it? If it's true, what's the rationale?
It seems perfectly intuitive to me to have a lineup that starts Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers-JDM. I suppose one argument would be that they'd want JDM at #5 rather than any of the guys who would come after him, and whatever the dropoff from Verdugo to Kiké would be at #1 would be made up for by having a better hitter at #5.
I don't buy the logic, though: as I've said before, it would be fine against lefties, but Kiké's .286 career OBP against righties just seems conversation-endingly unplayable at leadoff to me. Like, it's self-evidently reasonable to you to say "We don't have anyone better" than a .286 OBP guy for leadoff in two-thirds of their games? Really? I'd rather start Marwin at leadoff against righties, let alone Verdugo.
Sorry this is getting confusing because of people quoting people out of context. Eric (after saying earlier that there was zero chance that Kiké would start the year at leadoff), said that nobody could possibly come up with a rationale that the Sox would say to themselves for batting him first. I suggested "We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else." Eric offered with his usual charm that Verdugo would be better. I answered that he was batting second, which I guess is a cross between what I really think and what they would be saying to themselves as a reason to hit Kiké first. So (I might have said), solving the problem of not having an ideal leadoff hitter by not having an ideal #2 hitter is like fixing a flat tire on your left front tire by switching it with your with right front tire: you still have a flat tire. I said earlier that the problem is mainly that they only have four (we hope!) good OBP guys. Nothing is certain or definite here, but I'm not just conjecturing, but going off news stories, and Cora's daily press briefings, though few statements have been conclusive. Kiké wants to hit first, Cora has challenged him to earn it, Cora says he has met the challenge, though he has not anointed him. Verdugo prefers to hit second; I think it's been said he will hit first or second. Cora has said JD will not hit 2nd, and that there will be separation between Verdugo and Devers as LHH. Your suggestion of Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers-JDM is fine, except for the problem of someone possibly wilting under the pressure of hitting #5, but nothing points in that direction, although we do not know what will happen when Kiké does not start. Chris has correctly said that there will be lots of lineups, and probably soon. The only things I am certain about is that it was dead wrong to say there is zero chance that Kiké will start the year as leadoff, and dead wrong to say there is no possible rationale for batting him first It's fine to say it would be better not to have him first, but not that it's insane to bat him first, or that Chaim would call Cora on the carpet if he did it. I also think that Cora seems more interested in getting the maximum performance out of his players by using different techniques on each, and that this matters more to him than the marginal benefit of having the "ideal" batting order. Isn't that right? Different techniques for Kiké, ERod, Bogaerts, Devers--even, he has said, for his two twin boys, which have different personalities. That's why I said they could be thinking "this guy seems like he might hit better [at leadoff] than he would anywhere else." Which could be true. I don't think Kiké's lifetime OBP against righties is dispositive; I think Cora has pointed to his lack of a split in 2018: .338 OBP vs RHP, .335 vs LHP, when he set his personal record for PA (and when Dodger Stadium had a park factor of .939 for hits and .808 for walks, not that that is a huge deal; Fenway is higher for both). But nothing is certain here. It's all through a glass darkly.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 24, 2021 16:06:21 GMT -5
Do you know this, or are you just asserting it? If it's true, what's the rationale?
It seems perfectly intuitive to me to have a lineup that starts Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers-JDM. I suppose one argument would be that they'd want JDM at #5 rather than any of the guys who would come after him, and whatever the dropoff from Verdugo to Kiké would be at #1 would be made up for by having a better hitter at #5.
I don't buy the logic, though: as I've said before, it would be fine against lefties, but Kiké's .286 career OBP against righties just seems conversation-endingly unplayable at leadoff to me. Like, it's self-evidently reasonable to you to say "We don't have anyone better" than a .286 OBP guy for leadoff in two-thirds of their games? Really? I'd rather start Marwin at leadoff against righties, let alone Verdugo.
