SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2021 18:47:08 GMT -5
Well then mash that refresh button
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 8, 2021 19:21:37 GMT -5
Jimenez still ranked higher than Yorke 😐
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Aug 8, 2021 19:39:31 GMT -5
Well then mash that refresh button You guys are the best
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Aug 8, 2021 19:46:12 GMT -5
Why are some injured players dropped a dozen places while others are unchanged? I can see why Potts has dropped for lack of performance. Downs has had a similar and almost parallel lack of performance albeit albeit in a higher league.
That said, the overall listing is instructive for me as a guide to the future. It is features like this that have encouraged me to support Sox Prospects. Keep ‘em coming.
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Aug 8, 2021 19:49:02 GMT -5
Why are some injured players dropped a dozen places while others are unchanged? I can see why Potts has dropped for lack of performance. Downs has had a similar and almost parallel lack of performance albeit albeit in a higher league. That said, the overall listing is instructive for me as a guide to the future. It is features like this that have encouraged me to support Sox Prospects. Keep ‘em coming. Guys with longer term injuries (I think Mata was the example discussed on the pod) are at risk of burning option years faster than they can develop into Major League players. So even though they may have the talent it will hurt their status rankings wise.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2021 19:52:14 GMT -5
Why are some injured players dropped a dozen places while others are unchanged? I can see why Potts has dropped for lack of performance. Downs has had a similar and almost parallel lack of performance albeit albeit in a higher league. That said, the overall listing is instructive for me as a guide to the future. It is features like this that have encouraged me to support Sox Prospects. Keep ‘em coming. Which injured players are you referring to? Downs basically skipped Double-A. It's been bad, but I am willing to give him a bit more of a mulligan as a top guy than a guy in the much closer packs further back. And I'd note that things are much closer once you get outside of the top 10, maybe even top 5. Dropping from 26 to 38, which Potts did is in part due to his struggles, for sure, but consider: - 3 debuts ahead of him (Mayer, McDonough, Hickey) - 7 big jumps by guys now ahead of him (Wilkelman, Bleis, Crawford, Paulino, Cannon, Lira, Vaughan) So 10 of the 12-spot drop has nothing to do with him really. Spot-to-spot movement shouldn't be compared near the top of the list versus further back.
|
|
|
Post by stevedillard on Aug 8, 2021 20:11:39 GMT -5
Without giving away trade secrets, can you explain no Ugeuto (compared to Paulino, for example), and a Lira vs. Sanchez or L.James (where production is better). I assume some first person reports?
And why did Cruz drop
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Aug 8, 2021 20:20:20 GMT -5
I was comparing Mata with Schugart and Bazardo.
|
|
|
Post by trynegobble on Aug 8, 2021 20:25:08 GMT -5
Appreciate all of the hard work that went into the update guys! I was excited to see where Wu-Yelland would end up in the update as I live in Roanoke VA and I've seen a majority of his starts this year. Been a mixed bag, but I really like his stuff. Blalock and Drohan also seem to be turning a corner down here in Salem. Excited to see Big Joe finally get on the list as well. One question, that admittedly will be difficult to answer, would be which guys on the complex do you envision getting a taste of A ball here in Salem by years end? (I'm hoping Wilkelman and potentially either Bonaci or Paulino?). Also, any guess as to why Blaze and McDonough haven't debuted in Salem yet?
