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4/20-4/21 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 21, 2021 22:10:38 GMT -5
Such a shame. Taylor looked like he'd be a great bullpen piece after 2019, but relievers gonna reliever.
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Post by ajs1994 on Apr 21, 2021 22:11:05 GMT -5
IS Darwinzon hurt? Haven't seen anything, but hasn't pitched since 4/15. He hasn't been too good this year, but would much rather see him in a 1 run game than Taylor.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 21, 2021 22:12:20 GMT -5
Taylor’s WHIP at 3.00 — is that good?
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 21, 2021 22:12:52 GMT -5
IS Darwinzon hurt? Haven't seen anything, but hasn't pitched since 4/15. He hasn't been too good this year, but would much rather see him in a 1 run game than Taylor. He’s been pretty good this year. They had him warming up but went with Taylor. Odd.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 21, 2021 22:13:09 GMT -5
Richards, Brice, Taylor... all of our favorite players in one night. What a treat
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 21, 2021 22:17:42 GMT -5
Agreed, definitely a gamble and nothing to show for it so far. I'd also add that while Bloom likely evaluates the individual transactions I also suspect that he's focused on the big picture. This might be a 10M bogey (or less if he regains his magic later this year) and it's a clear disappointment, but that just means he's going to need to see his other transactions exceed their value by 10M for the offseason to break even. Whitlock alone might do that. Doesn’t doing nothing break even $0 for 0.0 WAR? At the moment, the 2018 veterans are the rocks of the team. The question marks and frustrations are all acquisitions from this off season. When you're given a budget of ~50M to spend and you spend $0 then you have a different problem. I'd agree the question marks are all the new guys, the 5 players with negative fWar are Marwin, Plawecki, Sawamura, Brice and... in a league of his own... Renfroe. My general point was that when you've got a group that big you'd expect some hits and misses there. In aggregate that cohort has 0.6 WAR which isn't great so far, especially when Andriese, Hernandez, and Whitlock account for 0.9 WAR. However, my rough math has that cohort at 6.7M per WAR which is close to league average. That's not including Arroyo, if we do then it's down to 3.4M per WAR and looking good so far.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Apr 21, 2021 22:19:26 GMT -5
How can you swing at ball four there? Brutal.
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 21, 2021 22:19:28 GMT -5
Kiké didn't want to take his walk to bring up the tying run...
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Post by soxfaninnj on Apr 21, 2021 22:20:00 GMT -5
What a stupid effing ab by Kiké
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 21, 2021 22:56:36 GMT -5
Guessing Mr Taylor will be the 1st reliever casualty this season. Shock to me, thought he had decent chance to rebound from his brutal 2020 season and either brice/valdez would be the 1st sent down/DFA'd. Don't think Taylor has much time left on the 26 man. only real question is will he be optioned, or outright cut.
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Post by jkfer98 on Apr 21, 2021 23:03:04 GMT -5
FWIW - starters have given up first inning run(s) in 5 of the last 6 games and 7 of the last 10. Hasn't really hurt us yet and they've settled in most of the time but it would still be nice to not have to play from behind every game.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Apr 21, 2021 23:17:41 GMT -5
this team could have had a ton of walks in several situations in this game, but they would rather swing at p[itches way outside the zone. It is good to be aggresive, but how much can you do with an outside pitch or one near the ground except a bloop or a weak ground out. That is real productive.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 21, 2021 23:50:49 GMT -5
That was a frustrating game on a lot of levels.
First Garrett Richards puts them in a 4-0 hole as he can't throw strikes - again. I have to say - he's been quite unimpressive. The best thing you can hope for him is a 2 run 5 IP performance. It's kind of the same with Pivetta and Perez as well.
I think that the rotation as is will make it tough for them to stay in first should the Yankees, Rays, and/or Jays get themselves straightened out and go on a run.
I honestly think that if the team is to have a real lasting shot at finishing 1st this year, they'll have to fill out their rotation with 2 or 3 of Chris Sale/Tanner Houck/Garrett Whitlock/Connor Seabold as the season moves along. The Sox have two quality starters - hope they stay healthy, but the bottom 3 are very questionable. The good news is that they do have in-house solutions that could work.
I hated seeing Taylor coming into a 1 run game. Between Brice and him, that's two pitchers they can do without. They'll need to replace one of them on the roster. The other can go to another position player - probably Santana at this point.
The situational hitting was terrible tonight, but that'll happen. Verdugo had 3 bad ABs toward the end of the game which isn't like him. They had their shot in the 5th with the tying runs on base but blew a big chance to score again and then when they inched to within 4-3 they got over-agressive although it's not the worst thing in the world to see Dalbec make contact when they need him to. I just keep waiting for the HRs from him, and I think they'll come and in bunches...but it would nice to see even one at this point.
