2021 national rankings (in season)

Figured I'd drop this info here since some of you might not know of or read our website:

Prospects1500 Tiers:
Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years
Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

1. The Duran/Mayer discussion is heard and valid. Ben and I still maintain Duran can and will be a star, and we believe in his 1 ranking over Mayer (for now). It's likely he's graduated from our list when we update it in January for preseason 2022, and if he's not over 130 AB, we'll have to see how he fares rest of this season and Mayer could make the jump to #1.

2. If you look at the definition of our Tier 3, again, we believe in our ranking of Yorke. As we monitor his success and movement through the system, maybe he does move into that Tier 2 (or possibly even Tier 1) conversation. Still way too early.

Thanks for hearing me out. Here's the link to our full article and list of you want to see it.
www.prospects1500.com/al-east/red-sox/boston-red-sox-2021-midseason-top-50-prospects/

Would you trade is a very bogus way to evaluate prospect lists. That would be slanted towards proximity to the majors. Duran and Mayer both have equal team control, one is in the majors, one has never seen a pro pitch. Pretty much every GM without a crowded outfield would make that swap without hesitating. Prospect rankings should be range of outcomes times probability of reaching those outcomes and they evolve over time.

I have the two as close, maybe about equal. If you look at Law's wording, he did as well. My quibble with these lists is Downs, I watched pretty much all of the ATS last year and his offense was very unimpressive and he's done nothing to change my mind this year. I'm actually hoping the Sox sell high on Downs.

BA (Speier) released their new top 30 for the Red Sox:

1. Triston Casas
2. Jarren Duran
3. Marcelo Mayer
4. Jeter Downs
5. Tanner Houck
6. Brayan Bello
7. Bryan Mata
8. Nick Yorke
9. Jay Groome
10. Gilberto Jimenez
11. Chris Murphy
12. Connor Seabold
13. Blaze Jordan
14. Thad Ward
15. Wilkelman Gonzalez
16. Josh Winckowski
17. Brainer Bonaci
18. Matthew Lugo
19. Connor Wong
20. Miguel Bleis
21. Chih-Jung Liu
22. Kutter Crawford
23. Brandon Howlett
24. Hudson Potts
25. Ceddanne Rafaela
26. Jeisson Rosario
27. Jeremy Wu-Yelland
28. Brendan Cellucci
29. Luis Perales
30. Noah Song

Why are you surprised to see Song in there? What has changed since the start of the season that makes you think he should fall out of the rankings?

What I don't get is the drop to 30. This is what the piece says about Song, which is not new:



If you're dropping him for this reason, you had him too high to begin with or weren't paying attention.

I should say that one thing we noticed doing the rankings process for the next update is that once you get past like, 15, you could rank like 40 or more guys in nearly any order. Like I've got no problem with Potts at 24, but he's around 40 on my list.

Ranking the system right now is brutally difficult given the lack of track record on a lot of these guys and it being unclear how much to make of this season.

Don't forget - they have Winckowski at 16.

Link?

Nothing has changed since the start of the season (or since he was drafted) & I believe that he never should of been ranked at all. He’s not a prospect, he’s a Military Officer.

Naval Aviator, according to my point of reference (Top Gun, of course).

I don't agree with keeping Song in any top 10 lists. He hasn't played in 2 years. When he starts next year and if he pitches well then send him rocketing up the list. Until then it's kind of crazy to have him over more deserving prospects. Definitely would have Houck and Seabold over him for sure.