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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 30, 2021 11:05:17 GMT -5
(I legit tried to find the existing thread for this and couldn't, so new thread I guess!)
We're about due for an update, eh? This week we'll be making some tweaks based on MLB camp - it will not be our official 2021 Season-Opening Ranking because we want to wait for reports from minor league camp, but there's no reason to wait to make some moves based on what we've seen over the past month.
Speculate away on what you think is coming, folks!
Hint: Along the lines of roughly 4 guys or so moving. Includes both up and down.
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Post by tjb21 on Mar 30, 2021 11:13:10 GMT -5
Love this thread.
Garrett Whitlock seems to have the most helium. I'd have him ~16th now. Araúz should have a mini-jump too.
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Post by natesp4 on Mar 30, 2021 11:28:41 GMT -5
Mata likely moving down as well so we should see a new #3. I can't imagine much of a switch amongst the guys directly below Mata though. Maybe Houck gets a little boost based on the velocity bump. My guess is those guys just slide up in the order they're in and Mata slides in behind Houck.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 30, 2021 11:52:03 GMT -5
Only update I am interested in is July 15, after we draft Mayer and a college pitcher in the second, and the Benintendi PTBNLers are released from the Mets and Royals.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 30, 2021 12:19:16 GMT -5
Whitllock and Arauz up and Mata down seem easy. I'm going with Politi up as the 4th change.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 30, 2021 13:53:40 GMT -5
Agree with everyone on Arauz and Whitlock.
My personal preference for up is Duran who could arguably be our CF even now. I like the idea that he is No. 1. He is a potential all-star.
I could make an UP argument on each of the following: Politi, Dalbec, Bazardo, Winckowski, Gettys.
DOWN: Mata on the basis of his absence for a year or more and Casas in that I would move move Duran to the top.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 30, 2021 14:11:23 GMT -5
Perhaps move up Seabold a spot or two. He was already interesting given that he throws strikes but he was pitching at a higher velocity than expected. Maybe there's even more there.
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Post by costpet on Mar 30, 2021 15:08:09 GMT -5
My top 4
Dalbec - should be in Young Graduates Duran Houck Casas
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 30, 2021 15:24:48 GMT -5
Dalbec has not graduated yet. It's not a subjective thing* - it's based on at-bats.
* We do fudge it sometimes with guys like Arauz or relievers who graduate based on service time, but it's to keep them rankings-eligible not the other way around.
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 30, 2021 15:35:01 GMT -5
Whitlock up to 14 Bazardo up to 15 Mata down to 9 Arauz up to 19 Seabold up to 8
Maybe Duran’s report gets a boost but I don’t think he moves up in rankings until he demonstrates some defensive improvement in CF.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 30, 2021 17:06:10 GMT -5
Whitlock up to 14 Bazardo up to 15 Mata down to 9 Arauz up to 19 Seabold up to 8 Maybe Duran’s report gets a boost but I don’t think he moves up in rankings until he demonstrates some defensive improvement in CF. At the very least, Duran moves up to three if Mata moves down. Downs is No.2 presently. Duran is a lot more impressive as a hitter than Downs, but that is no knock on Downs so much as a reason to consider Duran a potential all-star. So, that suggests that Duran, who is hitting .340 this Spring and leads the team in hitting, a team that leads the Grapefruit League in hitting, is already showing near proven potential—arguably reliable potential. Downs has less proven potential at this point. That brings us to Casas. No one is going to argue that he could mature into a superstar hitter with decent defensive abilities. But he has zero experience in a full season as yet. No matter how legitimate his prospects are or how high his ceiling may be, his trajectory is far more uncertain at this point than is Duran’s. Thus, my belief that Duran should be elevated to No. 1.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 30, 2021 17:25:19 GMT -5
Whitlock up to 14 Bazardo up to 15 Mata down to 9 Arauz up to 19 Seabold up to 8 Maybe Duran’s report gets a boost but I don’t think he moves up in rankings until he demonstrates some defensive improvement in CF. At the very least, Duran moves up to three if Mata moves down. Downs is No.2 presently. Duran is a lot more impressive as a hitter than Downs, but that is no knock on Downs so much as a reason to consider Duran a potential all-star. So, that suggests that Duran, who is hitting .340 this Spring and leads the team in hitting, a team that leads the Grapefruit League in hitting, is already showing near proven potential—arguably reliable potential. Downs has less proven potential at this point. Seems to me that this is leaning awfully heavily on his performance in spring training and at the alternate site last year - i.e., not real games. To go by the scouting reports I don't think you could say Duran is "a lot more impressive." Not that I'm not excited by the promising signs...
