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Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 27, 2021 22:24:28 GMT -5
That's why players get TJ surgery. I don't get your averages, when he was injured during those five years. Only one year wasn't his elbow and many have speculated the bicep injury was because of his elbow, trying to find a different way to pitch around it. It was in that article I posted awhile back. Wouldn't his history with a good elbow be more relevant? 2016, he had an elbow injury. He chose platelet rich injection, not TJ. Now... in 2017, he had a biceps issue — a nerve issue, unrelated to the elbow. At that time, they checked... and he passed the MRI. Structurally sound. The injection the previous year seems to have worked. 2018... TJ surgery. So that is actually at least two *separate* elbow injuries. And the bicep, which did not appear to be the result of the elbow in 2017. Maybe it was a sign of things to come. 2019... shoulder issues delay his return (a return, mind you, that is terrible in 3 games). So it is actually *four* injuries. And yes, his history with a good elbow is relevant. He was good in 2014 and 2015, the last full seasons with a fully functioning arm. So you think that his elbow was 100% and he tears it twice? Not that it was never right and he just reinjures it? Tears heal, it's all about how they heal, as in like new or ticking time bomb. So you don't think one injury can cause others? Go look at Kevin Durant, it's rather common. Remember I didn't link these together out of thin air, an informed person said that. That's the way a lot of teams/people were looking at it. So let's stop acting like it's crazy. Maybe there wrong, yet you have less information than they did. What exactly are you going off to say there wrong? Most importantly our GM clearly doesn't agree with your takes or he doesn't pay him $10 million. The biggest contract he gave to anyone.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 27, 2021 22:30:48 GMT -5
The knee was 2014 when he made 26 starts, the shoulder was nothing, just sore coming back from TJ, he missed almost no time with that. See comment above about the bicep. Your five years are injured his Elbow doesn't get TJ misses year, injuries his Bicep trying to come back without TJ misses year, then next year comes back elbow still isn't right, finally getting TJ misses most of 2018/2019. Comes back late 2019 and has been fully healthy since. Every pitcher has huge risks, yet he's got a new Elbow. 2020 was the first full year since 2015 and you know what? He didn't have any major injuries. Just imagine if we get anything close to the 2014/2015 Richards. You cannot brush off the elbow as one long injury. It simply wasn’t. It was multiple injuries. Listen, I agree... if they get 33-year old Garrett Richards to pitch like 27-year old Garrett Richards after multiple lost years and multiple arm issues, it will be a huge bonus. Is it worth $10 million to test it out? Well.... there do seem to be guys who have similar upsides going for less. But it isn’t my money. Now... is it a *massive* gamble? I’d say so. Does JA Happ at $8.5 million seem safer? Seems safer. If Richards has a strong season, I’ll tip my cap to Gamblin’ Chaim. But if Richards ends up clogging up the IL, I think it is fair to say tgat it was pretty predictable. It's that one injury and issue was the cause of all of it, again that's what at minimum some people thought looking at it and it makes perfect sense. Durant compensates coming off an ACL injury, hurries back and blows out his achilles. Yeah two injuries, yet Durant himself says rushing back from the ACL was the reason for his achilles injury.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2021 22:34:14 GMT -5
2016, he had an elbow injury. He chose platelet rich injection, not TJ. Now... in 2017, he had a biceps issue — a nerve issue, unrelated to the elbow. At that time, they checked... and he passed the MRI. Structurally sound. The injection the previous year seems to have worked. 2018... TJ surgery. So that is actually at least two *separate* elbow injuries. And the bicep, which did not appear to be the result of the elbow in 2017. Maybe it was a sign of things to come. 2019... shoulder issues delay his return (a return, mind you, that is terrible in 3 games). So it is actually *four* injuries. And yes, his history with a good elbow is relevant. He was good in 2014 and 2015, the last full seasons with a fully functioning arm. So you think that his elbow was 100% and he tears it twice? Not that it was never right and he just reinjures it? Tears heal, it's all about how they heal, as in like new or ticking time bomb. So you don't think one injury can cause others? Go look at Kevin Durant, it's rather common. Remember I didn't link these together out of thin air, an informed person said that. That's the way a lot of teams/people were looking at it. So let's stop acting like it's crazy. Maybe there wrong, yet you have less information than they did. What exactly are you going off to say there wrong? Most importantly our GM clearly doesn't agree with your takes or he doesn't pay him $10 million. The biggest contract he gave to anyone. Go back and read the coverage of his biceps injury. He was tested. He was structurally sound. He said his elbow was fine. etc etc. Yeah, it is possible it was one long injury... except after he had the injection, he returned, was pain free and pitched well. And then he got hurt again. If you have a torn UCL, you don’t have good streaks and bad streaks. It is constant pain and instability. The info I’m going is.... what the Angels doctors were saying. Do you think they lied about his MRI? Misread it? Here’s the flip side. Guys who have elbow problems often have them repeatedly. If you have funk, the stress will always be there. Nathan Eovaldi, another max effort guy, has had TJ twice. Was the second time just a continuation of the first?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 27, 2021 22:37:38 GMT -5
The Astro's tank job started in 2011, they didn't get more than 90 wins till 2017. That's what a full teardown looks like, it doesn't happen in two years. You'd have Bogaerts, Dever's and ERod looking to find new teams. Yeah I much prefer a mini rebuild over a tear it down and start over campaign. I also don't get how platooning equals complicated, thus more issues. It actually creates more flexibility, thus making things easier if an injury happens or players just have horrible years. Great depth and flexibility take away a lot of issues. Nevermind fixing the issues is a lot easier. Like finding a guy that plays the OF and hits RHP versus having to get an everyday player who plays the OF. This isn't a new concept and it's really worked well for many clubs for years.
