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4/5-4/7 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 5, 2021 6:56:07 GMT -5
4/5 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 2-0, 6.89, 15.2 IP, 17K:6BB*) vs Rays (RHP Michael Wacha, 1-4, 6.62, 34.0 IP, 37K:7BB*) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 4/6 Red Sox (LHP Martin Perez, 3-5, 4.50, 62.0 IP, 46K:28BB*) vs Rays (RHP Tyler Glasnow, 0-0, 0.00, 6.0 IP, 6K:0BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 4/7 Red Sox (RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 0.1, 1.69, 5.1 IP, 4K:1BB) vs Rays (LHP Ryan Yarbrough, 0-0, 0.00, 5.2 IP, 3K:0BB) 1:10 pm ET, Youtube/WEEI * 2020 stats MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2021: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 5, 2021 8:29:46 GMT -5
I hope Pivetta gets a few starts to try to do his thing, made adjustments if he needs to, and go on a run. Obviously folks are going to overreact to whatever he does (especially if he pitches poorly and they go 0-4), but he's someone there really is an upside to see if he can figure it out.
The worst thing to do would be to get into the Duquette-era habit of giving everyone 2-3 starts and cutting bait and cycling through so many players that they aren't properly able to evaluate any of them.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 5, 2021 9:02:39 GMT -5
Team OBP is 29th of 30 ... rising above 20th might make this team watchable
Wed & Thu face LHP. ERod goes on Thur ?
Off day on Friday in Baltimore
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Post by manfred on Apr 5, 2021 9:07:46 GMT -5
I hope Pivetta gets a few starts to try to do his thing, made adjustments if he needs to, and go on a run. Obviously folks are going to overreact to whatever he does (especially if he pitches poorly and they go 0-4), but he's someone there really is an upside to see if he can figure it out. The worst thing to do would be to get into the Duquette-era habit of giving everyone 2-3 starts and cutting bait and cycling through so many players that they aren't properly able to evaluate any of them. There is no reason to be bad AND have a quick hook. Let’s let Pivetta get a season. They aren’t going anywhere, so if he has to work through stuff, now is the time.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 5, 2021 9:49:06 GMT -5
I hope Pivetta gets a few starts to try to do his thing, made adjustments if he needs to, and go on a run. Obviously folks are going to overreact to whatever he does (especially if he pitches poorly and they go 0-4), but he's someone there really is an upside to see if he can figure it out. The worst thing to do would be to get into the Duquette-era habit of giving everyone 2-3 starts and cutting bait and cycling through so many players that they aren't properly able to evaluate any of them. There is no reason to be bad AND have a quick hook. Let’s let Pivetta get a season. They aren’t going anywhere, so if he has to work through stuff, now is the time. Supposedly the Rays were interested in acquiring Pivetta. That makes me feel better about his potential. Hopefully the analytics finally break his way.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 5, 2021 9:51:47 GMT -5
Team OBP is 31st of 32 ... rising above 20th might make this team watchable Wed & Thu face LHP. ERod goes on Thur ? Off day on Friday in Baltimore You know, this doesn't seem unrealistic. The Diamondbacks for example are at .265 OBP with a K/BB ratio of 43/9. The Red Sox are 24/6.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 5, 2021 10:08:03 GMT -5
I hope Pivetta gets a few starts to try to do his thing, made adjustments if he needs to, and go on a run. Obviously folks are going to overreact to whatever he does (especially if he pitches poorly and they go 0-4), but he's someone there really is an upside to see if he can figure it out. The worst thing to do would be to get into the Duquette-era habit of giving everyone 2-3 starts and cutting bait and cycling through so many players that they aren't properly able to evaluate any of them. There is no reason to be bad AND have a quick hook. Let’s let Pivetta get a season. They aren’t going anywhere, so if he has to work through stuff, now is the time. Oh yeah, this declaration reminds me about your absolutely unshakeable confidence that the Red Sox couldn't possibly exceed even your own prediction of 86 wins.
(FWIW, fangraphs gives them a 26% chance of making the playoffs. Flipping two heads in a row.)
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Post by manfred on Apr 5, 2021 10:23:50 GMT -5
There is no reason to be bad AND have a quick hook. Let’s let Pivetta get a season. They aren’t going anywhere, so if he has to work through stuff, now is the time. Oh yeah, this declaration reminds me about your absolutely unshakeable confidence that the Red Sox couldn't possibly exceed even your own prediction of 86 wins.
(FWIW, fangraphs gives them a 26% chance of making the playoffs. Flipping two heads in a row.)
If you go back to the prediction thread, you will note that “not going anywhere” does not put me on a limb around here. That was before they got trounced by the ostensible-worst team in the AL East in a way that exposed many of the very flaws that had been discussed all winter. I am not making a Papal declaration. Miracle runs happen. I am, however, projecting based on relatively safe odds. Add: Fangraphs also has us as a fourth place team, and has 7 teams with higher playoff odds... and the Indians nipping at our tails. I hardly view that as a sturdy refutation of this being a highly unlikely season. Second add: Serious question. Do we think 90 wins gets a WC? It certainly didn’t in 2019. But call it 90. The Sox now need to go 90-69. Am I crazy to think that is too ambitious? And then to think 90 wins may not be enough anyway? 94-65? 96-63 (lowest win total of a 2019 playoff team)? I don’t think I’m being a pessimist. It just seems like math.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 5, 2021 10:46:52 GMT -5
Oh yeah, this declaration reminds me about your absolutely unshakeable confidence that the Red Sox couldn't possibly exceed even your own prediction of 86 wins.
