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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 25, 2021 22:56:35 GMT -5
I've wondered why both hernandez and Ottavino continued to get late game appearances lately. hernandez has had control issues his entire career, great movement on all his pitches or not and Ottavino just flat out is not consistent, it's all that can be said of him.
The pen really (to me) should have Sawamura setting up Barnes until he shows he can't be counted on. He's looked pretty darn good to me and let Whitlock be the multiple inning/long guy and Andriese/Valdez as main middle guys for now. Taylor really needs sending to the alternate site. I'd love to see Basardo get a chance.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 26, 2021 6:03:22 GMT -5
This team needs some pitching help, but as long as they keep winning games they are buying time to sort it out.
My question is, Whitlock has been a revelation and I get stretching him out, do we think they plan on starting him later this year? The way they are using him in the bullpen isn’t the best bullpen usage for him for team wins today, but if the longterm plan is to make him start this year then it could be the best thing to do.
The way I see it, they need better performances from 2 of their rotation spots (Richards and Perez), one of these needs to be highish end, and 4 bullpen spots (Ottavino, Hernandez, Taylor and Brice)... Ottavino is probably a stretch to put on the list and the one I expect to self correct. Others could as well but expecting them all too is probably wishful thinking. That being said there is some depth, in minors that could help, but there are also probably future injuries to think of.
This takes me back to the Whitlock question. If he’s going to be a starter and you include Houck and Sale’s return then the bullpen is the biggest need by far.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2021 10:29:00 GMT -5
Brasier hasn't even begun to throw off a mound yet, per Speier, so don't count on him anytime soon.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2021 11:33:15 GMT -5
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Post by kingstephanos on Apr 26, 2021 12:00:38 GMT -5
My question is, Whitlock has been a revelation and I get stretching him out, do we think they plan on starting him later this year? The way they are using him in the bullpen isn’t the best bullpen usage for him for team wins today, but if the longterm plan is to make him start this year then it could be the best thing to do. www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/why-doesnt-red-sox-garrett-whitlock-pitch-more-let-dave-bush-explainSome of us have mentioned it in the Garrett Whitlock thread... but a young player that's never pitched above AA ball till now - coming off recent Tommy John surgery (in 2019) and an extended pitching hiatus due to the pandemic (in 2020) - should be treated with kid gloves, not stretched out for the major league rotation and thrown completely into the deep end. Remember, previous Tommy John surgery increases the likelihood of going under the knife a second time for MLB players.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 26, 2021 12:20:05 GMT -5
My question is, Whitlock has been a revelation and I get stretching him out, do we think they plan on starting him later this year? The way they are using him in the bullpen isn’t the best bullpen usage for him for team wins today, but if the longterm plan is to make him start this year then it could be the best thing to do. www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/why-doesnt-red-sox-garrett-whitlock-pitch-more-let-dave-bush-explainSome of us have mentioned it in the Garrett Whitlock thread... but a young player that's never pitched above AA ball till now - coming off recent Tommy John surgery (in 2019) and an extended pitching hiatus due to the pandemic (in 2020) - should be treated with kid gloves, not stretched out for the major league rotation and thrown completely into the deep end. Remember, previous Tommy John surgery increases the likelihood of going under the knife a second time for MLB players. I'll agree with this (obviously), but also throw in that it's a good thing that "starting" no longer means pitching until you're ineffective, and that we're beyond the outmoded belief that someone who can't get you through seven innings should just go to the bullpen. If Sale, Eovaldi, and Rodriguez are all healthy at some pont then there probably isn't a starter role available that fits Whitlock, but it's not crazy to envision a situation where Whitock being a three-to-four inning pitcher on regular rotation is the best thing both for his recovery and development as well as for the Boston staff overall.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 26, 2021 12:52:56 GMT -5
www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/why-doesnt-red-sox-garrett-whitlock-pitch-more-let-dave-bush-explainSome of us have mentioned it in the Garrett Whitlock thread... but a young player that's never pitched above AA ball till now - coming off recent Tommy John surgery (in 2019) and an extended pitching hiatus due to the pandemic (in 2020) - should be treated with kid gloves, not stretched out for the major league rotation and thrown completely into the deep end. Remember, previous Tommy John surgery increases the likelihood of going under the knife a second time for MLB players. I'll agree with this (obviously), but also throw in that it's a good thing that "starting" no longer means pitching until you're ineffective, and that we're beyond the outmoded belief that someone who can't get you through seven innings should just go to the bullpen. If Sale, Eovaldi, and Rodriguez are all healthy at some pont then there probably isn't a starter role available that fits Whitlock, but it's not crazy to envision a situation where Whitock being a three-to-four inning pitcher on regular rotation is the best thing both for his recovery and development as well as for the Boston staff overall. Completely agree!! Another way of explaining the future use of pitchers and how they are viewed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2021 7:18:22 GMT -5
Bush magic?