When it comes to doing better than expected wins, guys like Eovaldi and Richards are exactly the types that can change that. Guy's that have had better seasons than they are projected to. Plus the availability of guys in the minors to help and potential upgrade the team. The depth a team has to withstand injuries and down years. Our system might be a little short on high end guys, yet we have depth that's just about ready at so many positions in a way I haven't seen in a long time. That can be the difference between being okay and rather good. Platoons are fine....in small measure. Look at the last 20 World Series winners. They aren't clubs who rely heavily on platoons. Not to mention that you risk marketing revenue losses. Who comes to game and / or buys jerseys of platoon guys. Alot of folks here know better than i do, and increasing the depth is great (for reasons you mentioned). But, getting back to the thread premise, if Bloom thinks he is going to win either the World Series or the market fandom, by over relying on platoons.....i can safely say he is going to fail, in one or both of those metrics. Those roster types are for small market teams with lack of financial muscle. The Sox, at some point in the future, need to flex that competitive advantage. Both the Dodgers and Rays used platoons. We were doing that in 2018, so were the Dodgers during that World Series. It's common practice.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 27, 2021 22:47:24 GMT -5
So you think that his elbow was 100% and he tears it twice? Not that it was never right and he just reinjures it? Tears heal, it's all about how they heal, as in like new or ticking time bomb. So you don't think one injury can cause others? Go look at Kevin Durant, it's rather common. Remember I didn't link these together out of thin air, an informed person said that. That's the way a lot of teams/people were looking at it. So let's stop acting like it's crazy. Maybe there wrong, yet you have less information than they did. What exactly are you going off to say there wrong? Most importantly our GM clearly doesn't agree with your takes or he doesn't pay him $10 million. The biggest contract he gave to anyone. Go back and read the coverage of his biceps injury. He was tested. He was structurally sound. He said his elbow was fine. etc etc. Yeah, it is possible it was one long injury... except after he had the injection, he returned, was pain free and pitched well. And then he got hurt again. If you have a torn UCL, you don’t have good streaks and bad streaks. It is constant pain and instability. The info I’m going is.... what the Angels doctors were saying. Do you think they lied about his MRI? Misread it? Here’s the flip side. Guys who have elbow problems often have them repeatedly. If you have funk, the stress will always be there. Nathan Eovaldi, another max effort guy, has had TJ twice. Was the second time just a continuation of the first? Every pitcher that gives his UCL time to heal will get a healed UCL. It's how it heals, like good to go almost 100% or a ticking time bomb. People have TJ surgery so they are good as new, so they won't keep tearing it. The majority of pitchers go straight for TJ surgery for this very reason, yet there are also many factors like how bad the tear was. You get what TG surgery is right? Versus what Richards did? If you do then that's an easy answer with Eovaldi.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2021 22:48:41 GMT -5
Platoons are fine....in small measure. Look at the last 20 World Series winners. They aren't clubs who rely heavily on platoons. Not to mention that you risk marketing revenue losses. Who comes to game and / or buys jerseys of platoon guys. Alot of folks here know better than i do, and increasing the depth is great (for reasons you mentioned). But, getting back to the thread premise, if Bloom thinks he is going to win either the World Series or the market fandom, by over relying on platoons.....i can safely say he is going to fail, in one or both of those metrics. Those roster types are for small market teams with lack of financial muscle. The Sox, at some point in the future, need to flex that competitive advantage. Both the Dodgers and Rays used platoons. We were doing that in 2018, so were the Dodgers during that World Series. It's common practice. We used secondary platoons in 2018. But we had stars in many positions. There is nothing wrong with having a platoon at, say, 1b when you have the MVP in RF, a stud at SS, 3B, and DH etc. Having platoons at multiple positions AND being weaker at some of those positions... not the same thing. I’m not saying it is an absolute. I am saying it makes you vulnerable in a way having full guys doesn’t. I mean... consider a team like the Rays throwing lefty/righty/lefty/righty with Renfroe. If you have guys with ugly splits and a starter tends to go 7? You can plan to have that guy play to his strength. But now you can start that guy and — if Renfroe bats 7th — by the time he bats, there could be a righty in. Then what? Take him out in the 2nd? Or send out the .216/.268/.449 guy against righties?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2021 22:49:23 GMT -5
