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4/2-4/4 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
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Post by manfred on Apr 4, 2021 19:47:01 GMT -5
People say “it is only 3 games.” Well, I guess you assume a 3-game deficit won’t be the difference after 162. Personally, when I have a team already projected to struggle, I view spotting the nearest team to us in the division an immediate 3 game lead as not something to shrug off. And if we won by blowouts, I’d say great! Keep it up! But I’d say the same thing I’m saying as we lose: the Orioles are terrible. Ir sucks that we're two wins behind the pace we expected. We have 159 games left to make up those two. In all seriousness, of *course* there are 159 games left. That is why I have not panicked about, say, Verdugo looking awful. One assumes he’ll get his hits. He started slow last, year, too. But many of these guys are risks who carry a decent chance of playing — like this! That is, many of us said before the year that this might just be what you get with Renfroe. This might be Richards. This might be Kiké. The issue isn’t that it is three games; the issue is that the play reflects a style that may be baked in. I like Dalbec, but there are going to be at least 122 games he does NOT homer. When he doesn’t, his value may be almost nil. Cordero basically looks like a guy who will have a pitcher accidentally hit his bat 30 times for dingers. But what else? Who will walk? Who will single, for god’s sake? You brought up the OBP... this is a team that is going to give opposing pitchers a lot of easy innings. I don’t think that is just three games. That is the last 3 years of Renfroe career. Kiké’s career (hell, Kiké has a .222 OBP right now, but that is only .090 below his career... he’s not off to THAT bad a start!). And on.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2021 20:08:21 GMT -5
Verdugo got a break Xander and Vazquez played the whole game. Monday must be an off day for both I don't think they were giving Verdugo a break, they were giving Cordero 3 more innings playing monster.
Other thoughts:
Tough less, but it wasn't as close as the score would have it. O's left 14 men on.
Whitock's expected hits allowed was 2.36. That's a .182 xBA.
Research I expect Elias not to do: where does Whitllock's 3.1 3 0 0 0 5 rank among debut appearances by a Rule 5 pitcher? You could look at (SO-BB) / 9; Whitlock is 13.5. When Vaughn Eshelman threw 6 shotout innings against the Yankees in '95, he was -1.5. Respective BABIPS were .375 and and .167.
Who will get his first hit in a Sox uni, Renfroe (7 PA so far) or Franchy (5)?
I spent most of the winter projecting Taylor to start in AAA (with all healthy), but finally decided that they must know something I didn't, because they didn't pick up a LHR to push him there on the depth chart, as I thought they would. Houck or Valdez could take his roster spot once E-Rod and Brasier return.
You can bet that they're running scenarios to see if Houck can get enough work in at MLB to not slow his development. But now I want to raise the question, using math-y numbers ... is 10 innings of pitching simulated games at the ATS against the same group of minor leaguers day after day actually better than throwing N (e.g. 6) in MLB, plus 10 - N (e.g., 4) 4 innings worth of side sessions monitored by the coaching staff? I think it's clear that there is some number N where being in MLB is actually better for his development. Note that in MLB but not the ATS, he'd be learning how to work hitters with 'Tek.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2021 20:34:47 GMT -5
Ir sucks that we're two wins behind the pace we expected. We have 159 games left to make up those two. In all seriousness, of *course* there are 159 games left. That is why I have not panicked about, say, Verdugo looking awful. One assumes he’ll get his hits. He started slow last, year, too. But many of these guys are risks who carry a decent chance of playing — like this! That is, many of us said before the year that this might just be what you get with Renfroe. This might be Richards. This might be Kiké. The issue isn’t that it is three games; the issue is that the play reflects a style that may be baked in. I like Dalbec, but there are going to be at least 122 games he does NOT homer. When he doesn’t, his value may be almost nil. Cordero basically looks like a guy who will have a pitcher accidentally hit his bat 30 times for dingers. But what else? Who will walk? Who will single, for god’s sake? You brought up the OBP... this is a team that is going to give opposing pitchers a lot of easy innings. I don’t think that is just three games. That is the last 3 years of Renfroe career. Kiké’s career (hell, Kiké has a .222 OBP right now, but that is only .090 below his career... he’s not off to THAT bad a start!). And on. I get your point. They added 3 guys to the lineup because they thought they could and would be better than they had been in their careers ... and so far they have gone 1/16.
However, facing the same pitchers and in the same cold weather, the team's three best hitters have gone 1/25, BB.
So just how far does the slow start by the new guys move the needle in the direction of "wrong about their upside?" Personally, I need a magnifying glass. The time to start worrying is when the established hitttrs are raking and the newbies are not joining the party.
