SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by jdb on Apr 10, 2021 12:27:10 GMT -5
Am I reading this situation right? He’s probably used out the pen exclusively this year since he can’t go down then comes into next spring a favorite for the rotation?
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 10, 2021 12:34:24 GMT -5
Blood on the floor... yanksgoyard.com/2021/04/05/yankees-rookie-pitchers-traded-widener-whitlock/They lost seven players in the Rule 5, but they've also traded talent they could use. I'd wager that Whitlock will loom larger and larger in fan discussions. I watched Kluber pitch and he is not the same guy. Fastball hovered around 89-90, and the breaking pitch is a shadow of what it was. Ah, you fansided me. Their sites are the worst kind of click-bait. And since they have all unique names it's tough to know until you click. But to the point - let's hope these guys these trades really hurt the Yankees as their payroll and post-Steinbrenner intelligent team building should make them competitive for a long time. Here is a similar, but older, SB Nation article. www.pinstripealley.com/2020/2/4/21121544/yankees-trades-littell-mateo-solak-smith-drury-gray
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 10, 2021 13:33:02 GMT -5
I like to think about Whitlock's addition this way: The MFY front office left him unprotected to leave room for the addition of Gardner's corpse. I know it's inaccurate but I love to look at it this way 😁
|
|
|
Post by pedey on Apr 24, 2021 10:53:56 GMT -5
Will Whitlock be stretched out a starter at all this year? Or maybe to spot start? Or more likely get him a full year in long-relief so he can build up strength, longevity, and just get another full season under his belt?
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Apr 24, 2021 11:07:49 GMT -5
Will Whitlock be stretched out a starter at all this year? Or maybe to spot start? Or more likely get him a full year in long-relief so he can build up strength, longevity, and just get another full season under his belt? That is THE question. I can see it go either way. I personally want a look at him in the rotation down the stretch but feel the redaox will be cautious?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
Member is Online
|
Post by jimoh on Apr 24, 2021 11:13:45 GMT -5
Isn't part of the problem with Whitlock starting, as with Houck, that he is mainly throwing only two pitches now?
|
|
|
Post by kingstephanos on Apr 24, 2021 11:47:58 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure the reason why Whitlock won't be stretched out this year is because he had Tommy John surgery in the recent past and a missed season due to the pandemic.
I get the eagerness to see him start for the big league club, but he's no doubt on a pitch count limit - which should help his longterm future (over any short term gains for the Red Sox in 2021)
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2021 0:35:40 GMT -5
Whitlock has become the second pitcher in MLB history to jump from AA to MLB at the start of a season and begin his career with games totaling 13+ scoreless innings (and no inherited runners allowed).
(Joe Smith, who started his career with 15.1 scoreless innings over 17 outings for the 2007 Mets, came in with 2 outs and the bases full in his 3rd game and allowed a run to score, and that's really on him. So this is removing a bogus candidate rather than cherry-picking to make the feat more impressive.)
Aaron Crow's first 13 games for the 2011 Royals had a 15.1 8 0 0 5 15 line.
Two other guys had such a streak at the start of the season after pitching in AAA or the equivalent the year before -- Bunny Hearn (17.1 IP) for the Braves in 1926, and Kevin Cameron for the Padres in 2007 (16.1). Cameron had 15 SO and 15 BB.
Whitlock is the 40th guy to start his career with scoreless outings totaling 13+ innings (ignoring inherited runners), but 14 of those guys did it over 2 seasons (or more). He's got the 7th highest IP/G (5th over a single season), highest K/9 (probably 3rd or 4th if you adjust for league rates) and 10th best walk rate (7th for a single season).
Of course nobody has done this after missing the previous year and a half with an injury.
The unique combo of TJ surgery and the Rule 5 draft means that very few pitchers have debuted in MLB with his lack of both AAA and recent experience. And it's already one of the most impressive scoreless starts to a career, period. The only one that looks better is Ramon Ramirez for the Rockies in 2006, who after opening the season with 1 game in AAA, had a 15.1 6 0 0 2 20 line over his first 11 games.
(Ramirez's streak ended against the Dodgers on May 15 on a tie-breaking 7th inning single by Nomar, after Ramirez had walked the pitcher to lead off the inning and given up a GB single. They then brought in LOOGY Ray King to face J.D. Drew with 1 out, and he doubled and pinned two inherited runners on him. Takashi Saito got the save for LA, and that's all the past or future Red Sox that appear in the box score.)
