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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2021 9:39:03 GMT -5
The trust list is short.
Barnes has been outstanding.
Whitlock I trust but he's somebody who can only pitch once every three or four days so he can't be an 8th inning option.
Andriese I trust somewhat because he throws strikes and doesn't beat himself. You don't have to worry about him walking the leadoff batter in a 1 run game or a tie game. He might give up a HR or get hit, but he makes the other team beat him.
That's about it for my circle of trust.
With a chance to approach the circle is:
Sawamura. He has the stuff to do so and lately he's been getting beat with the HR ball rather than the walks, so that's heartening in that he's challenging the hitter, and I think there's a period of adjustment time that he's entitled to to smooth out the rough edges. He's got the room for improvement.
This one might be crazy, but I think Josh Taylor is starting to look better. Maybe he just needed time to get himself back to where he was in 2019? That might sound nuts, so I'll wait and see on that, but at least I have some hope for that. The Josh Taylor of 2019 didn't beat himself. He made the opposition try to do so.
Phillips Valdez. I was never a huge fan of his, thought of him as marginal and lucky in 2020, but when he has pitched, he has looked pretty good, and I think he at least deserves a shot at seeing higher leverage action.
Relievers I have to close my eyes to watch:
Ottavino. The leadoff walks are maddening and he doesn't have good enough stuff anymore where he can make up for the smaller margin of error. If he does challenge the hitter he can get burned. I don't think the Sox can keep going to him in close games. Unless his slider is working perfectly, he's trouble waiting to happen.
Hernandez. The walks are killers. Unlike Ottavino, his stuff is good enough to challenge hitters and still blow the ball past them, but too often that doesn't happen.
Why is he still on the roster?
Brice needs to go. Hopefully soon. They need another bat off the bench. Eventually Santana comes up and Cordero goes down, but they'll need the spot for Duran who will force the issue sooner or later.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 13, 2021 15:21:21 GMT -5
The trust list is short. Barnes has been outstanding. Whitlock I trust but he's somebody who can only pitch once every three or four days so he can't be an 8th inning option. Andriese I trust somewhat because he throws strikes and doesn't beat himself. You don't have to worry about him walking the leadoff batter in a 1 run game or a tie game. He might give up a HR or get hit, but he makes the other team beat him. That's about it for my circle of trust. With a chance to approach the circle is: Sawamura. He has the stuff to do so and lately he's been getting beat with the HR ball rather than the walks, so that's heartening in that he's challenging the hitter, and I think there's a period of adjustment time that he's entitled to to smooth out the rough edges. He's got the room for improvement. This one might be crazy, but I think Josh Taylor is starting to look better. Maybe he just needed time to get himself back to where he was in 2019? That might sound nuts, so I'll wait and see on that, but at least I have some hope for that. The Josh Taylor of 2019 didn't beat himself. He made the opposition try to do so. Phillips Valdez. I was never a huge fan of his, thought of him as marginal and lucky in 2020, but when he has pitched, he has looked pretty good, and I think he at least deserves a shot at seeing higher leverage action. Relievers I have to close my eyes to watch: Ottavino. The leadoff walks are maddening and he doesn't have good enough stuff anymore where he can make up for the smaller margin of error. If he does challenge the hitter he can get burned. I don't think the Sox can keep going to him in close games. Unless his slider is working perfectly, he's trouble waiting to happen. Hernandez. The walks are killers. Unlike Ottavino, his stuff is good enough to challenge hitters and still blow the ball past them, but too often that doesn't happen. Why is he still on the roster? Brice needs to go. Hopefully soon. They need another bat off the bench. Eventually Santana comes up and Cordero goes down, but they'll need the spot for Duran who will force the issue sooner or later. Has durans contact skills went that far down since his new swing adjustment?? Where before I thought he could be a .300 with 10-12 hrs and 40 sbs, does his new approach or swing make him a .260. 30 hrs 20 sb guy? Curious on reports or thoughts. Additional question: have aaa baseballs changed or just mlb baseballs? Basically I’m asking if contact skills are down but power is up, BUT then he moves up and the baseball suppresses his power more... do we have the everyday player we all hope we have. ( I won’t lie. I’m hoping for an improvement from Jbj hitting. And upside of an Ellsbury. ( which I know might be a bit much). But at least an everyday player for Sox.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 13, 2021 15:56:14 GMT -5
So I think they touched on this on the Future Projection podcast - I THINK the AAA baseballs are the ones they ordered for 2020 that never got used, and therefore are the 2019 juiced ones.
But as I type that, I find myself wondering what they used at the Alt Site then.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 14, 2021 6:28:21 GMT -5
Excluding Whitlock who has his own role (and whose Statcast numbers ...
Right now, who are 2nd and 3rd in wOBA, xwOBA, and Win Probability Added?
Phillips Valdez and Eduard Bazardo.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2021 7:52:12 GMT -5
Excluding Whitlock who has his own role (and whose Statcast numbers ... Right now, who are 2nd and 3rd in wOBA, xwOBA, and Win Probability Added? Phillips Valdez and Eduard Bazardo.