Go back and read the coverage of his biceps injury. He was tested. He was structurally sound. He said his elbow was fine. etc etc. Yeah, it is possible it was one long injury... except after he had the injection, he returned, was pain free and pitched well. And then he got hurt again. If you have a torn UCL, you don’t have good streaks and bad streaks. It is constant pain and instability. The info I’m going is.... what the Angels doctors were saying. Do you think they lied about his MRI? Misread it? Here’s the flip side. Guys who have elbow problems often have them repeatedly. If you have funk, the stress will always be there. Nathan Eovaldi, another max effort guy, has had TJ twice. Was the second time just a continuation of the first? Every pitcher that gives his UCL time to heal will get a healed UCL. It's how it heals, like good to go almost 100% or a ticking time bomb. People have TJ surgery so they are good as new, so they won't keep tearing it. The majority of pitchers go straight for TJ surgery for this very reason, yet there are also many factors like how bad the tear was. You get what TG surgery is right? Versus what Richards did? If you do then that's an easy answer with Eovaldi. I had TJ surgery. Yeah, I get it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 27, 2021 23:33:22 GMT -5
Both the Dodgers and Rays used platoons. We were doing that in 2018, so were the Dodgers during that World Series. It's common practice. We used secondary platoons in 2018. But we had stars in many positions. There is nothing wrong with having a platoon at, say, 1b when you have the MVP in RF, a stud at SS, 3B, and DH etc. Having platoons at multiple positions AND being weaker at some of those positions... not the same thing. I’m not saying it is an absolute. I am saying it makes you vulnerable in a way having full guys doesn’t. I mean... consider a team like the Rays throwing lefty/righty/lefty/righty with Renfroe. If you have guys with ugly splits and a starter tends to go 7? You can plan to have that guy play to his strength. But now you can start that guy and — if Renfroe bats 7th — by the time he bats, there could be a righty in. Then what? Take him out in the 2nd? Or send out the .216/.268/.449 guy against righties? There it is, no Betts so nothing will work and they suck, go look the platoons they did, it wasn't just 1B. We still have SS, 3B, and DH. Vazquez is a lot better, 2B is likely better, yet we don't need to be 2018 the superteam. It's just funny the superteam you love did a ton of what you seem to hate. So what would we do with a guy that hits .717 OPS against RHP? I think we'll be fine against the one team that might actually do that.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 27, 2021 23:34:13 GMT -5
Platoons are fine....in small measure. Look at the last 20 World Series winners. They aren't clubs who rely heavily on platoons. Not to mention that you risk marketing revenue losses. Who comes to game and / or buys jerseys of platoon guys. Alot of folks here know better than i do, and increasing the depth is great (for reasons you mentioned). But, getting back to the thread premise, if Bloom thinks he is going to win either the World Series or the market fandom, by over relying on platoons.....i can safely say he is going to fail, in one or both of those metrics. Those roster types are for small market teams with lack of financial muscle. The Sox, at some point in the future, need to flex that competitive advantage. Totally agree. The issue of *product* is one we haven’t discussed enough. People can mock me for holding Mookie against Bloom, but I doubt I’m alone. When you combine that with saying our new outfield is a mix of semi-anonymous part-times, it doesn’t make me want to shell out $100+ for my mlb app. I have a few general points and I’m Not trying to start a fight of anything but - 1- I think it’s safe to say Mookies interest in signing with the RedSox wasnt 100%. No reason to speculate the reasons. 2- a $210 M$ payrole team dosnt need to do a complete tear down 3- we as Sox fans grossly overate are own players. 4- can’t miss 55 plus level prospects are hard to find. 5- 40 level prospects almost never amount to anything. DD won us 2018. Probably over built the team. But the Sox won. It cost is 2019 and 2020. As for this year I’m more optimistic than most. Time will tell,, but it does get old people dogging the moves of the FO and being down on the new players. We have to trust that Henry Bloom and Cora don’t have any interest in being poor for long.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 27, 2021 23:35:06 GMT -5
