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A Team of Pedroias or a Team of Adam Dunns?
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 10:18:57 GMT -5
In the world of three true outcomes, could the team that leverages the "inefficiency of high OBP" right now be, king?
Or, put another way, in a league now predicated on the "Three Trues," would it be advantageous to assemble a team of Pedroias at his peak or a team of the Three True Outcomes King (or one of them) or a team of Adam Dunns at his peak? This is an offense-only consideration. Obviously, Pedroia was worth much more on defense than Dunn.
Peak Pedroia: Age 24 157 games 726 PAs .326AVE/.376OBP/.493SLG wOBAf .377 17HRs 50BB 52K
Peak Dunn: Age 24 161 games 681 PAs .266AVE/.388OBP/.569SLG wOBAf .402 46HRs 108BB 195K
Personally I would prefer Pedroia only because he puts the ball in play more often, but I understand the case for Dunn, and would enthusiastically support it if I was working for a team that decided to go this route.
Of course, these are extremes and any team would be lucky to have nine of either (or 4 and 5 of either, etc.) Just curious what all y'all think?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 10, 2021 10:25:08 GMT -5
What about a single Dunn-sized Pedroia or a hundred Pedroia-sized Dunns?
(And for me it's 9 Dunns - you score more runs getting on base and slugging them in).
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2021 10:29:57 GMT -5
I think it's clearly Dunn - the higher OBP means he's turning the lineup over more often, and the much higher slugging means that there are more mass run-scoring events, more than enough to make up for potential RBI outs and the advantage of a single vs. a walk.
I'll raise you:
2000 Nomar Garciaparra .372/.434/.599 61 BB, 40 K
vs.
2017 Aaron Judge .284/.422/.627 127 BB, 208 K
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Post by jmei on May 10, 2021 10:33:58 GMT -5
Even if you’re looking at offense only, need to consider baserunning. That evens it up a lot (though I’ve lost my fastball and will let someone else figure out the exact math).
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,223
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Post by radiohix on May 10, 2021 10:38:59 GMT -5
Even if you’re looking at offense only, need to consider baserunning. That evens it up a lot (though I’ve lost my fastball and will let someone else figure out the exact math). Yooooo! Good to see you back my man. |
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Post by manfred on May 10, 2021 10:42:16 GMT -5
I get this comp, but I wonder if “peak” Adam Dunn is a fair example.... he never matched that season. So the bigger question to me is do you take Dunn or Pedroia at age 26, not knowing what the future holds? Because obviously in this specific instance, if you *chose* peak Dunn, you’d lose badly going forward.
This is still my issue with the Dunn-type (and why I hate Renfroe and Franchy, for example): when they work, in retrospect they look great. But the high-K, high power guy who doesn’t work is... well, Franchy. I view Verdugo as closer to Pedey... bat control, smarter, maybe a bit under-powered. But I’d a million times rather have him up in a key situation than a Dunn-type.
I keep thinking of Renfroe’s 13 LOBs in 2 games this week. Pedey/Verdugo is far less likely to do that.
Add: put differently, there is a fine line between Dunn 2004 (.266/.388/.569) and Dunn 2006 (.234/.365./.490). The power difference there is just 10 doubles, 6 HRs. 20 overall hits. The latter is less than half the former’s oWAR.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 10, 2021 11:58:51 GMT -5
I get this comp, but I wonder if “peak” Adam Dunn is a fair example.... he never matched that season. How do you figure? From 2004 to 2010 he dropped below 130 wRC+ just once. That said, I don't disagree that a more robust way to do it may be to compare a five-year peak or something. |
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,486
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Post by shagworthy on May 10, 2021 12:09:52 GMT -5
I get this comp, but I wonder if “peak” Adam Dunn is a fair example.... he never matched that season. How do you figure? From 2004 to 2010 he dropped below 130 wRC+ just once. That said, I don't disagree that a more robust way to do it may be to compare a five-year peak or something. It's an imperfect comparison because of how many runs Pedey saved defensively. If I remember correctly, Dunn was ham-fisted when he did play in the field, so any additional runs he scored gets offset by that. I'm not a huge fan of the 3 true outcomes philosophy in baseball, I think it makes the game too boring and really takes away any of the traditional strategies we used to see. If I had my druthers, I'd rather watch 9 Pedey's, although I imagine that dugout/clubhouse would be a nightmare with all of that frenetic energy. |
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Post by manfred on May 10, 2021 12:21:49 GMT -5
I get this comp, but I wonder if “peak” Adam Dunn is a fair example.... he never matched that season. How do you figure? From 2004 to 2010 he dropped below 130 wRC+ just once. That said, I don't disagree that a more robust way to do it may be to compare a five-year peak or something. His oWAR was higher that one year than it would be again... so, even in a strict hitting comp, he was 5.1 that year but 3.8 average in your range. So, take again that peak year against 2008. The latter year, he had an OPS+ of 131 (against peak 147). But his oWAR dipped from 5.1 to 3.3, even with an OBP of .386 and slugging of .513. My point was merely that this *type* player... low contact, high power... is a fine line. You drop his power numbers slightly from that peak (as I wrote last post, and turn 46 HRs to 40) and you see pretty stark value drops. I think of Dalbec. We keep saying the HRs will come. But if they don’t come at a significant number, at some point he can’t make up for the oh-fers. I’d love to know what the exact ratio of HR:0-4 games results in a net positive. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 10, 2021 12:29:37 GMT -5
I guess, but it's always going to come down to the better player, regardless of "type," though.