Well those four are positive and the other 7 relievers (includes Houck's 1 relief appearance) are negative, so... yeah. Meanwhile, Valdez has the third-lowest gmLI, only ahead of Brice and Bazardo (who has only even been on the roster for games with low LI). The usage of Valdez is confounding to me. Again, not that he should be closing, but the reluctance to put him into anything but mop-up work is so strange.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2021 6:40:56 GMT -5
The Sox are 23rd in MLB in set-up Win Probability Added (all relief minus closer). It's already cost them a win.
For teams that have changed closers, I've used the guy doing the job now.
Team SUW TOR 2.63 NYY 1.95 CLE 1.64 OAK 1.25 SDP 1.10 CHC 1.05 STL 0.58 WSN 0.36 TBR 0.25 PIT 0.03 BAL -0.01 LAA -0.10 LAD -0.35 NYM -0.40 TEX -0.45 MIL -0.48 PHI -0.51 CHW -0.65 CIN -0.66 KCR -0.68 ATL -0.88 SEA -1.34 BOS -1.35 HOU -1.41 ARI -1.69 DET -1.99 COL -2.06 SFG -2.10 MIA -2.24 MIN -3.51
In context: in WPA, they are 5th in offense, 6th in starting pitching, and 1st in closer.
No surprise: the three relievers with the worst WPA are the the three with the highest leverage: Andriese, Hernandez, Ottavino.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2021 7:11:51 GMT -5
Now, in retrospect, this is quite baffling.
Pitchers added in the offseason currently in MLB or AAA, or prominent in AA:
Richards Ottavino Andriese Sawamura Whitlock Schreiber Brennan
Ort Gossett McCarthy Carasiti Grotz German Winckowski
Really? 14 RHP and 0 LHP?
I liked the Sawamura addition but I had thought that roster spot would be filled with an extra LHR. Given that, adding 7 guys to AAA via waiver claims, mlfa, and ml Rule 5, and all RHP?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 16, 2021 7:15:24 GMT -5
Ottavino’s career bb per 9 is 4.1 I doubt he’s going to change. You are what you are.
Two weeks inAAA for Darwinson where he’s challenged to just throw strikes might help. Big league meal money and travel is enticing. Not to mention salary.
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Post by patford on May 16, 2021 7:46:42 GMT -5
Ottavino’s career bb per 9 is 4.1 I doubt he’s going to change. You are what you are. Two weeks inAAA for Darwinson where he’s challenged to just throw strikes might help. Big league meal money and travel is enticing. Not to mention salary. Do you think that's it? That he is attempting to be too fine because he's afraid to challenge hitters? My impression is he can't throw a strike to save his life. It's very discouraging. At this point he's almost useless and the best way to straighten him out might be regular work. He needs to be sent down not as a punishment but because he needs to be throwing a lot and he's just too big a risk right now to use in any role aside from games which are blow-outs. And even there we have seen him come in and load the bases with walks.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 16, 2021 7:53:41 GMT -5
Ottavino’s career bb per 9 is 4.1 I doubt he’s going to change. You are what you are. Two weeks inAAA for Darwinson where he’s challenged to just throw strikes might help. Big league meal money and travel is enticing. Not to mention salary. Do you think that's it? That he is attempting to be too fine because he's afraid to challenge hitters? My impression is he can't throw a strike to save his life. It's very discouraging. At this point he's almost useless and the best way to straighten him out might be regular work. He needs to be sent down not as a punishment but because he needs to be throwing a lot and he's just too big a risk right now to use in any role aside from games which are blow-outs. And even there we have seen him come in and load the bases with walks.
That’s my fear too. Just wild. I think he can improve. He’s awfully young. Can help in lower leverage spots with his stuff.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 16, 2021 8:02:24 GMT -5
Was trying to think of a positive comp for Darwinson. Andrew Miller walked 215 in his first 359 big league innings. 5.4 per nine. Andrew credits Bobby V in 2012 for helping to turn his career around. Don’t want to bring Bobby V back. But, there is hope.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 16, 2021 9:20:33 GMT -5
Now, in retrospect, this is quite baffling.
Pitchers added in the offseason currently in MLB or AAA, or prominent in AA:
Richards Ottavino Andriese Sawamura Whitlock Schreiber Brennan
Ort Gossett McCarthy Carasiti Grotz German Winckowski
Really? 14 RHP and 0 LHP?
I liked the Sawamura addition but I had thought that roster spot would be filled with an extra LHR. Given that, adding 7 guys to AAA via waiver claims, mlfa, and ml Rule 5, and all RHP?