Sorry this is getting confusing because of people quoting people out of context. Eric (after saying earlier that there was zero chance that Kiké would start the year at leadoff), said that nobody could possibly come up with a rationale that the Sox would say to themselves for batting him first. I suggested "We don't have anyone better (for now) and this guy seems like he might hit better there than he would anywhere else." Eric offered with his usual charm that Verdugo would be better. I answered that he was batting second, which I guess is a cross between what I really think and what they would be saying to themselves as a reason to hit Kiké first. So (I might have said), solving the problem of not having an ideal leadoff hitter by not having an ideal #2 hitter is like fixing a flat tire on your left front tire by switching it with your with right front tire: you still have a flat tire. I said earlier that the problem is mainly that they only have four (we hope!) good OBP guys. Nothing is certain or definite here, but I'm not just conjecturing, but going off news stories, and Cora's daily press briefings, though few statements have been conclusive. Kiké wants to hit first, Cora has challenged him to earn it, Cora says he has met the challenge, though he has not anointed him. Verdugo prefers to hit second; I think it's been said he will hit first or second. Cora has said JD will not hit 2nd, and that there will be separation between Verdugo and Devers as LHH. Your suggestion of Verdugo-Bogaerts-Devers-JDM is fine, except for the problem of someone possibly wilting under the pressure of hitting #5, but nothing points in that direction, although we do not know what will happen when Kiké does not start. Chris has correctly said that there will lots of lineups, and probably soon. The only things I am certain about is that it was dead wrong to say there is zero chance that Kiké will start the year as leadoff, and dead wrong to say there is no possible rationale for batting him first It's fine to say it would be better not to have him first, but not that it's insane to bat him first, or that Chaim would call Cora on the carpet if he did it. I also think that Cora seems more interested in getting the maximum performance out of his players by using different techniques on each, and that this matters more to him than the marginal benefit of having the "ideal" batting order. Isn't that right? Different techniques for Kiké, ERod, Bogaerts, Devers--even, he has said, for his two twin boys, which have different personalities. That's why I said they could be thinking "this guy seems like he might hit better [at leadoff] than he would anywhere else." Which could be true. I don't think Kiké's lifetime OBP against righties is dispositive; I think Cora has pointed to his lack of a split in 2018: .338 OBP vs RHP, .335 vs LHP, when he set his personal record for PA (and when Dodger Stadium had a park factor of .939 for hits and .808 for walks, not that that is a huge deal; Fenway is higher for both). But nothing is certain here. It's all through a glass darkly. I'm no fan of Hernandez batting leadoff and think Verdugo should be doing it, but I think you make a good point about the way Cora manages players, on an individual basis, trying to find a button to push that gives the player their best chance to succeed. I think Cora sees Hernandez as a guy who at his peak can give them the closest thing to what Mookie gave them in 2018. While I'm dubious about that, I think Cora is challenging him to be a guy who can bat .275 with some walks and 20 HR pop, which is kind of a best case scenario you can think about for him - a 2018 type of Kiké season in a way. It's not unlike how Cora challenged E-Rod to be better and be accountable as you can remember when E-Rod used an excuse for being lazy on a defensive play during Game 2 of the ALDS, and Cora didn't let him get away with that, or the way Cora is on Devers to play defense the way he thinks he is capable of playing - the skills are there. I think that is clearly one of Cora's strengths as a manager so while I think this experiment will ultimately end with either Verdugo taking over the role or Duran eventually assuming it if he can prove himself in the majors, all the while as I complain about it, I can see Cora's rational for it. This isn't quite like Butch Hobson saying that Billy Hatcher is a "scrappy" ballplayer and that's why he is batting a sub .300 OBP guy leadoff. Cora knows the standard he's looking for in a leadoff hitter and thinks Hernandez has the ability to fill the role if he's challenged to be the best he can be, which Cora feels hasn't been the case with him. And if Hernandez doesn't "earn" it, Cora will take that responsibility away from him instead of doubling down. And yes, as far as Eric's assertion that it wasn't going to happen, it's been pretty damn obvious the entire time that the opposite was going to occur. Whether I agree or not, I'll voice my dissent, but I also know that Cora manages in a way that I don't agree with yet he seems to have a knack of making it work. There were so many decisions he made in 2018 that I didn't necessarily agree with, but you can't argue the results. I figured the way he used his starters in the post-season would backfire on him and leave the team running out of gas later in the post-season series, but instead it worked swimmingly - it may have impacted 2019, but flags fly forever and it's flying because of Cora's decisions that I was fretting about. PHing Nunez for Devers? Of course, it worked. That's why I can give Cora a ton of rope even if I have a real disagreement about his strategies. Agree with him or not, he has earned my respect as a a manager.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 24, 2021 16:29:16 GMT -5
