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manfred
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Post by manfred on May 28, 2021 21:13:07 GMT -5
Brantley.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 28, 2021 21:39:11 GMT -5
How do you figure Brantley? He carries an AAV of $16M with the Astros and would have put the RS well over the LT threshold, which they obviously wanted to avoid. We had this conversation before and I noted that signing Brantley would have been a move to make if you were optimistic about the team's chances of contending. You said that no, you weren't optimistc. Sooooo, if you thought the team was crap, why would you have wanted them to go over the LT and start the clock on the next reset? Brantley, BTW, has accounted for .7 WAR and just went on the 10-day DL. KKH (of whom, I'm not a fan) has put up 1 WAR, provides more versatility, and makes less than half as much as Brantley.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 29, 2021 8:00:40 GMT -5
I think the point is that it wasn't Hernandez or Brantley. You could've had both.
That said, the injuries were one problem and here they are. Let's see how the rest of the season goes.
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Post by patford on May 29, 2021 8:13:30 GMT -5
I knew Betts was scuffling but he's now down to.240 after an 0-6. I never understood why the Dodgers prioritized him. Even at his best he wasn't really an area of need as the Dodgers already had a lot of weapons and Verdugo was clearly pretty good. It almost seemed like a reactionary move to hurt the Sox rather than something the Dodgers needed.
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Post by incandenza on May 29, 2021 9:13:06 GMT -5
I knew Betts was scuffling but he's now down to.240 after an 0-6. I never understood why the Dodgers prioritized him. Even at his best he wasn't really an area of need as the Dodgers already had a lot of weapons and Verdugo was clearly pretty good. It almost seemed like a reactionary move to hurt the Sox rather than something the Dodgers needed. I mentioned that there are some downward trends in Mookie's stats myself in the other thread, but I think we ought to hold our horses on implying that he isn't a phenomenal player. He's battled a couple of injuries this season (which usually turns out to be the explanation when a young player with a great track record unaccountably slumps), and yet he's still close to a 5 WAR/150 pace.
I think the reason the Dodgers traded for Betts is that he made them a better team, and in fact he already helped them win a World Series in his first season there. You could make the argument that they'd set themselves up better for the long term if they hadn't made the trade, but it's not like their motivations were mysterious.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 29, 2021 9:42:30 GMT -5
I think the point is that it wasn't Hernandez or Brantley. You could've had both. That said, the injuries were one problem and here they are. Let's see how the rest of the season goes. How could they have done that and stayed below $210M to start the season? Fangraphs has them at $207.66M. As far as I can tell, the only combination of two off-season acquisitions they could have NOT made in order to fit Brantley in would have been Garrett Richards and Adam Ottavino. They combine for $18.15M in AAV. But GR and AO have combined for 75 IP at ERA-pluses of 114 and 145 respectively. With the Houck and Seabold injuries, not having Richards would have left them pretty exposed once every five days.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2021 9:30:48 GMT -5
I think the point is that it wasn't Hernandez or Brantley. You could've had both. That said, the injuries were one problem and here they are. Let's see how the rest of the season goes. How could they have done that and stayed below $210M to start the season? Fangraphs has them at $207.66M. As far as I can tell, the only combination of two off-season acquisitions they could have NOT made in order to fit Brantley in would have been Garrett Richards and Adam Ottavino. They combine for $18.15M in AAV. But GR and AO have combined for 75 IP at ERA-pluses of 114 and 145 respectively. With the Houck and Seabold injuries, not having Richards would have left them pretty exposed once every five days. They didn't necessarily need to stay under. Even if the goal was to stay under you can make trades in-season.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 30, 2021 10:25:37 GMT -5
How could they have done that and stayed below $210M to start the season? Fangraphs has them at $207.66M. As far as I can tell, the only combination of two off-season acquisitions they could have NOT made in order to fit Brantley in would have been Garrett Richards and Adam Ottavino. They combine for $18.15M in AAV. But GR and AO have combined for 75 IP at ERA-pluses of 114 and 145 respectively. With the Houck and Seabold injuries, not having Richards would have left them pretty exposed once every five days. They didn't necessarily need to stay under. Even if the goal was to stay under you can make trades in-season. As discussed previously, this is not a reasonable plan. If you are losing, then selling off pieces to stay under, while acquiring prospects makes sense. But if you are competing for the playoffs, which the Red Sox are doing right now (without an extra OFer), then selling off prospects is a statement to fans that your team isn't trying to win for which the owners, GM and manager will never hear the end (and will lead to the GM getting fired as a scape goat). This was never going to happen - it's an interesting theoretical that holds no place in reality. But it seems like we're rehashing a well discussed off-season topic.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2021 10:53:15 GMT -5
If they compete this year they are likely going to add and, therefore, go over. If that happens, who cares from where they started?