You could argue a TTO-type needs to hit for enough power to offset the strikeouts, but you could also argue that a high-average, low-power player needs to get on-base enough to offset the lack of power. Maybe not the best example because he was able to also make up for it with speed, but Jacoby Ellsbury hit .301 in 2009 and had a 98 wRC+ (although he was a positive offensive contributor b/c of the 70 SB). Even accounting for his speed, it's kind of crazy to think about a guy hitting .301 and stealing 70 bases and being just a 2.1 fWAR player.
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Post by manfred on May 10, 2021 12:35:55 GMT -5
I guess, but it's always going to come down to the better player, regardless of "type," though. You could argue a TTO-type needs to hit for enough power to offset the strikeouts, but you could also argue that a high-average, low-power player needs to get on-base enough to offset the lack of power. Maybe not the best example because he was able to also make up for it with speed, but Jacoby Ellsbury hit .301 in 2009 and had a 98 wRC+ (although he was a positive offensive contributor b/c of the 70 SB). Even accounting for his speed, it's kind of crazy to think about a guy hitting .301 and stealing 70 bases and being just a 2.1 fWAR player. Of course... this really always making this apples and oranges (would you rather have the high power guy who doesn’t connect enough? Errrr no? The low power guy who slumps? Pass.). But the difference to me is that a K is always an unproductive out. A contact guy with a man on third and one out has not only the chance to drive him in with a hit, but with an out. If you have a *team* of these guys (which I think was the hypothetical), Dunn1 and Dunn2 could walk, but you’d still often need the next Dunns to either a) keep walking or b) hit a home run. With the Pedroia team, you could potentially single, steal, ground out, fly out. 1 run in. Which likely returns us to the real world of: best to have a mix. |
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Post by Don Caballero on May 10, 2021 12:42:44 GMT -5
I'm gonna go with a team of Wily Mo Penas.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2021 13:31:41 GMT -5
I'm gonna go with a team of Wily Mo Penas. My one endearing memory of Wily Mo is the time he hit a line drive so hard into the monster seats that it didn't hit a seat just that wall backing the front row and the ball bounced back and hit the ground about half way back to the infield. So it maybe bounced back 80, 90 maybe 100 ft or so before landing. Made it out of Fenway in less than 2 seconds or so it seemed. Should have been more moments like that. I wonder what the exit velocity on that one was. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 10, 2021 14:21:38 GMT -5
I'm gonna go with a team of Wily Mo Penas. My one endearing memory of Wily Mo is the time he hit a line drive so hard into the monster seats that it didn't hit a seat just that wall backing the front row and the ball bounced back and hit the ground about half way back to the infield. So it maybe bounced back 80, 90 maybe 100 ft or so before landing. Made it out of Fenway in less than 2 seconds or so it seemed. Should have been more moments like that. I wonder what the exit velocity on that one was. It was crazy, but I bet people forget. Coco Crisp had some injury issues in 2006 and Wily Mo Pena got to play every day for awhile and while his defense was DH-worthy, he actually batted .301 for the season I believe. With consistent playing time he was hitting well. But in 2007 Crisp was healthy and the Sox signed Drew, which of course was a huge upgrade defensively for what Pena would have given them, but Pena hit the bench and was never the same. With Ortiz around he wasn't going to be able to DH so I think he wound up stuck on the bench and his timing was probably off and I don't think he lasted long with the team that year and by the time playing time opened up, Jacoby Ellsbury was ready. I thnk Pena is one of those guys who just needed to play every day as a DH and see what could happen. Certainly wasn't worth Bronson Arroyo but I understood the thinking behind the deal. I think Epstein was hoping to find David Ortiz version 2.0. |
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Post by slam761 on May 10, 2021 14:44:58 GMT -5
I'm gonna go with a team of Wily Mo Penas. My one endearing memory of Wily Mo is the time he hit a line drive so hard into the monster seats that it didn't hit a seat just that wall backing the front row and the ball bounced back and hit the ground about half way back to the infield. So it maybe bounced back 80, 90 maybe 100 ft or so before landing. Made it out of Fenway in less than 2 seconds or so it seemed. Should have been more moments like that. I wonder what the exit velocity on that one was. He said in an interview after the game that he was afraid he'd killed someone with it and he didn't want to go to jail, lol. I miss that guy. |
