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Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 25, 2021 22:54:45 GMT -5
I am sure the prospect will be in our top-20, but I’m also sure he won’t be in our top-5. And whole our system is getting much longer on guys who are projected as ok players or back end starters or relievers, we are not growing the top of the system. Downs is the only guy we’ve gotten who would reshuffle a better system. This isn’t a blasting of Bloom... he has not been moving guys who are likely to bring game changers (even Beni, himself a former elite prospect). But it is to say that at both the major and minor league level, I see a lot more motion than progress. They have not reached the point, if I may play dialectitian, of quantity becoming quality. The draft this year could budge our system in the rankings, but at the moment, we seem to have only one guy who could be a game changer when he hits Fenway. I recently submitted a question to the podcast along these lines - basically at what point does it become a concern that while we are doing a good job replenishing depth in the farm, we aren’t doing much to add blue chip guys (which is obviously hard, but eventually you need cheap stars if you’re going for AL Dodgers). Interested to hear Ian and Chris’ take on that.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 25, 2021 23:06:20 GMT -5
We traded Mookie and got Verdugo and Downs. That's one blue chipper and a 50 FV-type. Not sure what other moves the team is supposed to make beyond that. Trade Xander? Devers? They could probably get a blue chip return, but... I think the drawback to making such moves is clear, yes?
It just takes a few years to build a system. Give it time.
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Post by manfred on Feb 25, 2021 23:14:32 GMT -5
We traded Mookie and got Verdugo and Downs. That's one blue chipper and a 50 FV-type. Not sure what other moves the team is supposed to make beyond that. Trade Xander? Devers? They could probably get a blue chip return, but... I think the drawback to making such moves is clear, yes? It just takes a few years to build a system. Give it time. I said he hadn’t moved guys.... this was not a criticism— beyond that we are in a bit of stasis. Don’t get me started on you-know-what, which was trading down in talent, however you want to slot returns. I am sure Mike Trout could get 3 50 FV-types. But for the rest... it takes time, of course. But a) the sense that a lot has happened comes with a caveat; and b) some have been asking why we are still a lower-tier system, and the answer is partly that adding guys to the bottom half of a top-20 in a system that is very bad doesn’t move you much relative to teams where those guys are not top 20 guys. It is not, however, a huge help that our first pick (yes, 2nd round) from 2019 is not even top-40, and our first pick from last year is behind a guy flying jets. This draft will be massively important.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 25, 2021 23:18:29 GMT -5
We traded Mookie and got Verdugo and Downs. That's one blue chipper and a 50 FV-type. Not sure what other moves the team is supposed to make beyond that. Trade Xander? Devers? They could probably get a blue chip return, but... I think the drawback to making such moves is clear, yes? It just takes a few years to build a system. Give it time. Let’s hope the #4 overall pick is an instant blue chipper. I still also feel that there are going to be some surprises. Good and bad, as far as Prospects go. We have to remember that last year was a total write off for a lot of them.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 26, 2021 0:41:59 GMT -5
We traded Mookie and got Verdugo and Downs. That's one blue chipper and a 50 FV-type. Not sure what other moves the team is supposed to make beyond that. Trade Xander? Devers? They could probably get a blue chip return, but... I think the drawback to making such moves is clear, yes? It just takes a few years to build a system. Give it time. I said he hadn’t moved guys.... this was not a criticism— beyond that we are in a bit of stasis. Don’t get me started on you-know-what, which was trading down in talent, however you want to slot returns. I am sure Mike Trout could get 3 50 FV-types. But for the rest... it takes time, of course. But a) the sense that a lot has happened comes with a caveat; and b) some have been asking why we are still a lower-tier system, and the answer is partly that adding guys to the bottom half of a top-20 in a system that is very bad doesn’t move you much relative to teams where those guys are not top 20 guys. It is not, however, a huge help that our first pick (yes, 2nd round) from 2019 is not even top-40, and our first pick from last year is behind a guy flying jets. This draft will be massively important. Well, I was mainly responding to JimmyM asking about whether it was a "concern" that the team wasn't adding blue chip talent.