The team being too dependent on SA and weak on OBP remains a problem. But in the long run, my guess is that they lose 2 wins versus a balanced offense of the same overall perceived quality. Total guess, and don't anyone say anything provocative that will make me research it!
(Even though, immediately after typing that, I thought of exactly what regression you would run to get your answer!)
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 4, 2021 20:48:00 GMT -5
That has to be one of the worst performances in a series by a lineup I've ever seen: Leadoff (Hernandez) - 1/10, 2 BB, SF, 0.331 OPS Second (Verdugo, Franchy PH) - 0/12, 0.000 OPS Clean-up (Xander) - 1/12, 0.167 OPS 5th (Devers/Marwin) - 0/9, 2 BB, 0.222 OPS Renfranchy Platoon - 0/11, 0.000 OPS 9th (Dalbec) - 0/10, 1 BB, 0.091 OPS Other than Renfranchy and Dalbec, Ks weren't really a problem. Obviously JDM did well (1.500 OPS), but when your 1st/2nd/4th/5th go 2/43 around him, you're getting swept. I'm not going to overreact to that, as the offense can't be that bad all year, but man I'm not sure if there's anything worse than watching a 500-team middling their way through the season. I sure hope the July-Sept team will be more exciting. If the lineup turns into a total train wreck, Dalbec can be optioned. Franchy & Renfroe can be optioned. I suppose those 2 could be useful pieces next year, even if they're dreadful this year.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 4, 2021 20:55:48 GMT -5
Curious with Richards, he of the high spin rate. Was it lack of stuff or poor location....that led to the poor results. And, if it was a location problem, is that his historical M.O....command that comes and goes or is this the result of him still working back from injury/surgery?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 4, 2021 22:45:48 GMT -5
So again....when does the season start?
It was such a pathetic display this weekend at home against the one team that projects to be worse in the division. There are 159 more games to go so this doesn't have to be the same exact crap we saw last season, even if they played that way.
I suspect that sooner or later (they might start the season 0-6 after Tampa gets through with them) the Sox will get straightened out a bit and play closer to the 79-83 projection I have them pegged at.
But with this kind of team, there is so much variance. It was easy for a lot of people, myself included, to squint in a way where you can see the team reaching the upper 80s in wins and playing for a wild card spot.
But of course, what a lot of people didn't want to say, because everybody is always so optimistic when they have yet to lose a game that counts - is that this team is volatile enough that if you squint another way you can see a scenario where this team loses 90 games.
And they certainly played that way this week as their weaknesses that you worried about were on display. They had an offense that flat out couldn't hit - it felt like if they couldn't hit a HR, with their HR or nothing offense they weren't going to be able to string hits together to score runs. The defense, especially on the left side, was terrible.
The starting pitching gave them a game where they were buried before they even got started. They have yet to have a late inning lead to test out their pen.
What I got out of this weekend is that two of their best starters aren't likely going to be in the rotation for awhile. I get Tanner Houck getting sent down. I want to see that he's got a handle on his control issues. Every time he has pitched in the majors he has been the best version of himself. I keep waiting for people to anoint him the savior and then go out and walk half a dozen guys in 2 and 1/3 innings.
I still think when it's said and done, there's a good chance Houck will be better than either Richards, Pivetta, or Perez. If he's consistent enough in the minors or whatever they're doing now, he'll be back within a month with a legit chance to grab a rotation spot.
I also think that Garrett Whitlock is good enough to be given a legit crack at the rotation. I think wasting him as a long man like they did today doesn't accomplish much. I get that he's coming off of an injury, but if they can stretch him to go 5 every 5th day, they might find he's almost as good as anybody else in the rotation if not better. Despite that I think he will be the long man for at least the first month.
So that means in the first month the pitching will be sub-optimal. Of course if the hitters keep hitting as they have and the pen struggles or the defense is as bad....
I mean it's sad watching Devers regress at 3b. For awhile I felt he was coming into his own. I felt he had the tools to become a decent to good defensive 3b. He still probably does, but it's hard to tell.
The best Red Sox team ideally has him at 3b, Dalbec at 1b and JDM DHing, but if JDM rebounds and rakes (at least I think he looks pretty good right now), I can see Bloom trying to trade him with the hopes that Devers takes the DH spot and that Bogaerts moves to 3b and he picks up a rangy SS or turns to Arauz to shore up the infield defense.