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 29, 2021 1:39:43 GMT -5
Will Whitlock be stretched out a starter at all this year? Or maybe to spot start? Or more likely get him a full year in long-relief so he can build up strength, longevity, and just get another full season under his belt? That is THE question. I can see it go either way. I personally want a look at him in the rotation down the stretch but feel the redaox will be cautious? I say stick with what's working. Maybe they can experiment next year in Spring Training, but for this season I like him out of the pen.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Apr 29, 2021 6:21:38 GMT -5
Even better -
|
|
|
Post by bcsox on Apr 29, 2021 9:47:36 GMT -5
I think Whitlock gets innings protection all year out of the pen. If he continues to pitch this well, and I think he will, it is going to be frustrating when one or two of the relievers go could, such as Ottavino and Darwizon, and we are clamoring for Whitlock to pitch say two out of three days, but I dont think the Sox will do it, and I certainly dont think they are going to put him in the rotation at any point. As to his future, starting next year, he seems to have been almost exclusively fastball, and changeup out of the pen. He had always been a starter until this year, so I imagine there was a third pitch somewhere, and I imagine he is not throwing it much because he is dominating with the two pitch combo out of the pen.
Can anyone give some detail on his third pitch and whether it is functional enough to get him into a starters role next year?
If there was an expansion draft tomorrow and you could only keep Houck or Whitlock, which way would you go?
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Apr 29, 2021 9:59:06 GMT -5
If there was an expansion draft tomorrow and you could only keep Houck or Whitlock, which way would you go? This is a delicious question. I'll go Whitlock.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 29, 2021 10:26:09 GMT -5
He had always been a starter until this year, so I imagine there was a third pitch somewhere, and I imagine he is not throwing it much because he is dominating with the two pitch combo out of the pen. Can anyone give some detail on his third pitch and whether it is functional enough to get him into a starters role next year? It's a slider. From the unupdated* Sox Prospects scouting report: * I say unupdated because it was written before GW learned his new changeup from Andriese and turned into a plus pitch instead of the "potential fringe-average offering" that got mentioned here.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 29, 2021 10:45:45 GMT -5
Yeah it's a slider and he's only thrown a handful of them.
Expect Houck vs. Whitlock to be a major discussion on a future podcast.
Here's another really good discussion question: Will the more important result of 2020 being an awful year be the number 4 pick in the Rule 4 draft or the Rule 5 draft? The entry draft pick will almost certainly be ranked higher in July, but based on what we know about draft pick bust rates versus what we know Whitlock at least is right now... you could make the case it's Whitlock. I don't think I would personally, but that we can even discuss that with a straight face is bonkers.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 29, 2021 10:50:06 GMT -5
How about a Houck/Whitlock piggyback 5th starter role come August.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,376
|
Post by cdj on Apr 29, 2021 10:52:09 GMT -5
It’s honestly probably safer to argue that it was more important for the rule 5 draft at this point. We are getting incredible major league results and he appears to be somebody we could stretch out next year
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 29, 2021 10:54:47 GMT -5
Yeah it's a slider and he's only thrown a handful of them. Expect Houck vs. Whitlock to be a major discussion on a future podcast. Here's another really good discussion question: Will the more important result of 2020 being an awful year be the number 4 pick in the Rule 4 draft or the Rule 5 draft? The entry draft pick will almost certainly be ranked higher in July, but based on what we know about draft pick bust rates versus what we know Whitlock at least is right now... you could make the case it's Whitlock. I don't think I would personally, but that we can even discuss that with a straight face is bonkers. I don’t follow college guys beyond what people here say so this is a question based on those conversations: if the Sox drafted, say, Rocker, would he definitely be ahead of Whitlock? It sounds like they both have mid-90s fb, with Rocker a bit up-and-down. And it at least appears Whitlock has at least one other plus pitch. I guess I just wonder how much more upside most of the guys being discussed could project. Are there guys (maybe besides Leiter) you see as definitely slotting ahead of him in your own rankings?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 29, 2021 10:59:54 GMT -5
I'm not speaking for anyone else, but I'd have any of the consensus Top Four (Leiter/Rocker/Lawlar/Mayer) #1 in the system.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 29, 2021 11:01:54 GMT -5
I'm not speaking for anyone else, but I'd have any of the consensus Top Four (Leiter/Rocker/Lawlar/Mayer) #1 in the system. Sorry but that's way too extreme.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 29, 2021 11:09:18 GMT -5
I'm not speaking for anyone else, but I'd have any of the consensus Top Four (Leiter/Rocker/Lawlar/Mayer) #1 in the system. Sorry but that's way too extreme. How do you figure? BA has four picks from the 2020 draft ahead of Casas (47th), and two more within ten spots. Torkelson and Martin are both in the Top 20. Four or five guys from a draft in the top 50 seems to be about the standard.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 29, 2021 11:21:46 GMT -5
Yeah I don't agree but that's not crazy. That said, we'll have half a season of data by then too.
I'd rank any of the top 4 ahead of Whitlock for now at least.
|
|
|
Post by bcsox on Apr 29, 2021 12:51:32 GMT -5
Rankings are subjective, and my own rankings have always differed from this Boards rankings mostly with regard to pitching because I believe firmly in TINSTAAPP. I would not have had Mata ranked ahead of Houck in this years rankings. I am a big Houck guy, but what we say from him in three starts last year and quickly this year, was elite stuff, with lots of swings and misses and better control of the zone than we had anticipated. What are the odds, even before injury, that Mata would have ever produced a sample size, even that small at the Major league level? Is it above 50%? I would say no, but like everything else, who knows.