But I basically agree with all this. I think Bloom has done a fine job of filling up the middle tier of prospects, and maybe one or two of those guys will pop into the elite tier this season. That would be nice! But losing that international signing money because of cheating, and losing the 2nd rounder in 2020 because of cheating, and picking late in '17/'18/'19 because of the team being good in previous seasons, and Dombrowski trading away the likes of Kopech and other young talent... it adds up.
And if anyone is asking why we're still a lower-tier system, I'd say: look at other systems. We're excited about a guy like Duran because... he's who we have to be excited about it. And it's fun to follow such a guy, and maybe he'll turn out great! But he's not as high as the #4 prospect in most organizations. He'd be like #18 for the Rays...
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 26, 2021 10:05:44 GMT -5
I said he hadn’t moved guys.... this was not a criticism— beyond that we are in a bit of stasis. Don’t get me started on you-know-what, which was trading down in talent, however you want to slot returns. I am sure Mike Trout could get 3 50 FV-types. But for the rest... it takes time, of course. But a) the sense that a lot has happened comes with a caveat; and b) some have been asking why we are still a lower-tier system, and the answer is partly that adding guys to the bottom half of a top-20 in a system that is very bad doesn’t move you much relative to teams where those guys are not top 20 guys. It is not, however, a huge help that our first pick (yes, 2nd round) from 2019 is not even top-40, and our first pick from last year is behind a guy flying jets. This draft will be massively important. Well, I was mainly responding to JimmyM asking about whether it was a "concern" that the team wasn't adding blue chip talent.
But I basically agree with all this. I think Bloom has done a fine job of filling up the middle tier of prospects, and maybe one or two of those guys will pop into the elite tier this season. That would be nice! But losing that international signing money because of cheating, and losing the 2nd rounder in 2020 because of cheating, and picking late in '17/'18/'19 because of the team being good in previous seasons, and Dombrowski trading away the likes of Kopech and other young talent... it adds up.
And if anyone is asking why we're still a lower-tier system, I'd say: look at other systems. We're excited about a guy like Duran because... he's who we have to be excited about it. And it's fun to follow such a guy, and maybe he'll turn out great! But he's not as high as the #4 prospect in most organizations. He'd be like #18 for the Rays...
To be more clear - when I say “concern” I don’t mean concern in that Bloom is doing a bad job or not making a move that he should - he’s working with what he has and doing a good job with it. Just commenting on the fact that eventually it is necessary to accumulate some young, high impact guys beyond Verdugo and maybe Downs / Casas, regardless of whether or not in the current state of the team we have guys who can be traded for this type of asset. I think this also highlights the importance of the Mookie trade (sorry Manfred & others). Pre Mookie trade we have 0-1 high impact controllable talent guys (Casas). Post Mookie we have 1-3 (Verdugo, Downs, Casas). I’m using 4+ years of control as a basis, so not including Devers. Obviously you can have lower guys elevate themselves to this criteria, but for the sustainable contender Bloom always talked about you’d like to have a crop of guys *expected* to be in this tier along with the pleasant surprises you may get from the 3-30 spots in the farm that we’ve done an excellent job (from 8-30 at least) of building out.
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Post by manfred on Feb 26, 2021 10:16:00 GMT -5
Well, I was mainly responding to JimmyM asking about whether it was a "concern" that the team wasn't adding blue chip talent.
But I basically agree with all this. I think Bloom has done a fine job of filling up the middle tier of prospects, and maybe one or two of those guys will pop into the elite tier this season. That would be nice! But losing that international signing money because of cheating, and losing the 2nd rounder in 2020 because of cheating, and picking late in '17/'18/'19 because of the team being good in previous seasons, and Dombrowski trading away the likes of Kopech and other young talent... it adds up.
