SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/20-4/21 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 20, 2021 21:01:22 GMT -5
Red Sox now have wins against Glasnow, Maeda, Berrios, Giolito, and Ryu. I'd say that's pretty solid.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Apr 20, 2021 21:13:09 GMT -5
Red Sox now have wins against Glasnow, Maeda, Berrios, Gioloto, and Ryu. I'd say that's pretty solid. Well Ryu is basically Kyle Hart so it's not all that impressive.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 20, 2021 21:43:15 GMT -5
Fangraphs has them at #2, just below the LAD in newest power rankings and also PO chances up to over 50% Power Rankings
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 20, 2021 22:15:32 GMT -5
Kiki Hernandez seems like a majority of his games will be in CF. How many of you think his offensive numbers will be better than JBJ’s at the end of the year. If Kiki’s are better, decent defense, and $5 million less, then I would assume most fans would say it was a good decision to sign Kiki instead of JBJ.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Apr 20, 2021 22:25:42 GMT -5
The offense remains fantastic, I'm starting to get some hope that the offense really is better than we expected it to be.
4/1 to 4/11 (9 games, 6-3) - 58 runs, 2nd to the Reds 4/11 to 4/20 (9 games, 6-3) - 42 runs, 4th to the Marins, Braves, As
|
|
kevfc89
Veteran
Posts: 4,990
Member is Online
|
Post by kevfc89 on Apr 20, 2021 22:30:11 GMT -5
The offense remains fantastic, I'm starting to get some hope that the offense really is better than we expected it to be. 4/1 to 4/11 (9 games, 6-3) - 58 runs, 2nd to the Reds 4/11 to 4/20 (9 games, 6-3) - 42 runs, 4th to the Marins, Braves, As Coming into today the Red Sox led all of MLB with a 128 wRC+ as a team. However, they also lead baseball in BABIP by a large margin so perhaps the numbers drop down a bit over time. Or perhaps they mimic the 2013 team and ride a super high BABIP all year to a championship!
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 20, 2021 23:34:34 GMT -5
Kiki Hernandez seems like a majority of his games will be in CF. How many of you think his offensive numbers will be better than JBJ’s at the end of the year. If Kiki’s are better, decent defense, and $5 million less, then I would assume most fans would say it was a good decision to sign Kiki instead of JBJ. I think it is fine. But better is strong. For one thing, JBJ’s strength was D... so he could have a higher WAR but worse offensive numbers. For another, Kiké was not brought in to play CF alone (and I expect he’ll have a mix of games at 2b maybe elsewhere). My only point being that it may not be so clear a choice. I suspect JBJ will be better as a centerfielder; I suspect Kiké will demonstrate versatility that JBJ cannot. So it is a bit apples-and-oranges-y. I so wonder if Arroyo has surprised them internally, though. Kiké seemed like he was destined to play a lot at 2b, but Arroyo is staking a claim... if they gad known they already had a low-cost 2b on the roster, would it have changed the off-season plan at all?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 21, 2021 0:19:14 GMT -5
Good win. Solid pitching all around. 6 quality innings from E-Rod. He probably shouldn't have come out for the 7th but at least Cora didn't linger with him.
Andriese, Ottavino, and Barnes did a good job holding the Jays down and X provided all the runs they needed with one swing. Dalbec had a nice game, too with his RBI triple and flashing the leather in the field. His pick in the 9th was huge.
Hopefully Richards can take a step forward. He hasn't exactly won me over. He had one horrendous start and two decent ones. Hopefully he'll have his best one to date on Wednesday.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,651
|
Post by gerry on Apr 21, 2021 0:22:03 GMT -5
It may be Kiké + Duran > JBJ in CF. Maybe not. Or Arroyo + Kiké + Downs is better than any 2B we have had since Pedeyâs knee finally broke. Point is this team continues to evolve. I donât see this group falling flat. Too much talent, too much excitement, too much depth.
