SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jun 3, 2021 14:48:22 GMT -5
Ward would have to be on the active roster for 90 days at some point for the Rule 5 team to keep him. A team could draft him, put him on the IL for 2022, and then make a decision during 2023 spring training. Ward would earn a year of major league service time for 2022 either way. The team would have to pay Ward a major league salary for 2022, but they'd get access to a higher quality prospect than is normally available in the Rule 5.
|
|
|
|
Post by evanstonredsox on Jun 3, 2021 14:52:40 GMT -5
Ward would have to be on the active roster for 90 days at some point for the Rule 5 team to keep him. A team could draft him, put him on the IL for 2022, and then make a decision during 2023 spring training. Ward would earn a year of major league service time for 2022 either way. The team would have to pay Ward a major league salary for 2022, but they'd get access to a higher quality prospect than is normally available in the Rule 5. If I were the Pirates or Rockies I would certainly find that to be an appealing option. |
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 3, 2021 17:41:53 GMT -5
Looking at the above, and keeping in mind the number of prospects taking up spots on the 40-man already (Potts, Rosario, Groome), the Red Sox are really going to need guys like Wong, R. Hernandez, and Wilson to play their way into being actual MLB depth by the end of the year or they're going to need to deal from this depth. With a 26-man roster, you can't have 8-10 guys on the 40-man who can't contribute at the MLB level. I think we can expect Bloom to be in wheelin' dealin' mode no matter what position the Sox are in at the deadline to try and use this depth, whether to buttress the MLB club or create more minor league depth. Yes, Wilson, Wong, R. Hernandez will really need to show something as the prospects start to stack up in the system, and even pitchers like Phillips Valdez who implodes in high leverage situations could be traded to room for highly rated prospects like: Jeter Downs #2 Jarren Duran #3 Gilberto Jimenez #4 Thaddeus Ward #7 Bryan Bello #9 ...or prospects who really outperform this year Josh Winckowski #24 Kaleb Ort Durbin Feltman #28 Kutter Crawford How many spot will they have available come November to add some highly regarded prospects. IMO it is always exciting to anticipate who gets added.....the next Lester, Garciaparra, Fred Lynn, Ellis Burks, or even Mookie Betts 😀. |
|
|
|
Post by jbsox on Jun 3, 2021 22:27:13 GMT -5
Yeah, the key thing is the number of moving pieces - options that may or may not be picked up, guys on 2 year deals like Perez who may or may not still be here. I think the only guy almost certainly not returning is Gonzalez. Even in the case of Barnes and Ottavino, even if they specifically leave, they need to be replaced by someone. Rodriguez too. It might be fun to divide the current 42-man into groups, and then do the math including your must-adds and possibilities.
Keepers (26): CV, X, Barnes*, E-Rod*, Sale, Devers, JDM*, Eovaldi, D. Hernandez, Dalbec, Plawecki, Verdugo, Valdez, Pivetta, Houck, Bazardo, Whitlock, Renfroe, Andriese*, Ottavino*, Kiké, Richards, Cordero, Sawamura; Mata, Seabold
Hopefuls (8): Taylor, Brasier, Chavis; Groome, Wong, Rosario, Potts, R. Hernandez
Fungible: (4) Brewer, Wilson, Arauz, Brennan
Moved On: (4) Perez (trade), Arroyo (trade), Gonzalez, Santana
Must adds (5): Bello, Downs, Durran, Jimenez, Ward
Likely (3): Feltman, German, Winckowski
Possible (4): Crawford, Ort, Politi, Scherff
Longshots (4): Cottam; Adames, Espinal, Gonsalves
It's about as tight as I expected. If they protect 9 guys (including 2 each of Likely and Possible), which seems like a max, and you want to leave open a spot, you can keep 4 of the 8 Hopefuls. Chavis is looking like a change-of-scenery guy, and the relievers might bust, or might step up and replace one of the * relievers other than Barnes. I can see them shedding as few as two guys, as they did last winter, and I'd be surprised if it's more than four.
Of course, you hope that everyone plays well, and you can deal multiple guys for non-eligible prospects of interest.
