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2021 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
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Post by jfb012 on Aug 9, 2021 15:47:46 GMT -5
Big Joe sighting at 59? You love to see it.
I'm assuming it'll be discussed on the next podcast (if not, I'll email in) but be interested to hear the logic on Mayer being 2 behind Casas, I'm guessing that's a great sign for Casas that he's carrying a serious bat, rather than any potential weakness in Mayer's game.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 9, 2021 15:59:43 GMT -5
I'd imagine it's mostly due to Casas' proximity to the bigs. Mayer is a few years away, Casas could be in AAA in short order.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2021 16:18:12 GMT -5
We'll get into it more on the podcast but as I said on Twitter last night, it changed several times, which should tell you where our minds are at on it. Definitely not an easy call.
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Post by jfb012 on Aug 9, 2021 16:25:46 GMT -5
I'd imagine it's mostly due to Casas' proximity to the bigs. Mayer is a few years away, Casas could be in AAA in short order. That's a good point. I was thinking about positional value, but proximity should play a factor. Good argument to have though, being able to discuss on merit rather than fault of a player.
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Post by jfb012 on Aug 9, 2021 16:29:31 GMT -5
We'll get into it more on the podcast but as I said on Twitter last night, it changed several times, which should tell you where our minds are at on it. Definitely not an easy call. Ah, sorry, not on Twitter so didn't see that. Look forward to listening.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2021 16:51:14 GMT -5
Another point was just the fact we've seen Casas. Having not seen Mayer, there's so much more variability - we've seen guys in person and they're nothing like their draft scouting reports sometimes. Not necessarily going to be as big a problem with a guy like Mayer, but you never know.
It's very possible we see him at Instructs and we're like holy crap throw a 6 on him and make him #1 yesterday.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Aug 9, 2021 17:16:05 GMT -5
Huge number of changes in the rankings this month. It's easy to see why they were delayed a bit. Thanks to the ranking crew for their hard work! - The big question has been re who would top the list. The verdict is in and Triston Casas stays at # 1 with Marcelo Mayer joining the list at # 2.
- Duran and Downs both dropped a spot due to Mayer's ranking and are now at 3 & 4.
- Gilberto Jiminez is 6th, down 2 since 6/1.
- Nick Yorke is up from 9 to 8.
- Connor Seabold fell from 6 to 9.
- Blaze Jordan and Josh Winckowski are at 13 and 14, both up 1.
- Brainer Bonaci dropped from 13 to 15.
- Thad Ward rose from 20 to 17.
- Matt Lugo down 1 to the 18th spot.
- Wilkelman Gonzales, near the bottom at 54 last month, rose 34 positions to slide into the top 20 at #20!
- Jonathan Arauz moved up from 25 to 22.
- Miguel Bleis is at #23, up 13.
- 3rd rounder Tyler McDonough debuts at 24.
- Brandon Howlett fell from 21 to 25.
- The 5th pick, Nathan Hickey, comes in at 25.
- Kutter Crawford had almost as big a jump as Wilkelman, up from 52 to 27, +25.
- Eddinson Paulino, a 2018 IFA, is ranked for the first time at # 29.
- Cameron Cannon up 9 at # 30.
- Eduard Bazardo fell to 31st, down 8.
- Enderso Lira, an IFA from this year, is on the list for the first time at 32.
- Jeisson Rosario fell from 24 to 33.
- Eduardo Vaughan is on a bit of a ranking roller coaster. He was at # 47 in January, 58 in June, out of the top 60 in July, and is now back at 34th, his highest ranking.
- Bradley Blalock and Shane Drohan are at 36 & 37, both down 9.
- Hudson Potts is next at 38, down 12.
- Yet another big riser in July was Ryan Fitzgerald. He was unranked over the winter and spring, 57th last month and is now at #39. His high water mark was at # 28 in June of '19.
- Durbin Feltman is down 10 at # 40. Durbin's highest ranking was in April of '19 at # 9.
- Brandon Walter, the 26th round pick from 2019, is ranked for the first time at # 41.
- Eduardo Lopez, down from 31 to 42.
- Pedro Castallanos, down from 38 to 44.