Every pitcher that gives his UCL time to heal will get a healed UCL. It's how it heals, like good to go almost 100% or a ticking time bomb. People have TJ surgery so they are good as new, so they won't keep tearing it. The majority of pitchers go straight for TJ surgery for this very reason, yet there are also many factors like how bad the tear was. You get what TG surgery is right? Versus what Richards did? If you do then that's an easy answer with Eovaldi. I had TJ surgery. Yeah, I get it. So you're just trolling then?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2021 23:50:00 GMT -5
I had TJ surgery. Yeah, I get it. So you're just trolling then? No. He has had multiple elbow injuries. You get a clean MRI, you are clean. So might it not just as easily be the stress that caused the first injury caused it again? Look at his 6 starts in 2017. That is not a guy with a blown elbow. Especially the career-low walk rate. When you have a blown elbow, it is harder to do anything, including throw strikes. And there *are* guys who are more likely to have it. I was warned from sophomore year of high school I dragged. It was inevitable. And so we have a guy like Eovaldi. You think the *two* TJs mean he is less likely to reinjure? No way. Happens twice, there is a reason. Mechanics, stress, just throwing too damn hard. That is not to say it’ll happen. It is just that it is not an inoculation, and if there are underlying reasons you blew, then the clock starts again when you throw your first pitch of rehab.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 28, 2021 0:03:03 GMT -5
So you're just trolling then? No. He has had multiple elbow injuries. You get a clean MRI, you are clean. So might it not just as easily be the stress that caused the first injury caused it again? Look at his 6 starts in 2017. That is not a guy with a blown elbow. Especially the career-low walk rate. When you have a blown elbow, it is harder to do anything, including throw strikes. And there *are* guys who are more likely to have it. I was warned from sophomore year of high school I dragged. It was inevitable. And so we have a guy like Eovaldi. You think the *two* TJs mean he is less likely to reinjure? No way. Happens twice, there is a reason. Mechanics, stress, just throwing too damn hard. That is not to say it’ll happen. It is just that it is not an inoculation, and if there are underlying reasons you blew, then the clock starts again when you throw your first pitch of rehab. I can’t disagree more, about Richards elbow. Those years of right arm injuries were almost certainly related. First off a clean MRI means nothing. Do you know what an MRI is?? A doctor makes an interpretation based on a picture. My wife had cancer. Got 3 completely different answers on the same MRI. Medicine for the most part and especially parts like ligaments are not black and white. Plus once you have TJ surgery it’s not like your ligament is back to normal just like that. It’s literally 13-15 months of rehab. How this rehabilitation goes directly affects the result and strength that you have. All of this dosnt even take the whole mental state into account. Scared to throw hard, changing arm slot, being rusty, just the general fear of it happening again. This can cause all kinds of issues. It takes all people different amounts of time to get past a major surgical procedure like TJ. Some real fast amd back to normal, some have to relearn and se never recover. One thing I know is the farther away from TJ you can get without an issue the better. Richards seemed good last year. Hopefully that is a sign. Then again nobody can argue that once you have elbow issues the odds are against you.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 28, 2021 0:03:06 GMT -5
This would have made them worse in 2021 and 2022, and for Eovaldi, CVaz, and JDM I don't think they could have gotten one elite prospect. They could've bulked out that 45 FV stash a fair bit, but for all that they could've added the farm system would still be below average. That hardly would've been worth tanking for 2020-2022.
I'm so confused by how you see this team. You don't want them to be "meh," but you projected them for 86 wins, which makes them obviously competitive for a wild card spot. Are you really not satisfied to watch a team like that? You want to go all in on building a 100-game winner, even though there's no guarantee that strategy would even work, and even if you have to wait through several seasons of miserable failure to get there?