Cora at presser today: we're still working on it, but basically it will be Kiké, Verdugo, then JD and Bogie (in some order, though Bogie could hit 1, 2, 3), then Devers. Vasquez will hit 7th, sometimes higher, Franchy and Dalbec will be basically 8 and 9 ("there's no breathing space when you face us")
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 24, 2021 16:38:00 GMT -5
Cora at presser today: weâÂÂre still working on it, but basically it will be Kiké, Verdugo, then JD and Bogie (in some order, though Bogie could hit 1, 2, 3), then Devers. Vasquez will hit 7th, sometimes higher, Franchy and Dalbec will be basically 8 and 9 (âÂÂthereâÂÂs no breathing space when you face usâÂÂ) Then by process of elimination that would place Renfroe 6th, I would think, with Vazquez moving up to 6th if Renfroe hits the bench. So a likely lineup would be: Kiké Verdugo JDM X Devers Renfroe Vazquez Cordero Dalbec I don't think that basic lineup structure will last long.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 24, 2021 20:05:57 GMT -5
Cora at presser today: weâÂÂre still working on it, but basically it will be Kiké, Verdugo, then JD and Bogie (in some order, though Bogie could hit 1, 2, 3), then Devers. Vasquez will hit 7th, sometimes higher, Franchy and Dalbec will be basically 8 and 9 (âÂÂthereâÂÂs no breathing space when you face usâÂÂ) Then by process of elimination that would place Renfroe 6th, I would think, with Vazquez moving up to 6th if Renfroe hits the bench. So a likely lineup would be: Kiké Verdugo JDM X Devers Renfroe Vazquez Cordero Dalbec I don't think that basic lineup structure will last long. Most obviously, Dalbec 9 is just to wait until he gets the K's down. Renfroe 6 against RHP is a big weakness unless they've quietly tweaked his approach; they did say that they thought he could be more than a platoon player when they signed him, and he'd have to hit RHP better than he has to make that work.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 25, 2021 6:23:54 GMT -5
Then by process of elimination that would place Renfroe 6th, I would think, with Vazquez moving up to 6th if Renfroe hits the bench. So a likely lineup would be: Kiké Verdugo JDM X Devers Renfroe Vazquez Cordero Dalbec I don't think that basic lineup structure will last long. Most obviously, Dalbec 9 is just to wait until he gets the K's down. Renfroe 6 against RHP is a big weakness unless they've quietly tweaked his approach; they did say that they thought he could be more than a platoon player when they signed him, and he'd have to hit RHP better than he has to make that work. Yes, there are five guys or even six if we worry about JD who may not hit as well as we need them too, or may be great. Lots of possible flux.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 25, 2021 10:49:18 GMT -5
Abraham in today's Globe has a story on Arroyo losing 15 pounds and impressing Cora with his ability to be the backup SS, so there's one way he's going to be helpful even if Renfroe gets the majority of starts as the 9th guy vs. RHP. Very interestingly, Cora waffles on Kiké's PT by position: "We're going to use a lot of guys, but obviously Kiké is going to play a lot of second base." Well, that sounds like he gets the majority of starts against RHP, right? His next sentence: "I think he'll end up playing second most of the time when we have the lead" (emphasis mine). Which implies a move from the OF, which is one of the first things Cora talked about in ST.
Here's two things I think are true:
1) The Sox will have a really sophisticated assessment of who should start each game, based on the identities of the starting pitchers, the makeup of the opponent's bullpen, pitcher / hitter matchup projections, and defensive evaluations. That's not anything like a law or order; it's just information for Cora to use. He'll have a lot of information that transcends sabermetrics.
2) And they don't bother doing this in ST.
So nobody knows right now how often the advice is going to say Arroyo 2B, Kiké CF, Verdugo RF as opposed to Kiké 2B, Verdugo CF, Renfroe RF (or throw Gonzalez into the mix). Certainly not us, and I'd guess that the analytics guys are still tweaking their matchup model based on new data from ST, and will be tweaking it continually during the season.