- Victor Santos, a new arrival from the Phillies system, debuts at 45.
- Chih-Jung Liu, down from 37 to 47.
- Niko Kavadas, the 11th round pick this year, is #48.
- Frank German and Grant Gambrell both fell by 17 down to 49 & 50 respectively.
- Freddy Valdez plummeted from the top 20 (18th) into the bottom 10 (51st).
- Devlin Granberg is at 52. The last time he made the top 60 was 2/1/20. His high point was at # 31 in July '19.
- Jaxx Groshans dropped from 42 to 58.
- Joe Davis, 19th pick in '19, is ranked for the first time at 59.
- Nathanael Cruz rounds out the top 60, falling from 46.
- Out of the top 60 since 6/1:
- Aldo Ramirez (from # 8) who went to Washington for Schwarber.
- Marcus Wilson (34), DFA'd and claimed by Seattle.
- Kaleb Ort (41)
- AJ Politi (43)
- Ryan Zeferjahn (47)
- Jacob Wallace (48)
- Darel Belen (49)
- Jorge Rodriguez (50)
- Bryan Gonzalez (51)
- Alex Scherff (53), to Minnesota for Robles & $.
- Juan Chacon (55)
- Kolk Cottam (59)
- Tyler Dearden (60)
[/ul] That's all, folks.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 9, 2021 17:35:54 GMT -5
Noah Song at 12? I liked the pick when it was made but hasn't that ship sailed or is it just a reminder of a talented guy we will not see?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 18:30:45 GMT -5
Give me a list of all the players you can think of that couldn't hit a high fastball that later learned to hit a high fastball. I don't believe that's a teachable skill. I mean one of the most famous current examples of an MLB player getting better is Mike Trout learning to hit the high fastball. I get that "Mike Trout did it" is not helpful, but it might actually be the most well known MLB player development story for current position players. Troy Tulowitzki made dramatic improvements there. This season Miguel Sano has gotten significantly better at that aspect of hitting. Someone who's better at baseballsavant than me might be able to come to a more statistical answer. \ There's pretty much nothing in either Trout or Tulo's histories that says they struggled with anything and Sano's K rates are in line with his career K rates. Other than that, your list is pretty solid.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 9, 2021 18:44:49 GMT -5
So then what you see is less important than how everyone else has him ranked ? I see. Doesn't that define saving face ? I'm also not so sure that the offensive bar for a second baseman is lower than for a shortstop. If anything, it's the other way around and that's where his problems lie. The group that is the collective second basemen is pretty clearly less than the group that is collectively shortstops though. I was actually impressed with his defense at the ATS, he was better than I expected. He made several plays at SS that Bogaerts has no shot at. I think I'm missing something in the bolded section, Ray could you clarify? SP has Houck 5th, which I thought is where the consensus has him ranked. Are you asking more from a perspective of why Houck is a 4.5 instead of a 5, or why Downs is a 5 instead of a 4.5? Or both? I'm particularly curious about Houck being at the 4.5 instead of a 5. It feels like he plays up slightly more than a fringe starter, and if he were in the pen he'd be in that elite set-up vs. middle-reliever tier. Chris, I assume he's likely at that 4.75 mark given he's the top of the 4.5 class but the 5 must be pretty close to getting tagged on him now. Fair?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 9, 2021 20:29:51 GMT -5
Tyler Dearden out of the top 60 entirely? Are the reports really that much worse than the numbers?