And if anyone is asking why we're still a lower-tier system, I'd say: look at other systems. We're excited about a guy like Duran because... he's who we have to be excited about it. And it's fun to follow such a guy, and maybe he'll turn out great! But he's not as high as the #4 prospect in most organizations. He'd be like #18 for the Rays...
To be more clear - when I say “concern” I don’t mean concern in that Bloom is doing a bad job or not making a move that he should - he’s working with what he has and doing a good job with it. Just commenting on the fact that eventually it is necessary to accumulate some young, high impact guys beyond Verdugo and maybe Downs / Casas, regardless of whether or not in the current state of the team we have guys who can be traded for this type of asset. I think this also highlights the importance of the Mookie trade (sorry Manfred & others). Pre Mookie trade we have 0-1 high impact controllable talent guys (Casas). Post Mookie we have 1-3 (Verdugo, Downs, Casas). I’m using 4+ years of control as a basis, so not including Devers. Obviously you can have lower guys elevate themselves to this criteria, but for the sustainable contender Bloom always talked about you’d like to have a crop of guys *expected* to be in this tier along with the pleasant surprises you may get from the 3-30 spots in the farm that we’ve done an excellent job (from 8-30 at least) of building out. I will restrain myself.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 26, 2021 10:38:15 GMT -5
Well, I was mainly responding to JimmyM asking about whether it was a "concern" that the team wasn't adding blue chip talent.
But I basically agree with all this. I think Bloom has done a fine job of filling up the middle tier of prospects, and maybe one or two of those guys will pop into the elite tier this season. That would be nice! But losing that international signing money because of cheating, and losing the 2nd rounder in 2020 because of cheating, and picking late in '17/'18/'19 because of the team being good in previous seasons, and Dombrowski trading away the likes of Kopech and other young talent... it adds up.
And if anyone is asking why we're still a lower-tier system, I'd say: look at other systems. We're excited about a guy like Duran because... he's who we have to be excited about it. And it's fun to follow such a guy, and maybe he'll turn out great! But he's not as high as the #4 prospect in most organizations. He'd be like #18 for the Rays...
To be more clear - when I say “concern” I don’t mean concern in that Bloom is doing a bad job or not making a move that he should - he’s working with what he has and doing a good job with it. Just commenting on the fact that eventually it is necessary to accumulate some young, high impact guys beyond Verdugo and maybe Downs / Casas, regardless of whether or not in the current state of the team we have guys who can be traded for this type of asset. I think this also highlights the importance of the Mookie trade (sorry Manfred & others). Pre Mookie trade we have 0-1 high impact controllable talent guys (Casas). Post Mookie we have 1-3 (Verdugo, Downs, Casas). I’m using 4+ years of control as a basis, so not including Devers. Obviously you can have lower guys elevate themselves to this criteria, but for the sustainable contender Bloom always talked about you’d like to have a crop of guys *expected* to be in this tier along with the pleasant surprises you may get from the 3-30 spots in the farm that we’ve done an excellent job (from 8-30 at least) of building out. Yep. I would much rather have signed Mookie long-term (at basically any price) than trade him, but imagine if they hadn't traded him and then he had walked - no Mookie, and no Verdugo or Downs either. It would just be tumbleweeds rolling through vast swathes of the Red Sox organization.
I certainly agree they need to get back in the top prospects game. They just haven't had the opportunities to get there yet. But it can happen pretty quickly. A farm system essentially turns over entirely every, what, 4 years or so? Things could look pretty different even by the end of this season.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 26, 2021 17:17:06 GMT -5
this thread has the potential to be the GOAT thread, by the time it is all said and done.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 26, 2021 19:38:35 GMT -5
I don't know if this exactly answers the question, but I am reserving large scale judgment of Bloom until at the very earliest after the next offseason, when the Red Sox will have had money to spend on franchise cornerstones to complement the increase in playable depth that he's built so far.
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Post by manfred on Feb 26, 2021 19:49:28 GMT -5
Don’t get me started.
