SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/27-4/28 Red Sox @ Mets Series Thread
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 27, 2021 21:37:49 GMT -5
I agree, many expensive, long term contracts are regrettable: Crawford, Sandoval, Hanley, Rusney...... .....but yes it is still early.... Betts had a BA of .254 and OPS .792 (both very un-Betts) at the beginning of the day. Lindor career OPS is 829, good for a ss especially one that fields as well as him but not exactly elite. 10 years 341 mil is a lot to give to any player. He can't really afford much drop off from his career hitting numbers or that deal is going to look bad in a hurry. I am sure his New Yorkitis will pass....there is probably a vaccine for it (lol - just kidding). Lindor may not hit as well as he did while playing for (the team formerly know as the Indians), but I am sure he will hit better than an OPS of .593. I agree with you that it may not be enough for the value of the contract that he signed. Most big contracts now give me night mares of years past (kind of like Scrooge complete with Sandoval as Scrooge and Carl Crawford as Tiny Tim) lol.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 27, 2021 21:54:12 GMT -5
Now he just needs to pitch that way for 20 more starts and we might have something. Or his era will be over 6 after his next start. So by my math all it takes to win unitspin's love and respect is 147 innings with 210 strikeouts and a 1.29 ERA. Scratch that - should Richards live up to those numbers (numbers that probably haven't been achieved by anyone in the history of baseball) he would not have unitspin's love and respect as this feat would only put him in the "might have something" category. Seems reasonable. There too many Unitspins on Mlbtraderumors thinking that the Red Sox should sign 5 Garrett Cole for their rotation and 9 Mookie Betts for there position players for a grand total salary of $4.2 billion and anything less was the owners being cheap.....I no longer visit mlb traderumors.....
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 27, 2021 22:39:45 GMT -5
1) Gee, despite all the mockery, it turns out that there is, after all, a positive correlation between a high curveball spin rate and having a curveball that causes opposing hitters to metaphorically crap their pants!
More seriously, one of the reasons I liked this signing is that he had not just the elite spin rate, but excellent results for much of his career, and yet he never threw it a lot. That's a radical idea that his previous teams missed: throw your best pitch more often. Well, tonight had the second-most curves he's ever thrown in a start.
2) In the presser, Richards said that they had made an adjustment allowing him to repeat his delivery, and that it allowed him to "gather over the rubber." He used that phrase twice. DiNardo interpreted that as gathering his hands, and you can see that in the delivery comparison GIF.
3) As of right now, it seems almost silly that our rotation for next year has Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Richards, Pivetta, Houck, and Seabold.
4) Richards went from 52.2% strikes in his previous start, to 75.3%. He threw one more pitch but had 22 more strikes (and only one was a gift, strike 2 to Peterson in the 5th). I'd love to know where that ranks in B2B starts of 90+ pitches.
The bullpen could only manage 73.1%.
5) Richards over the first 8 batters threw 9 pitches when he was behind in the count. He threw just 2 over the remaining 18, with streaks of 3, 5, and 8 straight first-pitch strikes.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Apr 27, 2021 22:46:39 GMT -5
Nice the Red Sox can win any kind of game. Low scoring affairs and blowouts. Really impressed with how solid this team is. Alex Cora should just get a statue.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,518
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 27, 2021 23:00:08 GMT -5
That was a heartening win. Richards was fantastic. With command it's amazing how good he can be. You can kind of see it. If it's there he can dominate. If it's not he's lucky to get through 3 innings. Which one do you get? Dave Bush did some great work with him. Now the question is will he be able to consistently repeat that modified/simplified delivery of his?
If he can then you boast a top 3 of E-Rod/Eovaldi/Richards as you pray for health and then you only have two spots to worry about about but with plenty of viable candidates to get the job done. All while not killing your bullpen twice out of five starts rather than thrice out of five starts, which is a big difference.