I donât believe the competition canât get it together. But I do see the Sox actually getting better. It continues to do so with the ongoing improvements/successes of Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Barnes, Ottavino, Andriese, Whitlock, CV, JDM, Kiké, Arroyo, each of whom had serious doubters (here and elsewhere) on April 1. We are, so far, getting the upsides instead of the expected downsides. Go Sox.
In this light we still donât know if Dalbec is starting to warm up, or the long term impact of Marwinâs OBP and versatile defense or Franchyâs potential. Each of them could improve the team. Evolution.
Finally. Sale, Houck, Seabold, Bazardo, Brasier, Duran, Downs are all in the 2021 wings. It seems to me, even with injuries, Babip and other regressions, this will remain a good team. The competition will come as other teams get back to form, and that will be fun. In summary, the 2021 Sox are a competitive, cup is half full team. Go Sox.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,376
|
Post by cdj on Apr 21, 2021 0:33:27 GMT -5
Kiki Hernandez seems like a majority of his games will be in CF. How many of you think his offensive numbers will be better than JBJ’s at the end of the year. If Kiki’s are better, decent defense, and $5 million less, then I would assume most fans would say it was a good decision to sign Kiki instead of JBJ. I think it is fine. But better is strong. For one thing, JBJ’s strength was D... so he could have a higher WAR but worse offensive numbers. For another, Kiké was not brought in to play CF alone (and I expect he’ll have a mix of games at 2b maybe elsewhere). My only point being that it may not be so clear a choice. I suspect JBJ will be better as a centerfielder; I suspect Kiké will demonstrate versatility that JBJ cannot. So it is a bit apples-and-oranges-y. I so wonder if Arroyo has surprised them internally, though. Kiké seemed like he was destined to play a lot at 2b, but Arroyo is staking a claim... if they gad known they already had a low-cost 2b on the roster, would it have changed the off-season plan at all? I think they probably target Kikè regardless of Arroyo’s status, versatility was the name of the game this offseason and he is the epitome of that. Plus I think Cora wanted him in the clubhouse. Especially after such a low energy season
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2021 1:16:06 GMT -5
Kiki Hernandez seems like a majority of his games will be in CF. How many of you think his offensive numbers will be better than JBJâs at the end of the year. If Kikiâs are better, decent defense, and $5 million less, then I would assume most fans would say it was a good decision to sign Kiki instead of JBJ. Kiki Hernandez seems like a majority of his games will be in CF. How many of you think his offensive numbers will be better than JBJâs at the end of the year. If Kikiâs are better, decent defense, and $5 million less, then I would assume most fans would say it was a good decision to sign Kiki instead of JBJ. I think it is fine. But better is strong. For one thing, JBJâs strength was D... so he could have a higher WAR but worse offensive numbers. For another, Kiké was not brought in to play CF alone (and I expect heâll have a mix of games at 2b maybe elsewhere). My only point being that it may not be so clear a choice. I suspect JBJ will be better as a centerfielder; I suspect Kiké will demonstrate versatility that JBJ cannot. So it is a bit apples-and-oranges-y. I so wonder if Arroyo has surprised them internally, though. Kiké seemed like he was destined to play a lot at 2b, but Arroyo is staking a claim... if they gad known they already had a low-cost 2b on the roster, would it have changed the off-season plan at all? I think there's a really strong argument that it was Marwin that they signed instead of JBJ.
1. I had Kiké as an addition from the get-go (along with Renfroe).
2. If the current roster had been planned, they would have traded JBJ at the deadline for more gold (and taken a good look at Cesar Puello, who I still think is terrific AAA depth).
3. Signing both Kiké and Marwin is insanely counter-intuitive, but I now think it's brilliant. To extend an analogy I made a bit back, it's like you're on death row and you choose a pizza for your last lunch ... and a calzone for your last dinner. And then the governor pardons you because he owns the pizza joint.
4. So, where did that idea come from? Maybe the guy Bloom didn't expect to rehire who has called Marwin's clubhouse presence "amazing." (He's also a winning ballplayer on the field, great numbers in high leverage since he changed his hitting approach in 2017, with splits indicating he hits good pitching.)