I am going to have to mute this thread for my cardiac health.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 26, 2021 20:27:55 GMT -5
Don’t get me started. I am going to have to mute this thread for my cardiac health. Oh please don't. I think the hope is that this is now the dedicated thread for your Bloom musings.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Feb 26, 2021 21:12:29 GMT -5
I sleep well at night, knowing that Bloom is at the helm ...
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 26, 2021 23:22:05 GMT -5
To be more clear - when I say “concern” I don’t mean concern in that Bloom is doing a bad job or not making a move that he should - he’s working with what he has and doing a good job with it. Just commenting on the fact that eventually it is necessary to accumulate some young, high impact guys beyond Verdugo and maybe Downs / Casas, regardless of whether or not in the current state of the team we have guys who can be traded for this type of asset. I think this also highlights the importance of the Mookie trade (sorry Manfred & others). Pre Mookie trade we have 0-1 high impact controllable talent guys (Casas). Post Mookie we have 1-3 (Verdugo, Downs, Casas). I’m using 4+ years of control as a basis, so not including Devers. Obviously you can have lower guys elevate themselves to this criteria, but for the sustainable contender Bloom always talked about you’d like to have a crop of guys *expected* to be in this tier along with the pleasant surprises you may get from the 3-30 spots in the farm that we’ve done an excellent job (from 8-30 at least) of building out. Yep. I would much rather have signed Mookie long-term (at basically any price) than trade him, but imagine if they hadn't traded him and then he had walked - no Mookie, and no Verdugo or Downs either. It would just be tumbleweeds rolling through vast swathes of the Red Sox organization.
I certainly agree they need to get back in the top prospects game. They just haven't had the opportunities to get there yet. But it can happen pretty quickly. A farm system essentially turns over entirely every, what, 4 years or so? Things could look pretty different even by the end of this season.
Everyone wanted Mookie to stay, but Mookie was not interested in staying so Bloom got the best deal he could. Everyone loved Mookie and wanted him to sign an extension, and it would have been money well spent, but there are 29 other teams that have money to spend...
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 26, 2021 23:27:43 GMT -5
Yep. I would much rather have signed Mookie long-term (at basically any price) than trade him, but imagine if they hadn't traded him and then he had walked - no Mookie, and no Verdugo or Downs either. It would just be tumbleweeds rolling through vast swathes of the Red Sox organization.
I certainly agree they need to get back in the top prospects game. They just haven't had the opportunities to get there yet. But it can happen pretty quickly. A farm system essentially turns over entirely every, what, 4 years or so? Things could look pretty different even by the end of this season.
Everyone wanted Mookie to stay, but Mookie was not interested in staying so Bloom got the best deal he could. Everyone loved Mookie and wanted him to sign an extension, and it would have been money well spent, but there are 29 other teams that have money to spend... ....I wrote on several web sites a year before the trade that Mookie would sign with the Dodgers. I also said that JD would not opt out and that he would be with the Red Sox the whole five years. I still believe he will not opt out, but the Red Sox may trade him at the deadline this year if they do not have to kid in too much money presuming he does not opt out for 2022 which he will not. $19.35 million is a lot for a DH.
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 27, 2021 7:56:15 GMT -5
So much is made about DD trading away the farm system, which left the Sox in ruins. He brought three consecutive East titles, in addition to the possible greatest Red Sox team of all-time in 2018. It sure seems like he wanted success immediately after taking the helmet of an already good team, and instantly took the expectations for the Sox to a higher level by all the trades. In retrospective would you all want to have all the trades negated because then we would have had a very deep system, full of marginal prospects like Margot, Allen, Basabe, Guerra, Espinosa, and so on - and DD seemed to be guilty of being too quick to cave in his trade quests by his seeming over willingness to facilitate a trade he wanted by tossing in extra players to sweeten the deal. In hindsight though, isn't it quite possible that the Sox would have been the AL version of the Dodgers, who in spite of the top two or three farm systems in depth, quality, and constantly churning out new blue-chip prospects seemingly every six months or so. Yet the Dodgers were only able to win one WS, and I'm sorry, but the 2020 season IMO was not a true season, but rather a Covid related SNAFU, resulting in frustrating situations regarding player availability and game management because of the extremely short season -- it was an asterisk year. I would argue that they had a better team the year before. Much like Trout, Betts cannot guarantee a WS trophy for a team, but has won two trophies because he has been on great teams, and it could easily be said that if Trout had been on the same teams he probably would have four trophies by now (completely hypothetical as he plays a different position).
