SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/12-4/15 Red Sox @ Twins Series Thread
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,355
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Apr 15, 2021 16:16:43 GMT -5
I think there is a difference between a bad trade and a trade that doesn’t work out. I don’t see how the Ottavino trade can be seen as *bad*. You get a possibly great reliever and a prospect for nothing. That is a worthy try. Now, Ottavino could be toast, and the prospect could bomb. That is a bad result. But it doesn’t mean it was a bad trade. Personally, I think Ottavino looks like he is toast AND I still think this was the best move of the offseason because the model was right: get something to help now, a bit to help later, give up nothing that hurts you now or later.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 15, 2021 16:18:02 GMT -5
Ottavino's wildness hurt and that's something the pen has a lot of guys that are similar with. At some point whether it's Seabold or Whitlock I can see them moving into a setup role of more significance, but even they're not quite the prototype as neither are really 1 inning pitchers, but it can work if need be down the road.
I don't know that Ottavino isn't trending toward washed up status. He had bad numbers last year but the thought was if you take out his worst outing......well, if you do that with all pitchers, doesn't that make their numbers look a heckuva lot better as well?
Hernandez and Sawamura have the same wildness issues as well and Andriese is more of a long reliever/5th or 6th inning type reliever, so I don't know if they have an immediate solution on hand other than to see if Whitlock can do the job but I'm sure they don't want him on back-to-back days so I'm not sure he's the 8th inning/#2 guy out of the pen.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 15, 2021 16:22:36 GMT -5
Whitlock can be the set-up man. The issue is that we’re up against the cap because we took on Ottavino’s salary.
Anyways, I’m done venting about it. I see why people liked the trade but I didn’t think it was worth it, particularly because I view that deal in tandem with selling low on Benintendi to cut payroll.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 15, 2021 16:34:35 GMT -5
Yeah we’ll see how it goes but that Ottavino trade coupled with selling low on Benintendi were probably my two least favorite moves Bloom made. Frank German could still give surplus value even if Ottavino bombs. That trade seems low risk to me IMO Bloom has been looking for any way possible to add young, controllable starting pitching. If German was not in the trade then it never happens!
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 15, 2021 16:35:53 GMT -5
Whitlock can be the set-up man. The issue is that we’re up against the cap because we took on Ottavino’s salary. Anyways, I’m done venting about it. I see why people liked the trade but I didn’t think it was worth it, particularly because I view that deal in tandem with selling low on Benintendi to cut payroll. They're getting 5 players for a guy that's showing a lot of signs of being a declining player. I'm not sure if that's exactly selling low.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,195
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 15, 2021 16:58:49 GMT -5
I'm amazed that some posters here are drawing conclusions on RELIEF pitching THIRTEEN games into the season. It's April folks!
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 15, 2021 17:03:20 GMT -5
I'm amazed that some posters here are drawing conclusions on RELIEF pitching THIRTEEN games into the season. It's April folks! Ottavino has pitched 22 innings since the beginning of 2020. It's a nothing of a sample size, and even so, his FIP/xFIP/xERA are essentially right at his career averages in that time.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2021 17:10:27 GMT -5
It is a bit early to be panicking on Ottavino as far as I am concerned.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 15, 2021 17:10:42 GMT -5
All I know is the Red Sox playoff probability just dropped to zero. Fire Bloom.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,195
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 15, 2021 17:22:14 GMT -5
Man, that kid Verdugo is a mood 😂
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,355
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Apr 15, 2021 17:29:13 GMT -5
It is a bit early to be panicking on Ottavino as far as I am concerned. I’m not sure it is panic, but amI am moving towards resignation. From 2017-2020, he average 5.2 BBs per 9. But he was not too easy to hit (6.5 hits). Now, you look at the trending up of hits/9, and it adds up to a problem. For me, part of it expectations/hope. I really thought we’d get elite Ottavino, and we look like we are getting downside Ottavino. That doesn’t mean he dab’t still be good... it just means I no longer think he’ll be as good as he was (and I had previously hoped he’d be).