Cora's second sentence does imply that he knows that there will be a substantial number of games where Arroyo will be the better choice. It will be interesting to see how many times they use the Arroyo lineup over the last week of ST.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 25, 2021 15:19:32 GMT -5
The above is one of the most interesting parts of the spring training game notes. Seeing where guys have played, and how much, can tell us some of the club's thoughts, I think. In no particular order: - Dalbec has gotten a lot of run at 3B, and nearly nobody else has. I think he's the backup 3B, with either Chavis or Gonzalez serving as Devers' actual backup in that they'd play first while Dalbec moves over. I think it's smart not to take that position out of his toolbox yet. - I am not surprised to hear the comments about Arroyo - they are clearly auditioning him to back up short based on IP there. - Kiké Hernandez has only played up the middle still. Looks like they're likely to use him primarily in CF and 2B (I can't see him at SS). - Marwin Gonzalez has played no 3B or CF, but everywhere else. I think he's going to be more of a true utility guy than Hernandez, which makes sense given that one will be starting and the other in a truer bench role. The lack of a true backup SS is still striking. If something were to happen to Bogaerts more than a month in, I think they'd think very hard about just giving Downs a shot unless he's struggling at the ATS/in AAA. I also think they'll have their eyes out for SS's coming available now with cuts, etc., but again, that player would be taking Arroyo's roster spot, which again explains why seeing if he can play short in a backup capacity makes a lot of sense.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 25, 2021 15:35:56 GMT -5
View AttachmentThe above is one of the most interesting parts of the spring training game notes. Seeing where guys have played, and how much, can tell us some of the club's thoughts, I think. In no particular order: - Dalbec has gotten a lot of run at 3B, and nearly nobody else has. I think he's the backup 3B, with either Chavis or Gonzalez serving as Devers' actual backup in that they'd play first while Dalbec moves over. I think it's smart not to take that position out of his toolbox yet. - I am not surprised to hear the comments about Arroyo - they are clearly auditioning him to back up short based on IP there. - Kiké Hernandez has only played up the middle still. Looks like they're likely to use him primarily in CF and 2B (I can't see him at SS). - Marwin Gonzalez has played no 3B or CF, but everywhere else. I think he's going to be more of a true utility guy than Hernandez, which makes sense given that one will be starting and the other in a truer bench role. The lack of a true backup SS is still striking. If something were to happen to Bogaerts more than a month in, I think they'd think very hard about just giving Downs a shot unless he's struggling at the ATS/in AAA. I also think they'll have their eyes out for SS's coming available now with cuts, etc., but again, that player would be taking Arroyo's roster spot, which again explains why seeing if he can play short in a backup capacity makes a lot of sense. Wouldn't they look more at Arauz if X were to miss a month? I would think they'd let Downs continue his development as a 2b? Isn't Arauz a better defensive SS anyways?
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 25, 2021 16:11:25 GMT -5
View AttachmentThe above is one of the most interesting parts of the spring training game notes. Seeing where guys have played, and how much, can tell us some of the club's thoughts, I think. In no particular order: - Dalbec has gotten a lot of run at 3B, and nearly nobody else has. I think he's the backup 3B, with either Chavis or Gonzalez serving as Devers' actual backup in that they'd play first while Dalbec moves over. I think it's smart not to take that position out of his toolbox yet. - I am not surprised to hear the comments about Arroyo - they are clearly auditioning him to back up short based on IP there. - Kiké Hernandez has only played up the middle still. Looks like they're likely to use him primarily in CF and 2B (I can't see him at SS). - Marwin Gonzalez has played no 3B or CF, but everywhere else. I think he's going to be more of a true utility guy than Hernandez, which makes sense given that one will be starting and the other in a truer bench role. The lack of a true backup SS is still striking. If something were to happen to Bogaerts more than a month in, I think they'd think very hard about just giving Downs a shot unless he's struggling at the ATS/in AAA. I also think they'll have their eyes out for SS's coming available now with cuts, etc., but again, that player would be taking Arroyo's roster spot, which again explains why seeing if he can play short in a backup capacity makes a lot of sense. Wouldn't they look more at Arauz if X were to miss a month? I would think they'd let Downs continue his development as a 2b? Isn't Arauz a better defensive SS anyways? Xander has been as durable as anybody in baseball and is 28 years old. Have to plan on him being out there 150 times. I agree Arauz is probably added if X to miss more than a couple days.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 25, 2021 16:26:16 GMT -5
View AttachmentThe above is one of the most interesting parts of the spring training game notes. Seeing where guys have played, and how much, can tell us some of the club's thoughts, I think. In no particular order: - Dalbec has gotten a lot of run at 3B, and nearly nobody else has. I think he's the backup 3B, with either Chavis or Gonzalez serving as Devers' actual backup in that they'd play first while Dalbec moves over. I think it's smart not to take that position out of his toolbox yet. - I am not surprised to hear the comments about Arroyo - they are clearly auditioning him to back up short based on IP there. - Kiké Hernandez has only played up the middle still. Looks like they're likely to use him primarily in CF and 2B (I can't see him at SS). - Marwin Gonzalez has played no 3B or CF, but everywhere else. I think he's going to be more of a true utility guy than Hernandez, which makes sense given that one will be starting and the other in a truer bench role. The lack of a true backup SS is still striking. If something were to happen to Bogaerts more than a month in, I think they'd think very hard about just giving Downs a shot unless he's struggling at the ATS/in AAA. I also think they'll have their eyes out for SS's coming available now with cuts, etc., but again, that player would be taking Arroyo's roster spot, which again explains why seeing if he can play short in a backup capacity makes a lot of sense. Wouldn't they look more at Arauz if X were to miss a month? I would think they'd let Downs continue his development as a 2b? Isn't Arauz a better defensive SS anyways? I guess but I find it interesting that Downs got more time at short this spring than Araúz did. I'm not quite sure what that says, as it could just be a product of Downs getting most of his run early followed by them wanting to get a good look at Arroyo at short, but still, it's interesting.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 25, 2021 18:24:35 GMT -5
Given that the Sox expect X to be the man for years to come, it is reasonable to think that the first part of the Downs/Arauz equation revolves around whether either can become the 2B of the future.
