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Post by Jimmy on Apr 15, 2021 16:00:01 GMT -5
4/15 Bullpen Trust Meter:
1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock 3. Matt Andriese (+3) 4. Hirokazu Sawamura 5. Darwinzon Hernandez (+2) 6. Phillips Valdez (-3) 7. Adam Ottovino (-2) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor
Andriese working into the top tier. Sawamura over Valdez is an adjustment from last time as I see I was wrong there. Darwinzon and Andriese worked their way past Valdez this series. Brice and Taylor stuck in 8 & 9 forever.
I know most people want Otto higher but he really needs to prove it first.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 15, 2021 19:51:52 GMT -5
Barnes Whitlock
Ottavino, Hernandez, Sawamura, Andriese in any order
Valdez Taylor Brice
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Post by manfred on Apr 15, 2021 19:55:37 GMT -5
I look at these names, and I could list questions for any. But.... then I watch the Rays, the Orioles, and the Twins and I think “is there a team with a bullpen so good that if I were a fan of said team, I’d just feel absolute certainty it is great.” — and then I am led to believe it is the nature of bullpens to make you nervous. So... taking that into account, I still feel like this bullpen is a relative strength. There are enough guys who can be very good on any given day that they can pick each other up.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 15, 2021 20:35:28 GMT -5
I look at these names, and I could list questions for any. But.... then I watch the Rays, the Orioles, and the Twins and I think “is there a team with a bullpen so good that if I were a fan of said team, I’d just feel absolute certainty it is great.” — and then I am led to believe it is the nature of bullpens to make you nervous. So... taking that into account, I still feel like this bullpen is a relative strength. There are enough guys who can be very good on any given day that they can pick each other up. Agreed. I think this could go from very good bullpen to great bullpen if we are in the position to add an impact guy at the deadline and do so. Or if Otto figures it out.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 0:13:23 GMT -5
I honestly don't know how the Sox' bullpen stacks up with others. I do know that the pen issues way too many free passes and that between Barnes (although that has NOT been the case this year), Ottavino (sadly it has been the case this year), Sawamura, and Darwinzon, there will be a lot of baserunners issued via the walk. And in a tight ballgame with these guys mostly pitching high leverage, it will cost them their fair share of ballgames sooner or later. You can't always expect to navigate around a walk or two. Sooner or later bloopers fall in or leadoff walks come around, etc.
The Sox will probably need a strike throwing addition to the pen at some point this summer, somebody who can be the main 8th inning guy/secondary closer/high leverage reliever, type role.
They might be able to get that guy without making a trade. I figure that either Whitlock grabs that role, although I don't know if him pitching multiple days in a row can work, and honestly if they need a starter in the second half, he'd be the first guy I turn to. I'm looking more at Seabold or even possibly Chris Sale if they aren't able to stretch him out, although he wouldn't be able to go back-to-back days either. There's also Houck, but he, too can have control issues, and I think the Sox would much prefer to utilize him in the rotation. You have to figure that the Sox will need at least two additional starters at some point between ineffectiveness and injuries. And I don't see anybody who is a true reliever in the minors that can make the jump. Mata would have been an interesting candidate but that's not happening now.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 16, 2021 15:58:41 GMT -5
I really don't get the Ottavino's skepticism in this forum. For me this community is the most thoughtful and less reactionary one in the Red Sox Internet and by that I mean its members are well aware of the significance of samples sizes and tend to avoid certain types of bias like the confirmation bias ("Look at Ottavino's ERA from last year! He sucked in these THREE AND TWO THIRDS innings so hE MuSt Be BrOkEn RiGhT?"). Personally, I loved the trade and still do and here's why: His track record indicates that he's death to RHH and will struggle facing LHH and I'll certainly take that in the AL East, home of Judge, Sanchez, Stanton, Voit, Torres, Bichette, Guerrero Jr, Mancini, Arozarena... Late in the game, high leverage situation, one of these guys steps to the plate, it would be nice for Cora to have someone like that in the bullpen. You saw what he did to Nelson Cruz yesterday?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 16:26:50 GMT -5