The idea here is that Marwin can play Kiké's originally intended role of guy who plays everywhere, starting more than half the time, and Kiké can replace JBJ in CF as a semi-regular who can sometimes start in LF or at 2B. And the downgrade in those two roles is largely offset by difference in versatility between JBJ and Marwin, and the savings in money makes it a plus move.
Re the second bolded chunk of text, I spent the winter saying that there was a good chance they wanted to take a serious look at Arroyo at 2B, and once the roster was set I said that all during ST, to the point of suggesting in the meta-forum that Arroyo should be listed as the starting 2B and Kiké as the starter in CF.
So, to answer your question, this was the plan, and then they signed Danny Santana as yet another possibility at 2B.
It's Arroyo's defense that has been the really pleasant surprise to us (but not as much, I think, to them). He didn't have a lot of pro PT there -- my report on him that I never got around to writing was that he had the tools to be a good defensive 2B but had to learn 2B-specific skills. It now seems like he spent a lot of time doing just that in ST.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 21, 2021 2:15:25 GMT -5
I enjoy the site, I wish they'd give recognition on the other side too. I'd be equally entertained by seeing the worse call by the umps that really nailed it. Imagine seeing an ump who got everything right within an inch? With that said, well done Joe... I love this site showing the worst call of the day. I know some purists like the human factor of calling a game but I say "get it right" is more important. Can't wait until the calls are done digitally and these strike zones become consistent. Accuracy matters.
|
|
fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
|
Post by fenwayfaithful on Apr 21, 2021 2:15:56 GMT -5
Like i said at the beginning of the season. Arroyo needs a full time shot. Kiki in C and Verdugo in RF. End of story!
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2021 4:45:48 GMT -5
Sox are now 12-0 in games where they led at any point. Opponents are 6-9.
As Chris notes in his tweet, we are on pace for 108 wins. That's with Xander and Dalbec combining for 9 HR's.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 21, 2021 6:45:26 GMT -5
Like i said at the beginning of the season. Arroyo needs a full time shot. Kiki in C and Verdugo in RF. End of story! At this point yes. Hunter and Franchy should be a strict platoon, it would benefit both of them.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 21, 2021 7:45:48 GMT -5
Like i said at the beginning of the season. Arroyo needs a full time shot. Kiki in C and Verdugo in RF. End of story! At this point yes. Hunter and Franchy should be a strict platoon, it would benefit both of them. Agreed. I figured it would take Duran coming up to create a Franchy/Renfroe platoon, but that's no longer the case. Christian Arroyo has been eye opening as he had 3 more hits yesterday. There was some debate as to whether he'd survive the roster crunch if/when Santana was ready, but that's not a question anymore. At this point he is forcing Kiké into an every day position in CF and hitting his way into an every day job at 2b. If Hernandez doesn't get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter, Arroyo could be an option. At this point Cora is batting him 7th as a guy on base in front of power hitters (or so we've been told, haha) Cordero/Renfroe and Dalbec. So with Kiké in CF each day and Verdugo a mainstay in the OF, that forces a platoon of Franchy and Renfroe (thankfully).
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 21, 2021 8:21:57 GMT -5
Like i said at the beginning of the season. Arroyo needs a full time shot. Kiki in C and Verdugo in RF. End of story! At this point yes. Hunter and Franchy should be a strict platoon, it would benefit both of them. In Renfroe’s last 103 games, going back to the break in 2019, he is batting .160 over 337 ABs. I am not really sure much can be done to benefit him. At this point I might rather start cycling guys like Marwin to platoon Franchy with different pieces and have Renfroe as a defensive replacement.
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Apr 21, 2021 11:17:45 GMT -5
Finally made it back to Fenway for the first time in almost two years last night. I almost like the limited capacity games better. Plenty of room, short beer lines, crowd REALLY into it. Might have been an all time high for belligerence in the RF Grandstand. Loved every minute of it.
|
|
fenwayfaithful
Rookie
A prospect is fun to watch, but trading him for a sure thing in the Majors is never a losing deal.