Nice layout. Iâm going to take stab at some alterations, and more ideas based on your last point trading multiple guys for non-eligible prospects of interest. You have Perez being traded which Sale would essentially replace in the starting rotation. If Perez actually stays on his current pace, we might be able to get a very interesting lower level prospect in the offseason. Iâm hoping Houck and/or Whitlock can take the next step in the rotation next year as they continue to develop their arsenal, and possibly make Eovaldi and/or Richards available in a trade in the offseason. That could open 1 or 2 more spots with minor league 40 man immediate starting pitching depth being Seabold and Winckowski (or maybe a surprise like Groome). Also with Erodâs recent stretch itâs not a given he will be back, but Iâm hopeful he can turn it around. If Wong can show at the very least he can be backup catcher at the major league level, maybe you can deal Plawecki. R Hernandez would then probably be the lone minor league catcher on the 40 man. If Duran is going is going to get a lot of playing time next year I would think something has to give in the Kikéâ, Renfroe, and Cordero group. Doesnât look promising for Cordero at the moment, but still much of the season left. I could also see someone like Valdez as a trade candidate, to make room for one of the younger relief guys. |
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 3, 2021 23:52:39 GMT -5
Looking at the above, and keeping in mind the number of prospects taking up spots on the 40-man already (Potts, Rosario, Groome), the Red Sox are really going to need guys like Wong, R. Hernandez, and Wilson to play their way into being actual MLB depth by the end of the year or they're going to need to deal from this depth. With a 26-man roster, you can't have 8-10 guys on the 40-man who can't contribute at the MLB level. I think we can expect Bloom to be in wheelin' dealin' mode no matter what position the Sox are in at the deadline to try and use this depth, whether to buttress the MLB club or create more minor league depth. Yes, IMO Wong, R. Hernandez, Gonzalez, Santana, Brennan, Rosario, Brewer (just did) will all be off the 40-man roster before or shortly after the end of the season. IMO addition trades or DFAs if not traded could come from Chavis, Arauz, and Potts. There are nine places opened. |
|
|
|
Post by hanleybeingmanny on Jun 10, 2021 8:38:14 GMT -5
With 4 possible position player injuries needed to bring him to the majors and a 40-man roster crunch coming, I’d be surprised if Wilson isn’t traded at some point. An Aybar/Koss trade seems to be the most likely scenario. Given his proximity to the majors and his great (admittedly inflated) AAA numbers, I feel like Wilson could net a decent enough lower level prospect. I think you're onto something here. I'd look for Chaim to make some moves with some fringey prospects to both capitalize on their value and free up the growing log jam on the 40. Next year's free agent class will be stocked with talent in the middle infield and @chrishatfield had tweeted there are about 13 of the top 60 prospects up for R5 next year. Of the current roster, 6 guys are headed for free agency, 4 have club options, and JD has his last available opt-out. I'd venture to guess that we resign 2-3 of those potential free agents and maybe pickup 2 club options? That leaves a projected 6-7 spots to open up. Maybe I'm over emphasizing the need for 40-man spots to protect prospects but after seeing Whitlock's success I'd prefer to be cautious. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2021 9:11:30 GMT -5
Of the current roster, 6 guys are headed for free agency, 4 have club options, and JD has his last available opt-out. I'd venture to guess that we resign 2-3 of those potential free agents and maybe pickup 2 club options? That leaves a projected 6-7 spots to open up. Maybe I'm over emphasizing the need for 40-man spots to protect prospects but after seeing Whitlock's success I'd prefer to be cautious. Of the 6 free agents (Barnes, Ottavino, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Santana, Workman), I think you assume 3 spots are "taken" in that they're either going to resign the player or sign an MLB equivalent, mostly thinking of the first three. Gonzalez you can replace with Araúz. Santana and Workman are fungible and yeah you probably replace them with new R5 guys, and frankly they probably get replaced this season with Duran and maybe an Ort at some point. JD is opting out, no question, unless something drastic changes. But again, I don't know that I see his bat getting replaced internally unless they're REALLY sure that Casas is close. That's a big hole in a top-heavy lineup not to fill. Club options on Vazquez, Richards, Kiké Hernandez, and Andriese. Hard to see them not picking up the first three, for now. Andriese for 3.25 against the CBT... I can't see why not unless he's brutal the rest of the way. Even if the plan is to then flip these guys, the "is this player worth this money" question is a different one than "will this player be on the 2022 Red Sox." I think it's hard to say Richards wouldn't get $8.5M (CBT hit). Hernandez at $8M is probably worth keeping an eye on. If he finishes the year as like a 2 WAR player he probably is worth that. But yeah, given the above, there aren't enough spots that are just going to open up. Bloom is definitely going to need to be in wheeler-dealer mode. Agree there are deals to be made at some point. |
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Jun 10, 2021 10:53:14 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2021 10:59:28 GMT -5
He does. Cot's being off on that has been one of their rare misses, but he's been referred to pretty much everywhere else as having one after this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by carmenfanzone on Jun 10, 2021 11:25:57 GMT -5
At what point do you give up on Groome and expose him to the Rule 5 draft? If he doesn't show some improvement during the rest of the year, I have to believe there are 40 guys who the Sox might want to protect more than they want to protect him . Would we even be talking about protecting him if he were not a first round pick?