If this scenario happens, which is quite possible, then that turns X into a 3b where his market value might not be where he wants it to be and if he still wants to be SS, that could make it more likely X opts out and leaves...and the other things is...if Devers really can't hack 3b and isn't a 1b (with Casas coming up soon I don't see Devers as a long-term 1b), then he's a DH - and a guy that I doubt Bloom extends unless he gets some sort of hometown discount. Because Devers is a guy with a really good hit tool whose BA was down last year and his inability to walk leaves him OBP short of great. Devers has to hit .300 with power, because if he doesn't, he's a fringy major leaguer. I suspect that Devers will start raking soon, but I'm not as hopeful about him defensively as I used to be.
And to Manfred, I think you have it pegged right with Dalbec. What do you do with him the other 122 games where he's not whacking HRs? Will he hit enough/get on base enough to contribute when he's not homering. I do suspect he'll run into a streak of like 5 homers in a week soon, but I hope he can do more when he's not in one of those streaks he's capable of going on.
Just some observations about a team that looked really horrible this weekend, when they really shouldn't have.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 5, 2021 7:06:17 GMT -5
Devers looks like he has the yips whether it's throwing or fielding. If so, those are very hard to shake. They are usually brought on by experience with and fear of additional failure. Ask any golfer with putting woes how cruel they can be. Devers wants so badly to do well and hangs his head in discouragement when he doesn't. I believe that he is currently governed by fielding fears. And so far at least, a position switch with Dalbec isn't in the cards as some reports indicated that Dalbec is stiff and may have regressed at third...plus, not athletic enough. True enough, with Casas in the wings, 3 into 1 at first doesn't go. Someone becomes DH...someone may go or platoon. It's no surprise that no conversations re a Devers contract extension have been had to date.
I also agree that JDM, provided that he has a good season, may punch his ticket out come August to help Bloom continue to restock. He'll be a more valuable player to a team elsewhere. His age doesn't neatly coincide with the next championship go.
As to Richards, he has always had a fairly high walk rate, even when outstanding. But I'm wondering whether injuries have robbed him of the necessary command or whether his stuff has diminished (both?). This spring there was talk of mechanical issues being a problem and his last outing gave hope that those had been worked out. Yesterday, even I had an urge to go to the bat rack.
These games have once again underscored how little spring stats mean when the bell rings. We were not playing the Dodgers. And our record in sacred Fenway has been terrible for some time. This isn't a blip on the screen.
90 wins, 266 homers...?..Ah, I don't think so.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 5, 2021 9:01:01 GMT -5
Devers' footwork was always his biggest weakness at third base and it's gone backward to the point where it's a real problem. He has the physical skills to play the position and he really took a step forward in 2019. I don't think it's physical conditioning either, he looks fit. I don't know if he's overthinking something and getting himself out of position or what. Not great.
I'm almost more concerned about him spending too much time and energy trying to fix the defense that his bat continues to flatline. But learning 1B isn't as easy as it sounds and DH isn't really open.
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Post by manfred on Apr 5, 2021 9:06:15 GMT -5
Devers' footwork was always his biggest weakness at third base and it's gone backward to the point where it's a real problem. He has the physical skills to play the position and he really took a step forward in 2019. I don't think it's physical conditioning either, he looks fit. I don't know if he's overthinking something and getting himself out of position or what. Not great. I'm almost more concerned about him spending too much time and energy trying to fix the defense that his bat continues to flatline. But learning 1B isn't as easy as it sounds and DH isn't really open. This is my worry. He seems to be letting defense get in his head. I dan live with him being a bit more like Manny: if he makes an error, shrug, and ask if he bats soon.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 5, 2021 10:00:45 GMT -5
I'm just glad baseball is back, the worst-case scenario by the time I start really caring about a horrible start I'd probably be content with dreaming of a top 5 pick again. Then again, this isn't the NFL but still. Over the last couple of decades, the Sox have done well to tear it all down and recreate themselves again.
Three games are just three games but the weird thing was I expected this team to hit and the pitching to be questionable but Richards start aside I thought the pitching was good in this series and the offense was nonexistent.
If E-Rod comes back strong this year and Houck works his way into the rotation as a viable #3/4 guy and Sale comes back mid-season I still think this team can compete for a wild card if they hit, and I think they will.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 5, 2021 12:01:15 GMT -5
Watched the early part of he game. Richards had no command at all, just a stark contrast to the first two starters. On the upside, while I was busy and didn't get to watch, Whitlock looks like the real deal from the numbers he posted. And while it's great that Martinez seems to have climbed out of the hole he was in last year, the offense better find it's footing soon. It isn't going to get any easier against Tampa Bay.
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