86 wins is the definition of *meh*. You are flirting with .500. No, that is not especially interesting to me. That is usually a team beating the teams beneath it, losing to the teams above it. A season of sweeping the Orioles then losing 2/3 to the Twins and White Sox is frustrating. But if they are just... there.... in July, then do they trade pieces away? Likely no. So what do you get for Richards? Nothing that will help in a year or two. Do you get good draft position? Not especially. So it becomes a lost season... guys just one year older, or young guys one year closer to hard decisions. Stasis. And I said trading the Eovaldis wouldn’t yield much. The biggest advantages would be a) getting rid of guys like him, CVaz, and JDM before they get old and are worth even less; and b) sucking this year — getting a second consecutive high pick instead of a mid-round pick. I still don't understand the complaining if you think they're an 86 win team after the drek they were last year. You act like there's no variance at all of what an 86 win team looks like. A team with 86 win talent, if you're correct, has a reasonable chance of actually winning 90 games, which means they're probably grabbing a wild card spot. You can't tell me there's no level of variance. If you see an 86 win team they have the possibility of any range of say 79 to 93 wins based on luck alone. I mean I look at the Red Sox and if I squint one way I can actually see a 90 win team. They'll need stuff to happen like Cordero and Dalbec hitting well in the bottom 3rd of the order and they'll need a bounce back year by JDM. They would need Richards to pitch well, at least in the first half, as they're more likely to have reinforcements on the way as you can imagine that one or two among Chris Sale, Houck, Seabold, or Mata can step in and start as the season wears on and positively impact the team. E-Rod would have to pitch well. The bullpen would need to settle the closer issue, with perhaps Sawamura being their best hope. Those things happen and they can win 90 and make the playoffs. Squint the other way and I can see the team disappointing and falling apart and maybe even losing 90. I'm picking 79 as the middle ground in my expectations, although I am starting to feel weirdly optimistic that they could be better than that. Considering that the team hasn't been good for two years (in 2019 they were not a good team either), winning 85 games or so would be an accomplishment, especially without their future core really in place, as I would anticipate Casas, Downs, Jimenez, and Duran (or at least 3 of them) being a part of the next Red Sox core to go along with Devers, Verdugo, and X (hopefully), or their younger pitchers not established. But the thing is you're going to hold every Red Sox team to the 2018 standard, and you will always come away disappointed. Hell, even if you truly looked at the 2018 team, you'd see Mookie, JDM, Betts, and a lot of flaws thereafter. Benintendi was really good for the first half. JBJ was productive in the 2nd half. Devers really wasn't that good, at least until the end of the season. 2b was a messy Holt/Nunez/Kinsler platoon. None of their 3 catchers hit. 1b was a platoon. The bullpen lacked middle relief pitching most of the year and their closer struggled mightily in the playoffs. So even the 2018 team had holes in it, but they just happened to have just about virtually everything break right for them, to a degree I've never seen before and probably never will again. The 2019 team was virtually the same team as the 2018 team and they were 24 games worse. They missed the playoffs and that team had Mookie Betts on it. To me, this team could be what the 1984 Red Sox represented to me, a stepping stone to better days. That team won 86 games and was never in the race, but they started to bring in some core guys who could be part of a championship team. I think we'll see Casas knocking on the door soon. Downs has an outside chance of coming up later this year. Duran should be part of this team at some point and Jimenez could really elevate his stock this year. We might see some actual pitching help come from down on the farm. So even if the Sox don't win the Series this year, this could be a year of progress for them, a team on the way up again, hopefully to greatness (no, they won't win 108 again) that can be sustained year-after-year the way Theo had it working when he was here.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 28, 2021 0:03:55 GMT -5
So you're just trolling then? No. He has had multiple elbow injuries. You get a clean MRI, you are clean. So might it not just as easily be the stress that caused the first injury caused it again? Look at his 6 starts in 2017. That is not a guy with a blown elbow. Especially the career-low walk rate. When you have a blown elbow, it is harder to do anything, including throw strikes. And there *are* guys who are more likely to have it. I was warned from sophomore year of high school I dragged. It was inevitable. And so we have a guy like Eovaldi. You think the *two* TJs mean he is less likely to reinjure? No way. Happens twice, there is a reason. Mechanics, stress, just throwing too damn hard. That is not to say it’ll happen. It is just that it is not an inoculation, and if there are underlying reasons you blew, then the clock starts again when you throw your first pitch of rehab. Why did you have TJ if just letting it heal makes you 100%? Why did Richards get it after not getting it the first time? He threw what 25 innings on that 100% elbow over two years, then has the same issues after 75 innings? Oh course you can tear it again even after it's new and absolutely some guys are more prone then others. How long is the list of pitchers that get TJ every 100 innings over two years? Eovaldi went 9 years between surgeries.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 28, 2021 0:04:24 GMT -5