Anyways, I have not taken interest in the topic enough to do all the research homework to recall every move DD made, but aside from the Yoan/Kopech for Sale, and possibly the Kimbrel deal, and Thornburg deal, as the prospects given away in those deals were, and still are not 'elite talent' that it seems would have turned the Sox into a truly elite team throughout DD's tenure, and into 2019, 2020, and beyond, ie., much like the Dodgers are, and by not trading away the farm system so thoroughly and hastily the Sox would be in a better position now, including at least one WS winner (never mind that team being one of the greatest baseball teams of all-time, including the prowess of being able to relay in-game video replay of opposition signs and pitches ,which I guess fairly deserves an asterisk as well.
The only real thorn in the side of Sox fans that still prickles, and could possibly grow into a much bigger thorn, and that was the workings of DD, is the possibility that Kopech and/or Moncada bloom into all-stars that make Sale's contributions seem bittersweet. However one could argue that Kopech may only be destined for bullpen greatness, and Moncada and Benintendi may turn out to both be just flashes of fools-gold. Most likely the real long-term legacy of this trade will be whether Moncada ends up being DD's folly in trading him and holding onto Benintendi. Course the Benintendi trade recently, post DD makes it impossible to grade right now, although I would argue that Moncada v. Benintendi decision would be considered a wash at this point in time, and Kopech, Basabe, have nowhere near done enough to warrant DD forever being branded as the GM that gave the Devil the guts of the Sox's future in exchange for a measly few East titles and arguably the 2018 highlight reel GOAT, and now we can all rest easy cause Bloom is here to save the day. Yes Bloom is making a lot of good, witty moves, and quickly rebuilding the farm system, and although the consensus is it may not be full of talent, especially of the blue-chip type, but one season of York, Duran, Mata, Song becomes available perhaps, and all of a sudden its a top-five farm system again, and hopefully DD will be available again to be hired to make the ballsy decisions to trade away a bunch of marginal prospects, a long with a couple of blue-chippers to make the Sox the team to beat again. Then he can be fired again and another Friedman protege can be hired to work their magic in building a world-class farm system to give us all offseason excitement, compared to the playoffs excitement that DD seemed to be a master of creating......
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 27, 2021 8:38:04 GMT -5
this thread has the potential to be the GOAT thread, by the time it is all said and done. We can certainly hope!!! History shows that some of these mid tier prospects will become valuable assets as they mature, just like some top tier guys will fade away into obscurity. I still have high hopes for guys like Groome, Ward and Dalbech, who could all surpass their current projected ceilings. All it takes for many of these guys is realizing something new with mechanics, like all of a sudden finding something in a golf swing that changes everything and your handicap improves by 10 strokes. Houk and his slider last year, imagine if he can maintain that pitch for the rest of his career. It could be control or seeing pitches better or developing a change up and bang your a star, it happens and if your middle is strong it happens more often. The real question for me is how the heck have the Sox been unable to develop a very good pitcher since Bucholtz? That is a mystery to me, I mean talk about bad luck. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes right?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Feb 27, 2021 9:18:03 GMT -5
this thread has the potential to be the GOAT thread, by the time it is all said and done. We can certainly hope!!! History shows that some of these mid tier prospects will become valuable assets as they mature, just like some top tier guys will fade away into obscurity. I still have high hopes for guys like Groome, Ward and Dalbech, who could all surpass their current projected ceilings. All it takes for many of these guys is realizing something new with mechanics, like all of a sudden finding something in a golf swing that changes everything and your handicap improves by 10 strokes. Houk and his slider last year, imagine if he can maintain that pitch for the rest of his career. It could be control or seeing pitches better or developing a change up and bang your a star, it happens and if your middle is strong it happens more often. The real question for me is how the heck have the Sox been unable to develop a very good pitcher since Bucholtz? That is a mystery to me, I mean talk about bad luck. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes right? Mainly, because we draft junkballers high. Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, Trey Ball. Lefties who threw 90. Didn’t draft projectable power arms except Kopech. That worked out because we used him to get Sale
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 27, 2021 10:18:00 GMT -5
I sleep well at night, knowing that Bloom is at the helm ... Funny stuff. Epstein and Dombrowski were popular as well, only Duquette wasn't and reason he didn't have the "love" of the faithful was didn't smile a lot and wasn't with the articulate answers the media expected. In short.. He was Lou Gorman, without the smiles, a GM whom everyone liked, yet made brutal trades, FA signs etc.. Something Duquette wasn't known for. Half of the job of being the GM is smiling for the camera. Bloom learns to do that in Boston and which end to kiss and he'll be fine.