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 30, 2021 11:33:57 GMT -5
I'm going to wait and see on that one. They've hewed so closely to the cap that I'm a bit skeptical the team won't use that as a ceiling, artificial or not. Going over likely means bringing in talent that's signed for a few years into the future, so planning around that becomes the norm and it can mean ditching other players you'd like to keep.
When ownership spoke to the idea that other teams seem to be able to compete while keeping their salaries in some range, I took it seriously. They're not going to Oakland's or Tampa's level, but I don't think they'll be regularly blowing through the cap. The caveat, as always, is that they haven't spoken to me about this guesswork!
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 30, 2021 11:34:29 GMT -5
It's clear that for whatver reason they didn't want to go over to start the season. We know that because they DIDN'T go over and signed some low-cost pieces to fill out the bottom of the roster.
The main problem with the OF, as I see it, is the lack of a LH platoon guy to take ABs away from Renfroe. He's mashing away at .340/.392/.533/.945 against LHP. but he's .208/.234/.376/.610 vs. RHP. In other words, he's doing what we would have expected.
When you have him and Dalbec (.469 OPS vs. RHP), in the lineup vs. a righty, it's an issue.
If Santana works out, he could help. But you're still stuck with either Dalbec or Renfore in the lineup vs. a RHP.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 30, 2021 11:49:54 GMT -5
I would just like to point out that the future is very much up in the air as far as caps go. Why adhere to a cap this year to stay under when all the rules could change based on the new CBA, which we all know is going to be drastically different. MLB has some really tough months coming forward and who knows what the landscape is going to look like over the next few years.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 30, 2021 11:59:44 GMT -5
With the arrival of yet another 2B / OF, this really is becoming an OF / 2B thing. And Santana also provides another option at 1B against RHP that project to be tough on Dalbec.
So, vs. RHP you're going to see Verdugo, Cordero, and Santana except when banged up or needing a rest, plus a choice of Kiké, Arroyo, Renfoe, or Gonzalez, and sometimes two of those four with Dalbec sitting.
This is of course the spot that you hope Duran seizes around mid-year. That will require moving either Gonzalez or Arroyo. Marwin will be a FA but is a great clubhouse guy and is more versatile; Arroyo might be their best defensive 2B, is under team control through 2024, and looks like a nice guy to have on the bench as the backup skill infielder for at least some of those years; there's no guarantee Arauz will be better. You almost hope that one or the other needs a few weeks on the IL at the point where Duran looks ready. If there's a contender that's weak at 2B (or 3B) both in MLB and the high minors, they might be interested in Arroyo and give you someone of value. That seems like a longshot, though, and there may be better guys on the market even if a team like that exists.
Vs. LHP, it's Verdugo, Renfoe, Kiké, Santana on most days.
Looking at performance vs. RHP, according to xwOBA (mostly):
Kiké the previous 3 years was .301 xwOBA. This year he's .318 and I believe that may well be for real, in part because it seemed to be the team's belief that he could be better. Interestingly, he's .340 on the road but with a .298 wOBA, while at Fenway he's .299 but with a .376 wOBA. He has looked like a legit Fenway hitter, and his overall wOBA, .339 may have a real component as well. He definitely looks like the best option of the four, but the overall difference isn't big enough to make him a default; they'll look at the matchups ever day..
Renfroe is both tantalizing and discouraging.
.327, 2018
.295, 2019 .267, 2020 .188 (16 PA) through April 14 .263 (28 PA) from then to end of April .350 (30 PA) May 1 to 10
OMG, they fixed him!