But you need to see some consistency before you start to count on it, so we know it's there....now we just have to see it more often, and with him, it's easy to see if the command is there or not.
And now Dalbec is finally on the board. I wouldn't be shocked if he went on a spree over the next two weeks. I don't expect any tomorrow. With DeGrom going tomorrow, we'll let's just say there's no shame in losing if they don't hit much tomorrow. DeGrom has been ridiculously lights out. So it's a damn good thing that they won today, the game they had to win of the two games.
Meanwhile, Matt Andriese has indeed entered my circle of trust that only he, Whitlock, and Matt Barnes occupy out of the bullpen.
I'm glad Cora went to Andriese over Ottavino in the 8th and it was great to see zero drama in the 9th from Barnes. Those 2-1 games are tough to win and can be nerve wracking but between Richards, Andriese, and Ottavino they made it smooth sailing.
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Apr 27, 2021 23:08:30 GMT -5
It’s probably premature to get TOO giddy about what Richards can be but man if he can pitch even close to this going forward this is going to be a formidable team.
As an aside, I don’t think it’s a wild prediction to say that Perez will be the odd man out of the rotation as some point this season. Considering Houck shoving and Sale hopefully returning at some point. Good problem to have.
|
|
orion09
Veteran
Posts: 1,195
Member is Online
|
Post by orion09 on Apr 28, 2021 2:22:47 GMT -5
1) Gee, despite all the mockery, it turns out that there is, after all, a positive correlation between a high curveball spin rate and having a curveball that causes opposing hitters to metaphorically crap their pants!
More seriously, one of the reasons I liked this signing is that he had not just the elite spin rate, but excellent results for much of his career, and yet he never threw it a lot. That's a radical idea that his previous teams missed: throw your best pitch more often. Well, tonight had the second-most curves he's ever thrown in a start. I guess I had a vague idea that Richards had high spin rates, but I didn't realize how impressive they were. For anyone else who missed the boat, his 2021 avg 4FB spin rate is 2550 rpm, good for 93rd percentile. That puts him just below Gerrit Cole and just above Michael Kopech. His avg curve spin rate is 3236 rpm, best in the majors and a full 100 rpm above the next challenger (Dustin May). Pretty cool stuff.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 28, 2021 2:31:24 GMT -5
It’s probably premature to get TOO giddy about what Richards can be but man if he can pitch even close to this going forward this is going to be a formidable team. As an aside, I don’t think it’s a wild prediction to say that Perez will be the odd man out of the rotation as some point this season. Considering Houck shoving and Sale hopefully returning at some point. Good problem to have. I am a big fan of Houck. That said, you'd be removing someone with an inning eater history and replacing him with someone who will have innings limitations. Doesn't sound all that likely to me. You'd be better served putting Whitlock in the rotation if there was a move to be made.
|
|
ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,405
|
Post by ianrs on Apr 28, 2021 2:32:06 GMT -5
Garrett Richards absolutely dominated tonight. Incredible work from Dave Bush and the Red Sox coaching staff. You can't say enough about the coaching staff to be honest.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 28, 2021 5:10:02 GMT -5
Richards is the new Buchholz. LOL
|
|
|
Post by worldbfree on Apr 28, 2021 5:29:25 GMT -5
Why are you so butthurt about a Sox player performing? Now he just needs to pitch that way for 20 more starts and we might have something. Or his era will be over 6 after his next start. No pitcher in baseball will pitch that way for the next 20 starts. Richards will have ups and downs like most players.