|
|
|
|
Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 10, 2021 11:39:50 GMT -5
At what point do you give up on Groome and expose him to the Rule 5 draft? If he doesn't show some improvement during the rest of the year, I have to believe there are 40 guys who the Sox might want to protect more than they want to protect him . Would we even be talking about protecting him if he were not a first round pick? Was talking to a friend about this recently. Ideally, he gets some good innings under his belt, finishes the year strong in Portland, if that's the case, I think having him on the 40 man through the offseason/ST/next season is palatable, where his age/talent are back on track. He's already on the 40 man, so he doesn't need protecting, the decision would be to DFA him, in which case I'd almost guarantee he'd be claimed if they wanted to open a spot for another player. Could they move him in a trade at the deadline? I'd think so. I don't think it's as much of him being a first round pick, more than his talent/projection. Last yr stunk for all minor leaguers, but really sapped his development, he just hasn't had the innings yet. As a positive I think we are starting to see the stuff come back, the command is coming along the last few starts, so here's to hoping he finishes strong. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2021 13:20:09 GMT -5
FWIW, deciding to waive a guy on the 40-man is very different than deciding whether to add a player to protect him from Rule 5.
Waiving a player means exposing him to waivers, and a claiming team just needs to put him on their 40-man and can option him.
Exposing a player means a drafting team needs to keep him on the 26-man active roster all season.
Might there be a point where waiving Groome makes sense? Yup. Is it now? I'd say no chance. I'd still keep him in a vacuum over all of the players who are eligible save for Downs, Duran, Jimenez, and Bello (now that Ward's had TJ and might be safe to leave off).
As for the question of would he be on the 40-man if he weren't a first-rounder, I think the complication is that the reason he was a first-rounder is his talent level. It's not a status thing so much as a ceiling/potential thing.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxaddict on Jun 10, 2021 16:26:05 GMT -5
Don't you think some of these guys (Brasier, Wilson, Arauz, Groome, Wong, Rosario, Potts, or Cordero) will be dealt at the deadline? This is a good team and just needs some upgrades.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2021 16:58:22 GMT -5
Don't you think some of these guys (Brasier, Wilson, Arauz, Groome, Wong, Rosario, Potts, or Cordero) will be dealt at the deadline? This is a good team and just needs some upgrades. I just said that he's going to need to make trades 7 posts up. |
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 13, 2021 17:17:04 GMT -5
It is way too early to think about the next Rule 5 draft, but i am going to start my list anyway:
(Some of these players may already be on the 40-man by December and some of the existing 40-man players may be traded — like Wilson, Rosario, Chavis... to make extra room...)