.181 (26 PA) since. So now he's .256 for the season, and .269 since that equally brutal start. He's .169 at Fenway, with a .210 wOBA, and .361 on the road, with a .272 wOBA. That split wasn't supposed to happen.
I would declare with confidence that they haven't fixed him at all if it weren't for the fact that they are treating him as if they did. Whether he continues to muddle around .265 - .270 or has another great stretch will be telling.
I'll do Marwin (who surprises me by being right in this mix) and Arroyo next.
Reverse whammy accomplished!
Last 4 G, 7 PA vs. RHP for Renfroe, .484 xwOBA, .585 wOBA.
But he's still only .295 / .317 in May, so he has to keep this up.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on May 30, 2021 13:12:36 GMT -5
It's clear that for whatver reason they didn't want to go over to start the season. We know that because they DIDN'T go over and signed some low-cost pieces to fill out the bottom of the roster. The main problem with the OF, as I see it, is the lack of a LH platoon guy to take ABs away from Renfroe. He's mashing away at .340/.392/.533/.945 against LHP. but he's .208/.234/.376/.610 vs. RHP. In other words, he's doing what we would have expected. When you have him and Dalbec (.469 OPS vs. RHP), in the lineup vs. a righty, it's an issue. If Santana works out, he could help. But you're still stuck with either Dalbec or Renfore in the lineup vs. a RHP. I'm fine with Renfroe being in the lineup in these cases because he provides surplus value defensively in the field. I think the next 10-15 games is going to determine Dalbec's permanence in the lineup, but lets not pretend that Santana has been a barn burner so far either. By late June - Early July I would expect Duran to make his way to the big club, and he will take AB's away from Renfroe, and if Dalbec doesn't turn it around I'd expect 1B would be a platoon between Marwin and Santana depending on who is hot. What I'm more concerned with long term, than the lineup, is pitching. Erod has looked shaky the last few times out, we've got a lot of heart attack relievers who walk way too many guys (Otto, Darwin), Whitlock has returned to earth a bit. Will each of these guys right the ship in time for the cavalry (Sale) to return? I guess for now, they are still finding ways to win, and that makes them really fun to watch. Going into this series a lot of folks were concerned with how good the Marlin's staff was, and yet the team handled them pretty well. I still think there is something to be said about how this team performs against better than average starters vs. unknowns. Going into ST, I did not expect this configuration of a team to be this fun to watch, or this successful. I wanted them to be better than last year, but I didn't think they'd compete for the pennant at all. I think for now until proven otherwise I'm just not going to look a gift horse in the mouth.
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Post by kevfc89 on May 30, 2021 15:52:07 GMT -5
I knew Betts was scuffling but he's now down to.240 after an 0-6. I never understood why the Dodgers prioritized him. Even at his best he wasn't really an area of need as the Dodgers already had a lot of weapons and Verdugo was clearly pretty good. It almost seemed like a reactionary move to hurt the Sox rather than something the Dodgers needed. I mentioned that there are some downward trends in Mookie's stats myself in the other thread, but I think we ought to hold our horses on implying that he isn't a phenomenal player. He's battled a couple of injuries this season (which usually turns out to be the explanation when a young player with a great track record unaccountably slumps), and yet he's still close to a 5 WAR/150 pace.
I think the reason the Dodgers traded for Betts is that he made them a better team, and in fact he already helped them win a World Series in his first season there. You could make the argument that they'd set themselves up better for the long term if they hadn't made the trade, but it's not like their motivations were mysterious.
Yea, Mookie's the type to shortly prove any doubters wrong, but thought that these trends posted by redsoxstats were at least interesting.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 30, 2021 17:55:02 GMT -5
I knew Betts was scuffling but he's now down to.240 after an 0-6. I never understood why the Dodgers prioritized him. Even at his best he wasn't really an area of need as the Dodgers already had a lot of weapons and Verdugo was clearly pretty good. It almost seemed like a reactionary move to hurt the Sox rather than something the Dodgers needed. I mentioned that there are some downward trends in Mookie's stats myself in the other thread, but I think we ought to hold our horses on implying that he isn't a phenomenal player. He's battled a couple of injuries this season (which usually turns out to be the explanation when a young player with a great track record unaccountably slumps), and yet he's still close to a 5 WAR/150 pace.
