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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 18, 2021 13:12:35 GMT -5
It's never too early to start speculating about the 2021 Rule 5 draft and potential 40-man roster adds. Due to the lack of minor league baseball last year, I think we're going to see a lot of teams with tricky 40-man decisions. That could mean that teams will leave more players exposed, but it's really hard to tell right now. Below are a look at some players I think the Red Sox could protect (full list of Rule 5 eligible players is here: www.soxprospects.com/rule5.htm ). Slam dunks: Jarren Duran - probably will be added before the end of the 2021 season Jeter Downs - less likely to be added before the end of the 2021 season, but very close to the majors Thaddeus Ward - a good season could get him close to the majors, probably a 2022 eta Gilberto Jimenez - farther away, but I'd imagine he'd be selected due to his speed/defensive profile Toss-ups (all guys that could fit in a relief profile): Brayan Bello Durbin Feltman Frank German AJ Politi Josh Winckowski Interesting, but unlikely: Pedro Castellanos - interesting to see what the power is like, but his profile doesn't fit for a Rule 5 pick Kole Cottam - Red Sox have given him a lot of run in major league camp Kutter Crawford - coming back from TJ, but was interesting before that. Wait and see on him Alex Scherff - I doubt it, but I do recall there were some mentions about him being an under the radar pick this past December. Chase Shugart - coming off knee surgery, but has some prospect status and could have some helium if he performs with Portland
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 18, 2021 13:52:33 GMT -5
It's going to be a very weird Rule 5 year. Like, Danny Diaz is eligible, which is insane to me. A lot more of these guys than usual you want to hit with the "we'll see how they perform" label.
The thing this thread did just alert me to, though, is they've got a potential logjam next year, especially if some of the guys in the second and third group pop: Marwin, Ottavino, ERod, and Barnes are the only guys on the 40-man who are definitely free agents next year, and ERod would probably need to be replaced by an MLB SP unless there's a pitching explosion in AAA. And I'm not sure they can just let Barnes and Ottavino both walk without bringing in at least one back-end RP. So in other words, they're going to have to DFA guys to even get the four obvious guys on the 40-man. If they wind up needing to protect anyone in that second group, that could influence deals at the deadline no matter whether they're contending, not unlike 2011 when they traded Chiang, Federowicz, and Fife at the deadline (and to a lesser extent belonging in that group, Navarro a few days before).
EDIT To be clear, not saying they're going to move the prospects. There's plenty of fungible relief fodder on the 40 that can be moved, for example. Just saying it's not like last year where they had all kinds of room for guys.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 18, 2021 14:04:57 GMT -5
And just to follow up - pretty much every team is going to have this issue. Will there be an increased emphasis on scouting the Rule 5 types across the league? Will teams try to push their prospects that are close to Rule 5 eligibility? It's really hard to tell how this will shake out right now, but it's certainly something to track.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 18, 2021 14:07:20 GMT -5
It's going to be a very weird Rule 5 year. Like, Danny Diaz is eligible, which is insane to me. A lot more of these guys than usual you want to hit with the "we'll see how they perform" label. The thing this thread did just alert me to, though, is they've got a potential logjam next year, especially if some of the guys in the second and third group pop: Marwin, Ottavino, ERod, and Barnes are the only guys on the 40-man who are definitely free agents next year, and ERod would probably need to be replaced by an MLB SP unless there's a pitching explosion in AAA. And I'm not sure they can just let Barnes and Ottavino both walk without bringing in at least one back-end RP. So in other words, they're going to have to DFA guys to even get the four obvious guys on the 40-man. If they wind up needing to protect anyone in that second group, that could influence deals at the deadline no matter whether they're contending, not unlike 2011 when they traded Chiang, Federowicz, and Fife at the deadline (and to a lesser extent belonging in that group, Navarro a few days before). EDIT To be clear, not saying they're going to move the prospects. There's plenty of fungible relief fodder on the 40 that can be moved, for example. Just saying it's not like last year where they had all kinds of room for guys. I wonder if MLB would consider making changes to the Rule 5 time frame, at least for a 2-3 years, since so many young prospects lost a season of seasoning and the teams lost that year of evaluation.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 18, 2021 18:04:25 GMT -5
