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Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 23, 2021 0:29:02 GMT -5
I think Kiké is our Zobrist if we can sign an OF. I think Marte is probably the best fit. Heâs a bit overrated defensively with his mediocre jumps, but heâs a great contact hitter and base stealer. Much better fit than a Castellanos or Schwarber if JD opts in. JD opts out, then I think itâs any of those 3 w/ Schwarber, Castellanos, and JD. Marte is 33, but it could be a Brantley type signing.
Bullpen there are so many options, so a shotgun approach with room for Feltman and others is probably what weâre going to see. Vince Velazquez as a reliever or others like that really intrigues me. Raisel Iglesias is going to get overpaid, so I think Velazquez or Foltynewicz as reliever converts similar to Graverman make a lot of sense
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 23, 2021 1:06:30 GMT -5
Way ahead of schedule
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Post by Guidas on Oct 23, 2021 8:45:44 GMT -5
We'll see within the next two years whether this year was a Cherington-style aberration (albeit one that fell six wins short of that triumph) or these guys are legit long-term contenders. I am more cautiously optimistic than I was in March but will need to see the next two years of off-season moves and trades to be convinced.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 23, 2021 8:59:25 GMT -5
We'll see within the next two years whether this year was a Cherington-style aberration (albeit one that fell six wins short of that triumph) or these guys are legit long-term contenders. I am more cautiously optimistic than I was in March but will need to see the next two years of off-season moves and trades to be convinced. Progress has been made, lots to still be done. I'll take my $100k Big 4 consulting fee now, thx John Henry. Cautious optimism is where I'm at too. Love the steps forward on the farm for position players, rough year for top pitchers.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 29, 2021 10:11:25 GMT -5
We'll see within the next two years whether this year was a Cherington-style aberration (albeit one that fell six wins short of that triumph) or these guys are legit long-term contenders. I am more cautiously optimistic than I was in March but will need to see the next two years of off-season moves and trades to be convinced. Progress has been made, lots to still be done. I'll take my $100k Big 4 consulting fee now, thx John Henry. Cautious optimism is where I'm at too. Love the steps forward on the farm for position players, rough year for top pitchers. I liked Cherington, but he was a terrible GM as a whole (2013 noted). The 2012 year was not on him, but 2014 and 2015 sure were (Sandoval, Hanley, Rusney, and Allen Craig (who fans never mention and his $38 million). Bloom is absolutely no Cherington, and Schwarber is no Hanley. By the way Renfroe was nominated for both Gold Glove and Silver Bat (all for $3.1 million and 2 more years of controllability).
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 29, 2021 12:02:44 GMT -5
I'll say this...if the As are going to rebuild I'd certainly place a call to them about Manaea and Chapman. I'm not sure if Canha is a free agent but if not they should explore him too. Bench bat that can play all 3 OF spots and 1st. Would be an upgrade on Shaw.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 29, 2021 12:14:27 GMT -5
I'll say this...if the As are going to rebuild I'd certainly place a call to them about Manaea and Chapman. I'm not sure if Canha is a free agent but if not they should explore him too. Bench bat that can play all 3 OF spots and 1st. Would be an upgrade on Shaw. Canha is a free agent. I wouldn't mind kicking the tires on him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 29, 2021 14:06:41 GMT -5
I'll say this...if the As are going to rebuild I'd certainly place a call to them about Manaea and Chapman. I'm not sure if Canha is a free agent but if not they should explore him too. Bench bat that can play all 3 OF spots and 1st. Would be an upgrade on Shaw. I would think Dalbec would interest the As quite a bit. In fact the Sox might be in position to get both those guys. The thing about both Manaea and Chapman is they will have trade value 2 years from now so they could turn them back into prospects again in the future at some point. Unless they became core players and part of the future. It may be shooting high but those are good players that are still arb eligible next and the following for Chapman. Duran, Dalbec and ?? for Manae and Chapman.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 29, 2021 16:45:53 GMT -5
That's a very optimistic take, that his offense and defense improve. He just had his best offensive season of his career by both Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence. 2019 looks like a fluke given all the other years. He basically made no mistakes, yet he didn't do that the two years before or the two years after. Maybe he improves or maybe given how tricky fenway can be in the OF he's just going to commit more errors. How in the world did he snag a GG nomination? Blows my mind. At best you can call him an average defender. You never know Baseball is the most unpredictable sport, I just wouldn't count of him improving both given his career stats. I'm not trading him, I don't get that. Yet I'm for sure adding insurance in case his bat from 2019 and 2020 shows up. As he tied for the major league lead with 16 outfield assists and played for a winning team...I don't think there was much thinking past that. He also tied for the MLB lead (for OFers) with 6 throwing errors and lead MLB in OF fielding errors with 6. Very give and take. I'd like to see Bloom trade Renfroe or Verdugo for SP/RP help with the other handling RF. (presumably Schwarber, Xander or Devers in LF) I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 29, 2021 18:08:51 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. If this free agent market provides better value for FA bats than FA pitchers it'd theoretically make sense to trade Renfroe for a pitcher and buy a bat. It's not that simple, but it's entirely possible a FA bat + player(s) acquired for Renfroe could be superior value to Renfroe + a FA pitcher. They shouldn't look to deal him, but if they're offered fair or better value for him and can replace or upgrade his spot at value they certainly shouldn't close the door at this point.