These are xwOBA / wOBA.
Ottavino .407 / .422 (through 4/15) .214 / .137 (starting 4/17)
Brice .428 / .377 (through 4/18) .256 / .314 (starting 4/21
Darwinzon .425 / .401 (through 4/22) .029 / .126 (starting 4/29)
Taylor .459 / .451 (through 4/24) .146 / .221 (4/30, his first non-terrible outing of more than 1 hitter)
A bit different, Andriese:
.291 / .329 (through 4/15) .205 / .160 (starting 4/17)
Of course, Barnes and Whitlock have been great all year. Valdez was .181 / .113 until his last outing, where he was .329 / .429, and hasn't pitched in 6 days. Hmm ...
Next up: Sawamura, .387 / .338 with no clear pattern. Whereas all of the above just jump off the page.
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Post by manfred on May 1, 2021 8:48:31 GMT -5
Bush magic?
These are xwOBA / wOBA.
Ottavino .407 / .422 (through 4/15) .214 / .137 (starting 4/17)
Brice .428 / .377 (through 4/18) .256 / .314 (starting 4/21
Darwinzon .425 / .401 (through 4/22) .029 / .126 (starting 4/29)
Taylor .459 / .451 (through 4/24) .146 / .221 (4/30, his first non-terrible outing of more than 1 hitter)
A bit different, Andriese:
.291 / .329 (through 4/15) .205 / .160 (starting 4/17)
Of course, Barnes and Whitlock have been great all year. Valdez was .181 / .113 until his last outing, where he was .329 / .429, and hasn't pitched in 6 days. Hmm ...
Next up: Sawamura, .387 / .338 with no clear pattern. Whereas all of the above just jump off the page.
Thus far, Bush might be MVP... most valuable personnel. It is hard not to credit him with some incredible in-season adjustments, and I imagine he was at least part of the conversations before the year with guys like Barnes that appear to be transformative.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 1, 2021 9:09:33 GMT -5
I'll agree with this (obviously), but also throw in that it's a good thing that "starting" no longer means pitching until you're ineffective, and that we're beyond the outmoded belief that someone who can't get you through seven innings should just go to the bullpen. If Sale, Eovaldi, and Rodriguez are all healthy at some pont then there probably isn't a starter role available that fits Whitlock, but it's not crazy to envision a situation where Whitock being a three-to-four inning pitcher on regular rotation is the best thing both for his recovery and development as well as for the Boston staff overall. Completely agree!! Another way of explaining the future use of pitchers and how they are viewed. Back in the 1970s and early 1980s when a AAA starter was brought up to the mlb they usually broke in as long relief and only moved to the rotation when a spot opened up from injury or ineffectiveness. It was way less often that a young AAA came up and was plugged into the rotation (at least that was how it was on the Red Sox and other teams I followed). Maybe this like many things has come full circle.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2021 16:06:12 GMT -5
Completely agree!! Another way of explaining the future use of pitchers and how they are viewed. Back in the 1970s and early 1980s when a AAA starter was brought up to the mlb they usually broke in as long relief and only moved to the rotation when a spot opened up from injury or ineffectiveness. It was way less often that a young AAA came up and was plugged into the rotation (at least that was how it was on the Red Sox and other teams I followed). Maybe this like many things has come full circle. I'm not sure how widespread this was, but it was the practice of Earl Weaver, widely regarded as the best manager in MLB.
In 1965 Jim Palmer made the O's out of ST as a 19-year old, from the Northern League; his first four appearances and 7 of his first 8 were in relief, the exception being the second game of a double-header. He went into the rotation because last year's ROY runner-up Wally Bunker was being hammered (8.68 ERA, 1.045 OPS allowed). Bunker pitched three times in relief over the next 25 days, allowing 1 hit in 7 IP, went back into the rotation and had a 2.92 ERA the rest of the way. (This was their masterful pitching coach George Bamberger working his magic.) But Dave McNally started struggling (6.61 over 4 starts, .969 OPS) and he went to the pen when Bunker returned. That combo gave Palmer a chance to start 6 games, and he was good (3.10, .612). Bamberger straightened McNally out and Palmer went back to the pen for good.