It's going to be a very weird Rule 5 year. Like, Danny Diaz is eligible, which is insane to me. A lot more of these guys than usual you want to hit with the "we'll see how they perform" label. The thing this thread did just alert me to, though, is they've got a potential logjam next year, especially if some of the guys in the second and third group pop: Marwin, Ottavino, ERod, and Barnes are the only guys on the 40-man who are definitely free agents next year, and ERod would probably need to be replaced by an MLB SP unless there's a pitching explosion in AAA. And I'm not sure they can just let Barnes and Ottavino both walk without bringing in at least one back-end RP. So in other words, they're going to have to DFA guys to even get the four obvious guys on the 40-man. If they wind up needing to protect anyone in that second group, that could influence deals at the deadline no matter whether they're contending, not unlike 2011 when they traded Chiang, Federowicz, and Fife at the deadline (and to a lesser extent belonging in that group, Navarro a few days before). EDIT To be clear, not saying they're going to move the prospects. There's plenty of fungible relief fodder on the 40 that can be moved, for example. Just saying it's not like last year where they had all kinds of room for guys. I wonder if MLB would consider making changes to the Rule 5 time frame, at least for a 2-3 years, since so many young prospects lost a season of seasoning and the teams lost that year of evaluation. The simplest thing would be to simply rule that 2020 doesn't count against the Rule 5.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 18, 2021 18:41:37 GMT -5
I wonder if MLB would consider making changes to the Rule 5 time frame, at least for a 2-3 years, since so many young prospects lost a season of seasoning and the teams lost that year of evaluation. The simplest thing would be to simply rule that 2020 doesn't count against the Rule 5. Yeah, this would work. Should cover every player affected by the lost season and only those affected. I think. It's a logical solution.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 18, 2021 18:59:56 GMT -5
The simplest thing would be to simply rule that 2020 doesn't count against the Rule 5. Yeah, this would work. Should cover every player affected by the lost season and only those affected. I think. It's a logical solution. Agree with you, but it's got to go thru the MLBPA and potentially hurt a player's service time, meaning it will never fly unless the union gets something in return. Nothing is free these days, even if it makes sense and is for the good of the game.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 18, 2021 22:08:31 GMT -5
Yeah, this would work. Should cover every player affected by the lost season and only those affected. I think. It's a logical solution. Agree with you, but it's got to go thru the MLBPA and potentially hurt a player's service time, meaning it will never fly unless the union gets something in return. Nothing is free these days, even if it makes sense and is for the good of the game. Well if it only didn't count toward Rule 5, but still counted for minor league free agency, it wouldn't be that bad. I just think they have such bigger fish to fry soon with the CBA there's no chance this get addressed.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 28, 2021 8:25:42 GMT -5
Not a lot has changed since March, but I'd expect the 40-man roster to look different by September.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on May 28, 2021 8:47:54 GMT -5
How do Rule 5 selections work in terms of players with long term injuries? For example, if Thad Ward requires TJ and the Sox were to let him be unprotected, could a team select him and stash him on the 60 day IL? I know this scenario is unlikely but if Houck, Seabold, Ward and Bazardo's arm injuries require extended rehabs into next year the team could be looking at a roster crunch this winter.
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Post by joshuacoffee on May 28, 2021 9:25:47 GMT -5
How do Rule 5 selections work in terms of players with long term injuries? For example, if Thad Ward requires TJ and the Sox were to let him be unprotected, could a team select him and stash him on the 60 day IL? I know this scenario is unlikely but if Houck, Seabold, Ward and Bazardo's arm injuries require extended rehabs into next year the team could be looking at a roster crunch this winter. Players have to be active on the big league roster for at least 90 days. If they don't acrue 90 days in the season that they are drafted, they have to complete the active time requirement the following season. In other words, if a team took Seabold, and it turns out that he need a surgery and and they put him on the 60 day IL until late in the season and he only ends up getting 40 days on the active roster, he would have to be on the active major league roster for 50 days the following season before they could send him down to the minors without having to offer him back to the Sox.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2021 9:44:47 GMT -5