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 29, 2021 18:50:41 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. If this free agent market provides better value for FA bats than FA pitchers it'd theoretically make sense to trade Renfroe for a pitcher and buy a bat. It's not that simple, but it's entirely possible a FA bat + player(s) acquired for Renfroe could be superior value to Renfroe + a FA pitcher. They shouldn't look to deal him, but if they're offered fair or better value for him and can replace or upgrade his spot at value they certainly shouldn't close the door at this point. My only reservation there is the outfield class seems pretty dang weak this offseason so who can they really sign that would produce what renfroe did this year? Only one I see is marte. But I do agree with your premise. It all just depends on how the market shakes out. I'd deal renfroe in a heartbeat if he brought back a solid starter and the Red Sox were signing an outfielder to replace him. I'm just not sure how much money the Red sox are going to be looking to spend this offseason and before we really know that it's really hard for me to figurenout what avenue I think would be best.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 29, 2021 19:17:56 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. If this free agent market provides better value for FA bats than FA pitchers it'd theoretically make sense to trade Renfroe for a pitcher and buy a bat. It's not that simple, but it's entirely possible a FA bat + player(s) acquired for Renfroe could be superior value to Renfroe + a FA pitcher. They shouldn't look to deal him, but if they're offered fair or better value for him and can replace or upgrade his spot at value they certainly shouldn't close the door at this point. As I stated above, there is a plethora of FA pitchers at all price levels this offseason. Between pitchers, SS and the CBA it should be an interesting winter. It could lead to a shortage of money after the top SS and starters are signed leaving some deals to be had. In regards to closing the door, I don't think the door is closed on any Sox player as far as Chaim is concerned. It is always about upgrading the roster at every level as far as he is concerned. I guess we will have to wait and see what Chaim thinks about Renfroe. If he agrees with me he will be back, if he gets what he perceives to be value and thinks Renfroe has peaked then he won't.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 19:57:06 GMT -5
As he tied for the major league lead with 16 outfield assists and played for a winning team...I don't think there was much thinking past that. He also tied for the MLB lead (for OFers) with 6 throwing errors and lead MLB in OF fielding errors with 6. Very give and take. I'd like to see Bloom trade Renfroe or Verdugo for SP/RP help with the other handling RF. (presumably Schwarber, Xander or Devers in LF) I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do it RF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 29, 2021 20:03:31 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). -Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). Isn't that always the risk of free agent pitchers though? It's pretty rare for any relatively young ace to be a free agent. Even the ones that do i.e. Gerrit Cole have somewhat mixed results for their price tag. The Sox most definitely need to acquire a "solid" starter this offseason. Whether that's resigning erod, signing a stroman,gausman,Ray or trading for one. I'd say their weakest position is pitching as of right now.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 20:08:12 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). -Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). Isn't that always the risk of free agent pitchers though? It's pretty rare for any relatively young ace to be a free agent. Even the ones that do i.e. Gerrit Cole have somewhat mixed results for their price tag. The Sox most definitely need to acquire a "solid" starter this offseason. Whether that's resigning erod, signing a stroman,gausman,Ray or trading for one. Yes - exactly. But there are several young high-end position players in free agency. So if possible, sign them and trade from strength. As the OF market is a bit weak, Renfroe/Verdugo may have more value than usual.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 29, 2021 22:00:10 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do it RF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year. I am sure Bloom will listen to any and all deals brought to him, but the pitching offered would have to be pretty damn good too trade for a starting OFer like Renfroe or Verdugo, and not some unproven AAA or lottery ticket.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2021 9:18:44 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). -Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). Isn't that always the risk of free agent pitchers though? It's pretty rare for any relatively young ace to be a free agent. Even the ones that do i.e. Gerrit Cole have somewhat mixed results for their price tag. The Sox most definitely need to acquire a "solid" starter this offseason. Whether that's resigning erod, signing a stroman,gausman,Ray or trading for one. I'd say their weakest position is pitching as of right now. It may just be me, but unless you can somehow find a team willing to part with a top starter with some control left (Montas, say) and you are absolutely fine with the medicals, I'd rather pay for it on the open market then give up top talent from the farm or the MLB team - especially position player talent. It seems like when you trade for a guy and he goes down for a significant period of time you've lost twice - the opportunity cost of the talent and the pitcher. When you buy it, injury is pretty much factored into the cost.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2021 12:51:35 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do itRF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year. I'll take the under on Arroyo and the over on Verdugo.