One of the reasons I looked all that up is that my Dad always told the story that he had seen Palmer pitch in Fenway as a rookie and was totally unimpressed. And when I say "always," I mean, anytime a Sox player was unimpressive at first and then turned out to be good! It just occurred to me to check b-Ref to see if this story made any sense.
And it seemed dubious. My Dad didn't go to many games back then as he had just bought the business he had been running as manager. I was going to summer day camp that year when I was 11. Could it possibly be the case that one of those 6 overall good starts was a bad one on a Saturday afternoon in Fenway? That's the only time when I'd be away from the house and Dad wouldn't be at work or at home.
Well, yes! June 12. Palmer actually had a great first 3 innings, including fanning the side in the first, and against the unexpectedly potent Sox lineup (the Sox went 21-21 in April and May that year and then 41-79 the rest of the way). He gave up a 2-run bomb to Felix Mantilla in the 4th and didn't retire anyone in the 6th and would have allowed 3 more runs if Yaz hadn't presumably fallen down and gotten thrown out at home trying to score from 2B on a Mantilla double (yes, with 0 outs after Palmer had given up W, 1B, 2B, 2B)! This was in the day when only going 5 IP was somewhat shameful, and I guess it was the last impression, not the first, that stuck with my Dad. Especially since any Sox fan would be hoping that the strong start to the outing would turn out to be a mirage.
Pitching for the Sox, and faring even less well, so that my Dad didn't remember him ... a rookie named Jim Lonborg.
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Post by hairps on May 2, 2021 10:14:54 GMT -5
Bush magic? These are xwOBA / wOBA. Valdez was .181 / .113 until his last outing, where he was .329 / .429, and hasn't pitched in 6 days. Hmm ... I'll be interested to see if anything comes of this. The combination of elite horizontal movement and above-average vertical movement on his sinker looks to make it a legit weapon. Old friend Chris Mazza is a similar guy per that leaderboard, though with less velo on the pitch. News flash...the Rays also know what they're doing.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 2, 2021 10:54:56 GMT -5
What's the deal with Sawamura's split?.....It's apparently just a few ticks off his FB so it doesn't have the deception offered by a speed change. And, how much does it move?...hard to tell via tv. It does not appear to me, on admittedly little viewing, to be regularly missing bats. It's the first split that I am aware of with such great velocity. With most pitchers, the grip itself deprives the pitch of power. Maybe Sawamura's grip is different.
A lot of current Sox pitchers throw an effective change and it seems that baseball as a whole is putting more emphasis in disrupting batter timing. I wonder if dropping velo from Sawamura's split would give it more movement as well as deception.
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Post by soxstan96 on May 10, 2021 12:09:25 GMT -5
5/10 bullpen trust rankings
Complete confidence:
1. Barnes
Strong confidence:
2. Whitlock 3. Hernandez
Average/waining confidence:
4. Valdez 5. Andriese 6. Sawamura
Little confidence:
7. Ottavino
No confidence/get 'em off the team:
8. Taylor 9. Brice
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Post by iakovos11 on May 10, 2021 12:26:21 GMT -5
5/10 bullpen trust rankings Complete confidence: 1. Barnes Strong confidence: 2. Whitlock 3. Hernandez Average/waining confidence: 4. Valdez 5. Andriese 6. Sawamura Little confidence: 7. Ottavino No confidence/get 'em .... off the team: 8. Taylor 9. Brice Edited for language. Completely unnecessary F-Bomb.
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Post by bcsox on May 10, 2021 13:44:17 GMT -5
1. Barnes
2. Whitlock 3. Andriese
4. Hernandez
5. Valdez
6. Sawamura
7. Workman
8. Ottavino 9.Taylor 10. Brice
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Post by Coreno on May 10, 2021 17:12:59 GMT -5
Workman above Ottavino is complete nonsense at the moment
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2021 17:29:33 GMT -5
People are being very slow to update their views on Taylor (3.09 ERA since April 5, 3.42 FIP overall). Cora, at least, has demonstrated he has way more trust in him than this board does.
Not that I'd put him at the top of the list here, but people are still lumping him in with ol' Beanball Brice whereas IMO he's way closer to the Sawamura/Valdez middle tier.