I think the reason the Dodgers traded for Betts is that he made them a better team, and in fact he already helped them win a World Series in his first season there. You could make the argument that they'd set themselves up better for the long term if they hadn't made the trade, but it's not like their motivations were mysterious.
When you look deeply, at actual value, Alex is killing Mookie this year.
Alex is 1.20 Win Probability Added and Mookie is -0.87. Alex is 28th in MLB in WPA (JDM is second and Devers is 19th). In FG's imperfect "Clutch" metric, of 271 guys with 100+ PA, Alex is 15th and Mookie is ... 270th.
Using FG's Batting Runs, I get Alex as +0.7 Wins of clutch, and Mookie as -1.4. "Clutch" has the difference as 2.0 wins. Either way, it dwarfs Mookei's 0.3 fWAR edge from the situational - neutral metrics (using fWAR because it seems to be better in this case).
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Mookie has a 141 wRC+ with the base empty and an 82 with runners on. Alex is 131 and 103. Mookie is -1.48 wins in Inning / Score Clutch, and Alex is +0.39. So that's almost the entire clutch difference.
With Leverage Index > 2.3, Mookie is 0/18, BB, HBP. Alex is 5/8, 2B, 2 BB (+ 1 IBB), HBP.
In terms of big hits between them, Alex has the top 4 and 8 of the top 10. Mookie's big clutch moment of the year was walking in the tying run with 1 out in the bottom of the 6th against the Padres. His big clutch hit was doubling with Kershaw on 1B and 0 outs in the top of the 6th to put the tying runs in scoring position. And that was opening day! Since then, his big hit was a leadoff homer in the bottom of the first.
Alex? You might recall a 2-out, bases clearing 2B off of entering Twins LHR Tyler Rogers that tied the score in the 8th. (That was the game that Ottavino coughed up the next inning). Or hearing about the c. midnight, tie-breaking, 2 out bases loaded single in the 5th inning of the second game of the double-header, the day before (the game they beat Berrios).
And it goes on. The 3-run HR off of Poteet Friday was more game-changing than anything Mookie has done all year.
So all you folks missing Mookie madly ... he is having a nightmare season with the game on the line. It may not be predictive in the long run, but it's happening. And that itself would start to get into your head, but imagine the extra pressure of the $$$$$.
[BTW, Mookie is 0 Runs prevented in the OF, but loses 1 or 2 on stuff that doesn't measure. Alex is -3].
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Post by incandenza on May 30, 2021 19:07:24 GMT -5
That's pretty wild, about Mookie - especially the 0-18. I don't think it's predictive, like you say, but I also don't see the pressure getting to him in a way that would affect his performance.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 31, 2021 10:42:39 GMT -5
If they compete this year they are likely going to add and, therefore, go over. If that happens, who cares from where they started? Teams can make additions and changes to their roster without increasing salary. It's far more difficult but low budget teams deal with salary constraints while competing all the time. I expect that any serious reinforcements the Red Sox receive this year will come from within. Sale to bolster the pitching staff, Duran for the OF and possibly even Downs (helping OF by taking 2b from Kiké) and Casas (1b). As it sits right now, that would fill all of the holes. Depending on prospects for the stretch run isn't ideal, but teams do it all the time. I'm sure we will see a deal or two for minimum level vets as well. In terms of your question of why the Red Sox wouldn't have just gone over before the season - it seems ownership made that decision and I doubt they're changing their minds. Otherwise, the answer is that Bloom made that decision and based on the results of his other decisions so far I have faith that he made the right one.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 3, 2021 9:03:50 GMT -5
How about a shout out to Hunter Renfroe for posting 319 333 604 938 with 6hr 15rbi along with plus D for the month of May.
When you throw a bunch of guys out there on the cheap with the hopes that someone will step up and seize the opportunity isn't this what you are hoping for?
With all the talk about the Benny trade isn't Renfro part of that equation?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2021 20:09:32 GMT -5
Thought I'd post here rather than continue the last 47 posts in the game thread.