But the final frustration was watching Arroyo lead off the 9th with a hit (that was actually great to see), and then Kiké Hernandez, knowing that the tying run could be on deck, swings at a bad 3-1 pitch and gets himself out. This is where the Sox lack of walks and overagressiveness can hurt.
Their team BABIP won't stay as good as it has been so they'll need to take walks more frequently. If they swing and miss at a pitch in the strike zone, so be it, but the chasing at times....and honestly I'm ok with ending the Kiké Hernandez leadoff experiment. I know he's hit well in the 1st inning of each game, but with him not taking walks, sooner his BA will lower to the point his OBP will be about the same and kind of inadequate. For the time being, as long as he's hitting, I'd prefer Arroyo there if Verdugo isn't considered by Cora to be an option.
It probably won't matter because I know Arroyo's average will come down to earth and he's not that selective a hitter although he had a nice AB in the 8th with his walk. But for the time being, I have a good feeling that Christian Arroyo can be the 2006 Mark Loretta to Jeter Downs eventually taking the job the way Pedroia did (Ok, I don't think Downs will be ROY and then MVP the following year, but you get the idea). If Arroyo is Mark Loretta 2006 v2, then that's a good thing.
It's just one loss and they're playing well, but it feels like today is the kind of game that you win when you're firing on all cylinders and they're kind of settling down from that 9 game winning streak.
Like I said, the good news is that there are in-house solutions that can help.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 22, 2021 0:53:48 GMT -5
I don't get this hack and slash mentality Bloom went after this offseason. Each of the acquisitions has it and really.. JD, Bogaerts are the only 2 of the starting 9 can really count on to not swing at pitches well outside of the plate. There was a time, not long ago when Boston taught patience as a virtue and being selective. Those were winning teams. i cannot stand seeing these guys hack at pitches half a foot low, or outside the plate on a continual basis. Pitchers know these guys will do it and use it against them. how hard is it to get thru a head?
where are those coaches in the system who taught patience also. many of the kids of late have abandoned that philosophy as well, tho will give a tiny credit to Dalbec, whenever he's not wildly swinging at everything.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Apr 22, 2021 4:03:31 GMT -5
Oh my god. I just realized we're going to add Jarren Duran, Gilberto Jimenez, Jeter Downs, Triston Casas, Nick Yorke, rested arm Noah Song, and a top 4 pick to this core guys. We're going to be so good.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 22, 2021 4:46:04 GMT -5
I don't get this hack and slash mentality Bloom went after this offseason. Each of the acquisitions has it and really.. JD, Bogaerts are the only 2 of the starting 9 can really count on to not swing at pitches well outside of the plate. There was a time, not long ago when Boston taught patience as a virtue and being selective. Those were winning teams. i cannot stand seeing these guys hack at pitches half a foot low, or outside the plate on a continual basis. Pitchers know these guys will do it and use it against them. how hard is it to get thru a head? where are those coaches in the system who taught patience also. many of the kids of late have abandoned that philosophy as well, tho will give a tiny credit to Dalbec, whenever he's not wildly swinging at everything. Very interesting stat ... The Sox have a better than-average wOBA on pitches outside the zone (ranking 11th), but a bad xwOBA (ranking 24th).
They have an off-the-scale wOBA - xWOBA, at .036. The gap between them and runner-up Phillies at .012 is bigger than the gap between the Phillies and the Brewers at #21 (-.010).
They rank 15th in SO, 23rd in BB + HBP.
They rank 1st in number of balls pulled in play, and 3rd in wOBA on them. They have more such balls in play than the two teams ahead of them combined. So they're far and away the team that has added the most value by doing this.
For balls hit straightaway, they rank 3rd in number of events, and 3rd in wOBA. The two teams with higher wOBA's rank 15th and 16th. But balls hit straightaway have a negative wOBA - xwOBA, and the Sox haven't added any value here, just greatly minimized the damage.
Opposite field, they rank 16th in quantity and 22nd in quality.
The added value here is in being aggressive pulling pitches outside the zone. Pulled balls always have a high wOBA - xwOBA. They've done it 39 times and have hit .385 / .564, a .410 wOBA.
The guys rocking it on inside pitches are CV (2/4, 2B), JDM and Arroyo (both 1/2, 2B), Dalbec (1/1, 2B), Verdugo (1/1). On outside pitches (!), it's Xander (2/4, 2B), Kiké (2/3, 2B), CV (1/1, 2B), Devers (1/2), and Franchy (1/1). Kiké is also 2/6 on inside pitches pulled.
Basically, so far, it's a team producing somewhat better than average results on pitches outside the zone, by having below-average discipline but way above average success pulling pitches, with 8 inside and 7 outside pitches pulled for hits, 7 of them doubles.