|
|
|
Post by unitspin on Apr 28, 2021 6:02:28 GMT -5
The flip flopping is laughable on here. If Richards is all of a sudden a stud then kluber is in the hunt for the cy. I'd take flip-flopping posters over your schadenfreude any day. Too bad everyone can't be as consistent as you. Consistently right is what ive been. Pretty sure I said that their April schedule was about as easy as it could get, so if they didn't pile up wins this teams was in trouble. I said that the bullpen would regress which they have over the last week and a half. Had the red sox pegged at 3rd or fourth in the division, do not really see that changing. It was a good game last night but if your depending on richards, good luck with that. I guess living in reality is frowned upon these days.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
|
Post by nomar on Apr 28, 2021 7:00:29 GMT -5
There’s no way to easily quantitate this, but this team just wins the 50/50 games that no Sox team has in a few years. I agree with the 2014 comps where you’re waiting for regression that just doesn’t come. Hope I’m not wrong. Do you mean 2013 because 2014 was a rough season? Yup lol my bad
|
|
|
Post by jbsox on Apr 28, 2021 7:43:40 GMT -5
1) Gee, despite all the mockery, it turns out that there is, after all, a positive correlation between a high curveball spin rate and having a curveball that causes opposing hitters to metaphorically crap their pants!
More seriously, one of the reasons I liked this signing is that he had not just the elite spin rate, but excellent results for much of his career, and yet he never threw it a lot. That's a radical idea that his previous teams missed: throw your best pitch more often. Well, tonight had the second-most curves he's ever thrown in a start.
2) In the presser, Richards said that they had made an adjustment allowing him to repeat his delivery, and that it allowed him to "gather over the rubber." He used that phrase twice. DiNardo interpreted that as gathering his hands, and you can see that in the delivery comparison GIF.
3) As of right now, it seems almost silly that our rotation for next year has Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Richards, Pivetta, Houck, and Seabold.
4) Richards went from 52.2% strikes in his previous start, to 75.3%. He threw one more pitch but had 22 more strikes (and only one was a gift, strike 2 to Peterson in the 5th). I'd love to know where that ranks in B2B starts of 90+ pitches.
The bullpen could only manage 73.1%.
5) Richards over the first 8 batters threw 9 pitches when he was behind in the count. He threw just 2 over the remaining 18, with streaks of 3, 5, and 8 straight first-pitch strikes.
Regarding point 3 maybe you could even add Ward and Groome to the mix depending on how they look this year. It’s certainly nice to have a surplus of starting pitching, but I wonder since Bloom talks a lot of about sustainability if he flips 1 or 2 of those guys for other needs. Maybe not during the season, but next offseason. When you talk about sustainability I do worry about the future outlook of the back end of the bullpen considering this is Barnes and Ottivino’s last year of their contracts, and spending big on free agent relievers is risky business. It would be nice to have 1 or 2 more possible long term controllable back end relievers to go along with D Hernandez. Maybe there is a surprise or 2 like Sawamura stepping into that role next year.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 28, 2021 7:58:46 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 28, 2021 8:06:27 GMT -5
1) Gee, despite all the mockery, it turns out that there is, after all, a positive correlation between a high curveball spin rate and having a curveball that causes opposing hitters to metaphorically crap their pants!
More seriously, one of the reasons I liked this signing is that he had not just the elite spin rate, but excellent results for much of his career, and yet he never threw it a lot. That's a radical idea that his previous teams missed: throw your best pitch more often. Well, tonight had the second-most curves he's ever thrown in a start.
2) In the presser, Richards said that they had made an adjustment allowing him to repeat his delivery, and that it allowed him to "gather over the rubber." He used that phrase twice. DiNardo interpreted that as gathering his hands, and you can see that in the delivery comparison GIF.
3) As of right now, it seems almost silly that our rotation for next year has Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Richards, Pivetta, Houck, and Seabold.
4) Richards went from 52.2% strikes in his previous start, to 75.3%. He threw one more pitch but had 22 more strikes (and only one was a gift, strike 2 to Peterson in the 5th). I'd love to know where that ranks in B2B starts of 90+ pitches.
The bullpen could only manage 73.1%.
5) Richards over the first 8 batters threw 9 pitches when he was behind in the count. He threw just 2 over the remaining 18, with streaks of 3, 5, and 8 straight first-pitch strikes.