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2021 10:38:17 GMT -5
The discussion about pitching development sent me back to our last ten years of drafting.
What is interesting to me is that for the raft of s—t DD gets about tearing down the system, the credit for the strongest points of our current system should go to him. There were 1st rounders in Casas, Houck, and Groome that are still some of our highest upsides. But then he also drafted Dalbec in the 4th, Duran in the 7th, Ward in the 5th...
If we look at most the best *starting* prospects in the system, they are DD picks. And some of them were not obvious guys (Groome was obvious and ironically appears to be risking Ball 2.0 status). Just imagine if a Politi (15th) or a Cutter Crawford (16th) hits! Or Howlett (21st) develops?
What is even clearer is that if you look at at the 2016-2018 drafts... then drop back to the Cherington years... the improvement is stark. Ben was not maximizing picks after the first round. And *that* may be what really got us here. 2013-2015 were bleak years, and so DD arrives ready to sell but with only a top-tier to skim, and so he sells huge... but really, if that earlier stretch hadn’t been so terrible, there should have been more left over.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 27, 2021 10:49:50 GMT -5
I sleep well at night, knowing that Bloom is at the helm ... Funny stuff. Epstein and Dombrowski were popular as well, only Duquette wasn't and reason he didn't have the "love" of the faithful was didn't smile a lot and wasn't with the articulate answers the media expected. In short.. He was Lou Gorman, without the smiles, a GM whom everyone liked, yet made brutal trades, FA signs etc.. Something Duquette wasn't known for. Half of the job of being the GM is smiling for the camera. Bloom learns to do that in Boston and which end to kiss and he'll be fine. I don't think these guys are really judged in the same way as when the gatekeepers were like 5 cigar-chomping good old boys at the Globe and Herald who judged players based on batting average and pitcher wins. In any event, Bloom, Cherington, Epstein... they're all the same person: elite college-educated, well-versed in the communicative mores of the professional/managerial class. I don't think the PR will be a problem for him.
