SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2021 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
|
Post by soxinnj on Aug 11, 2021 13:21:00 GMT -5
Just a question about Stephen Scott. I know he’s 24 so he’s probably a little older for the A+ level, but he’s been hitting all year almost as well as big Joe Davis, but doesn’t he have more versatility on defense? Can’t he play OF/C/1B? Not saying he should be up the rankings, but just wondering.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 11, 2021 13:48:28 GMT -5
Just a question about Stephen Scott. I know he’s 24 so he’s probably a little older for the A+ level, but he’s been hitting all year almost as well as big Joe Davis, but doesn’t he have more versatility on defense? Can’t he play OF/C/1B? Not saying he should be up the rankings, but just wondering. Scott in Salem: 257 PA, .259/.381/.453 Davis in Salem: 211 PA, .333/.384/.577 Scott in GRE: 39 PA, .361/.410/.861 - and I note this is this high because he's homered in 4 straight. Davis in GRE: 76 PA, .338/.342/.635 But yeah, disagree he's hitting almost as well. Pretty big power gap in Salem and it's a really SSS in Greenville goosed by 4 HR in 4 games. That said, he's on the radar. Haven't seen him catch and he hasn't done it much (compare to Erro, who only started working there at instructs in 2020, compared to Scott who started working on it in Lowell in 2019, and who has been Salem's primary catcher post-Groshans), so he's still a 1B/OF type for me. Like all of these guys, he needs to show it the whole way up.
|
|
|
Post by soxinnj on Aug 11, 2021 14:03:50 GMT -5
Just a question about Stephen Scott. I know he’s 24 so he’s probably a little older for the A+ level, but he’s been hitting all year almost as well as big Joe Davis, but doesn’t he have more versatility on defense? Can’t he play OF/C/1B? Not saying he should be up the rankings, but just wondering. Scott in Salem: 257 PA, .259/.381/.453 Davis in Salem: 211 PA, .333/.384/.577 Scott in GRE: 39 PA, .361/.410/.861 - and I note this is this high because he's homered in 4 straight. Davis in GRE: 76 PA, .338/.342/.635 But yeah, disagree he's hitting almost as well. Pretty big power gap in Salem and it's a really SSS in Greenville goosed by 4 HR in 4 games. That said, he's on the radar. Haven't seen him catch and he hasn't done it much (compare to Erro, who only started working there at instructs in 2020, compared to Scott who started working on it in Lowell in 2019, and who has been Salem's primary catcher post-Groshans), so he's still a 1B/OF type for me. Like all of these guys, he needs to show it the whole way up. Fair enough I didn't look at their individual pages from Salem and see the big discrepancy in power. Thanks Chris.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2021 14:14:12 GMT -5
Forgive me if asked before, but interesting question... should bat only profiles be penalized a little less with the thought the NL will eventually be DH league?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 11, 2021 14:41:28 GMT -5
Thank you James and Chris. Hypothetical but had the Sox signed Fabian, where roughly did you guys think he would end up. My guess is that would have been a tough evaluation. Give you give us any insight on the reviews you got on Valdez that sent him spiraling. When he arrived my hopes, obviously way off was that he would be in some form similar to Blaze. Good questions! Our general feeling was 12 or 13, right there next to Jordan. Might've ended up a couple spots lower, but he was in that vicinity. I guess for Valdez what I'll say is that the initial ranking to him wasn't based on much information -- ranking him at #19 was too enthusiastic and wasn't really fair. Basically, he's got a ton of natural power, but he's quite raw, has a corner-only profile, and the swing is still a work in progress. I don't think it's that we don't like him so much as he's just more of a project than we (I) realized. It put him behind guys whose present skills were further ahead or whose defensive profiles give them more paths to success.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Aug 11, 2021 14:56:02 GMT -5
I'd push back that there's a big power gap between the two. There's a big batting average gap driving the gap in SLG if thats where you're seeing a gap in power. Another way to look at the Salem stats: Davis has a big BA advantage, Scott has a big supplementary on-base advantage (.122 vs. .051 IsoD), and Davis has a small power advantage (.244 vs. .194 IsoP). With BA perhaps being the least stable of the three, I'm not sure he's been much worse at the plate and would be tempted to combine the Salem and Greenville stats in which it looks even closer. All that said, I have Davis higher on my personal rankings too but its probably close?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 11, 2021 15:49:26 GMT -5
That's fair. FWIW, we weren't comparing the two when ranking, so I don't want to imply that's something we did.