Regarding point 3 maybe you could even add Ward and Groome to the mix depending on how they look this year. It’s certainly nice to have a surplus of starting pitching, but I wonder since Bloom talks a lot of about sustainability if he flips 1 or 2 of those guys for other needs. Maybe not during the season, but next offseason. When you talk about sustainability I do worry about the future outlook of the back end of the bullpen considering this is Barnes and Ottivino’s last year of their contracts, and spending big on free agent relievers is risky business. It would be nice to have 1 or 2 more possible long term controllable back end relievers to go along with D Hernandez. Maybe there is a surprise or 2 like Sawamura stepping into that role next year. This may be an unpopular take but... With all those guys capable of being backend starters it sets up for a rotation that has a top 3 with 4 guys piggybacking the other two spots. Not such a radical idea anymore as you just need the horses to pull it off.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 28, 2021 9:04:36 GMT -5
I'd take flip-flopping posters over your schadenfreude any day. Too bad everyone can't be as consistent as you. Consistently right is what ive been. Pretty sure I said that their April schedule was about as easy as it could get, so if they didn't pile up wins this teams was in trouble. I said that the bullpen would regress which they have over the last week and a half. Had the red sox pegged at 3rd or fourth in the division, do not really see that changing. It was a good game last night but if your depending on richards, good luck with that. I guess living in reality is frowned upon these days. Everyone could see that the April schedule was easy with 16 home games vs 11 road. It is also obvious that pitching numbers will regress, because warmer weather will bring more baseballs flying out of Fenway. I bet Eric could give us some incredible numbers showing April as a dreadful month to hit in Fenway. I wrote this a couple days ago. “ The Red Sox have given up an AL league leading 14 HRs vs the 2nd fewest is 19, and the league average is 24........”. I bet Mookie enjoys the LA weather a lot more than playing in Boston in April, but is for another post. So do not hurt your arm patting yourself on the back for things all of us can see...hell the Red Sox and Yankees do not even play their first series until early June.....
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,518
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 28, 2021 9:27:10 GMT -5
1) Gee, despite all the mockery, it turns out that there is, after all, a positive correlation between a high curveball spin rate and having a curveball that causes opposing hitters to metaphorically crap their pants! More seriously, one of the reasons I liked this signing is that he had not just the elite spin rate, but excellent results for much of his career, and yet he never threw it a lot. That's a radical idea that his previous teams missed: throw your best pitch more often. Well, tonight had the second-most curves he's ever thrown in a start. I guess I had a vague idea that Richards had high spin rates, but I didn't realize how impressive they were. For anyone else who missed the boat, his 2021 avg 4FB spin rate is 2550 rpm, good for 93rd percentile. That puts him just below Gerrit Cole and just above Michael Kopech. His avg curve spin rate is 3236 rpm, best in the majors and a full 100 rpm above the next challenger (Dustin May). Pretty cool stuff. I'm at the point where I don't care about spin rates unless the pitcher can command his pitches. I mean, we heard about Colten Brewer, but he can't get anybody out consistently and he's not exactly a strike thrower either. So if you got your command and have a spin rate, you can do amazing things, but if you don't have your command, then it really doesn't matter. I guess it's no different than a batter who can smash the ball 500 feet, but can't get to that power in a game setting because they can't handle the strike zone. Or to be even more basic, it makes me think you can be as fast as hell but if you don't know how to run the bases.....the A's learned that lesson in the 1970s with Herb Washington, the track star, who was as fast as they come, but had no idea how to be a baserunner (pickoffs, caught stealings).