Funny how Downs really seems like the forgotten man around these parts, considering the consensus that he's one of the top two prospects in the system. The Jarren Duran thread is on page 15, and the Downs thread has barely 15 comments. I guess it's a combination of him being an all-around solid prospect without any really electric skills like Duran's speed, plus of course his arriving in a trade rather than being raised from a pup within the Sox org.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 30, 2021 17:43:00 GMT -5
Downs has minor league full season averages of around.270. Duran had better numbers. Duran also was outstanding in Puerto Rico. I am not knocking Downs. He just does not display the hitting upside that I see in Duran.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 30, 2021 18:27:26 GMT -5
That brings us to Casas. No one is going to argue that he could mature into a superstar hitter with decent defensive abilities. But he has zero experience in a full season as yet. No matter how legitimate his prospects are or how high his ceiling may be, his trajectory is far more uncertain at this point than is Duran’s. Thus, my belief that Duran should be elevated to No. 1. Just a point of information that the bolded is not true. He was drafted in 2018 and played a full season in 2019.
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Post by soxinsf on Mar 30, 2021 18:59:59 GMT -5
True. My bad. Played 2019 at Greenville. Hit .254/.349/.472/.820. Not too bad for a teen-average. Duran hit a lot higher at the same level but was older and had college experience to draw on, and less power. It will be a big and good problem to have if Dalbec, Devers and Casas all come special at the same time with Blaze chasing up behind them.
Might remind us of Williams, Stephens, Doerr/Dropo with Duran and Verdugo doing their best impressions of Pesky and the Little Perfesser.
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 30, 2021 19:23:31 GMT -5
Whitlock up to 14 Bazardo up to 15 Mata down to 9 Arauz up to 19 Seabold up to 8 Maybe Duran’s report gets a boost but I don’t think he moves up in rankings until he demonstrates some defensive improvement in CF. At the very least, Duran moves up to three if Mata moves down. Downs is No.2 presently. Duran is a lot more impressive as a hitter than Downs, but that is no knock on Downs so much as a reason to consider Duran a potential all-star. So, that suggests that Duran, who is hitting .340 this Spring and leads the team in hitting, a team that leads the Grapefruit League in hitting, is already showing near proven potential—arguably reliable potential. Downs has less proven potential at this point. That brings us to Casas. No one is going to argue that he could mature into a superstar hitter with decent defensive abilities. But he has zero experience in a full season as yet. No matter how legitimate his prospects are or how high his ceiling may be, his trajectory is far more uncertain at this point than is Duran’s. Thus, my belief that Duran should be elevated to No. 1. I’m pretty sure the site already has Duran at 3 with Mata at 4
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Post by jimoh on Mar 30, 2021 19:32:01 GMT -5
Downs has minor league full season averages of around.270. Duran had better numbers. Duran also was outstanding in Puerto Rico. I am not knocking Downs. He just does not display the hitting upside that I see in Duran. In 70 PAs in the Puerto Rican Winter League Duran hit .236 .386 .273 .658 Then in 30 PAs playing for Puerto Rico in the Caribbean World Series he hit .400 .500 .640 1.140 As a skinnier guy in 2019 he also hit .250 .309 .325 .634 in 352 PAs in AA after hitting very very well in A-ball. Duran has looked great this Spring, showing power and speed and the ability to hit to all fields. But it's hard to judge a hit tool in Spring training. His home run today was off a guy who had not pitched in 8 months and was just hoping his repaired Achilles did not pop. There is great upside, but if he comes up in June Duran could hit 300/350/450 or 250/309/325 Downs has hit a very healthy .267 .359 .458 in the minor leagues. The "around 270" BA is the least important of those figures, though there is a little California slugging in there. His first 56 PA in AA at age 20 he hit .333 .429 .688 (Duran was 22 when he reached AA). Duran is more exciting and closer to the majors, but Duran has plenty of offensive upside. If our 2b this year could hit .267 .359 .458 we would be golden.