Current full list, and I think I disagree that not much has changed in the first month - consider Scherff and Ort, for example, who have pitched themselves at least onto the radar. And I agree with DFA's point that it's really tough to project any crunch or not given that the 40-man could look quite different come December:
Rule-5 eligible Jecorrah Arnold Brayan Bello - must be added Cole Brannen Gary Calvo Marco Cardoso Pedro Castellanos Felix Cepeda Kole Cottam - could get interesting but likely too far away to get stashed as a catcher Kutter Crawford - could get interesting if he keeps pitching well Ricardo Cubillan Osvaldo De La Rosa Tyler Dearden - even with hot start, too far away Jonathan Diaz Danny Diaz Jeter Downs -obvious add Jarren Duran - will already be on the 40 by EOY Tyler Esplin Durbin Feltman - could get interesting probably gets added? Ryan Fernandez Ryan Fitzgerald Antoni Flores Frank German - probably gets added barring an awful year Rio Gomez Devlin Granberg Gilberto Jimenez - obvious add Jose Larez Dominic LoBrutto Bryan Lucas Charlie Madden Alan Marrero Elih Marrero Joan Martinez Alexander Montero Robinson Montero Oddanier Mosqueda Brendan Nail Brett Netzer Tanner Nishioka Kaleb Ort - will depend on how he pitches but does he get added? EDIT: Actually, he'll probably already be on the 40 if he pitches well enough to get protected... Michael Osinski Yusniel Padron-Artiles Aaron Perry Beiker Pineda Antonio Police AJ Politi - interesting case. Could get added? Ceddanne Rafaela - he's gotta be too far away but he's interesting Oscar Rangel Tyreque Reed - Not a profile that goes well with a R5 pick Jesus Rosillo Yasel Santana Zach Schellinger Alex Scherff - is he pitching himself into getting protected? John Schreiber Gregori Segovia Chase Shugart Miguel Suero Jake Thompson Wilker Vargas Thaddeus Ward - Will need to be added Grant Williams Josh Winckowski - Will probably need to be added?
MLFAs, if they re-sign Jose Adames - apparently touched 100 last night? He could get interesting. Roldani Baldwin Jett Bandy Seth Blair Austin Brice Matt Carasiti Enmanuel De Jesus Chad De La Guerra Jose Disla Jerry Downs Jose Espada Raynel Espinal - an interesting case Michael Gettys Stephen Gonsalves - another interesting case Daniel Gossett Zac Grotz Matt Hall Kyle Hart Chris Herrmann Zack Kelly Matt Kent Adam Lau Jack Lopez Tate Matheny Kevin McCarthy Joey Meneses Johan Mieses Yairo Munoz Josh Ockimey Tyler Olson Yorvin Pantoja Jhonny Pereda Bobby Poyner Cesar Puello Roniel Raudes Denyi Reyes Jeremy Rivera Héctor Rondón Caleb Simpson Marcus Walden Ryan Weber Brandon Workman
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2021 9:49:53 GMT -5
Looking at the above, and keeping in mind the number of prospects taking up spots on the 40-man already (Potts, Rosario, Groome), the Red Sox are really going to need guys like Wong, R. Hernandez, and Wilson to play their way into being actual MLB depth by the end of the year or they're going to need to deal from this depth. With a 26-man roster, you can't have 8-10 guys on the 40-man who can't contribute at the MLB level.
I think we can expect Bloom to be in wheelin' dealin' mode no matter what position the Sox are in at the deadline to try and use this depth, whether to buttress the MLB club or create more minor league depth.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on May 28, 2021 10:57:00 GMT -5
Looking at the above, and keeping in mind the number of prospects taking up spots on the 40-man already (Potts, Rosario, Groome), the Red Sox are really going to need guys like Wong, R. Hernandez, and Wilson to play their way into being actual MLB depth by the end of the year or they're going to need to deal from this depth. With a 26-man roster, you can't have 8-10 guys on the 40-man who can't contribute at the MLB level. I think we can expect Bloom to be in wheelin' dealin' mode no matter what position the Sox are in at the deadline to try and use this depth, whether to buttress the MLB club or create more minor league depth. Thanks for the clarification Chris. Your comment is basically what I was trying to get at. Based on how Bloom moved Chatham and Aybar for pieces I'd suspect he'd do the same for others currently on the 40 man. Fingers crossed on Houck, Seabold, Bazardo and Wards status down the road so it doesn't become an issue.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2021 11:16:07 GMT -5
Yeah, the key thing is the number of moving pieces - options that may or may not be picked up, guys on 2 year deals like Perez who may or may not still be here.