Arroyo outperformed his xwOBA, which was only .298, considerably. I think he's due for offensive regression, and would have him as more like a 1-2 WAR player. I like the defense though, and that's something they desperately need at 2B given the weaknesses elsewhere in the infield.
Verdugo, meanwhile, had the best peripheral offensive stats of his career, other than his ISO dipping a bit. His defense was only down because of his being played out of position in CF; he was still good in the corner positions. And I still think he had an injury mid-season that affected him on offense and defense (and could account for the sprint speed drop-off). Also he's still only 25. I think he'll pop a 4 WAR season one of these years.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 30, 2021 14:10:47 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do itRF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year. I'll take the under on Arroyo and the over on Verdugo. Arroyo outperformed his xwOBA, which was only .298, considerably. I think he's due for offensive regression, and would have him as more like a 1-2 WAR player. I like the defense though, and that's something they desperately need at 2B given the weaknesses elsewhere in the infield. Verdugo, meanwhile, had the best peripheral offensive stats of his career, other than his ISO dipping a bit. His defense was only down because of his being played out of position in CF; he was still good in the corner positions. And I still think he had an injury mid-season that affected him on offense and defense (and could account for the sprint speed drop-off). Also he's still only 25. I think he'll pop a 4 WAR season one of these years.
In terms of Arroyo, I think we both agree that the defense is for real and he should be a plus defender going forward. He had a 106 wRC this year - if it regresses to the range of his previous two years (very limited ABs) then he's between 87 and 94 wRC, which still puts him in the range of a 2.5 fWAR player (assuming his defense and base running remain the same) - plus defense at 2b is very valuable. This should make him cheaper, better and with more control than Renfroe. I hope you're right about Verdugo playing through injury being the reason for his falloff with speed and defense (makes sense that one would beget the other). In terms of playing CF, he was a solid center fielder at times for the Dodgers and the previous DRS/UZR showed him as an above average CFer. We're dealing with SSS when breaking apart his OF numbers of course. I've been a fan of Verdugo since he made the majors with the Dodgers, so I'd like to see him bounce back a bit and continue to improve on the Red Sox. But I lost him with Renfroe because I assume Verdugo would fetch a much higher price on the trade market for a pitcher.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 30, 2021 14:52:49 GMT -5
Verdugo June 7th before a back issue keept him out of a few games .292 .351 .469 .820, after .287 .351 .400.
Before the injury his .469 slugging percentage was right there with the two years prior of .475 and .478. It sure seems that injury took away his power.
My worry is this the same back issue he dealt with before the trade? I think he bounces back when healthy and if you keep him away from CF he could be back to being a key young piece. Yet I need to know more, because back injuries can destroy careers. So let's hope it's just something minor.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 30, 2021 14:55:45 GMT -5
I'll take the under on Arroyo and the over on Verdugo. Arroyo outperformed his xwOBA, which was only .298, considerably. I think he's due for offensive regression, and would have him as more like a 1-2 WAR player. I like the defense though, and that's something they desperately need at 2B given the weaknesses elsewhere in the infield. Verdugo, meanwhile, had the best peripheral offensive stats of his career, other than his ISO dipping a bit. His defense was only down because of his being played out of position in CF; he was still good in the corner positions. And I still think he had an injury mid-season that affected him on offense and defense (and could account for the sprint speed drop-off). Also he's still only 25. I think he'll pop a 4 WAR season one of these years.
In terms of Arroyo, I think we both agree that the defense is for real and he should be a plus defender going forward. He had a 106 wRC this year - if it regresses to the range of his previous two years (very limited ABs) then he's between 87 and 94 wRC, which still puts him in the range of a 2.5 fWAR player (assuming his defense and base running remain the same) - plus defense at 2b is very valuable. This should make him cheaper, better and with more control than Renfroe. I hope you're right about Verdugo playing through injury being the reason for his falloff with speed and defense (makes sense that one would beget the other). In terms of playing CF, he was a solid center fielder at times for the Dodgers and the previous DRS/UZR showed him as an above average CFer. We're dealing with SSS when breaking apart his OF numbers of course. I've been a fan of Verdugo since he made the majors with the Dodgers, so I'd like to see him bounce back a bit and continue to improve on the Red Sox. But I lost him with Renfroe because I assume Verdugo would fetch a much higher price on the trade market for a pitcher. Good points. Arroyo might well be that valuable - if the defense is really real. I think the sample size is still too small to say for sure; he's played in just 142 games in his career. But he certainly looked good this year!