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2021 15:53:33 GMT -5
My one endearing memory of Wily Mo is the time he hit a line drive so hard into the monster seats that it didn't hit a seat just that wall backing the front row and the ball bounced back and hit the ground about half way back to the infield. So it maybe bounced back 80, 90 maybe 100 ft or so before landing. Made it out of Fenway in less than 2 seconds or so it seemed. Should have been more moments like that. I wonder what the exit velocity on that one was. He said in an interview after the game that he was afraid he'd killed someone with it and he didn't want to go to jail, lol. I miss that guy. I did LOL on that one. Not so funny actually as I stopped paying attention for a second at a Seadog game a few years ago. Was sitting down the third base line and a line shot missed me by inches, a shot to the side of my head could have killed me. If you're going to sit in those seats you can't get lax. |
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Post by patford on May 10, 2021 15:53:52 GMT -5
A better way to look at this would to be leave the names off and just compare the batting numbers. At least that is what I think the post is asking a person to do. And if you do it that way then:
681 PAs .266AVE/.388OBP/.569SLG wOBAf .402 46HRs 108BB 195K
Clearly is much better than:
726 PAs .326AVE/.376OBP/.493SLG wOBAf .377 17HRs 50BB 52K
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,486
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Post by shagworthy on May 10, 2021 15:56:55 GMT -5
He said in an interview after the game that he was afraid he'd killed someone with it and he didn't want to go to jail, lol. I miss that guy. I did LOL on that one. Not so funny actually as I stopped paying attention for a second at a Seadog game a few years ago. Was sitting down the third base line and a line shot missed me by inches, a shot to the side of my head could have killed me. If you're going to sit in those seats you can't get lax. I actually mentioned this home run in a different thread because it stuck with me all these years. I've never seen a ball hit harder or leave Fenway faster in my 43 years on this earth. If that back wall wasn't there, I can't even fathom where that ball might have finally landed, it seemed like it was still rising when it hit. |
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Post by manfred on May 10, 2021 16:09:48 GMT -5
A better way to look at this would to be leave the names off and just compare the batting numbers. At least that is what I think the post is asking a person to do. And if you do it that way then: 681 PAs .266AVE/.388OBP/.569SLG wOBAf .402 46HRs 108BB 195K Clearly is much better than: 726 PAs .326AVE/.376OBP/.493SLG wOBAf .377 17HRs 50BB 52K But how does that mean anything beyond this one season is better than that? I mean, it doesn’t mean much beyond a guy who hits *well* but Ks a lot is better than a guy with less power who doesn’t K as much. But the bigger question is if you look at the peaks *and valleys* of the career, who would you gamble on for the next year? This is what I meant about retrospect... the TTO guys who have good years look good after the fact. How about this line: 70 games, 297 PA: .253/.389/.598 22 HRs. 52 BBs 112 Ks 3.1 bWAR in those 70 games. But Gallo — who did that at age 25 — didn’t do it before and hasn’t since. If you say “would you want that year,” I say yes. If you say “would you want Gallo,” I say no. And if you showed me 2018 AND that 2019, I’d say wooooah... maybe 2019 is atypical. Add: anyway, ultimately the answer is “I want the better one” — whatever numbers are thrown out. But the question here was a *team* of these guys. I think the issue is about how a string of Dunns would function vs. a string of Pedroias. |
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2021 17:55:22 GMT -5