So you're just trolling then? No. He has had multiple elbow injuries. You get a clean MRI, you are clean. So might it not just as easily be the stress that caused the first injury caused it again? Look at his 6 starts in 2017. That is not a guy with a blown elbow. Especially the career-low walk rate. When you have a blown elbow, it is harder to do anything, including throw strikes. And there *are* guys who are more likely to have it. I was warned from sophomore year of high school I dragged. It was inevitable. And so we have a guy like Eovaldi. You think the *two* TJs mean he is less likely to reinjure? No way. Happens twice, there is a reason. Mechanics, stress, just throwing too damn hard. That is not to say it’ll happen. It is just that it is not an inoculation, and if there are underlying reasons you blew, then the clock starts again when you throw your first pitch of rehab. I can’t disagree more, about Richards elbow. Those years of right arm injuries were almost certainly related. First off a clean MRI means nothing. Do you know what an MRI is?? A doctor makes an interpretation based on a picture. My wife had cancer. Got 3 completely different answers on the same MRI. Medicine for the most part and especially parts like ligaments are not black and white. Plus once you have TJ surgery it’s not like your ligament is back to normal just like that. It’s literally 13-15 months of rehab. How this rehabilitation goes directly affects the result and strength that you have. All of this dosnt even take the whole mental state into account. Scared to throw hard, changing arm slot, being rusty, just the general fear of it happening again. This can cause all kinds of issues. It takes all people different amounts of time to get past a major surgical procedure like TJ. Some real fast and back to normal, some have to relearn and some never recover. One thing I know is the farther away from TJ you can get without an issue the better. Richards seemed good last year. Hopefully that is a sign. Then again nobody can argue that once you have elbow issues the odds are against you.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 0:04:58 GMT -5
We used secondary platoons in 2018. But we had stars in many positions. There is nothing wrong with having a platoon at, say, 1b when you have the MVP in RF, a stud at SS, 3B, and DH etc. Having platoons at multiple positions AND being weaker at some of those positions... not the same thing. I’m not saying it is an absolute. I am saying it makes you vulnerable in a way having full guys doesn’t. I mean... consider a team like the Rays throwing lefty/righty/lefty/righty with Renfroe. If you have guys with ugly splits and a starter tends to go 7? You can plan to have that guy play to his strength. But now you can start that guy and — if Renfroe bats 7th — by the time he bats, there could be a righty in. Then what? Take him out in the 2nd? Or send out the .216/.268/.449 guy against righties? There it is, no Betts so nothing will work and they suck, go look the platoons they did, it wasn't just 1B. We still have SS, 3B, and DH. Vazquez is a lot better, 2B is likely better, yet we don't need to be 2018 the superteam. It's just funny the superteam you love did a ton of what you seem to hate. So what would we do with a guy that hits .717 OPS against RHP? I think we'll be fine against the one team that might actually do that. They had one starter at c, ss, 3b, every OF, and DH. They had a platoon at first and a vomit at 2nd. Do you think those platoons were strengths? Or were largely carried? Moreland played most of the games at first and was a tick above average. Did they need 1st base production? This team has a rotation in outfield, potentially a rotation on the right side of the infield. In 2018, the top two guys had 1.000+ OPSs. This team will have no 1.000+ OPSs. The 2018 team’s best guy was .880+ OPS. No one from last year’s was that high. So this team is constructed to rely less on superstars and spread the offense. Meaning, plug that average 1b and blech 2b from 2018 into this lineup and it is a much bigger problem.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 0:13:59 GMT -5
No. He has had multiple elbow injuries. You get a clean MRI, you are clean. So might it not just as easily be the stress that caused the first injury caused it again? Look at his 6 starts in 2017. That is not a guy with a blown elbow. Especially the career-low walk rate. When you have a blown elbow, it is harder to do anything, including throw strikes. And there *are* guys who are more likely to have it. I was warned from sophomore year of high school I dragged. It was inevitable. And so we have a guy like Eovaldi. You think the *two* TJs mean he is less likely to reinjure? No way. Happens twice, there is a reason. Mechanics, stress, just throwing too damn hard. That is not to say it’ll happen. It is just that it is not an inoculation, and if there are underlying reasons you blew, then the clock starts again when you throw your first pitch of rehab. Why did you have TJ if just letting it heal makes you 100%? Why did Richards get it after not getting it the first time? He threw what 25 innings on