Posts: 114
|
Post by fenwayfaithful on Apr 21, 2021 11:48:42 GMT -5
At this point yes. Hunter and Franchy should be a strict platoon, it would benefit both of them. Agreed. I figured it would take Duran coming up to create a Franchy/Renfroe platoon, but that's no longer the case. Christian Arroyo has been eye opening as he had 3 more hits yesterday. There was some debate as to whether he'd survive the roster crunch if/when Santana was ready, but that's not a question anymore. At this point he is forcing Kiké into an every day position in CF and hitting his way into an every day job at 2b. If Hernandez doesn't get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter, Arroyo could be an option. At this point Cora is batting him 7th as a guy on base in front of power hitters (or so we've been told, haha) Cordero/Renfroe and Dalbec. So with Kiké in CF each day and Verdugo a mainstay in the OF, that forces a platoon of Franchy and Renfroe (thankfully). Amen to this! You hit everything on the nose. I wouldn’t even mind seeing Verdugo back at the 1st slot and Arroyo batting 2nd. I don’t think Cora would move Kiki down unless he really had a bad slump but it’s looking like Kiki is JBJs replacement and if that’s the case it makes Bloom look great because he’s just a hair worse defensively, but better offensively and cheaper. Kiki CF Verdugo RF JD DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3rd Vazquez C Arroyo 2nd Franchy/Renfroe LF Dalbec 1st with Marwin giving everyone breaks around the diamond. This should be our lineup most of the time. Cora clearly knows what he’s doing but I would like to see this be our most common lineup.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 21, 2021 12:01:40 GMT -5
Agreed. I figured it would take Duran coming up to create a Franchy/Renfroe platoon, but that's no longer the case. Christian Arroyo has been eye opening as he had 3 more hits yesterday. There was some debate as to whether he'd survive the roster crunch if/when Santana was ready, but that's not a question anymore. At this point he is forcing Kiké into an every day position in CF and hitting his way into an every day job at 2b. If Hernandez doesn't get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter, Arroyo could be an option. At this point Cora is batting him 7th as a guy on base in front of power hitters (or so we've been told, haha) Cordero/Renfroe and Dalbec. So with Kiké in CF each day and Verdugo a mainstay in the OF, that forces a platoon of Franchy and Renfroe (thankfully). Amen to this! You hit everything on the nose. I wouldn’t even mind seeing Verdugo back at the 1st slot and Arroyo batting 2nd. I don’t think Cora would move Kiki down unless he really had a bad slump but it’s looking like Kiki is JBJs replacement and if that’s the case it makes Bloom look great because he’s just a hair worse defensively, but better offensively and cheaper. Kiki CF Verdugo RF JD DH Bogaerts SS Devers 3rd Vazquez C Arroyo 2nd Franchy/Renfroe LF Dalbec 1st with Marwin giving everyone breaks around the diamond. This should be our lineup most of the time. Cora clearly knows what he’s doing but I would like to see this be our most common lineup. Arroyo, at this point is a far better hitter than Renfroe, so Arroyo regularly at 2B, pushes Kiki to CF, and Renfroe and Cordero to platoon. As I stated earlier in the thread (although it is not apples to apples), Kiki has largely replaced JBJ with more consistent offense and a tick down defensively and for less money ($10 million over two years is significant). I think Bloom has put together enough versatility and talent to be competitive (and hopefully still be consistently good even with whatever injuries inevitably happen). The bullpen has been very, very good despite playing some good competitive teams (Minn, TB, ChiW, and Tor). Cora has also done a good job keep the bullpen fresh and not over used. Maybe we can credit the 14 man staff for that. It seems for the most part Cora has used the correct relievers in the right spots (I have questioned his judgement a time or two, but he has done well as a whole). I hope it all continues.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 21, 2021 12:32:41 GMT -5
Arroyo has a .441 BABIP in 44 plate appearances. Resetting that to .325 puts his OBP under .300. I'm excited by how well he's playing, but I don't think they're at a point where they should be reshuffling playing time significantly. There just hasn't been enough time to indicate that the players are different than we thought they were three weeks ago. Maybe give him one more start a week, then we get into mid-May and start really reevaluating.