|
|
|
Post by bcsox on Aug 8, 2021 21:54:33 GMT -5
Awesome job on the rankings. Can’t imagine how much time that took and seperating guys from say 30 on. My one complaint up top is I just don’t see how Downs is ahead of Houck. I know it’s tough to project guys who are a few levels away from MLB but on the field production at some point has to trump an iffy projection. Houck is currently maybe the 2nd or 3rd best starter on a MLB team fighting for a playoff spot. Even if he is a future reliever which of course would diminish his value, a 2 inning late game power reliever with strikeout numbers who is currently producing very very well, has to get the nod over a 2b who many consider to be a future utility player who had a year off last year and is hitting in the .180’s this year, so basically 2 years without any positive performance. Does anyone feel good about Downs ever producing the kind of very positive results in the MLB that Houck is producing right now?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2021 22:05:39 GMT -5
Without giving away trade secrets, can you explain no Ugeuto (compared to Paulino, for example), and a Lira vs. Sanchez or L.James (where production is better). I assume some first person reports? And why did Cruz drop Reports on all. I really don't put much stock into complex league stats. Better they be good than not obviously, but sometimes you need to learn more about why a guy is doing what he's doing. I was comparing Mata with Schugart and Bazardo. Shugart hasn't been hurt or ranked, so not sure if you're thinking of someone else? Mata and Bazardo have different injuries. Bazardo is throwing off a mound already. Bazardo dropped from 23 to 31 this month but he had 3 debuts ahead of him and 5 double-digit jumpers ahead of him that basically account for much of that. Generally, injuries affect different guys differently. How long will they be out? Age? Development stage? Etc. And keep in mind that the further down the rankings you get, the more things happening around the player can affect the guy's ranking more than what he's doing, especially if he's not doing anything. Like, 8 guys rose by double-digits (including from unranked to top 40 in 3 different cases) and 5 guys debuted. Getting passed by those jumpers or put behind debuting guys doesn't mean a guy's standing dropped really.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Aug 8, 2021 22:22:15 GMT -5
Re drops in rankings: Apologies. Meant Ward.
Maybe Mata had dropped earlier. Ward was injured between ranking dates. Is that it?
|
|
ehaz
Rookie
Posts: 26
|
Post by ehaz on Aug 8, 2021 23:03:28 GMT -5
Still seems a little conservative to me. I’d drop Downs behind Houck for sure.
Yeah it’s only 43 career MLB innings, but he’s got a 2.31 FIP 12.6 K/9 in the big leagues. He’s dominated. There’s just no way I could justify Downs being ahead of him. The stuff is too good and it plays. There were worries that Downs was more of a future utility guy even before this season and with his issues catching up to high velocity I expect him to drop off pretty much every top 100 list.
I’ve also never understood the fascination with Jimenez. Definite top 10 prospect but his ranking just seems high in relation to what guys like York are doing. When I watch him swing sometimes I wonder if he will ever be able to hit for power at the next level. I’d honestly rather have to part with Jimenez than Bello/Groome/Seabold too.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2021 23:08:29 GMT -5
Freddy Valdez all the way down to 51? What the heck happened there?
I'm guessing the first-person impressions were... underwhelming?
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 0:26:27 GMT -5
No way Downs is a better prospect than Houck. No way and that's for about a year now.
I totally don't understand the anti-Houck bias. Saving face ?
Downs was severely overmatched at the ATS last year, nothing has changed and nothing is a high probability to. There's nobody in your top 10 he's a likelier prospect than. Houck is and has been dominating. He's arguably our #1 prospect.
I'm flabbergasted. It's like as if the crew thinks 80 grade sliders are common place.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Aug 9, 2021 2:50:58 GMT -5
Thanks for the update! Mata is in our top 5 in almost every single Red Sox ranking besides ours and he’s not even in our top 10. That’s my only issue. Great job though guys!
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 9, 2021 6:41:33 GMT -5
I suppose I'm surprised that I'm surprised about the blowback of keeping Downs high. Personally, I applaud that decision. Player development is not linear and many factors need to be weighed in. There's nothing wrong with moving him down in the offseason a bit more if he struggles through the end of the year and a steeper drop if he continues to drop next year.
But this is player development, every guys path is different and it takes several years to reach the majors. It's not like game action when you have to use your type 1 decision-making skill to decide if you should swing or not, or go to 2nd or not off a hit. These rankings are amorphous, but that doesn't mean anyone has to take the quick path to being right.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 7:02:23 GMT -5
Give me a list of all the players you can think of that couldn't hit a high fastball that later learned to hit a high fastball.
I don't believe that's a teachable skill.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,720
|
Post by mobaz on Aug 9, 2021 7:49:48 GMT -5
Thanks for the updates! I'm far less bitter than some, but agree I feel better about Houck than Downs at this point.
Wonder if Down's struggles at AAA is akin to all the top-prospect struggles this year going from AAA to MLB. In that light, a little less worrying. I thought he was younger though...
I'm loving the 2020 draft at this point; I feel better about each of those guys than I did on draft day, and I was already in wait-and-see mode instead of grabbing the pitchforks back then.