|
|
|
Post by coachmac on Apr 28, 2021 10:00:59 GMT -5
Question for posters: Is there a way to block or ignore the anti-Sox,mom's basement dwelling, social warrior trolls like unitspin who rejoice when Sox lose?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
|
Post by jimoh on Apr 28, 2021 10:07:24 GMT -5
I agree, many expensive, long term contracts are regrettable: Crawford, Sandoval, Hanley, Rusney...... .....but yes it is still early.... Betts had a BA of .254 and OPS .792 (both very un-Betts) at the beginning of the day. Lindor career OPS is 829, good for a ss especially one that fields as well as him but not exactly elite. 10 years 341 mil is a lot to give to any player. He can't really afford much drop off from his career hitting numbers or that deal is going to look bad in a hurry. Why do people cite CAREER OPS for players who break in at 21? Last three full seasons he was .842, .871, .854.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,171
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Apr 28, 2021 10:15:13 GMT -5
Lindor’s contract is obviously too much for him strictly as a player, good as he may be. But it was never really about matching money to WAR or whatever. This is the Mets, for god’s sake, team two in NY, coming out of a period of miserable ownership. They had to make an immediate headline that said “we will now spend.” So Lindor was as much about PR, getting a new face of the franchise, etc. The gamble is as much that he’ll be beloved as he’ll be great.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,722
Member is Online
|
Post by mobaz on Apr 28, 2021 11:36:14 GMT -5
1) Gee, despite all the mockery, it turns out that there is, after all, a positive correlation between a high curveball spin rate and having a curveball that causes opposing hitters to metaphorically crap their pants!
More seriously, one of the reasons I liked this signing is that he had not just the elite spin rate, but excellent results for much of his career, and yet he never threw it a lot. That's a radical idea that his previous teams missed: throw your best pitch more often. Well, tonight had the second-most curves he's ever thrown in a start.
His prior teams (and Richards himself) may have just missed it, but I wonder if there's any other reason. Left over worries from injuries or wear and tear, blister concerns, etc. Hopefully he can keep it up! It was very encouraging to see his mechanics and stuff reach potential.
|
|
manfred
Veteran
Posts: 11,171
Member is Online
|
Post by manfred on Apr 28, 2021 11:38:27 GMT -5
One thing about his curve that was a bit weird: he seems to expose his hand as he brings it back, and his finger is clearly straight out... can’t hitters pick that up? (Obviously seemed not tonight, but I wonder if that might ever be an issue).
|
|
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,432
|
Post by shagworthy on Apr 28, 2021 12:07:08 GMT -5
One thing about his curve that was a bit weird: he seems to expose his hand as he brings it back, and his finger is clearly straight out... can’t hitters pick that up? (Obviously seemed not tonight, but I wonder if that might ever be an issue). I'm not sure if it's that obvious to the hitter, they don't have the benefit of the birds eye view camera and super slow mo (Unless they are Wade Boggs) but it bears watching I guess. I didn't even know he had a curve, let alone one as filthy as that one was last night. His first few starts his slider just didn't seem to do much other than cement mix up there, but if he can get both working with his fastball and reliably place them he's a totally different guy. It's one start, but it was a huge step in the right direction.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2021 12:07:27 GMT -5
One thing about his curve that was a bit weird: he seems to expose his hand as he brings it back, and his finger is clearly straight out... can’t hitters pick that up? (Obviously seemed not tonight, but I wonder if that might ever be an issue). Great question!
I'm pretty sure that the finger off the ball isn't visible in time to react to it consciously. I mean, if you're guessing curveball, it'll help you a little bit because you see it fractionally before you see the curveball spin. But I'm not sure that a hitter can focus on something like that successfully and not mess themselves up. Pitch recognition is best done unconsciously. That's why guys spend years in the minors. It's also why so many catchers bloom late as hitters--they are seeing way more pitches than everyone else, and even though they're seeing them from a different eye level than they would while hitting, eventually the brain improves the learned translation between visible spin and resulting movement.
So then it comes down to reacting unconsciously, via procedural ("muscle") memory. In theory, guys who have seen Richards a lot would start to pick up the curve unusually quickly. A guy who had a curve like that who played 3 or 4 years in a division might lose an edge over the hitters in the division who had seen him 4 times a year on average ... but then you just throw that pitch less often to those handful of guys!
|
|
|