Put it this way - Scott has been ranked previously in the 55-56 range, Davis hadn't. Scott could certainly climb back in. Not a huge gap there.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 14, 2021 22:00:34 GMT -5
Eck keeps referring to Houck as a future star. That sounds like a 7 to me. Eck isn't one to use insincere platitudes.
|
|
|
Post by unitspin on Aug 15, 2021 10:30:04 GMT -5
I always liked yorke but I never thought his power would develop this fast. Kid could be leapfrogging a lot of other prospects very soon. He looks like a future mlb top prospect. No pressure.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Aug 16, 2021 8:35:19 GMT -5
Noah Song at 12? I liked the pick when it was made but hasn't that ship sailed or is it just a reminder of a talented guy we will not see? Literally nothing has changed on Song. Not sure why people are forgetting - the plan is (it seems at least) that he finishes flight school and then probably plans to apply for a waiver to play baseball. Tyler Dearden out of the top 60 entirely? Are the reports really that much worse than the numbers? FWIW, he's 63. There's a lot of guys back there it'd be nice to push into the top 60 but there's only so much room. But yeah, defense isn't great (LF only), neither is K rate (26.6%) albeit improved from the dismal 2019 mark. I'm curious about the walk rate spike and what's driving that. He's on the radar and easily could've been in the back of the top 60. My point is flight school is what 18 to 22 months, If that was his dream and he makes it why go back to minor league baseball? If he decides to try baseball he will have been out of baseball for over 2 years. How long will it take him to get back up to strength and potentially to the majors? At what level does he start low A? Time is not his friend he is already 24. I just thought he should be sliding down the rankings as time passes and there is no development seen.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Aug 16, 2021 10:15:48 GMT -5
I don't think Song's age should matter to the Sox. Pitchers don't age the same way hitters do. If he has a successful career then the Sox will have his major league rights for ages 28-33 or so.
The moment he comes back the Sox will have a good prospect with a fresh arm and no weird 40 man roster issues to worry about.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2021 10:23:35 GMT -5
This makes me realize there's a very basic question I don't know the answer to: does age for a pitching prospect matter because it's physically/neurologically important to master the skill at a young age (like learning a foreign language)? Or does it matter because there are only so many bullets in the arm and you don't want to use them up before you get to the major leagues?
If it's the former then that's obviously a big issue for Song. But if it's the latter then it shouldn't matter at all.
But also if it's the latter then it shouldn't matter for, e.g., Ward that he's missing time with Tommy John (beyond concerns that he may be injury-prone), but I'm pretty sure Chris and/or others have mentioned that there IS a cost to losing the "development time" given his age. So then what exactly is the cost?
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Aug 16, 2021 10:55:12 GMT -5
Well, Ward does have roster issue headaches attached to him. Age is normally a good proxy for that. The Sox are looking at him being dead weight on the 40 man roster for years, plus he won't have much margin for error before he runs out of option years.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 16, 2021 12:57:32 GMT -5
When we rank someone, we're taking their entire situation into account. If a guy is going to be away from the game for a length of time that we have an idea of, we make that in. That's why you're not typically going to see guys falling over time who are out for the same reason unless it's a surprise they're not back yet.
That's why you won't see Song falling here. It's the same issue with no news. It might be different with a guy who is out for an indeterminate amount of time who starts to fall the longer he's out.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2021 19:14:01 GMT -5
Literally nothing has changed on Song. Not sure why people are forgetting - the plan is (it seems at least) that he finishes flight school and then probably plans to apply for a waiver to play baseball. FWIW, he's 63. There's a lot of guys back there it'd be nice to push into the top 60 but there's only so much room. But yeah, defense isn't great (LF only), neither is K rate (26.6%) albeit improved from the dismal 2019 mark. I'm curious about the walk rate spike and what's driving that. He's on the radar and easily could've been in the back of the top 60. My point is flight school is what 18 to 22 months, If that was his dream and he makes it why go back to minor league baseball? If he decides to try baseball he will have been out of baseball for over 2 years. How long will it take him to get back up to strength and potentially to the majors? At what level does he start low A? Time is not his friend he is already 24. I just thought he should be sliding down the rankings as time passes and there is no development seen. Age is actually a benefit here. Military time does not count towards his Rule 5 clock so, we'd hypothetically have his physical peak years with team control. All without ever having to protect him on the 40 man.