I feel good about pitching depth in the org, although I was once sure that Scherff/Brakeman/Shugart were going to be helping in the bigs by now. Hoping Ward/Song/Mata can come back and raise the ceiling on the staff as well.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 9, 2021 7:55:16 GMT -5
Still seems a little conservative to me. I’d drop Downs behind Houck for sure. Yeah it’s only 43 career MLB innings, but he’s got a 2.31 FIP 12.6 K/9 in the big leagues. He’s dominated. There’s just no way I could justify Downs being ahead of him. The stuff is too good and it plays. There were worries that Downs was more of a future utility guy even before this season and with his issues catching up to high velocity I expect him to drop off pretty much every top 100 list. I’ve also never understood the fascination with Jimenez. Definite top 10 prospect but his ranking just seems high in relation to what guys like York are doing. When I watch him swing sometimes I wonder if he will ever be able to hit for power at the next level. I’d honestly rather have to part with Jimenez than Bello/Groome/Seabold too. Same here, I guess being fast gives you a canyon sized leeway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ A speed that he didn't turn into a skill beside turning groundouts into singles vs inexperienced minor league fielders: He's still a mediocre base stealers and a fielder. Last week vs Lynchburg (Atlanta Low-A affiliates), Petey Halpin hit a line drive off Salem's reliever Fernandez that Jimenez, by misjudging the ball off the bat turned into a base clearing triple. They're already playing him in the COF when Rafaela is not playing the infield. Not only he didn't show any progression in an a particular aspect of his game, he also regressed in what was supposed to be his strength: Hitting right handed. vs south paws: - He didn't drew a single walk in 60 PA! - He struck out 35% of the time. - 59% of his batted balls were grounders As a right hander, he swing A LOT (65.7%) and makes too little contact (69.1%) and when he does, it's generally of the GB type. The fact that he hits behind Yorke in the batting order can be amusing on most nights just for the sheer difference in terms of the quality of the at bats. I forgot which game it was but I lol'ed when Yorke worked an 11 pitchs walk after being down 0-2 and Jimenez came after him and struck out on 3 pitchs. In my humble opinion, he's just not top 10 good. I sincerely hope he proves me wrong, it would be an unbelievable story of success for the latin America scouting squad but I just don't see it.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2021 8:11:33 GMT -5
No way Downs is a better prospect than Houck. No way and that's for about a year now. I totally don't understand the anti-Houck bias. Saving face ? Downs was severely overmatched at the ATS last year, nothing has changed and nothing is a high probability to. There's nobody in your top 10 he's a likelier prospect than. Houck is and has been dominating. He's arguably our #1 prospect. I'm flabbergasted. It's like as if the crew thinks 80 grade sliders are common place. I mean, you've been the high end on Houck for a long time now - recall our bet that you were certain Houck would be a consensus top-something (I don't even remember the number) prospect and then, as multiple folks told you would be the case, Houck wasn't ranked by anybody in the top 100. You're acting like we're on an island here, but we're not. BA's midseason update has Downs 4, Houck 5. Fangraphs hasn't had a full re-rank but they still have Houck 8th. I don't believe that MLB.com has released its rerank yet but based on our conversation with Jim, it seems quite clear they're also going to have Downs ahead of Houck. Given that our opinion matches the consensus, how is that "saving face"? The slider is good but I'd go 70 tops, not 80 (consider he didn't get a single swinging strike with it last start - it elicited 2 swings and both were hits). He's still yet to pitch in the 6th inning this year. He's done a pretty good job on the walk issue but as I've said, I have questions about long-term role. He's clearly going to get some run in the rotation down the stretch here and deservedly so! We're going to learn a lot about his future role in that time. Interestingly, in that last game in which the slider wasn't effective, his 4-seam was. Was it a matter of the Jays laying off the slider to try and tee up the 4-seam and being unsuccessful? We'll have to see. As for Downs, we've said it before - the threshold for him to be a useful major leaguer at second base is SO low. Houck will almost certainly graduate before our next update, so Houck vs. Downs won't be a question next month, but as far as Downs himself, we'll see what happens over the next two months. Thanks for the update! Mata is in our top 5 in almost every single Red Sox ranking besides ours and he’s not even in our top 10. That’s my only issue. Great job though guys! Where is that? Certainly not anywhere that's updated since he got hurt. BA has him 7th in their midseason update. We dropped him to where he is now back in May both because of the TJ and because the health issues have been a recurring thing. His career high in IP is 115 (including the AFL in 2019), and he's otherwise not topped 77. It was a back in 2018, shoulder in 2019, hamstring last year, UCL this year. I think there are real concerns about whether or not he's a starter at this point as well, and that's why we have him where he is.
|
|
|
Post by juanpena on Aug 9, 2021 8:21:40 GMT -5
Brian Cashman got burned by leaving Garrett Whitlock exposed, but he obviously got good intel on Frank German. There's no way he would have traded an actual prospect to the Sox in a salary dump.