I really don't get the Ottavino's skepticism in this forum. For me this community is the most thoughtful and less reactionary one in the Red Sox Internet and by that I mean its members are well aware of the significance of samples sizes and tend to avoid certain types of bias like the confirmation bias ("Look at Ottavino's ERA from last year! He sucked in these THREE AND TWO THIRDS innings so hE MuSt Be BrOkEn RiGhT?"). Personally, I loved the trade and still do and here's why: His track record indicates that he's death to RHH and will struggle facing LHH and I'll certainly take that in the AL East, home of Judge, Sanchez, Stanton, Voit, Torres, Bichette, Guerrero Jr, Mancini, Arozarena... Late in the game, high leverage situation, one of these guys steps to the plate, it would be nice for Cora to have someone like that in the bullpen. You saw what he did to Nelson Cruz yesterday? Maybe because his walk rate has been increasing the past several years. Maybe because his ERA sucked last year and yes, we know he had a crappy outing that blew up his ERA, but then again I'm sure a lot of relievers look better when you give them a mulligan. My concern about him isn't 3.2 innings as much as it's his growing walk rate since 2017. His BB/9 rates the past few years are 6.6 in 2017, 4.2 in 2018, 5.4 in 2019, and 4.4 in 2020, which are figures much higher than they were prior to 2017. In an extremely small sample size this season it's 7.4, excluding the HBP. Guys like that make me nervous. He has survived the 2017 - 2019 by being extremely tough to hit, but sooner or later I think the abundance of walks can cause an issue. Will it be this year? Don't know. So far he has allowed 7 hits in 3.2 IP, a ratio that is unlike what he has had in the past, so it is concerning. Small sample size, but let's see, he's still walking guys at a high rate, but they're also getting hits off him, and that trend started last year. So brushing it off as being reactionary isn't fair. I'm willing to give him more rope but I think it's very fair to have concerns about him going forward, especially as a guy pitching in high leverage situations. He just strikes me at a guy hitting a crossroads and I think there are signs that he is trending in the wrong direction.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 16, 2021 18:06:12 GMT -5
I really don't get the Ottavino's skepticism in this forum. For me this community is the most thoughtful and less reactionary one in the Red Sox Internet and by that I mean its members are well aware of the significance of samples sizes and tend to avoid certain types of bias like the confirmation bias ("Look at Ottavino's ERA from last year! He sucked in these THREE AND TWO THIRDS innings so hE MuSt Be BrOkEn RiGhT?"). Personally, I loved the trade and still do and here's why: His track record indicates that he's death to RHH and will struggle facing LHH and I'll certainly take that in the AL East, home of Judge, Sanchez, Stanton, Voit, Torres, Bichette, Guerrero Jr, Mancini, Arozarena... Late in the game, high leverage situation, one of these guys steps to the plate, it would be nice for Cora to have someone like that in the bullpen. You saw what he did to Nelson Cruz yesterday? I still like the trade. But for this exercise, which is who do I trust RIGHT NOW, he’s been penalized as he should be for the poor start. In no way is this meant to be a long term projection. I know others may have more long term concerns, and maybe that’s what you’re referring to. I would not undo the trade if given the opportunity to do so.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 17, 2021 19:29:42 GMT -5
Statcast's xERA. I'm including the starters as well, because, why not?
I just fired up my pERA which is based on just EV, HardHit%, Barrel% and Launch Angle (plus K and BB rates, of course). And I discovered that the new baseball breaks it completely, since Exit Velos and hence HardHit% are up with the ball being lighter, but they have much less impact on results because the ball is draggier.
xERA is probably off a bit as well, but the closer you get to the actual results, the less the new ball matters.
I'll try re-running the formula at the end of the month ...
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Post by patford on Apr 17, 2021 19:56:08 GMT -5
...this community is the most thoughtful and less reactionary one in the Red Sox Internet... You mean there are places that are worse? Remind me to not look around the Internet.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2021 6:32:59 GMT -5
Win Probability Added, adjusted for leverage, per 60 IP. Purely descriptive. Matt Barnes 4.88 Darw. Hernandez 2.97 Garre. Whitlock 2.78 Hirok. Sawamura 1.66 Matt Andriese 0.78 Phillips Valdez 0.46 Austin Brice -0.29 Josh Taylor -2.66 Adam Ottavino -4.97 Guys 1 and 3, 24 SO, 2 BB in 14.1 IP.
Guys 2 and 4, 11 SO, 10 BB in 12.1 IP.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 20, 2021 1:54:49 GMT -5
You don't see this too often.
Phillips Valdez ranks:
10th, Boston Red Sox reliever depth chart
8th, MLB xwOBA / xERA, of 287 qualifying pitchers.
3rd, Boston Red Sox xwOBA / xERA (Whitlock is 3rd in MLB, Barnes is 6th)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 20, 2021 8:22:45 GMT -5
You don't see this too often.
Phillips Valdez ranks:
10th, Boston Red Sox reliever depth chart
8th, MLB xwOBA / xERA, of 287 qualifying pitchers.
3rd, Boston Red Sox xwOBA / xERA (Whitlock is 3rd in MLB, Barnes is 6th)
Phillps has the lowest HardHit% in MLB of pitchers with 20+ Batted Ball Events.
OTOH, of guys with 15+ events, Taylor is second worst and Darwinzon is 4th worst.
OTTH, a high HardHit% is an inaccurate stat. 95 has never been a hard hit ball, as there are more balls hit 96 than 95. But Taylor has 2 out of 15 and Darwinzon 1 out of 10 at 95-6.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 8:35:45 GMT -5
Fangraphs has the Sox along with the Dodgers at the top of MLB heep and they really like the bullpen. That's before yesterday's game: They have them with a FIP- of 72. It's the site's first power rankings of the season. blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-week-1/
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Post by bcsox on Apr 20, 2021 11:27:13 GMT -5
Valdez is always going to get a ton of heavy skepticism from this board as from others because:
(A) he was a non prospect (B) he looks like a middle schooler (C) he was scrap heap find; (C) he is the proverbial cant break a plane of glass guy.