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Post by soxinjersey on Mar 31, 2021 14:53:16 GMT -5
For the last year, the universal feeling seems to have been that Casas and Downs represent the top tier of Sox prospects. A level below them lie a group of players with the ceiling, perhaps, of a MLB regular, second-division regular, or #5 starter. The question for me here is not where Duran rates in relationship to Downs but whether he has elevated himself to join Downs and Casas in this higher tier: can he be an above-average or impact MLB player? First, though, a word about Downs: when healthy, he has been impressive this spring at the plate. Although he has been mostly below the radar, he seems to warrant the position he occupies in the ratings. He might help this year. At the same time, Duran clearly has elevated his status over the last year, most notably with the addition of power to his game. To the winter #'s Jimoh gives above, we need to add 25 AB in the Puerto Rican playoffs with 2 HR and a 1.046 OPS. Thus in his last 97 AB (50 in PR + 47 in ST), Duran has hit 6 HR. SSS and all that, sure, but Duran clearly has demonstrated an unexpected power potential and perhaps the ability to actualize it at the ML level. In my mind, with this higher ceiling, he has joined Casas and Downs in that top tier. Just as important, Bobby Dalbec and Tanner Houck have also demonstrated abilities beyond previous expectations. There are lots of question marks, sure, but Dalbec has displayed game-changing power, especially to the opposite field, and Houck has demonstrated the ability to make good ML hitters uncomfortable. Their strengths may actually diminish our worries about their weaknesses.
The great organizations, such as the Dodgers, sustain success through good scouting, first-rate decision-making, and player development. Duran, Dalbec, and Houck offer hope (and perhaps a demonstration) of the Sox's growing ability to develop players.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 31, 2021 15:17:14 GMT -5
We're live.
Mata down to 6 from 3 Whitlock up to 16 from 32 (slight tweak of Murphy slipping behind Jordan) Bazardo up to 22 from 27 Araúz up to 23 from 26 Wu-Yelland swapped in at 60 for Danny Diaz
Also, grade tweaks: Mata projection down to 4.5 from 5 Seabold ceiling up to 6 from 5 Yorke projection up to 4.5 from 4 Whitlock enters the top 20 and gets a 4, 3-6
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Post by evanstonredsox on Apr 29, 2021 10:52:18 GMT -5
Is there going to be a rankings update for May / the start of the MiLB season?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 29, 2021 11:37:13 GMT -5
Yes
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 4, 2021 6:18:49 GMT -5
Buuuuuuuuuuuump
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Post by manfred on May 4, 2021 9:12:31 GMT -5
How long is it until Whitlock graduates? I assume (but you know what they say) that he is a post-prospect by year’s end?
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Post by James Dunne on May 4, 2021 9:13:53 GMT -5
How long is it until Whitlock graduates? I assume (but you know what they say) that he is a post-prospect by year’s end? He graduates at 50 innings, so maybe mid-summer barring injury? Even if they're being cautious it's hard to see a situation where he stays healthy and keeps his rookie status. I'll go ahead and predict that he graduates between the July and August updates.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 4, 2021 9:32:59 GMT -5
June 1 most likely for him, actually.
We kept Araúz eligible even after hitting service time limits because we figured he was basically just being stashed on the MLB roster and wasn't really a "major leaguer". Very hard to see Whitlock going back down to the minors after this though so he presents a different case and we'll probably graduate him.
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