And the Benintendi trade clearly wasn't about "unlocking Franchy's toolbox," or about Winckowski of the PTBNLs. It was about getting a declining player off the team and saving some money.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 13:45:14 GMT -5
It's sad but Mata is turning into the Kalish of pitching.
For Downs, I don't think the increased quality of pitching is what he's struggling with, it's the increased quality of scouting.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 14:10:58 GMT -5
No way Downs is a better prospect than Houck. No way and that's for about a year now. I totally don't understand the anti-Houck bias. Saving face ? Downs was severely overmatched at the ATS last year, nothing has changed and nothing is a high probability to. There's nobody in your top 10 he's a likelier prospect than. Houck is and has been dominating. He's arguably our #1 prospect. I'm flabbergasted. It's like as if the crew thinks 80 grade sliders are common place. I mean, you've been the high end on Houck for a long time now - recall our bet that you were certain Houck would be a consensus top-something (I don't even remember the number) prospect and then, as multiple folks told you would be the case, Houck wasn't ranked by anybody in the top 100. You're acting like we're on an island here, but we're not. BA's midseason update has Downs 4, Houck 5. Fangraphs hasn't had a full re-rank but they still have Houck 8th. I don't believe that MLB.com has released its rerank yet but based on our conversation with Jim, it seems quite clear they're also going to have Downs ahead of Houck. Given that our opinion matches the consensus, how is that "saving face"? The slider is good but I'd go 70 tops, not 80 (consider he didn't get a single swinging strike with it last start - it elicited 2 swings and both were hits). He's still yet to pitch in the 6th inning this year. He's done a pretty good job on the walk issue but as I've said, I have questions about long-term role. He's clearly going to get some run in the rotation down the stretch here and deservedly so! We're going to learn a lot about his future role in that time. Interestingly, in that last game in which the slider wasn't effective, his 4-seam was. Was it a matter of the Jays laying off the slider to try and tee up the 4-seam and being unsuccessful? We'll have to see. As for Downs, we've said it before - the threshold for him to be a useful major leaguer at second base is SO low. Houck will almost certainly graduate before our next update, so Houck vs. Downs won't be a question next month, but as far as Downs himself, we'll see what happens over the next two months. Thanks for the update! Mata is in our top 5 in almost every single Red Sox ranking besides ours and he’s not even in our top 10. That’s my only issue. Great job though guys! Where is that? Certainly not anywhere that's updated since he got hurt. BA has him 7th in their midseason update. We dropped him to where he is now back in May both because of the TJ and because the health issues have been a recurring thing. His career high in IP is 115 (including the AFL in 2019), and he's otherwise not topped 77. It was a back in 2018, shoulder in 2019, hamstring last year, UCL this year. I think there are real concerns about whether or not he's a starter at this point as well, and that's why we have him where he is. So then what you see is less important than how everyone else has him ranked ? I see. Doesn't that define saving face ? I'm also not so sure that the offensive bar for a second baseman is lower than for a shortstop. If anything, it's the other way around and that's where his problems lie. The group that is the collective second basemen is pretty clearly less than the group that is collectively shortstops though. I was actually impressed with his defense at the ATS, he was better than I expected. He made several plays at SS that Bogaerts has no shot at.
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Aug 9, 2021 14:30:58 GMT -5
Give me a list of all the players you can think of that couldn't hit a high fastball that later learned to hit a high fastball. I don't believe that's a teachable skill. I mean one of the most famous current examples of an MLB player getting better is Mike Trout learning to hit the high fastball. I get that "Mike Trout did it" is not helpful, but it might actually be the most well known MLB player development story for current position players. Troy Tulowitzki made dramatic improvements there. This season Miguel Sano has gotten significantly better at that aspect of hitting. Someone who's better at baseballsavant than me might be able to come to a more statistical answer.
|
|
|