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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 20, 2021 8:20:37 GMT -5
I know you're speaking in hyperbole and I agree with the sentiment... but I had to do the math. There's only 15,625 unique combinations of division leaders (assuming no ties). So a random draw would be 1:15,625 and Powerball is 1:292M, which means that one would need to pick a random draw of teams this year and a random draw of teams next year and still it's more likely to get the right winners than win the Powerball. That's at least 1:244M. Having done this math and proven to myself (again) how crazy it is to buy a lottery ticket, I'm still buying Powerball the next time the jackpot builds up. Because the chance at $20 million isn’t. enough? (how my brain goads me into pissing away $2 on PowerBall whenever I tell myself, “Well, if the jackpot gets up there, why not?” But you’re right - the odds are equivalent to basically getting struck by lightning...while dancing the tango with Emma Stone after she calls you out of the blue to suggest dancing tango, even though you’ve never met. I used to say it is worth the buck to daydream about the things you could do with many millions, still worth the 2 as far as I'm concerned.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 20, 2021 9:22:13 GMT -5
17 games into the season and the leaders are: Boston KC Seattle NY Mets Cincinnati LA Dodgers The odds on this has to be smaller than winning the lottery. I know you're speaking in hyperbole and I agree with the sentiment... but I had to do the math. There's only 15,625 unique combinations of division leaders (assuming no ties). So a random draw would be 1:15,625 and Powerball is 1:292M, which means that one would need to pick a random draw of teams this year and a random draw of teams next year and still it's more likely to get the right winners than win the Powerball. That's at least 1:244M. Having done this math and proven to myself (again) how crazy it is to buy a lottery ticket, I'm still buying Powerball the next time the jackpot builds up. You are wrong! The lottery is random, and there is NOTHING random about teams and rosters. How many times have the Mariners ever finished first? Do you think the Pirates have an equal chance as the Dodgers to win this year? The lottery is based on equal chances for each number combination. The Dodgers have been to the WS or NLCS 4 years in a row. Calculate that!!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 20, 2021 10:27:16 GMT -5
I know you're speaking in hyperbole and I agree with the sentiment... but I had to do the math. There's only 15,625 unique combinations of division leaders (assuming no ties). So a random draw would be 1:15,625 and Powerball is 1:292M, which means that one would need to pick a random draw of teams this year and a random draw of teams next year and still it's more likely to get the right winners than win the Powerball. That's at least 1:244M. Having done this math and proven to myself (again) how crazy it is to buy a lottery ticket, I'm still buying Powerball the next time the jackpot builds up. Because the chance at $20 million isn’t. enough? (how my brain goads me into pissing away $2 on PowerBall whenever I tell myself, “Well, if the jackpot gets up there, why not?” But you’re right - the odds are equivalent to basically getting struck by lightning...while dancing the tango with Emma Stone after she calls you out of the blue to suggest dancing tango, even though you’ve never met. That happened to you too ?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 20, 2021 13:56:53 GMT -5
Expected hits off of Eovaldi were 5.9. The White Sox went 5/8 on balls with an xBA of .180 or less, that had an average EV of 80.9.
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Post by unitspin on Apr 20, 2021 15:24:02 GMT -5
What exactly are you happy about? They are doing what they should, beating up on the bottom of the league. The only team they have played so far that has a chance at the playoffs is minny. When they start sweeping Toronto and the yanks, then I'll be happy. The White Sox are expected to be playoff contenders and the Rays are defending champs. I have an even better question for you. Why not be happy? I mean the curse has been over for 18 years and the Sox have won 4 WS since. Do you get any enjoyment out of your sports teams or is it just an outlet for negative thoughts? Why not be happy with a team that has gone 11-3 after starting 0-3 and being pegged as a .500 team and is in 1st place. While the arch rival Yanks are off to a terrible start. Plenty of reason to be happy IMO. Okay Dr. Phil. If I do not think they are going to make the playoffs why would I get happy about them beating up on bad teams. And your opinion means nothing to me so I'll peg them how I see and you can do as you choose.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 20, 2021 15:29:34 GMT -5
The White Sox are expected to be playoff contenders and the Rays are defending champs. I have an even better question for you. Why not be happy? I mean the curse has been over for 18 years and the Sox have won 4 WS since. Do you get any enjoyment out of your sports teams or is it just an outlet for negative thoughts? Why not be happy with a team that has gone 11-3 after starting 0-3 and being pegged as a .500 team and is in 1st place. While the arch rival Yanks are off to a terrible start. Plenty of reason to be happy IMO. Okay Dr. Phil. If I do not think they are going to make the playoffs why would I get happy about them beating up on bad teams. And your opinion means nothing to me so I'll peg them how I see and you can do as you choose. You must be a barrel of laughs at a party.
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Post by unitspin on Apr 20, 2021 17:43:48 GMT -5
Okay Dr. Phil. If I do not think they are going to make the playoffs why would I get happy about them beating up on bad teams. And your opinion means nothing to me so I'll peg them how I see and you can do as you choose. You must be a barrel of laughs at a party. Okay, boomer....
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 20, 2021 19:41:44 GMT -5
I know you're speaking in hyperbole and I agree with the sentiment... but I had to do the math. There's only 15,625 unique combinations of division leaders (assuming no ties). So a random draw would be 1:15,625 and Powerball is 1:292M, which means that one would need to pick a random draw of teams this year and a random draw of teams next year and still it's more likely to get the right winners than win the Powerball. That's at least 1:244M. Having done this math and proven to myself (again) how crazy it is to buy a lottery ticket, I'm still buying Powerball the next time the jackpot builds up. You are wrong! The lottery is random, and there is NOTHING random about teams and rosters. How many times have the Mariners ever finished first? Do you think the Pirates have an equal chance as the Dodgers to win this year? The lottery is based on equal chances for each number combination. The Dodgers have been to the WS or NLCS 4 years in a row. Calculate that!! That's why I said pick a "random draw" of teams, to create independence. Basically the quick pick option of selecting teams. But anyways, I was just having some fun and wasn't trying to do anything scientific nor pick on your statement, I agree with the sentiment that the division leaders (esp in the AL) are crazy. It's mostly a statement on the absurdity of the lottery. Using pre-season fangraphs odds: Boston 9.0% Kansas City 4.7% Seattle 1.3% NY Mets 57.8% Cincinnati 18.4% LA Dodgers 70.0% That puts the odds of a computer picking these 6 teams based on fangraphs' parameters at 1 in 244K. Replace the Mets with the Braves and pick a non-LA/SD team in the west and we'd be hitting Powerball levels of likelihood.
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