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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 21, 2021 13:59:46 GMT -5
Note: if 18 games is not enough time to judge position players, then why is 4 outings of 9 innings enough to throw Whitlock in a whole bunch of high leverage games. (I agree he is good enough), but why is small sample size ok for one and not the other? Because Whitlock's stuff looks outstanding and his peripherals are as perfect as his baseline numbers. And because the standard of elevating someone from choice #5 out of the bullpen to #8 is different from elevating someone from utilityman to everyday player. And also I'm being half-jokey because this is some Juan Pena-level "this is phenomenal, I had no idea this guy was this kinda good" stuff. Half jokey or not.. Who would most RS fans feel better about seeing warm up to come into a game with a FB/change up heavy repertoire? Whitlock, or Valdez? My guess is it's not even close.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Apr 21, 2021 14:38:42 GMT -5
Because Whitlock's stuff looks outstanding and his peripherals are as perfect as his baseline numbers. And because the standard of elevating someone from choice #5 out of the bullpen to #8 is different from elevating someone from utilityman to everyday player. And also I'm being half-jokey because this is some Juan Pena-level "this is phenomenal, I had no idea this guy was this kinda good" stuff. Half jokey or not.. Who would most RS fans feel better about seeing warm up to come into a game with a FB/change up heavy repertoire? Whitlock, or Valdez? My guess is it's not even close. If I'm being honest, I'd rather Whitlock be starting tonight instead of Richards. I know it's early, but I feel like Richards has been really fortunate. He's walking way too many guys, and he doesn't seem to be fooling anyone.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 21, 2021 14:51:03 GMT -5
I think they should be playing Arroyo every day because he has more upside to the club due to only having two years of service time. I currently believe that everyone in the Arroyo/Marwin/Renfroe group is about equally good. They might as well give Arroyo every chance to surprise people and put up a 2.5 WAR season and turn into a valuable asset.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 21, 2021 15:15:04 GMT -5
Arroyo has a .441 BABIP in 44 plate appearances. Resetting that to .325 puts his OBP under .300. I'm excited by how well he's playing, but I don't think they're at a point where they should be reshuffling playing time significantly. There just hasn't been enough time to indicate that the players are different than we thought they were three weeks ago. Maybe give him one more start a week, then we get into mid-May and start really reevaluating. Another data point backing up the "Arroyo has been lucky" hypothesis: his wOBA is .394 and his xwOBA is .310. The differential between the two, which I guess you could call a measure of luck, is the 6th highest in the majors.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 21, 2021 15:19:36 GMT -5
On a related note, the 5th worst wOBA-xwOBA differential in the majors?
Bobby Dalbec, with a -.133 differential (.301 wOBA vs .434 xwOBA), which suggests that he's been really unlucky so far.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 21, 2021 15:24:57 GMT -5
No Arroyo vs the lefty tonight and Franchy in against the lefty is weird
Probably don’t expect Kay to go long then I would imagine
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Post by jdog2020 on Apr 21, 2021 15:34:55 GMT -5
No Arroyo vs the lefty tonight and Franchy in against the lefty is weird Probably don’t expect Kay to go long then I would imagine Thornton is getting the start for the Jays. He's a righty. He's an opener. Will only go a couple of innings. I hope the rain stays away. It's breezy out there!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2021 16:10:05 GMT -5
Another way of looking at the season so far:
Sox are 3 - 6 in wire-to-wire games, where the winning team never trailed.
They are 12 - 0 in games with a lead change.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 21, 2021 16:11:23 GMT -5
On a related note, the 5th worst wOBA-xwOBA differential in the majors? Bobby Dalbec, with a -.133 differential (.301 wOBA vs .434 xwOBA), which suggests that he's been really unlucky so far. He's just gotta keep doing what he's doing, and the results will catch up to the process.
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Post by jdog2020 on Apr 21, 2021 16:46:42 GMT -5
It's pretty nasty out right now. Bad storm. Hopefully, the worst part of it blows through in the next hour or so..
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Post by incandenza on Apr 21, 2021 16:49:58 GMT -5
On a related note, the 5th worst wOBA-xwOBA differential in the majors? Bobby Dalbec, with a -.133 differential (.301 wOBA vs .434 xwOBA), which suggests that he's been really unlucky so far. He's just gotta keep doing what he's doing, and the results will catch up to the process. Honestly, they already have: he has a 139 wRC+ since the 4th game of the season; 191 in his last 8 games.
Basically he just had a bad opening series against Baltimore and has been really good since.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 21, 2021 16:55:22 GMT -5
On a related note, the 5th worst wOBA-xwOBA differential in the majors? Bobby Dalbec, with a -.133 differential (.301 wOBA vs .434 xwOBA), which suggests that he's been really unlucky so far. He's just gotta keep doing what he's doing, and the results will catch up to the process. Does that include him already with strikeouts in more than 1/3 of his PA's? I guess he didn't look lost in all of those?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Apr 21, 2021 17:50:51 GMT -5
He's just gotta keep doing what he's doing, and the results will catch up to the process. Does that include him already with strikeouts in more than 1/3 of his PA's? I guess he didn't look lost in all of those? Yes, it includes him striking out that much. He was always going to strike out that much.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 21, 2021 17:52:00 GMT -5
He's just gotta keep doing what he's doing, and the results will catch up to the process. Does that include him already with strikeouts in more than 1/3 of his PA's? I guess he didn't look lost in all of those? Well yea, you'd obviously want him to get his K-rate as low as he can, but the point is that the quality of contact has been more than good enough to be a very productive hitter.
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Post by jdog2020 on Apr 21, 2021 18:05:42 GMT -5
7:40 Start
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 21, 2021 18:33:25 GMT -5
Does that include him already with strikeouts in more than 1/3 of his PA's? I guess he didn't look lost in all of those? Yes, it includes him striking out that much. He was always going to strike out that much. That may not be guaranteed. He's brought it down to, as you say, about a third of the time. But it was much higher, and over 40% last year. I think he may get under 30% this season as he figures out what pitchers are planning for him.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 21, 2021 18:45:46 GMT -5
Impatiently waiting for Richards to fix his command...
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Post by semperfisox on Apr 21, 2021 18:46:48 GMT -5
You are the weakest link
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Post by Guidas on Apr 21, 2021 18:48:06 GMT -5
Richards doing his best Nuke LaLoosh tonight.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 21, 2021 18:49:25 GMT -5
Eck seems off his game here in the 1st. He hasn't had a lot of colorful commentary to describe how terrible Richards hsa been.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 21, 2021 18:50:58 GMT -5
Guy seems to have issues in the first couple inning
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 21, 2021 18:52:23 GMT -5
I know this is a small thing, but I admire that play by Richards. Guy is really struggling and must be frustrated, so to stick with that play and make a nice good stretch takes focus.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 21, 2021 18:52:47 GMT -5
NYY 2 hits thru 4 inn.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 21, 2021 18:54:24 GMT -5
I can’t get over those glasses
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Post by congusgambler33 on Apr 21, 2021 19:05:49 GMT -5
Nothing like cheap runs walk,HBP and single. Good job richards.
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