|
|
|
Post by fanofredsox on Aug 17, 2021 2:44:11 GMT -5
With Ryan Fernandez moving up to Greenville I was wondering if Casey Cobb & Devon Roedahl could soon be following? Also, how close were those 3 to the top 60? And what’s happened to Chase Shugart?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,913
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2021 3:16:11 GMT -5
This makes me realize there's a very basic question I don't know the answer to: does age for a pitching prospect matter because it's physically/neurologically important to master the skill at a young age (like learning a foreign language)? Or does it matter because there are only so many bullets in the arm and you don't want to use them up before you get to the major leagues? If it's the former then that's obviously a big issue for Song. But if it's the latter then it shouldn't matter at all. I studied this once, looking at top pitching prospects, IIRC. And I'm not 100% certain I'm remembering correctly, but 95% maybe .. . it was almost all years of pro experience. Age was barely a factor, or not all. IOW, college pitchers got to MLB older than HS pitchers. I didn't look at peaks.
Of course, this study didn't have anybody who spent a couple of years not pitching. But I see no neurological reason why refining your pitching skills at age X + 2 or X + 3 would be less good than doing so at age X.
This guy threw his first pro pitch at age 25, was in MLB the next year after 120 IP, had 1.5 bWAR in 63 games in relief in his first three seasons, and pitched in MLB till he was 39.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2021 8:11:36 GMT -5
My point is flight school is what 18 to 22 months, If that was his dream and he makes it why go back to minor league baseball? If he decides to try baseball he will have been out of baseball for over 2 years. How long will it take him to get back up to strength and potentially to the majors? At what level does he start low A? Time is not his friend he is already 24. I just thought he should be sliding down the rankings as time passes and there is no development seen. Age is actually a benefit here. Military time does not count towards his Rule 5 clock so, we'd hypothetically have his physical peak years with team control. All without ever having to protect him on the 40 man. I believe he still will be Rule 5 eligible at the same time, actually. His MLFA clock does toll though. Happened to discuss this with Mike just the other day. With Ryan Fernandez moving up to Greenville I was wondering if Casey Cobb & Devon Roedahl could soon be following? Also, how close were those 3 to the top 60? And what’s happened to Chase Shugart? None were really close. I would need to see them performing at a higher level before I'd care much in terms of ranking. Shugart just hasn't had a very good year. I'm more interested in what he looks like out of the bullpen at this point.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 18, 2021 17:27:12 GMT -5
Age is actually a benefit here. Military time does not count towards his Rule 5 clock so, we'd hypothetically have his physical peak years with team control. All without ever having to protect him on the 40 man. I believe he still will be Rule 5 eligible at the same time, actually. His MLFA clock does toll though. Happened to discuss this with Mike just the other day. With Ryan Fernandez moving up to Greenville I was wondering if Casey Cobb & Devon Roedahl could soon be following? Also, how close were those 3 to the top 60? And what’s happened to Chase Shugart? None were really close. I would need to see them performing at a higher level before I'd care much in terms of ranking. Shugart just hasn't had a very good year. I'm more interested in what he looks like out of the bullpen at this point. It's been a while but I believe there's wording relative to military time. If they changed it, it's not at all a good look for MLB. The ins and outs aren't my specialty at all so I could be wrong here. I do know there's something relevant. Also, hypothetically, I believe that if a player was on the 40 man and was a reserve military and then was called to duty, he'd get MLB service time. ADD: When Pat Tillman was killed in Afghanistan there was an article regarding special provisions in all the sports for military time. I searched but couldn't find it. Maybe there's a separate section for military time.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 19, 2021 11:01:59 GMT -5
It's easy to forget about a guy when they've never "done anything for you". I kind of wrote Connor Wong off as a prospect this year, even when he performed in Boston I wrote it off as a small sample size. After seeing how well he has started to hit lately I've been given him a longer look and I don't know if I never realized this before or if I just forgot but his offensive stat line is fairly impressive for a catcher.
If he develops into that .800 OPS guy in the bigs that he's held in the minors that's very valuable behind the plate, and he may hold more value there when the Robo umps come. Of course, I'd be willing to bet that several years after Robo umps the big league average stat line for a catcher improves. Still, he offers an intriguing profile as a guy who can play the utility role while throwing the catcher position into the mix.