that 100% elbow over two years, then has the same issues after 75 innings? Oh course you can tear it again even after it's new and absolutely some guys are more prone then others. How long is the list of pitchers: that get TJ every 100 innings over two years? Eovaldi went 9 years between surgeries. I don’t understand your questions. Are you asking why I didn’t just, like, not play for a year and hope it was better? He had a platelet shot (not available to me). I don’t know why he did, though one assumes his doctors believed it would work. As for blizzard’s point... sure, the MRI could be wrong. But now we’re saying a) the doctors were dumb to give him the shot; b) the doctors were dumb when they cleared him; c) the doctors were dumb when they looked at his MRI; d) he pitched really well with a blown elbow in 2017, felt great as 2018 started, threw 16 more games with a blown elbow, then finally decide to have surgery. So for two years neither he nor his doctors noticed his blown elbow. Two spring trainings, no signs. Then he decides, hey, this has been blown for years but I’ll have surgery right before I go up for free agency.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 28, 2021 0:23:14 GMT -5
Why did you have TJ if just letting it heal makes you 100%? Why did Richards get it after not getting it the first time? He threw what 25 innings on that 100% elbow over two years, then has the same issues after 75 innings? Oh course you can tear it again even after it's new and absolutely some guys are more prone then others. How long is the list of pitchers: that get TJ every 100 innings over two years? Eovaldi went 9 years between surgeries. I don’t understand your questions. Are you asking why I didn’t just, like, not play for a year and hope it was better? He had a platelet shot (not available to me). I don’t know why he did, though one assumes his doctors believed it would work. As for blizzard’s point... sure, the MRI could be wrong. But now we’re saying a) the doctors were dumb to give him the shot; b) the doctors were dumb when they cleared him; c) the doctors were dumb when they looked at his MRI; d) he pitched really well with a blown elbow in 2017, felt great as 2018 started, threw 16 more games with a blown elbow, then finally decide to have surgery. So for two years neither he nor his doctors noticed his blown elbow. Two spring trainings, no signs. Then he decides, hey, this has been blown for years but I’ll have surgery right before I go up for free agency. The whole point is MRIs are not right or wrong. It’s an interpretation of a picture. Ligament swelling and issues can come and go. A full tear may be obvious, but other than that it’s not a 100% science. Lots of players have had lots of success not at full arm strength/health. All I’m saying is when you consistently have arm issues it’s most likely at least somewhat related. None of us know his arm health or what doctors said or suggested. It’s ignorant to assume any of that. Obviously Richards has had an arm issue. How much of it is related is argumentable and for that matter unknown.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 0:29:13 GMT -5
I don’t understand your questions. Are you asking why I didn’t just, like, not play for a year and hope it was better? He had a platelet shot (not available to me). I don’t know why he did, though one assumes his doctors believed it would work. As for blizzard’s point... sure, the MRI could be wrong. But now we’re saying a) the doctors were dumb to give him the shot; b) the doctors were dumb when they cleared him; c) the doctors were dumb when they looked at his MRI; d) he pitched really well with a blown elbow in 2017, felt great as 2018 started, threw 16 more games with a blown elbow, then finally decide to have surgery. So for two years neither he nor his doctors noticed his blown elbow. Two spring trainings, no signs. Then he decides, hey, this has been blown for years but I’ll have surgery right before I go up for free agency. The whole point is MRIs are not right or wrong. It’s an interpretation of a picture. Ligament swelling and issues can come and go. A full tear may be obvious, but other than that it’s not a 100% science. Lots of players have had lots of success not at full arm strength/health. All I’m saying is when you consistently have arm issues it’s most likely at least somewhat related. None of us know his arm health or what doctors said or suggested. It’s ignorant to assume any of that. Obviously Richards has had an arm issue. How much of it is related is argumentable and for that matter unknown. You can go back to reports from 2017 and 2018 and see what the doctors said.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 28, 2021 0:37:35 GMT -5
The whole point is MRIs are not right or wrong. It’s an interpretation of a picture. Ligament swelling and issues can come and go. A full tear may be obvious, but other than that it’s not a 100% science. Lots of players have had lots of success not at full arm strength/health. All I’m saying is when you consistently have arm issues it’s most likely at least somewhat related. None of us know his arm health or what doctors said or suggested. It’s ignorant to assume any of that. Obviously Richards has had an arm issue. How much of it is related is argumentable and for that matter unknown. You can go back to reports from 2017 and 2018 and see what the doctors said. The same doctors that said C-19 had a 2% death rate?? Obviously we can’t agree on this. No reason for me to make anymore points on it.