I am guessing about 6 open spots:
1. Bryan Bello
2. Jeter Downs
3. Jarren Duran
4. Gilberto Jimenez
5. Kutter Crawford
6. Thaddeus Ward (? After TJ)
Maybe
Kaleb Orr
Durbin Feltman
Josh Winckowski
Frank German
————————————————-
MInor League FA (I hope they resign)
Espinal
Meneses
Mieses
Josh Adams
Jack Lopez
Matt Kent
|
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2021 17:22:56 GMT -5
moved from the 2020 thread.
|
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Jul 13, 2021 17:38:47 GMT -5
It is way too early to think about the next Rule 5 draft, but i am going to start my list anyway: (Some of these players may already be on the 40-man by December and some of the existing 40-man players may be traded — like Wilson, Rosario, Chavis... to make extra room...) I am guessing about 6 open spots: 1. Bryan Bello 2. Jeter Downs 3. Jarren Duran 4. Gilberto Jimenez 5. Kutter Crawford 6. Thaddeus Ward (? After TJ) Maybe Kaleb Orr Durbin Feltman Josh Winckowski Frank German ————————————————- MInor League FA (I hope they resign) Espinal Meneses Mieses Josh Adams Jack Lopez Matt Kent It looks like Chavis has one option year left, which makes me wonder if he would be more useful to us as up-and-down depth than whatever we would get for him (probably not much) |
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 13, 2021 20:03:59 GMT -5
Don't you think some of these guys (Brasier, Wilson, Arauz, Groome, Wong, Rosario, Potts, or Cordero) will be dealt at the deadline? This is a good team and just needs some upgrades. I just said that he's going to need to make trades 7 posts up. I think soxaddict was referring to using these players to supplement the 2021 title run rather than trading them for prospects that do not require addition to the 40-man (low level prospects). |
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Jul 13, 2021 20:30:06 GMT -5
I just said that he's going to need to make trades 7 posts up. I think soxaddict was referring to using these players to supplement the 2021 title run rather than trading them for prospects that do not require addition to the 40-man (low level prospects). I have spent, perhaps, wasted, hours and hours imagining Red Sox trades that bring us great additions at the expense of two marginal players. Real trades rarely work that way. |
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,181
|
Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 11:32:42 GMT -5
Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty?
Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021)
He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him.
He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power.
Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A).
I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him.
|
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jul 15, 2021 11:41:57 GMT -5
Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty? Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021) He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him. He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power. Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A). I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him. You never know but his tools are tantalizing and if left unprotected one of the teams in a complete rebuild might just take him deal with his struggles and see what he can do. |
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,181
|
Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 11:46:04 GMT -5
Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty? Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021) He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him. He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power. Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A). I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him. You never know but his tools are tantalizing and if left unprotected one of the teams in a complete rebuild might just take him deal with his struggles and see what he can do. I'm not sure about that part, I don't think he can put a competitive at bat in High A right now. |
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 15, 2021 11:46:23 GMT -5
Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty? Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021) He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him. He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power. Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A). I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him. Short answer: He's a certainty to be added because he's far too talented to risk losing. It would not be smart for a team to draft him and undercut his development in doing so, but his upside is too high to risk it. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2021 12:40:00 GMT -5
I'm also fairly certain he's been dinged up. He started strong but then really tailed off for a bit in June, tied in with him missing some games. he's also come out of at least one more recent game.
But James has it. Given his speed, an MLB team can find a way to get use out of him on a 26-man roster for at least 90 days and then stash him on the IL the rest of the year. It would be absolutely stunning if he wasn't added to the 40-man. Look at it this way - Jay Groome was pretty much in the same situation and they added him.
It's different when it's like, Ceddanne Rafaela who doesn't have quite the same upside, while still being very intriguing.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,181
|
Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 12:47:52 GMT -5
I'm also fairly certain he's been dinged up. He started strong but then really tailed off for a bit in June, tied in with him missing some games. he's also come out of at least one more recent game. But James has it. Given his speed, an MLB team can find a way to get use out of him on a 26-man roster for at least 90 days and then stash him on the IL the rest of the year. It would be absolutely stunning if he wasn't added to the 40-man. Look at it this way - Jay Groome was pretty much in the same situation and they added him.It's different when it's like, Ceddanne Rafaela who doesn't have quite the same upside, while still being very intriguing. Pitchers are different, you can hide them in the bullpen as a mop up relievers. I just don't see the upside of picking him in a rule 5 Draft if I'm an opposing manager. |
|
|