As for what happens this year if X is lost for more than a few days, the Sox are most likely to use either or both oh Hernandez or Marwin early in the season with Arauz coming up if X goes off the 26 man roster. Later in the season, results at Worcester are likely to be determinative.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 25, 2021 18:41:34 GMT -5
Given that the Sox expect X to be the man for years to come, it is reasonable to think that the first part of the Downs/Arauz equation revolves around whether either can become the 2B of the future. As for what happens this year if X is lost for more than a few days, the Sox are most likely to use either or both oh Hernandez or Marwin early in the season with Arauz coming up if X goes off the 26 man roster. Later in the season, results at Worcester are likely to be determinative.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 25, 2021 18:43:11 GMT -5
As if on order, Arauz in at SS.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 25, 2021 20:49:48 GMT -5
As if on order, Arauz in at SS. And he goes yard
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 7, 2021 11:28:39 GMT -5
Sox leading off the game are .400 / .400 / .600. MLB OPS is .642. Sox rank 8th. Granted, a lot of that is Arroyo's lucky 2B, but I'm not trying to be predictive here, just looking at results.
Sox ranked 6th in MLB in 2018, but 20th and 14th the last two years.
In the other 3 games, by not hitting 8th or 9th, Kiké took PA's away from Verdugo and Vazquez.
And after the first inning, JDM is the virtual #2 hitter, and he's been the best hitter on the team, and that's appropriate.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2021 9:55:45 GMT -5
Twelve games in, we can say the following:
Cora has a regular lineup vs. LHP: Arroyo at 2B, and an outfield of Verdugo, Kiké, and Renfroe from left to right.
The surprise here is Arroyo starting against LHP when he's always had a reverse platoon split. But there's no good reason why any RHB should have a reverse split. As soon as he started his first game at 2B vs. a LHP, I started wondering if one of the reasons they like him is that they thought they could tweak him and fix it.
Statcast, actual line, then expected.
RHP, 16 PA
.250 / .250 / .438 = .293 wOBA
.160 / .160 / .222 = .162
LHP, 13 PA .385 / .385 / .538 = .400
.433 / .433 / .602 = .442
Against RHP, Cordero always plays LF. Verdugo always plays CF or RF. Arroyo and Gonzalez split 2B more or less equally (3 times each so far), while Kiké and Renfroe split the 3rd OF position, with Verdugo switching between CF and RF. Cora's used Kiké-Verdugo 4 times and Verdugo-Renfore 3.
The upshot of this is that the players getting the most starts at the four platoon positions are Arroyo, Cordero, Hernandez, and Renfore. Verdugo is the most regular OF, but he's splitting time between all 3 positions. They really have 10 regulars, if you define "regular" as a guy who starts the majority of games.
The Kiké / Renfroe platoon vs. RHP would appear to be the placeholder for Duran. And of course Santana (short-term) and Downs (long) are waiting in the wings at 2B.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2021 14:39:45 GMT -5
It's kind of funny that Verdugo doesn't have the most games played at any position right now - he's not even within 3 at any of the OF positions! - and he's one of their core hitters. As one of the Keepers of the Org Page who gets kind of anal about getting lineups exact, it makes me want to scream a little.
I'd add to the above analysis though that 2 of the Hernandez CF/Verdugo RF lineups against RHP were while Renfroe was hurt and one was in the doubleheader yesterday, when they'd be more likely to work guys in, so I think I'd say against RHP it's actually kind of a clear Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe OF against RHP, but Cora is maybe more likely to work in a bench guy against a RHP than against a LHP?
It's just funny that I'd probably still list the starting lineup against RHP as Hernandez at 2B and Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe from left-to-right, but they've actually run that lineup out there just once all year.
EDIT: More stuff.
Renfroe has started 4 of 6 vs. RHP for which he's been healthy. Arroyo just 4 of 9.
Gonzalez has started 10 of the 13 games. Taking out the games Renfroe was hurt, it's 7 of 10.
JDM's one-game IL stint winds up not really mattering because Vazquez DH'ed when he otherwise probably sits.
In 13 games they've used 12 defensive lineups.
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