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2021 21:19:36 GMT -5
People are being very slow to update their views on Taylor (3.09 ERA since April 5, 3.42 FIP overall). Cora, at least, has demonstrated he has way more trust in him than this board does. Not that I'd put him at the top of the list here, but people are still lumping him in with ol' Beanball Brice whereas IMO he's way closer to the Sawamura/Valdez middle tier. Some credit is due for being better than Brice, but RHH still have a 1.151 OPS against Taylor. That's down from what I think was around 1.300 at one point, but still MVP level. With a BABIP of .462, which is as unsustainable for a pitcher as it is for a hitter. It's like his 6.39 ERA - looks terrible, but if you throw out the first two games he looks so much better. Maybe that's a bit arbitrary, but his peripherals look good overall (though the walks are a bit high), and that combined with his performance over his last 12 appearances make me feel pretty good about him.
We could be even more arbitrary with the endpoints, too: since 4/10 (all but his first three appearances) he has a 2.79 ERA. In his last six he has a 0.00 ERA and a 2.18 FIP.
All in all, I think the length of this bullpen is an unexpected strength. Brice aside, I feel at least okay with all of them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 10, 2021 22:16:45 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,223
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Post by radiohix on May 10, 2021 22:58:35 GMT -5
His last outing: Walks the LHH 7th hitter 8th hitter launches a rocket, ends up a very lucky double play Walks the 9th hitter At some point while pitching to the LHH leadoff hitter, Remy or Eck said "Taylor hasn't thrown a competitive pitch yet". Manages two phenomenal pitches after that comment to pull off the strikeout. He actually walks the RHH 7th hitter in Severino (usually bats 5th vs LHP) I won't call a 91.9 mph liner a "rocket" Then he dominates a LHH (Cedric Mullins) who sports the 3rd highest avg (.380) and OPS (1.016) vs LHP in MLB which is something he's been doing at elite level so far this season (1.05 FIP). Again, I don't wanna sound like a broken record but we're talking about tiny sample sizes but here's something we could draw some conclusions of: Josh Taylor's Fastball velocity chartsAs you can see, there's a significant jump in velocity from his firsts outing and it's trending up (already passed his COVID altered 2020 season). My guess is (cause we're all guessing at this point 😅) he'll be fine.
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Post by manfred on May 11, 2021 9:22:36 GMT -5
The trust-o-meter is relative, though. I mean, do I trust, say, Sawamura closing? No, sir. But you can’t have 5 Barneses. So if we assume virtually all bullpens are shaped like a pyramid down from their closer, how much do I trust each guy relative to his spot? I feel pretty good, really.
It is more a Cora trust-o-meter. That is, any bullpen is going to have a Brice, Taylor, or Valdez at the tail end (hell, many bullpens should be so lucky!). So the question is really how often does Cora risk up-slotting guys.... say, bringing Taylor in late in a one-run game?
But last thing: we can’t have it both ways.... we can’t keep Barnes’s appearances down, Whitlock healthy, etc., and *not* at times risking those upslots. There may be days in long stretches when Ottavino or Sawamura have to close and we white knuckle it. Or when Brice pitches with a single-digit run differential.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 11, 2021 10:05:38 GMT -5
I trust Barnes and Whitlock and no one else. So basically, my trust meter is low.
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Post by Jimmy on May 11, 2021 23:45:08 GMT -5
05/11 Bullpen Trust Meter
Tier 1:
1. Matt Barnes
Tier 2:
2. Garrett Whitlock (-1 Tier)
Tier 3:
3. Matt Andriese (-1 Tier) 4. Adam Ottovino (+1) 5. Hirokazu Sawamura (+1) 6. D. Hernandez (-2) 7. Phillips Valdez
Tier 4:
8. Josh Taylor (+1) 9. Austin Brice (-1)
Tough stretch for the pen.
• Whitlock drops a tier due to a rough patch
• Andriese drops a tier due to a tough week, but nobody did enough to surpass him at #3
• Darwinzon has to quit it with the walks. We need him throwing his nasty stuff without the walks
• Josh Taylor finally breaks out of the #9 spot. Please stop using him, or even warming him up, in 1 run games
• I’ll Venmo $5 to whoever can tell me why the hell we aren’t using Valdez. He’s low on the trust meter because we haven’t really seen him, but he’s been fine this year and if he was pitching he’d certainly be in the conversation to pass some of these tier 3 guys
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Post by iakovos11 on May 12, 2021 6:40:20 GMT -5
A couple more outings like last night and Sawamura is going to be the set-up guy. His split finger in nasty.
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