It would be a little ironic if he smashes expectations and becomes the gem of the Mookie Betts trade and not Downs. I would say if he keeps this up and carries his bat into 2022 that he could start to rise in the rankings but given his position, level, and profile he might graduate before he could make any significant leaps.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Aug 19, 2021 11:06:17 GMT -5
It's easy to forget about a guy when they've never "done anything for you". I kind of wrote Connor Wong off as a prospect this year, even when he performed in Boston I wrote it off as a small sample size. After seeing how well he has started to hit lately I've been given him a longer look and I don't know if I never realized this before or if I just forgot but his offensive stat line is fairly impressive for a catcher. If he develops into that .800 OPS guy in the bigs that he's held in the minors that's very valuable behind the plate, and he may hold more value there when the Robo umps come. Of course, I'd be willing to bet that several years after Robo umps the big league average stat line for a catcher improves. Still, he offers an intriguing profile as a guy who can play the utility role while throwing the catcher position into the mix. It would be a little ironic if he smashes expectations and becomes the gem of the Mookie Betts trade and not Downs. I would say if he keeps this up and carries his bat into 2022 that he could start to rise in the rankings but given his position, level, and profile he might graduate before he could make any significant leaps. Wong has been a strikeout machine, though. That has to change a bit for him to succeed in the bigs. But he seems like a decent bet to be a good bench guy… would be nice to have a guy who can play all over including catcher.
|
|
|
Post by bcsox on Aug 19, 2021 11:56:45 GMT -5
I feel the same ay about Wong. I dont take him seriously. I think a large part of it is that he is listed as a catcher, as has the body of a slap hitting middle infielder from the 80's. He physically doesnt look anything at all like a guy who can handle the rigors of 100 plus games behind the plate. He reminds me of Swihart with regard to his build.
AS for the rankings, overall an exceptional job in my opinion. Mu only huge disagreement is the continued high standing of Song. I would drop him significantly, with the caveat that if he comes back and returns to his previous level, then he is a fast riser. However three years since throwing a pitch in organized ball, and no recent comments as to whether he ever intends to leave the Naval Academy, now that he is close to his wings. To me, he is closer to Sid Finch, than Sid Fernandez.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 19, 2021 12:14:48 GMT -5
I believe he still will be Rule 5 eligible at the same time, actually. His MLFA clock does toll though. Happened to discuss this with Mike just the other day. None were really close. I would need to see them performing at a higher level before I'd care much in terms of ranking. Shugart just hasn't had a very good year. I'm more interested in what he looks like out of the bullpen at this point. It's been a while but I believe there's wording relative to military time. If they changed it, it's not at all a good look for MLB. The ins and outs aren't my specialty at all so I could be wrong here. I do know there's something relevant. Also, hypothetically, I believe that if a player was on the 40 man and was a reserve military and then was called to duty, he'd get MLB service time. ADD: When Pat Tillman was killed in Afghanistan there was an article regarding special provisions in all the sports for military time. I searched but couldn't find it. Maybe there's a separate section for military time. (c) PLAYERS SUBJECT TO SELECTION. All players on the Minor League Reserve Lists of Major League and Minor League Clubs, except players on the Voluntarily Retired, Disqualified or Ineligible Lists, shall be subject to selection by other Major League Clubs at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting in accordance with the following: (1) A player without previous Major or Minor League service who signs with a Major League or Minor League Club shall be subject to selection based on the following: (A) if 18 years of age or under on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies; (B) if 19 years of age or over on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fourth Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies; (C) if the signing date of a player’s first Major or Minor League contract is between: (i) the conclusion of the championship season for the Major or Minor League Club to which the player is assigned on such contract and (ii) the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, then the player shall be deemed to have signed after the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, for purposes of this Rule 5(c)(1). (2) A player who is re-signed by a Club within one year from the date the Club released the player shall be subject to draft at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting following the date of the latest contract with that Club. (3) A player who has been subject to draft at a Rule 5 Selection Meeting shall be subject to draft at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 1 (Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting. (4) A player: (A) whose contract has been assigned outright by a Major League Club to a Minor League Club, (B) who has been signed as a free agent to a Minor League Uniform Player Contract for services in the following year and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2), or (C) who has been released unconditionally from a Minor League roster and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2), shall be subject to selection at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 1 (Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting. (5) A Major League Club may designate any player on one of its Minor League Reserve Lists to be subject to selection who otherwise would not be selectable under this Rule 5.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Aug 19, 2021 12:52:50 GMT -5
So Song is Rule 5 eligible no matter what after the 2022 season. That is a bummer.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Aug 19, 2021 13:01:29 GMT -5
So if he doesn't come back next year, the Sox could presumably decide to add him to the 40. Does he start eating option years at that point?
If he gets taken in the Rule 5, but he wanted to hang out in the military for two more years, then he'd stick with that team until he came back to baseball, at which point normal Rule 5 stay-in-the-majors rules would apply. Is that right?
|
|
|