I’d imagine some of those guys have reverse splits (Whitlock, Andriese, Sawamura). I wonder if the 3 batter minimum rule has anything to do with this occurrence- focus on acquiring a couple righties who have good changeups/splitters and reverse platoon splits to almost function as a modern day equivalent to a LOOGY. Maybe Whitlock doesn’t fall under that plan as I’m sure they didn’t think the changeup was this good but he’s been unhittable against lefties. Andriese has been better against lefties his entire career. I’d imagine with that splitter Sawa has been good against lefties his entire career- the results this season kind of bare that out (all 4 homers allowed against righties, who are torching him)
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 23, 2021 11:19:14 GMT -5
Josh Taylor has quietly turned his season around. In his last 10 appearances starting April 30th
7 1/3 IP 2 H 0 R 0 ER 2 BB 7 K
Also, I was shocked we brought Darwinson in with bases loaded and one out. K’d Harper easily. He hit Hoskins but it wasn’t an awful pitch. Batter left his elbow out. K’d next guy despite getting squeezed. He over-reacted to HBP. Unp was gonna show him. Lord I hate umps.
I was at game last night and the lefties and Ottavino looked good. Gotta build that bridge to Barnes. Matt was a bit off last night. But, got the job done. Only downer was Valdez. He was terrible
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Post by Addam603 on May 27, 2021 9:08:48 GMT -5
Josh Taylor hasn’t let up a run since April 24th and hasn’t let up a hit since May 6th. He’s not striking a lot of guys out but he’s keeping them off the base paths and it’s working for him.
Ottavino’s numbers over his last 15 games: 1.93 ERA, 15/8 K/BB rate in 14 innings. Still too many walks but he’s been the setup guy they thought over the past few weeks.
Darwinzon over the last 30 days (10 games): 2.16 ERA, 16 Ks in 8.1 innings. .156 BAA. Still 7 walks in those 8.1 innings though. Typical Darwinzon.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2021 9:33:51 GMT -5
Taylor since 4/30: 7.1-2-0-0-3-7. And 2 of the walks came in one game. K rate is fine - it seems worse than it is on the game log because they use him to face LHB at the end of innings a lot, so even with the 3-batter rule, he's faced 1 or 2 batters in 4 of those 10 games.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 6, 2021 22:08:46 GMT -5
Just bumping this for the lulz on them HAWT TAKES.
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 7, 2021 8:28:40 GMT -5
Tier 1:
1. Matt Barnes
Tier 2:
2. Adam Ottovino 3. Garrett Whitlock 4. Josh Taylor
Tier 3:
5. Hirokazu Sawamura 6. D. Hernandez
Tier 4:
7. Phillips Valdez 8. Matt Andriese
Tier 5:
9. Brandon Workman
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Post by patford on Jun 7, 2021 8:32:21 GMT -5
Tier 1: 1. Matt Barnes Tier 2: 2. Adam Ottovino 3. Garrett Whitlock 4. Josh Taylor Tier 3: 5. Hirokazu Sawamura 6. D. Hernandez Tier 4: 7. Phillips Valdez 8. Matt Andriese Tier 5: 9. Brandon Workman
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2021 8:34:58 GMT -5
Tier 1: Josh Taylor
Tier 2: 1990 Dennis Eckersley 2003 Mariano Rivera Chris Sale against Manny Machado with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in the deciding game of the World Series
Tier 3: Matt Barnes
Etc
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 7, 2021 8:37:11 GMT -5
Tier 1: 1. Matt Barnes Tier 2: 2. Adam Ottovino 3. Garrett Whitlock 4. Josh Taylor Tier 3: 5. Hirokazu Sawamura 6. D. Hernandez Tier 4: 7. Phillips Valdez 8. Matt Andriese Tier 5: 9. Brandon Workman accurate Andriese turning back into a pumpkin saddens me. Back to the pure long man role for him
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Post by patford on Jun 7, 2021 8:46:42 GMT -5
If Sawamura can begin to consistently throw strikes he's going to be a big problem for opposing teams. Actually he and Ottavino have both been really good but hard to watch due to the BB issues. Hernandez is similar but even harder to watch. The BB issue is an even bigger one v. TB and the Yankees. Both of those teams like to stand at the plate with the bat on the shoulder until the opposing pitcher is in a bad count. www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/view/batting/teams/7
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 8, 2021 11:39:46 GMT -5
If Sawamura can begin to consistently throw strikes he's going to be a big problem for opposing teams. Actually he and Ottavino have both been really good but hard to watch due to the BB issues. Hernandez is similar but even harder to watch. The BB issue is an even bigger one v. TB and the Yankees. Both of those teams like to stand at the plate with the bat on the shoulder until the opposing pitcher is in a bad count. www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/view/batting/teams/7 Just a reminder that on June 9, 2013, Koji Uehara had an ERA of 2.59 (Sawamura is now at 2.63) and was not yet the closer. He was unscored on in his first 7 or 8 games, more human from April 21-June 9, and then gave up only 3 runs the rest of the season. www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=ueharko01&t=p&year=2013
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Post by ramireja on Jun 8, 2021 13:14:29 GMT -5
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Post by patford on Jun 8, 2021 13:32:11 GMT -5
Tier 1: Josh Taylor Tier 2: 1990 Dennis Eckersley 2003 Mariano Rivera Chris Sale against Manny Machado with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in the deciding game of the World Series Tier 3: Matt Barnes Etc You misspelled Koji.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 8, 2021 13:39:15 GMT -5
This is fantastic to see!!! If they can just pull a Barnes and trust their stuff more and stop the BB.
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