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2021 18:04:16 GMT -5
If we don't end up winning the Ottavino part of the trade but crush the Yankees with the Whitlock acquisition and then German is the cherry on top. As mediocre to bad as Otto has been Whitlock has been far and away a great revelation. From can he stick all season to how can we best use him as a strength of the pen and as a future starter.
Maybe it doesn't last but he has been dominant so far, opposite ends of the SSS argument.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Apr 15, 2021 18:39:17 GMT -5
Whitlock can be the set-up man. The issue is that we’re up against the cap because we took on Ottavino’s salary. Anyways, I’m done venting about it. I see why people liked the trade but I didn’t think it was worth it, particularly because I view that deal in tandem with selling low on Benintendi to cut payroll. I'm not sure we sold low on Benintendi
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2021 20:07:25 GMT -5
Big tools and, as he showed right there, BIG stones. Thanks, LAD. When the Mookie trade rumors started, I'm pretty sure I said that I'd trade him for Verdugo, but the Dodgers would never do that.
And that was based strictly on his numbers and scouting reports. I knew nothing about his makeup (clutch, inspirational), or how much fun he'd be to watch.
I now want to formally introduce the Verdugo-Drew Scale (VDS) for emotion expressed on the ballfield, where Verdugo is 10 and Drew was 0.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2021 20:42:35 GMT -5
If you look at the 18 batted balls in the game that had an xBA greater than 0.5 ....
The weakest hit was the winning single (63.7, .850). The second weakest was Arraez's leadoff single in that inning (85.8, .880).
There were 7 balls that went for outs:
105.5, .930 Renfroe in the 2nd, barrel, 405' to CF
104.7, .760 Devers in the 7th, barrel, 375' to CF
103.7, .660 Cave's rocket at Arroyo after Sano's HR
100.1, .670 Kepler off Taylor, barrel, 375' to CF
99.5, .630 Vazquez leading off 9th, barrel, 376' to CF
99.5, .720 Garver's liner to Devers 95.2, .590 Riddle in the 4th, Arroyo nice play to his left
Six guys barreled the ball in this game and the only guys who got hits were Sano (HR) and Arroyo (off Colome). That is very strange.
Just 2 of the 32 balls with xBA of .5 or below went for hits.
95.2, .380 Arreaz's 2-RBI single
63.4, .290 Xander swinging bunt in the 7th
Pretty much a game lost by the breaks. Renfroe leaves the yard if he hits it 5' feet in either direction, Arraez is out 3 if he hits it in a typical direction for him.
And now it's time for one of the 21 Oscar-nominated films I want to watch in the next 10.5 days. There will likely be fewer interesting tidbits from me until the 26th ...
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 0:17:19 GMT -5
Frank German could still give surplus value even if Ottavino bombs. That trade seems low risk to me IMO Bloom has been looking for any way possible to add young, controllable starting pitching. If German was not in the trade then it never happens! I still don't know about this as far as - is German a young controllable starting pitching prospect? From everything I've read he projects to be a fringy reliever. I know Bloom thinks he can be more than that. I hope he's right. I mean I haven't read anything that suggests German can be a starter and paying $8 million for a potentially washed up reliever and a fringy relief prospect doesn't make sense, so Bloom obviously regards him higher than that. I just hope German gives me a reason to see it Bloom's way.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 0:22:55 GMT -5
I'm amazed that some posters here are drawing conclusions on RELIEF pitching THIRTEEN games into the season. It's April folks! Ottavino has pitched 22 innings since the beginning of 2020. It's a nothing of a sample size, and even so, his FIP/xFIP/xERA are essentially right at his career averages in that time. Relievers have been torpedoed over smaller sample sizes. Ottavino's control has gotten worse over the past few years. I think his margin of error has shrunk. Honestly, when he comes into the game, do you expect him to keep the opposition off the board? I mean, when he came in at 3-3 in the 9th I felt the streak was going to end. Leadoff walks are killers and he does have control issues. Then he hits the 2nd batter. He fanned Cruz on a nasty pitch and then gave up a blooper to lose it. The blooper doesn't say anything about him, but the walks and hit batsman. I'm not completely giving up on him, but frankly I don't trust him that much. I didn't have an issue with Cora going to him when he did. He was pitching in the role the Sox had in mind for him, but if he's going to stay in that role, he has to pound the strike zone more. I guess I just wonder if he does, does he have enough to get hitters out consistently enough? I honestly don't know the answer to that, but thus far I'm not encouraged.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 16, 2021 1:36:43 GMT -5
Despite the loss, we're still 2nd in MLB in both Win% and run differential. And all four other AL East clubs lost.