Let's say the Sox draft Kumar, and then you have Kumar, Houck, Whitlock and Mata(assume the injury never happened in the system). Most assume that since Kumar was drafted in the top 4 picks of the draft and one of top two pitchers taken that his upside is no.1 starter. I dont agree with that, and most evaluators seem to think top shelf for Leiter and Kumar is solid no. 2 starter. Which would be phenomenal if either one reaches that projection.
Houck and Whitlock's upside to me seem similar in that they have maybe a shot at no. 3 starter but probably closer to no. 4 starter, with some believing that Houck will still land in the pen. Again assuming no injury to Mata, my guess is the general consensus on this board would be the following rankings:
Rocker
Mata Houck/Whitlock, take your pick.
My rankings would be: Whitlock/Houck, I cant pick between them,
Kumar Mata
Getting to the MLB and having success even in small samples that Houck and Whitlock have shown elevates them to me, well over guys like Kumar and Mata, as it takes out the many variables that may occur in Kumar and Mata on the way to the majors, such as injury, flameout, not being able to get hitters out a AA, AAA, or then MLB level, loss of a pitch, control issues, and so many other things that derail young pitchers.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 29, 2021 12:57:37 GMT -5
Yeah I don't agree but that's not crazy. That said, we'll have half a season of data by then too. I'd rank any of the top 4 ahead of Whitlock for now at least. 4 guys ahead of future HoFer Garrett Whitlock who won't allow his first run until 2025 (only because he's experimenting with a gyro)?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 29, 2021 12:58:48 GMT -5
Rankings are subjective, and my own rankings have always differed from this Boards rankings mostly with regard to pitching because I believe firmly in TINSTAAPP. I would not have had Mata ranked ahead of Houck in this years rankings. I am a big Houck guy, but what we say from him in three starts last year and quickly this year, was elite stuff, with lots of swings and misses and better control of the zone than we had anticipated. What are the odds, even before injury, that Mata would have ever produced a sample size, even that small at the Major league level? Is it above 50%? I would say no, but like everything else, who knows. Let's say the Sox draft Kumar, and then you have Kumar, Houck, Whitlock and Mata(assume the injury never happened in the system). Most assume that since Kumar was drafted in the top 4 picks of the draft and one of top two pitchers taken that his upside is no.1 starter. I dont agree with that, and most evaluators seem to think top shelf for Leiter and Kumar is solid no. 2 starter. Which would be phenomenal if either one reaches that projection. Houck and Whitlock's upside to me seem similar in that they have maybe a shot at no. 3 starter but probably closer to no. 4 starter, with some believing that Houck will still land in the pen. Again assuming no injury to Mata, my guess is the general consensus on this board would be the following rankings: Rocker Mata Houck/Whitlock, take your pick. My rankings would be: Whitlock/Houck, I cant pick between them, Kumar Mata Getting to the MLB and having success even in small samples that Houck and Whitlock have shown elevates them to me, well over guys like Kumar and Mata, as it takes out the many variables that may occur in Kumar and Mata on the way to the majors, such as injury, flameout, not being able to get hitters out a AA, AAA, or then MLB level, loss of a pitch, control issues, and so many other things that derail young pitchers. At the risk of giving away too much, Mata falls out of that tier next week. Not just the TJ but a history of being unable to stay healthy.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2021 13:23:05 GMT -5
Yeah it's a slider and he's only thrown a handful of them. Expect Houck vs. Whitlock to be a major discussion on a future podcast.
Here's another really good discussion question: Will the more important result of 2020 being an awful year be the number 4 pick in the Rule 4 draft or the Rule 5 draft? The entry draft pick will almost certainly be ranked higher in July, but based on what we know about draft pick bust rates versus what we know Whitlock at least is right now... you could make the case it's Whitlock. I don't think I would personally, but that we can even discuss that with a straight face is bonkers. It's a great topic, and I would assert that there's no possible good answer.
Whitlock right now has a huge edge in command, certainly within-game, and probably in consistency across games (although the SS is small). Stuff-wise, Whitlock's changeup and Houck's slider may well both be plus-plus pitches. Houck's sinker, in terms of movement and velo, is also outrageous while Whitlock's is merely very good, but so far that edge is negated by the command difference. Houck's 4-seamer is a legit third pitch, but in a vacuum not a very good one, but it sets up his sinker. And his off-speed pitch is a work in progress, while Whitlock's slider seems to be further along. (He's thrown 8, and it's actually been his most effective pitch.)
Another joker in the deck: the cutter is an easy pitch to learn, and I don't believe either guy has tried it. The curve is rather tougher to learn; I'm unsure about both guy's history with it. And was Whitlock's overnight mastery of Andriese's changeup grip a fluke, or does it indicate a skill for learning new pitches? What about Houck's command projection in light of the fact that taller pitchers often struggle when young and improve?
|
|
|