Except for Whitlock, that dude is a stud.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 21, 2021 12:43:55 GMT -5
Arroyo has a .441 BABIP in 44 plate appearances. Resetting that to .325 puts his OBP under .300. I'm excited by how well he's playing, but I don't think they're at a point where they should be reshuffling playing time significantly. There just hasn't been enough time to indicate that the players are different than we thought they were three weeks ago. Maybe give him one more start a week, then we get into mid-May and start really reevaluating. Except for Whitlock, that dude is a stud. It boils down to Arroyo vs Renfro against RHP. I don’t agree with parking Renfroe permanently on the bench, just adding additional playing time against RHP to Arroyo. They will both play against LHP as they did yesterday. My earlier comment obviously was not clear enough. Note: if 18 games is not enough time to judge position players, then why is 4 outings of 9 innings enough to throw Whitlock in a whole bunch of high leverage games. (I agree he is good enough), but why is small sample size ok for one and not the other? Also, if the Red Sox do not want Arroyo full time at 2nd, then they can use Gonzalez (which they already have done) leaving Kiki in CF the vast majority of the time (which my crystal ball say Cora will do) as it seems to optimize the lineup.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 21, 2021 12:51:55 GMT -5
Arroyo has a .441 BABIP in 44 plate appearances. Resetting that to .325 puts his OBP under .300. I'm excited by how well he's playing, but I don't think they're at a point where they should be reshuffling playing time significantly. There just hasn't been enough time to indicate that the players are different than we thought they were three weeks ago. Maybe give him one more start a week, then we get into mid-May and start really reevaluating. Except for Whitlock, that dude is a stud. I get your point. I read an article that said the Sox BABIP is higher than any team has ever finished a season with, I think .342 at this point to be exact, so regression is most likely, and as you point out, that includes Arroyo. From my useless eye test it looks like Arroyo has been earning his hits, not living on bloopers falling in or infield grounders/swinging bunts, so I think even if you take the air out of it, I think there is still something going on with him showing maturity as a player. At the very worst, I think you can eliminate Arroyo as a "bubble" player. I would say at this point his spot on the roster is very secure, and I think it's fair to think that sticking him at 2b with Kiké in CF is preferable to giving a hopelessly overmatched Renfroe ABs against a righties. And yes if the Arroyo bubble bursts there is still the possibility of giving ABs to Duran as the LH hitting platoon in CF with Kiké taking ABs against lefties as the CF and probably playing 2b against righties. As it is, I have a feeling we might see a .270 - .280 type performance out of Arroyo and in a league where the average hitter is batting .233 that's pretty damn good. Hopefully he'll walk enough so that the OBP rises above league average.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 21, 2021 13:17:43 GMT -5
Note: if 18 games is not enough time to judge position players, then why is 4 outings of 9 innings enough to throw Whitlock in a whole bunch of high leverage games. (I agree he is good enough), but why is small sample size ok for one and not the other? Because Whitlock's stuff looks outstanding and his peripherals are as perfect as his baseline numbers. And because the standard of elevating someone from choice #5 out of the bullpen to #3 is different from elevating someone from utilityman to everyday player. And also I'm being half-jokey because this is some Juan Pena-level "this is phenomenal, I had no idea this guy was this kinda good" stuff.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 21, 2021 13:44:27 GMT -5
Note: if 18 games is not enough time to judge position players, then why is 4 outings of 9 innings enough to throw Whitlock in a whole bunch of high leverage games. (I agree he is good enough), but why is small sample size ok for one and not the other? Because Whitlock's stuff looks outstanding and his peripherals are as perfect as his baseline numbers. And because the standard of elevating someone from choice #5 out of the bullpen to #8 is different from elevating someone from utilityman to everyday player. And also I'm being half-jokey because this is some Juan Pena-level "this is phenomenal, I had no idea this guy was this kinda good" stuff. I would increase Whitlock, but also Arroyo (the amount accordingly), but not to the point they are using him (Whitlock) three to four times a week (TJ recovery, and spread his innings so he will have inning left in his arm unlike what Washington did with Strassburg). SSS is still SSS no matter how you add it up.
|
|
|