Low velocity pitchers, with a body that looks like he will be exhausted after 10 pitches, who havent been highly thought of before, who rely on deception and a change up, arent ever going to be appreciated and even if he performs well, will always be fighting for his career. He can post great numbers, but if a team in free agency has to pick between him and a guy who is 6'4, classic pitchers build, who can hump it up to 97-98, but cant find the plate and cant get guys out consistently, I would guess that 95% of the time, the big guy with lesser success and worse numbers will get the bigger contract.
Not saying that Valdez deserves more high leverage innings, but lets just say the bases are loaded 2 outs in the ninth, up one run, and you can have one pitcher on the mound, and the choice is between Valdez, Ottavino, Darwinzon and Sawamura, in which order are you going?
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Post by soxstan96 on Apr 20, 2021 11:41:57 GMT -5
Near-full trust:
Whitlock Barnes
Fairweather trust:
Hernandez Andriese Sawamura Valdez
Slight lack of trust:
Ottavino
Little-to-no trust
Taylor Brice
I'd really like to see McCarthy or Rondon replace Brice eventually. They're better-established major league arms, despite being mostly average themselves. Bazardo is an interesting prospect and I'm looking forward to seeing more of him. Our lack of LHP depth makes Taylor a necessity to keep on the big league roster for now, unfortunately. As mediocre as he's been, he's still a better option than Poyner and Hall Pass.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 11:42:46 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 12:20:08 GMT -5
He was one of the nice pickups last year, a season that, with trades, the Rule 5 draft, and the scouring of the waiver wires, was filled with them. I've always wondered if there was unaccounted for value floating around in MLB, comparable to what Belichick digs up year after year in football. Sure seems that way. Here's the graphic version of those numbers. Stellar stuff for someone who doesn't strike all that many batters out (click to enlarge):
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art
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Post by art on Apr 20, 2021 13:20:35 GMT -5
He was one of the nice pickups last year, a season that, with trades, the Rule 5 draft, and the scouring of the waiver wires, was filled with them. I've always wondered if there was unaccounted for value floating around in MLB, comparable to what Belichick digs up year after year in football. Sure seems that way. Here's the graphic version of those numbers. Stellar stuff for someone who doesn't strike all that many batters out (click to enlarge): Those are great numbers, but won't scouting catch on to his change percentage and have batters looking for it?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 13:23:59 GMT -5
They might look for it, but can they find it to get solid contact off it??
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Post by manfred on Apr 20, 2021 13:27:04 GMT -5
They might look for it, but can they find it to get solid contact off it?? He still throws his fastball enough that if you cheat change too much it’ll get on you in a hurry. Remy actually talked about this during the game yesterday... that he never looked for changeups.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 20, 2021 14:28:33 GMT -5
I think this is one of the more obvious "modern" pitching changes in the game - if you have one pitch that's clearly your best pitch, why would you only throw it like 25% of the time because you "need to pitch off your fastball"?
At this point, the book is out on him, so it's not a matter of batters catching on or something.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 21, 2021 22:47:34 GMT -5
4/21
1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock 3. Matt Andriese 4. Phillips Valdez (+2) 5. Adam Ottovino (+2) 6. Hirokazu Sawamura (-2) 7. Darwinzon Hernandez (-2) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor (If Astudillo was on the Sox he would be ahead of Taylor)
Valdez really bounced back after that one blowup a week ago. Otto starting to look good and the advanced metrics back it up. Not a slight on Sawamura or Darwinzon. Side note, Sawamura’s advanced metrics don’t look great. I didn’t really factor that in, this is more Valdez and Otto pitching their way up the list, but thought it interesting to note.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 21, 2021 22:49:37 GMT -5
I also think it’s time to start thinking about removing Josh Taylor from the roster immediately. Bloom needs to do it for Cora’s own good.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 21, 2021 23:44:43 GMT -5
4/21 1. Matt Barnes 2. Garrett Whitlock 3. Matt Andriese 4. Phillips Valdez (+2) 5. Adam Ottovino (+2) 6. Hirokazu Sawamura (-2) 7. Darwinzon Hernandez (-2) 8. Austin Brice 9. Josh Taylor (If Astudillo was on the Sox he would be ahead of Taylor) Valdez really bounced back after that one blowup a week ago. Otto starting to look good and the advanced metrics back it up. Not a slight on Sawamura or Darwinzon. Side note, Sawamura’s advanced metrics don’t look great. I didn’t really factor that in, this is more Valdez and Otto pitching their way up the list, but thought it interesting to note. Any position players you'd put ahead of Taylor?
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