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 0:48:32 GMT -5
You can go back to reports from 2017 and 2018 and see what the doctors said. The same doctors that said C-19 had a 2% death rate?? Obviously we can’t agree on this. No reason for me to make anymore points on it. Ummm... no. These were likely orthopedic surgeons. I take it back. Plug Richards in for 30 starts and 200 innings.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 28, 2021 1:13:03 GMT -5
Why did you have TJ if just letting it heal makes you 100%? Why did Richards get it after not getting it the first time? He threw what 25 innings on that 100% elbow over two years, then has the same issues after 75 innings? Oh course you can tear it again even after it's new and absolutely some guys are more prone then others. How long is the list of pitchers: that get TJ every 100 innings over two years? Eovaldi went 9 years between surgeries. I don’t understand your questions. Are you asking why I didn’t just, like, not play for a year and hope it was better? He had a platelet shot (not available to me). I don’t know why he did, though one assumes his doctors believed it would work. As for blizzard’s point... sure, the MRI could be wrong. But now we’re saying a) the doctors were dumb to give him the shot; b) the doctors were dumb when they cleared him; c) the doctors were dumb when they looked at his MRI; d) he pitched really well with a blown elbow in 2017, felt great as 2018 started, threw 16 more games with a blown elbow, then finally decide to have surgery. So for two years neither he nor his doctors noticed his blown elbow. Two spring trainings, no signs. Then he decides, hey, this has been blown for years but I’ll have surgery right before I go up for free agency. Yes! You'd pass an MRI in a year showing no tear, that's means 100% right?
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Post by incandenza on Feb 28, 2021 1:54:30 GMT -5
So, like, just to try to ground this conversation a little bit:
-The question about Richards' health is relevant because manfred thinks the team can't possibly be competitive this season (despite his own 86-win prediction), and one of the reasons for that is that Richards can't possibly be healthy enough to contribute significantly. Am I reading that argument right? -So if someone thought it was at least possible that Richards could contribute meaningfully to the team, then it might at least be possible for the team to be competitive? Is there any disagreement on that?
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Post by manfred on Feb 28, 2021 8:59:22 GMT -5
So, like, just to try to ground this conversation a little bit: -The question about Richards' health is relevant because manfred thinks the team can't possibly be competitive this season (despite his own 86-win prediction), and one of the reasons for that is that Richards can't possibly be healthy enough to contribute significantly. Am I reading that argument right? -So if someone thought it was at least possible that Richards could contribute meaningfully to the team, then it might at least be possible for the team to be competitive? Is there any disagreement on that? I honestly don’t even remember. I think I made the minor point that Richards has a long injury history and is a risk at $10 million relative to a guy like Happ at $8.5. That I followed with the what I thought was equally uncontroversial... if it works, Bloom done good, but if it doesn’t Bloom done very dumb. Lastly, we have different definitions of competitive. I said thr Sox will win 86, and they will not make the playoffs. Not competitive. (You keep saying, well, an 86 win team could be a 91 win team... if I thought they could win 91, I’d take 91. I think they *can* win 86. That is my ceiling.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 28, 2021 10:13:57 GMT -5
So, like, just to try to ground this conversation a little bit: -The question about Richards' health is relevant because manfred thinks the team can't possibly be competitive this season (despite his own 86-win prediction), and one of the reasons for that is that Richards can't possibly be healthy enough to contribute significantly. Am I reading that argument right? -So if someone thought it was at least possible that Richards could contribute meaningfully to the team, then it might at least be possible for the team to be competitive? Is there any disagreement on that? I honestly don’t even remember. I think I made the minor point that Richards has a long injury history and is a risk at $10 million relative to a guy like Happ at $8.5. That I followed with the what I thought was equally uncontroversial... if it works, Bloom done good, but if it doesn’t Bloom done very dumb. Lastly, we have different definitions of competitive. I said thr Sox will win 86, and they will not make the playoffs. Not competitive. (You keep saying, well, an 86 win team could be a 91 win team... if I thought they could win 91, I’d take 91. I think they *can* win 86. That is my ceiling.) So basically you're saying that you expect them to max out your ceiling projection? I mean, I have them around .500 but acknowledge there is so much volatility and risk in the kind of team Bloom put together that this team could win 90 as easily as they could lose 90. I believe this team's ceiling is higher than 86 wins but their floor is lower than 76 wins if things go south. I think the one thing that I'm seeing that points the arrow in the right direction is that if the starting pitchers like Eovaldi or Richards break down, the second half brings viable help from the farm in Houck, Mata, and Seabold, not to mention Sale. That's so much better options than they've had recently. I'd like to see them win 90 in 2021 but winning 90 plus for a sustained period of time, say 2023-2032 is a helluva lot more important than this individual season.
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