I did LOL on that one. Not so funny actually as I stopped paying attention for a second at a Seadog game a few years ago. Was sitting down the third base line and a line shot missed me by inches, a shot to the side of my head could have killed me. If you're going to sit in those seats you can't get lax. I actually mentioned this home run in a different thread because it stuck with me all these years. I've never seen a ball hit harder or leave Fenway faster in my 43 years on this earth. If that back wall wasn't there, I can't even fathom where that ball might have finally landed, it seemed like it was still rising when it hit. Now that you mention it I remember the same thing, it looked like it was still rising, amazingly. And yeah it left the park faster than anything I have ever seen, then bounced halfway back. Also amazing to think he hit 301 for a season and with that power didn't have a better career. Upon trying to find it on the internet I read a story from someone else talking about him doing the same thing at I think it was Minute Made Park, hr that hit a concrete wall and bounced half way back to the infield. The manager also said it was the hardest hit ball he had ever seen. |
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Post by patford on May 10, 2021 18:00:53 GMT -5
A better way to look at this would to be leave the names off and just compare the batting numbers. At least that is what I think the post is asking a person to do. And if you do it that way then: 681 PAs .266AVE/.388OBP/.569SLG wOBAf .402 46HRs 108BB 195K Clearly is much better than: 726 PAs .326AVE/.376OBP/.493SLG wOBAf .377 17HRs 50BB 52K But how does that mean anything beyond this one season is better than that? I mean, it doesn’t mean much beyond a guy who hits *well* but Ks a lot is better than a guy with less power who doesn’t K as much. But the bigger question is if you look at the peaks *and valleys* of the career, who would you gamble on for the next year? This is what I meant about retrospect... the TTO guys who have good years look good after the fact. How about this line: 70 games, 297 PA: .253/.389/.598 22 HRs. 52 BBs 112 Ks 3.1 bWAR in those 70 games. But Gallo — who did that at age 25 — didn’t do it before and hasn’t since. If you say “would you want that year,” I say yes. If you say “would you want Gallo,” I say no. And if you showed me 2018 AND that 2019, I’d say wooooah... maybe 2019 is atypical. Add: anyway, ultimately the answer is “I want the better one” — whatever numbers are thrown out. But the question here was a *team* of these guys. I think the issue is about how a string of Dunns would function vs. a string of Pedroias. The way I understood it the post was suggesting that a high OBP and high SLG and lots of HR are better than a higher BA and fewer K. |
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Post by manfred on May 10, 2021 18:07:41 GMT -5
But how does that mean anything beyond this one season is better than that? I mean, it doesn’t mean much beyond a guy who hits *well* but Ks a lot is better than a guy with less power who doesn’t K as much. But the bigger question is if you look at the peaks *and valleys* of the career, who would you gamble on for the next year? This is what I meant about retrospect... the TTO guys who have good years look good after the fact. How about this line: 70 games, 297 PA: .253/.389/.598 22 HRs. 52 BBs 112 Ks 3.1 bWAR in those 70 games. But Gallo — who did that at age 25 — didn’t do it before and hasn’t since. If you say “would you want that year,” I say yes. If you say “would you want Gallo,” I say no. And if you showed me 2018 AND that 2019, I’d say wooooah... maybe 2019 is atypical. Add: anyway, ultimately the answer is “I want the better one” — whatever numbers are thrown out. But the question here was a *team* of these guys. I think the issue is about how a string of Dunns would function vs. a string of Pedroias. The way I understood it the post was suggesting that a high OBP and high SLG and lots of HR are better than a higher BA and fewer K. I guess that seems QED, but it still means a guy with a better year is better — because “a lot” is really relative, as even Dunn’s stats show... when he hit 46 homers, good. But he hit 40, and he was only ok. But my point is if you are thinking about this retrospectively, you can simply say this season was better than that. If the question is would you rather... then two key factors become a) which would make a better 1-9 in terms of chemistry, and b) which would you *gamble* on. So the Sox are going to sign a 28-year old FA and the two options have Dunn’s record to 28 and Pedroia’s. Which do you feel more confident in (health and defense not being issues). |
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Post by kjkramer on May 10, 2021 18:18:28 GMT -5
Lol. Not even close. Pedey
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2021 18:56:12 GMT -5
Honestly I think even if it were a complete game proposition as opposed to offense-only there's a real argument for Dunn. Pedrioa would obviously be a much superior fielder, but Dunn would probably be a wayyy better pitcher and I think that matters a lot.
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