Franchy for Santana (DFA) has to be just a matter of time. At that point, Franchy, Verdugo, Renfroe versus RHP (with Arroyo and Kiké sharing 2B) and Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe vs. LHP.
When Durran arrives is unknown, and they have several options for what they do with the roster at that point. Counting Arroyo as the regular 2B, the bench beyond Plawecki and whoever among the 4 outfielders is not starting might be just Kiké, or him plus a Moreland-like 1B, or plus Marwin. More on that in another thread at some point.
In terms of accommodating all 4 guys, vs. RHP you might start Verdugo 90% of the time, Durran and Franchy 75%, and Renfroe 60%. Against LHP, you might start Verdugo and Renfroe all the time, Kiké 90% and Durran 10%. Total guesses here.
If you did that starting August 1, the exact last third of the season (54 G), you'd get:
50 Verdugo 40 Renfroe
29 Durran 27 Franchy
16 Kiké
The likelest alteration of this would be more starts for Franchy and/or Durran and fewer for Renfroe vs. RHP.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 27, 2021 21:16:28 GMT -5
Thought I'd post here rather than continue the last 47 posts in the game thread.
Franchy for Santana (DFA) has to be just a matter of time. At that point, Franchy, Verdugo, Renfroe versus RHP (with Arroyo and Kiké sharing 2B) and Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe vs. LHP.
When Durran arrives is unknown, and they have several options for what they do with the roster at that point. Counting Arroyo as the regular 2B, the bench beyond Plawecki and whoever among the 4 outfielders is not starting might be just Kiké, or him plus a Moreland-like 1B, or plus Marwin. More on that in another thread at some point.
In terms of accommodating all 4 guys, vs. RHP you might start Verdugo 90% of the time, Durran and Franchy 75%, and Renfroe 60%. Against LHP, you might start Verdugo and Renfroe all the time, Kiké 90% and Durran 10%. Total guesses here.
If you did that starting August 1, the exact last third of the season (54 G), you'd get:
50 Verdugo 40 Renfroe
29 Durran 27 Franchy
16 Kiké
The likelest alteration of this would be more starts for Franchy and/or Durran and fewer for Renfroe vs. RHP.
I'd also like to see some roster machinations that would mean fewer Verdugo ABs against LHP. He's at .204/.245/.258 vs. them. I was wondering whether Marcus Wilson could be an option. He's at .279/.399./506. But his k% is 30.9 and his BABIP is .386. Verdugo has looked like a guy who could use some time off recently and taking a seat against lefties is the way to do it. Maybe it would make sense to call up Marcus Wilson for just a few days when the RS have some games against LH starters. He could be the bridge to Franchy/Durran. That would at least give Verdugo some time off.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 27, 2021 21:26:49 GMT -5
Can any of these guys play 1b part-time?
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 27, 2021 23:53:10 GMT -5
If they compete this year they are likely going to add and, therefore, go over. If that happens, who cares from where they started? If they do add I think Richards is an interesting lever they can pull to stay under the luxury tax. Especially if he keeps pitching poorly, he’s a movable piece with Sale and Houck coming back. I get you can never have enough pitching depth but if the sticky stuff situation is impacting him and this is the Richards we’re getting going forward, it’s not worth keeping him on the major league roster just for the SP depth. At $10M AAV he’s a perfect salary match, and with the team option it’s a decent upside play for the acquiring team. Obviously out of contention if they’re selling off, they can afford to give him some run. In addition to the prospects they’ll get, they can hope Richards turns it around to the point where picking up the option is a value add. Then they have a guy on an expiring contract they could potentially flip at next trade deadline. Would cost acquiring team $5M cash, assuming that the Red Sox can’t pay this without it counting towards luxury tax?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 2, 2021 17:05:20 GMT -5
This isn't the NBA where you need to match salaries though.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 23, 2021 8:58:49 GMT -5
Thought I would bump this thread back into revelance considering the changes recently.
Would also like to give props to Kiké and Cora since I was one of many who bashed his performance leading off. He has basically had a JBJ type of great hitting for a month and it is ongoing so it is great to see.
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