I think the only guy almost certainly not returning is Gonzalez. Even in the case of Barnes and Ottavino, even if they specifically leave, they need to be replaced by someone. Rodriguez too.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on May 28, 2021 11:57:39 GMT -5
Potts and Rosario seem like decent "Up or Out" candidates. If it doesn't seem like they'll be ready to contribute in the majors in 2022 I guess they get moved to clear space for "replacements" Downs and Jimenez. They are a little too young to be pushed out but the 40 man is getting tight!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2021 0:25:29 GMT -5
Yeah, the key thing is the number of moving pieces - options that may or may not be picked up, guys on 2 year deals like Perez who may or may not still be here. I think the only guy almost certainly not returning is Gonzalez. Even in the case of Barnes and Ottavino, even if they specifically leave, they need to be replaced by someone. Rodriguez too. It might be fun to divide the current 42-man into groups, and then do the math including your must-adds and possibilities.
Keepers (26): CV, X, Barnes*, E-Rod*, Sale, Devers, JDM*, Eovaldi, D. Hernandez, Dalbec, Plawecki, Verdugo, Valdez, Pivetta, Houck, Bazardo, Whitlock, Renfroe, Andriese*, Ottavino*, Kiké, Richards, Cordero, Sawamura; Mata, Seabold
Hopefuls (8): Taylor, Brasier, Chavis; Groome, Wong, Rosario, Potts, R. Hernandez
Fungible: (4) Brewer, Wilson, Arauz, Brennan
Moved On: (4) Perez (trade), Arroyo (trade), Gonzalez, Santana
Must adds (5): Bello, Downs, Durran, Jimenez, Ward
Likely (3): Feltman, German, Winckowski
Possible (4): Crawford, Ort, Politi, Scherff
Longshots (4): Cottam; Adames, Espinal, Gonsalves
It's about as tight as I expected. If they protect 9 guys (including 2 each of Likely and Possible), which seems like a max, and you want to leave open a spot, you can keep 4 of the 8 Hopefuls. Chavis is looking like a change-of-scenery guy, and the relievers might bust, or might step up and replace one of the * relievers other than Barnes. I can see them shedding as few as two guys, as they did last winter, and I'd be surprised if it's more than four.
Of course, you hope that everyone plays well, and you can deal multiple guys for non-eligible prospects of interest.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2021 7:55:24 GMT -5
Nitpick, but Wilson is playing his way off of the fungible list. He's been good so far.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 29, 2021 8:12:25 GMT -5
So I guess all this info leads to the Sox getting PTNL from the Mets and Royals that don't effect the 40 man decisions.
Also it will be very interesting to see how Bloom handles this situation. He has shown a good ability to make the under the radar moves to build the system and this looks like it will be a challenge to come out on top with the required moves/trades.
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Post by soxin8 on May 29, 2021 11:16:36 GMT -5
Nitpick, but Wilson is playing his way off of the fungible list. He's been good so far. My nitpick would be after watching the six game series in Hartford, I think Crawford and Politi are currently above German and Feltman. But all subject to change with four more months of minor league ball to play.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 29, 2021 11:38:38 GMT -5
Replacing marginal 40-man players with more solid ones is the way to improve the team. So it probably is a good thing if some of Wilson, Arroyo, RHernandez, Brewer, Brennan, Valdez are gone.
With the trade deadline 2 months away, it would be helpful if the injured players could get back playing ... so there's some minimal '21 evaluation.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 3, 2021 13:30:49 GMT -5
Something to think about, for now.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 3, 2021 13:42:09 GMT -5
subtraction candidates
Marwin G Danny Santana Brewer Ottavino Valdez Richards, Andriese, Plawicki & Kiké Hernandez (team options)
Chavis & Brazier possible non-tenders
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 3, 2021 13:55:54 GMT -5
subtraction candidates Marwin G Danny Santana Brewer Ottavino Valdez Richards, Andriese, Plawicki & Kiké Hernandez (team options) Chavis & Brazier possible non-tenders Barnes, ERod, Ottavino, Gonzalez, Santana, and in theory Workman (in place of Brewer) are free agents. The first three, I'd say that if they're not re-signed, they need to be replaced. Replace Gonzalez with Araúz. Santana walks. Workman either walks or replaces Barnes or Ottavino walking. Plawecki is fine, he's a backup. Depends on Wong's development whether that would net you a roster spot. The bullpen is where we're likely to see a lot of movement, but you need 8 MLB relievers. Maybe Ort and Bazardo replace guys. Depends on how the year goes.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Jun 3, 2021 14:18:34 GMT -5
Could a team theoretically take Thad Ward in rule 5 this year and stash him on the IL the entire season while he recovers from TJ? Would count as ML service time so can’t see how that wouldn’t work.
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