The interesting further question is ... does such a lineup come with other correlated advantages? One thought that comes immediately to mind (which may well not correlate to being correct!) is that guys who have the skill of pulling pitches outside the zone for hits may also be guys who hit good pitching.
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Post by unitspin on Apr 22, 2021 4:52:09 GMT -5
Agreed, definitely a gamble and nothing to show for it so far. I'd also add that while Bloom likely evaluates the individual transactions I also suspect that he's focused on the big picture. This might be a 10M bogey (or less if he regains his magic later this year) and it's a clear disappointment, but that just means he's going to need to see his other transactions exceed their value by 10M for the offseason to break even. Whitlock alone might do that. As a whole, IMO, Bloom has done a marvelous job!! I am one of his biggest fans. Pivetta and Seabold was a steal compared to what he gave up, the same goes for the Moreland deal. Mookie was gone!!!! I said on several sites two years before that Mookie would sign with the Dodgers as they had the money and Mookie wanted the glitz, and rather than let him walk Bloom got Verdugo and company. Arauz was a nice piece, Whitlock was a great find!! Bloom is fantastic, but no one bats 1.000, and Richards was a miss (but it was a very thin market for starters) oh well it happens..... He has hit on literally every bullpen arm he has added. Id say he has done a great job, as well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 22, 2021 6:06:11 GMT -5
In important news, NYY lost 4-1 5 singles. They did get 6 BB, but gave up 8 BB They're looking happless.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2021 6:27:42 GMT -5
Friendly reminder that Garrett Richards has the lowest career ERA, FIP, and WHIP of any starter on the active roster As they say in the financial industry: Past performance is no indicator of future results.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 22, 2021 8:05:52 GMT -5
Friendly reminder that Garrett Richards has the lowest career ERA, FIP, and WHIP of any starter on the active roster As they say in the financial industry: Past performance is no indicator of future results. They also say not to sell low after two weeks of poor performance.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 22, 2021 8:47:04 GMT -5
In important news, NYY lost 4-1 5 singles. They did get 6 BB, but gave up 8 BB They're looking happless. Their pitching has usually been good but the team is batting .205...atrocious. It's nice to see Sanchez making a concerted effort to again drop below Mendoza and Stanton needing a snorkel to sustain life. Voit's return will give them better balance tho. I'm enjoying it while I can.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 22, 2021 13:53:36 GMT -5
Richards, Brice, Taylor... all of our favorite players in one night. What a treat Brice and Taylor have not been very good, so they pitch when Boston is loosing which usually happens when Richards pitches. This may be a frequent combo.
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Post by soxinjersey on Apr 22, 2021 18:22:13 GMT -5
Reading this thread, I've thanked my lucky stars often that many of you are not in the RS FO making personnel decisions. If you jettison everyone who has a bad game or bad series of games, you won't have a team by September!
I can remember when the general feeling was that once the kids get out of school for the summer and warm weather is here, things in MLB get serious. Until then, not too much should be made of early season hot or cold streaks. Even today, how many teams will be sounding the alarm if they are at .500 on June 1? Most teams would hope for better but would be happy not to have worse.
I'm often surprised as I read these threads by how rarely contributors try to imagine the psychology of players and teams. It has a much greater impact than many of you seem to realize: the RS played under a cloud in 2019 and a darker one in 2020, and it was palpable in their effort and performance. This year, that cloud has gone and good vibes have returned. Again, this change is palpable, and the return of positive energy is affecting performance, as we can all see.
So what's the deal with Garrett Richards, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, and all the other newbies? You've all changed schools and jobs, probably a lot of you have made the jump from JV to varsity. Transitions are often hard and full of pressure coming from inside and outside. Some people embrace new environments, more adjust with difficulty. To my mind, Richards is pressing, so is Renfroe (and Cordero and probably Arroyo). They don't want to blow this opportunity, but nobody plays well when they're tight. I hope they'll settle in and show us what they can do. I also hope that Richards, as an older player, will find his stuff and command when the weather warms and his arm and body get into game shape.
One thing I liked in the second game against the Jays, despite the loss, was how well the bullpen pitched until the 9th. When a GM and manager plan out a season, they certainly imagine how many times each reliever can pitch over the course of a year. Traditionally, most top relievers will appear in somewhere around 60 games (Barnes averaged 66 from 2016-9), so there will be probably 50-60 games when you would like to use them but can't.
You need more than just three guys who can throw in high-leverage situations, and I like the way Cora is giving guys, including Taylor and Brice, a chance to contribute when it counts. Good teams find players (Velasquez, Johnson, Brasier in 2018) who out-perform expectations. Who will they be this year? You have to start identifying them now. I was ready to send Valdez to Worcester a month ago, but he now looks like he might be one of them.
It's a long season. The Sox are going to need all the pitching they can find (including Richards) and develop if they hope to be playing in October.
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