The judgment will ultimately be based on the on-field performance. As far as that goes, I hope and expect he'll have a very long leash. It's kind of amazing the challenges he walked into when he took the job:
-had to trade the team's generational star -had to get under the CBT while being saddled with a bunch of dead money -depleted farm system -covid
And whatever anyone thinks of the team's off-season moves, they're clearly not tanking, a la the Cubs and Astros last decade (or the Orioles in perpetuity). So he's trying to build up the farm system while also fielding a competitive team every year. It's a high-wire act, and I hope the owners are patient if a season or two doesn't go as hoped. Personally, I think the rubber will hit the road in the 2022-23 off-season. Between dead money coming off the books and contracts expiring, the 2023 roster will really be his creation, through whatever combination of extensions and FA signings he decides to go with.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 27, 2021 10:59:13 GMT -5
The discussion about pitching development sent me back to our last ten years of drafting. What is interesting to me is that for the raft of s—t DD gets about tearing down the system, the credit for the strongest points of our current system should go to him. There were 1st rounders in Casas, Houck, and Groome that are still some of our highest upsides. But then he also drafted Dalbec in the 4th, Duran in the 7th, Ward in the 5th... If we look at most the best *starting* prospects in the system, they are DD picks. And some of them were not obvious guys (Groome was obvious and ironically appears to be risking Ball 2.0 status). Just imagine if a Politi (15th) or a Cutter Crawford (16th) hits! Or Howlett (21st) develops? What is even clearer is that if you look at at the 2016-2018 drafts... then drop back to the Cherington years... the improvement is stark. Ben was not maximizing picks after the first round. And *that* may be what really got us here. 2013-2015 were bleak years, and so DD arrives ready to sell but with only a top-tier to skim, and so he sells huge... but really, if that earlier stretch hadn’t been so terrible, there should have been more left over. There's something to this, but it's also sort of inevitable that, here in 2021, the farm system would be dominated by guys who were picked between 2016 and 2019 when DD was in charge. So that kind of returns us to the question of: how strong is the farm system overall? Which I would answer: not great, Bob!
That 2017 draft, in particular, is really counting on Houck to prevent a total whiff. And it's still early for judging 2019, I suppose, but it doesn't look super promising...
ADD: Now you've got me looking back through it, and boy what an epic squander that 2013 draft was, despite the high draft position.
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2021 11:01:57 GMT -5
Funny stuff. Epstein and Dombrowski were popular as well, only Duquette wasn't and reason he didn't have the "love" of the faithful was didn't smile a lot and wasn't with the articulate answers the media expected. In short.. He was Lou Gorman, without the smiles, a GM whom everyone liked, yet made brutal trades, FA signs etc.. Something Duquette wasn't known for. Half of the job of being the GM is smiling for the camera. Bloom learns to do that in Boston and which end to kiss and he'll be fine. I don't think these guys are really judged in the same way as when the gatekeepers were like 5 cigar-chomping good old boys at the Globe and Herald who judged players based on batting average and pitcher wins. In any event, Bloom, Cherington, Epstein... they're all the same person: elite college-educated, well-versed in the communicative mores of the professional/managerial class. I don't think the PR will be a problem for him.
The judgment will ultimately be based on the on-field performance. As far as that goes, I hope and expect he'll have a very long leash. It's kind of amazing the challenges he walked into when he took the job:
-had to trade the team's generational star -had to get under the CBT while being saddled with a bunch of dead money -depleted farm system -covid
And whatever anyone thinks of the team's off-season moves, they're clearly not tanking, a la the Cubs and Astros last decade (or the Orioles in perpetuity). So he's trying to build up the farm system while also fielding a competitive team every year. It's a high-wire act, and I hope the owners are patient if a season or two doesn't go as hoped. Personally, I think the rubber will hit the road in the 2022-23 off-season. Between dead money coming off the books and contracts expiring, the 2023 roster will really be his creation, through whatever combination of extensions and FA signings he decides to go with.
I advocating tanking like the Astros before last year. They should have. They sucked anyway. If they’d utterly tanked last year and this, they’d be just as able to come out strong in 2023. I’d have stripped this team down to X and Devers, basically — trade Eovaldi, CVaz, JDM... at least. (Ironically, now, I’d have jept Beni and JBJ). That was before last year, before Covid. They’d get some return for those guys, maybe not huge, but some, with the added bonus of being really bad this year instead of ok. Then have top-3 picks 2 years in a row, etc etc. This is my concern with this coming season. Being *meh* doesn’t add any value going forward. And the guys I’d trade will be moving out of their primes by the time this team is deadly serious.