(FWIW, fangraphs gives them a 26% chance of making the playoffs. Flipping two heads in a row.)
If you go back to the prediction thread, you will note that “not going anywhere” does not put me on a limb around here. That was before they got trounced by the ostensible-worst team in the AL East in a way that exposed many of the very flaws that had been discussed all winter. I am not making a Papal declaration. Miracle runs happen. I am, however, projecting based on relatively safe odds. Add: Fangraphs also has us as a fourth place team, and has 7 teams with higher playoff odds... and the Indians nipping at our tails. I hardly view that as a sturdy refutation of this being a highly unlikely season. Second add: Serious question. Do we think 90 wins gets a WC? It certainly didn’t in 2019. But call it 90. The Sox now need to go 90-69. Am I crazy to think that is too ambitious? And then to think 90 wins may not be enough anyway? 94-65? 96-63 (lowest win total of a 2019 playoff team)? I don’t think I’m being a pessimist. It just seems like math. Maybe this is just semantic and we can nip it in the bud right now: I say that if something has a 1 in 4 chance of happening, that means it could happen, and therefore it makes no sense to say "they aren't going anywhere"; perhaps you're interpretation of a 1 in 4 chance is that it would amount to a "miracle." But you don't seem to be disputing those odds, so maybe we can leave it at that.
Sure, I think 90 wins might get a wild card. The AL looks like the Yankees at the top, and then a scrum of like 8 teams all vying for the other four playoff spots. A couple of those will probably emerge as really strong teams, but that still leaves several competing for the two wild card spots. It could come down to a race between a bunch of 80-something win teams.
(If anyone wants to look up how many 90-or-fewer-win teams have finished in position for a second wild card, including in the years when there was only one wild card... that would basically be my prediction of the odds of it happening against this year.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2021 11:20:48 GMT -5
Really hoping the struggling hitters find it tonight, because tomorrow ain't the day to try and figure it out...
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Post by humanbeingbean on Apr 5, 2021 11:30:13 GMT -5
Maybe playing under the lights instead will have a positive effect.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,483
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Post by shagworthy on Apr 5, 2021 11:31:15 GMT -5
Current mood.
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Post by manfred on Apr 5, 2021 12:05:50 GMT -5
It's 3 games, step off the ledge fellas. They got two good performances from starters and some depth for when they need it. They're going to hit and have some replacement options for those who don't. I predicted 93 wins and still feel fine with that number. Before I can see 93-66 here out, I need to see something big from Pivetta and Perez. If those guys are mediocre, it’ll be tough to have a .585 win% with a rough 3-5 in the rotation. Am optimistic about Pivetta, though. Really hope the kid reaches his potential.
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Post by huskies15 on Apr 5, 2021 12:32:10 GMT -5
Honestly, just want to see some hard contact. Outside of JDM no one has found the barrel.
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Post by rjw on Apr 5, 2021 14:21:40 GMT -5
It's 3 games, step off the ledge fellas. Wait a minute! Whaddya mean by "...step off the ledge..."?!? Don't you mean "Step back from the ledge"?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2021 14:48:17 GMT -5
It's 3 games, step off the ledge fellas. Wait a minute! Whaddya mean by "...step off the ledge..."?!? Don't you mean "Step back from the ledge"?
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Post by rjw on Apr 5, 2021 15:47:52 GMT -5
Haha, yeah step back. There's a reason I don't write for a living. I'll fix that before someone gets mad. I'm not ready to step off yet, but I may reconsider if they lose tonight....
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Post by incandenza on Apr 5, 2021 15:55:17 GMT -5
Our Leadoff Hitter Has a Career .286 OBP vs. RHP Watch:
Kiké is 0-6, 1 BB against righties so far this season.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,704
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Post by nomar on Apr 5, 2021 16:53:56 GMT -5
Kiké isn’t good enough to even play every day let alone lead off. Utility players lose their sheen when they’re basically just starters all hopping from position to position.
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 5, 2021 17:14:27 GMT -5
Don't like sitting Dalbec today against a weaker pitcher like Wacha. Is he supposed to get it going tomorrow against Glasnow?
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 5, 2021 17:15:56 GMT -5
Our Leadoff Hitter Has a Career .286 OBP vs. RHP Watch:
Kiké is 0-6, 1 BB against righties so far this season.
How is the likely alternative doing so far? 0-11 with 0 BB. Back off, boys. It’s too early to step off the ledge.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 5, 2021 17:27:23 GMT -5
Our Leadoff Hitter Has a Career .286 OBP vs. RHP Watch:
Kiké is 0-6, 1 BB against righties so far this season.
How is the likely alternative doing so far? 0-11 with 0 BB. Back off, boys. Itâs too early to step off the ledge. Haha. Indeed. But I'm on the record since before the start of the season saying Kiké shouldn't lead off against righties; it's not a reactive thing. I'd still want Mr. 0-11 to have the job.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 5, 2021 17:42:33 GMT -5
Wait a minute! Whaddya mean by "...step off the ledge..."?!? Don't you mean "Step back from the ledge"? Love me some Archer. R.I.P Jessica Walter.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Apr 5, 2021 18:14:20 GMT -5
Did Pivetta throw 97 in Philly?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,704
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Post by nomar on Apr 5, 2021 18:22:25 GMT -5
Glad he got out of there. Seemed like he was panicking for a second
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