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Post by jaffinator on Aug 9, 2021 21:04:59 GMT -5
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 9, 2021 21:10:06 GMT -5
Early returns have the Sox crushing the '21 international class
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Post by alan on Aug 9, 2021 21:20:07 GMT -5
I mean one of the most famous current examples of an MLB player getting better is Mike Trout learning to hit the high fastball. I get that "Mike Trout did it" is not helpful, but it might actually be the most well known MLB player development story for current position players. Troy Tulowitzki made dramatic improvements there. This season Miguel Sano has gotten significantly better at that aspect of hitting. Someone who's better at baseballsavant than me might be able to come to a more statistical answer. \ There's pretty much nothing in either Trout or Tulo's histories that says they struggled with anything and Sano's K rates are in line with his career K rates. Other than that, your list is pretty solid. Savant splits the strikezone into a nine square division, so I just looked at the top 3 squares Trout's batting average on high pitches: 2020- .100, .200, .167 2021- .125, .333, .250 K% on high pitches: 2020-60%, 47%, 50% 2021-44%, 33%, 50% High pitches doesn't exactly mean high fastballs, but I would imagine that not one pitcher in the world would want to throw Trout a high breaking ball
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Post by jmei on Aug 9, 2021 21:26:10 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 9, 2021 21:58:28 GMT -5
Early returns have the Sox crushing the '21 international class Sounds great....but on what basis?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2021 22:40:57 GMT -5
Noah Song at 12? I liked the pick when it was made but hasn't that ship sailed or is it just a reminder of a talented guy we will not see? Literally nothing has changed on Song. Not sure why people are forgetting - the plan is (it seems at least) that he finishes flight school and then probably plans to apply for a waiver to play baseball. Tyler Dearden out of the top 60 entirely? Are the reports really that much worse than the numbers? FWIW, he's 63. There's a lot of guys back there it'd be nice to push into the top 60 but there's only so much room. But yeah, defense isn't great (LF only), neither is K rate (26.6%) albeit improved from the dismal 2019 mark. I'm curious about the walk rate spike and what's driving that. He's on the radar and easily could've been in the back of the top 60.
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Post by bcsox on Aug 9, 2021 23:02:34 GMT -5
Just curious but we have new prospects entering the system after a draft, and did I read it right that Thad Mata who hasn’t thrown a pitch all year jumped from 20 to 17?
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 10, 2021 0:14:31 GMT -5
Thaddeus Ward (not to be confused with Mata). Mayer was the only draftee ahead of him, and that evened out with the trade of Aldo Ramirez. He passed Valdez, whose rank last month was a total shot in the dark based on very limited info. So really he just moved ahead of Wong and Lugo. Just to give a little bit of an insight into how fluid it can be within the rankings, it basically has nothing to do with any of those three. In the personal rankings that I submitted, Winckowski moved ahead of Lugo and Wong, Valdez was re-evaluated, and I moved another player who I got a tiny bit overly exuberant in my June submission a couple spots lower, also dropping him behind Ward. That alone was basically enough to change their order.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 10, 2021 0:34:14 GMT -5
Thad Ward was ranked 8th on May 3, 2021. He was ranked 17th on August 8. He underwent TJ surgery in early June.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Aug 10, 2021 6:31:28 GMT -5
I hate to be that guy but for closure hypothetically where would Aldo Ramirez have ranked on this list?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 10, 2021 6:31:37 GMT -5
Thad Ward was ranked 8th on May 3, 2021. He was ranked 17th on August 8. He underwent TJ surgery in early June. We update the rankings monthly. He dropped to roughly where he is once it was reported he needed TJ. As James said, he "moved up" his month as a function of Valdez dropping way down and Lugo and Wong dropping slightly. I wouldn't view it as him moving up. Rankings are, of course, relative, right? We don't take a guy and lock him in at 20. If other players are moving around a guy who hasn't played, the guy who hasn't played will move as well.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 10, 2021 6:33:25 GMT -5
I hate to be that guy but for closure hypothetically where would Aldo Ramirez have ranked on this list? Probably somewhere between 9 and 11. He was ahead of Mata and neither pitched so there's your floor, and I would think Yorke would definitely be ahead of him at this point.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 10, 2021 11:35:53 GMT -5
Early returns have the Sox crushing the '21 international class Sounds great....but on what basis? Bleis at 23 and Lira at 32, higher than any '19 or '20 signees.
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Post by bcsox on Aug 10, 2021 12:25:33 GMT -5
Thank you James and Chris. Hypothetical but had the Sox signed Fabian, where roughly did you guys think he would end up. My guess is that would have been a tough evaluation. Give you give us any insight on the reviews you got on Valdez that sent him spiraling. When he arrived my hopes, obviously way off was that he would be in some form similar to Blaze.
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