Now, a premature start to the next thread: there is no waiting period for guys who serve as the 27th man in a doubleheader after they are re-optioned. If they do play today, Houck will be recalled and Valdez optioned for a minimum 15 days. If Houck is sent down immediately after his start, which seems likely, I'd rather see Bazardo than Brewer for those 15.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,195
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 16, 2021 3:47:01 GMT -5
Ottavino has pitched 22 innings since the beginning of 2020. It's a nothing of a sample size, and even so, his FIP/xFIP/xERA are essentially right at his career averages in that time. Relievers have been torpedoed over smaller sample sizes. Ottavino's control has gotten worse over the past few years. I think his margin of error has shrunk. Honestly, when he comes into the game, do you expect him to keep the opposition off the board? I mean, when he came in at 3-3 in the 9th I felt the streak was going to end. Leadoff walks are killers and he does have control issues. Then he hits the 2nd batter. He fanned Cruz on a nasty pitch and then gave up a blooper to lose it. The blooper doesn't say anything about him, but the walks and hit batsman. I'm not completely giving up on him, but frankly I don't trust him that much. I didn't have an issue with Cora going to him when he did. He was pitching in the role the Sox had in mind for him, but if he's going to stay in that role, he has to pound the strike zone more. I guess I just wonder if he does, does he have enough to get hitters out consistently enough? I honestly don't know the answer to that, but thus far I'm not encouraged. Why you keep thinking that Ottavino walked Arraez to leadoff the inning? You mentioned it in like 3 different comments lmao.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 16, 2021 6:48:34 GMT -5
For everyone taking about the CBT, if this team is in first near the deadline and is a piece or two from being legit, it wouldn't surprise me if they went over to get them. Maybe not, but at that point if you're taking going a little bit over and a minimal tax payment, I don't see why you wouldn't if the right deal came along.
On the Ottavino trade specifically, I don't see this team using that to go sign a different reliever who was available this year on anything more than a one-year deal. If you want to quibble that maybe they should've claimed Hand instead, then I would probably not argue (better reliever vs. also getting German though), but that's also a mistake every team in MLB made in misreading the FA market for relievers this offseason at that point in time.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2021 7:56:48 GMT -5
Relievers have been torpedoed over smaller sample sizes. Ottavino's control has gotten worse over the past few years. I think his margin of error has shrunk. Honestly, when he comes into the game, do you expect him to keep the opposition off the board? I mean, when he came in at 3-3 in the 9th I felt the streak was going to end. Leadoff walks are killers and he does have control issues. Then he hits the 2nd batter. He fanned Cruz on a nasty pitch and then gave up a blooper to lose it. The blooper doesn't say anything about him, but the walks and hit batsman. I'm not completely giving up on him, but frankly I don't trust him that much. I didn't have an issue with Cora going to him when he did. He was pitching in the role the Sox had in mind for him, but if he's going to stay in that role, he has to pound the strike zone more. I guess I just wonder if he does, does he have enough to get hitters out consistently enough? I honestly don't know the answer to that, but thus far I'm not encouraged. Why you keep thinking that Ottavino walked Arraez to leadoff the inning? You mentioned it in like 3 different comments lmao. Because I mistakenly thought he walked the leadoff guy. With Arraez I should have known better. That guy is going to win a batting title or two before he's done. Of course, the HBP following the leadoff hit wasn't very helpful. Basically with the way it's been going with him, you kind of expect trouble to brew when he enters the game.
|
|
|