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2021 11:08:07 GMT -5
The discussion about pitching development sent me back to our last ten years of drafting. What is interesting to me is that for the raft of s—t DD gets about tearing down the system, the credit for the strongest points of our current system should go to him. There were 1st rounders in Casas, Houck, and Groome that are still some of our highest upsides. But then he also drafted Dalbec in the 4th, Duran in the 7th, Ward in the 5th... If we look at most the best *starting* prospects in the system, they are DD picks. And some of them were not obvious guys (Groome was obvious and ironically appears to be risking Ball 2.0 status). Just imagine if a Politi (15th) or a Cutter Crawford (16th) hits! Or Howlett (21st) develops? What is even clearer is that if you look at at the 2016-2018 drafts... then drop back to the Cherington years... the improvement is stark. Ben was not maximizing picks after the first round. And *that* may be what really got us here. 2013-2015 were bleak years, and so DD arrives ready to sell but with only a top-tier to skim, and so he sells huge... but really, if that earlier stretch hadn’t been so terrible, there should have been more left over. There's something to this, but it's also sort of inevitable that, here in 2021, the farm system would be dominated by guys who were picked between 2016 and 2019 when DD was in charge. So that kind of returns us to the question of: how strong is the farm system overall? Which I would answer: not great, Bob!
That 2017 draft, in particular, is really counting on Houck to prevent a total whiff.
That is fair, but Kopech, as an example, one of BC’s few hits, is not yet 25. So the 2014/2015 — even 2013 — drafts should still feature in the quality of the system. It is hard to argue any recent draft was a bigger debacle than 2013. 2014 was rough after the first round, with the exception of Beeks. I mean in both cases we’re talking about guys who were never even serious. McAvoy? Mars? Teddy Stankiewicz? Brutal. 2018 is looking like one of the best drafts we’ve had in a decade, on the other hand.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 27, 2021 11:12:33 GMT -5
I don't think these guys are really judged in the same way as when the gatekeepers were like 5 cigar-chomping good old boys at the Globe and Herald who judged players based on batting average and pitcher wins. In any event, Bloom, Cherington, Epstein... they're all the same person: elite college-educated, well-versed in the communicative mores of the professional/managerial class. I don't think the PR will be a problem for him.
The judgment will ultimately be based on the on-field performance. As far as that goes, I hope and expect he'll have a very long leash. It's kind of amazing the challenges he walked into when he took the job:
-had to trade the team's generational star -had to get under the CBT while being saddled with a bunch of dead money -depleted farm system -covid
And whatever anyone thinks of the team's off-season moves, they're clearly not tanking, a la the Cubs and Astros last decade (or the Orioles in perpetuity). So he's trying to build up the farm system while also fielding a competitive team every year. It's a high-wire act, and I hope the owners are patient if a season or two doesn't go as hoped. Personally, I think the rubber will hit the road in the 2022-23 off-season. Between dead money coming off the books and contracts expiring, the 2023 roster will really be his creation, through whatever combination of extensions and FA signings he decides to go with.
I advocating tanking like the Astros before last year. They should have. They sucked anyway. If they’d utterly tanked last year and this, they’d be just as able to come out strong in 2023. I’d have stripped this team down to X and Devers, basically — trade Eovaldi, CVaz, JDM... at least. (Ironically, now, I’d have jept Beni and JBJ). That was before last year, before Covid. They’d get some return for those guys, maybe not huge, but some, with the added bonus of being really bad this year instead of ok. Then have top-3 picks 2 years in a row, etc etc. This is my concern with this coming season. Being *meh* doesn’t add any value going forward. And the guys I’d trade will be moving out of their primes by the time this team is deadly serious. This would have made them worse in 2021 and 2022, and for Eovaldi, CVaz, and JDM I don't think they could have gotten one elite prospect. They could've bulked out that 45 FV stash a fair bit, but for all that they could've added the farm system would still be below average. That hardly would've been worth tanking for 2020-2022.
I'm so confused by how you see this team. You don't want them to be "meh," but you projected them for 86 wins, which makes them obviously competitive for a wild card spot. Are you really not satisfied to watch a team like that? You want to go all in on building a 100-game winner, even though there's no guarantee that strategy would even work, and even if you have to wait through several seasons of miserable failure to get there?
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