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Post by notstarboard on Oct 30, 2021 14:59:38 GMT -5
In 2019 Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar per BR, so he has been better in the field. Would it be a surprise if he learns to play Fenway better and his D is positive again. How many runs does he save with that arm? I am predicting a better season both at the plate and in right. He progressed this year in his approach and his barrel rate and hard hit% were very good. Especially considering it took him a long time to get going and even longer before the power showed up. Either way he is a great get for the cost and he will greatly exceed his cost/value again next year. Or he will get you something good in a trade but I just don't see that. I guess they could sign Schwarber and move Duggy back to right. That's a very optimistic take, that his offense and defense improve. He just had his best offensive season of his career by both Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence. 2019 looks like a fluke given all the other years. He basically made no mistakes, yet he didn't do that the two years before or the two years after. Maybe he improves or maybe given how tricky fenway can be in the OF he's just going to commit more errors. How in the world did he snag a GG nomination? Blows my mind. At best you can call him an average defender. You never know Baseball is the most unpredictable sport, I just wouldn't count of him improving both given his career stats. I'm not trading him, I don't get that. Yet I'm for sure adding insurance in case his bat from 2019 and 2020 shows up. His errors this year were mostly mental. He just tries to throw everyone out, and occasionally that results in balls getting away or runners advancing because he threw to the wrong base. That can certainly be fixed. The man has a career 108 OPS+ and he just had a 112 OPS+ in his age 29 season. I don't see him regressing in 2022, and I think there's a legit case for him having a stronger year next year given that he was a wreck at the plate for the first month and a half of 2021 until he changed his approach and started murdering the ball. If he continues his production from the last ~75% of 2021 into 2022 he'll have a comfortably better 2022.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Oct 30, 2021 15:30:12 GMT -5
Verdugo June 7th before a back issue keept him out of a few games .292 .351 .469 .820, after .287 .351 .400. Before the injury his .469 slugging percentage was right there with the two years prior of .475 and .478. It sure seems that injury took away his power. My worry is this the same back issue he dealt with before the trade? I think he bounces back when healthy and if you keep him away from CF he could be back to being a key young piece. Yet I need to know more, because back injuries can destroy careers. So let's hope it's just something minor. His pre-trade injury was a stress fracture. His brief troubles this past year were lower back stiffness. I don't think those would be related. I think he also had trouble with his legs now and then. I think he's be better off playing 5 or 6 days a week rather than 7.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 30, 2021 16:05:12 GMT -5
That's a very optimistic take, that his offense and defense improve. He just had his best offensive season of his career by both Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence. 2019 looks like a fluke given all the other years. He basically made no mistakes, yet he didn't do that the two years before or the two years after. Maybe he improves or maybe given how tricky fenway can be in the OF he's just going to commit more errors. How in the world did he snag a GG nomination? Blows my mind. At best you can call him an average defender. You never know Baseball is the most unpredictable sport, I just wouldn't count of him improving both given his career stats. I'm not trading him, I don't get that. Yet I'm for sure adding insurance in case his bat from 2019 and 2020 shows up. His errors this year were mostly mental. He just tries to throw everyone out, and occasionally that results in balls getting away or runners advancing because he threw to the wrong base. That can certainly be fixed. The man has a career 108 OPS+ and he just had a 112 OPS+ in his age 29 season. I don't see him regressing in 2022, and I think there's a legit case for him having a stronger year next year given that he was a wreck at the plate for the first month and a half of 2021 until he changed his approach and started murdering the ball. If he continues his production from the last ~75% of 2021 into 2022 he'll have a comfortably better 2022. April through September per month .485 .938 .884 .650 1.037 .794 his career average splits .675 .921 .835 .694 .774 .819 Also his OPS+ per year 213, 96, 120, 103, 79 and 112. I think those tell a little different story.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 31, 2021 8:27:25 GMT -5
I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do it RF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year. You are entitled to your opinion but this FA pitching class is loaded with guys at every level except maybe the very top end. Which is only held back by age, Scherzer and Verlander are perennial CY Young candidates when healthy but are on the backside for sure. But even in saying that I think most expect them to still be very very good. This pitching FA class looks loaded to me. Rodon, Ray, Kershaw, Stromen, Gausmen, Thor, Gray, DeSaclafani, ERod and Grienke for starters. Then their are always BP guys available that have good track records. I am guessing that with the quality of the position player class that their won't be enough money to go around and some deals could be had. I could be off on this prediction but I see maybe 7 guys getting in excess of 25m aav. Of course their is the CBA to contend with.
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