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Post by Jimmy on May 16, 2021 1:18:01 GMT -5
Here are my 1/4 season awards. Feel free to comment your own. I don’t care about NL baseball until the Sox play their best in the World Series so I’ll be doing AL only.
MVP: Shohei Ohtani
CY Young: John Means
Reliever of the Year: Aroldis Chapman
ROY: Yermin Mercedes
CPOY: Trey Mancini
Manager of the Year: Alex Cora
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2021 2:55:17 GMT -5
Between Barnes and Chapman ... which guy has the three most valuable outings by Win Probability Added, and ten of the top 11?
That would be Matt Barnes. It's enough of an edge that even with his one bad outing, Barnes clobbers Chapman in WPA. Barnes leads all of MLB and Chapman is 11th, 6th in the AL.
At the other extreme ... Chapman edges Barnes in xwOBA, .161 to .170. But Barnes ranks 3rd among closers with 19 IP and Chapman is in a 4-way tie for 19th with 15 IP.
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Post by Jimmy on May 16, 2021 22:00:01 GMT -5
Did me listing Ohtani as MVP and excluding Barnes from Relief Pitcher of the Year jinx the 9th inning for us today?
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 17, 2021 5:21:47 GMT -5
MVP Xander Bogaerts
CY Young: Nick Pivetta
ReOY: Matt Barnes
ROY: Garrett Whitlock
CPOY: Garrett Richards.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2021 12:39:33 GMT -5
MVP Xander Bogaerts CY Young: Nick Pivetta ReOY: Matt Barnes ROY: Garrett Whitlock CPOY: Garrett Richards. Checks out. Would also allow JD Martinez as MVP. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 17, 2021 13:04:41 GMT -5
MVP Xander Bogaerts CY Young: Nick Pivetta ReOY: Matt Barnes ROY: Garrett Whitlock CPOY: Garrett Richards. Checks out. Would also allow JD Martinez as MVP. CO MVP's! great point. I agree. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 17, 2021 13:26:11 GMT -5
So here's a question: at what point does Ohtani have to be the MVP? Is it as simple as adding his aggregate hitting and pitching WAR?
Like say he's a 3-win player on both sides of the ball. 6.0 WAR isn't an MVP total... but the fact that he's giving you two players in one roster spot, isn't that IMMENSELY valuable?
FWIW, so far this year he's been on pace to be a roughly 4.8-WAR hitter and 2.0-WAR pitcher, per FG, whereas BRef has him at 4.8 and 4.4 WAR.
I guess the question is how valuable it is for the team to get those two players out of one roster spot.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2021 13:43:41 GMT -5
So here's a question: at what point does Ohtani have to be the MVP? Is it as simple as adding his aggregate hitting and pitching WAR? Like say he's a 3-win player on both sides of the ball. 6.0 WAR isn't an MVP total... but the fact that he's giving you two players in one roster spot, isn't that IMMENSELY valuable? FWIW, so far this year he's been on pace to be a roughly 4.8-WAR hitter and 2.0-WAR pitcher, per FG, whereas BRef has him at 4.8 and 4.4 WAR. I guess the question is how valuable it is for the team to get those two players out of one roster spot. I really like that question. I guess if Mike Trout or Vlad Jr. or someone gets something around 10-WAR, you still take that over a player who splits 6-WAR between being a two-way player. I don't think simply being a 3.0 WAR pitcher makes up for the 7.0 WAR difference in their production as a position player. Breaking it down, if you consider an average player to be worth about 2.0 WAR, maybe that's a good basis for the value of the roster spot itself. And in my head I think that works, I probably take a 6.0 two-way player over a 7.5 WAR one-way. |
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Post by julyanmorley on May 17, 2021 14:46:14 GMT -5
An average regular is worth 2 WAR. That does not mean that the average marginal roster player (the last guy on the roster, or the last guy cut from the roster) adds 2 WAR to a team. Marginal roster players mostly sit on the bench where they don't accrue value, and are worse than average almost by definition.
Imagine MLB got mad at Alex Cora for an offensive smirk and punished the Red Sox by cutting their roster down to 25. Austin Brice gets designed for assignment, his right-around replacement level innings get distributed to better pitchers who now have a tougher workload. The Red Sox would be okay.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2021 14:54:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox are using their last roster spot incorrectly, that doesn't mean the roster spot itself is not worth something more than replacement value.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 17, 2021 16:19:03 GMT -5
But the thing is, Ohtani basically gives the Angels a 27-man roster in a way that's not gimmicky - it's not Michael Lorenzen pinch hitting or Tucker Tubbs being an absolute weapon in extra innings.
Do you assume the roster spot gets used on a replacement-level player though? An average regular? Is there another way to quantify it? I'm genuinely curious.
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Post by natesp4 on May 17, 2021 17:05:55 GMT -5
I think I just split the difference between replacement and average player and add 1.0 WAR to his total in my head. Which passes my gut check where if Trout comes in at 9 WAR and Ohtani comes in at a cumulative 8 WAR, I view those as roughly equal seasons.
I'll also say that if a Red Sox player can't win MVP, I want Ohtani to win. It'd be great for baseball for "the next Babe Ruth" to come full circle on living up to the hype by winning MVP as an all-star quality pitcher and hitter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 17, 2021 17:22:48 GMT -5
To be clear, actually, that'd be outplaying the hype - it wasn't consensus that he was an MLB-quality hitter, and certainly not that he'd be THIS good at the plate.
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Post by foreverred9 on May 17, 2021 17:31:14 GMT -5
I've been thinking the same thing about Ohtoni, and wondering how teams will price him when he hits free agency. I do think there's a hidden value in him, tied to what you're saying Chris.
On the flip side you run the risk that an injury will cause you to lose 2 players instead of 1.
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Post by manfred on May 17, 2021 17:34:58 GMT -5
That’s my feeling on talks about where Ohtani’s WAR is at the season’s end. I love the idea of a guy starting, then ending in RF as a slugger... but in practice I just think of all the bad things that can happen. I can’t help feeling like he’s one of those enjoy-him-while-you-can guys, like Bo Jackson.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 17, 2021 17:51:31 GMT -5
But the thing is, Ohtani basically gives the Angels a 27-man roster in a way that's not gimmicky - it's not Michael Lorenzen pinch hitting or Tucker Tubbs being an absolute weapon in extra innings. Do you assume the roster spot gets used on a replacement-level player though? An average regular? Is there another way to quantify it? I'm genuinely curious. The 27th men across the league are not going to be very good. If they were any good, they'd be the 12th man on a roster. Right now the Angels appear to be using their bonus roster spot on Juan Lagares.
It's not just a matter of how good they are, though. It's how much value is there in them playing instead of one of the first 26 guys. I think the Red Sox have shown that adding a 9th man to your bullpen doesn't help much except in keeping your more valuable pitchers from having to mop up the 9th inning of a 7 run game.
Most teams could reliably find value in adding a pinch runner that doubles as a defensive replacement. That's probably not worth too much. There might be a team or two that would love to add a right handed bat to platoon with their mediocre left handed starter, but can't find the spot for them. There you would see some real potential for more-than-a-rounding-error amounts of value. Adding a redundant piece that is just worse than the guys ahead of him isn't really worth anything, though.
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