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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 5, 2022 15:45:21 GMT -5
If he looks good, once everyone gets healthy Sale/Bello Eovaldi Pivetta Wacha Wink or Hill or Paxton Chris Nate Nick Mike Brayan with Rich and Josh in the pen is 🔥 I think we're going to see Hill as a piggyback, rather than a straight reliever. Maybe Sale/Hill.
When everyone is healthy, I think Bello is back in Worcester, unless he kicks the door down tomorrow and disposes of the pieces in the wood stove in his next start...
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 5, 2022 16:23:21 GMT -5
Bello's also a good option for bullpen help given how many innings he's thrown.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 5, 2022 17:20:49 GMT -5
Chris Nate Nick Mike Brayan with Rich and Josh in the pen is 🔥 I think we're going to see Hill as a piggyback, rather than a straight reliever. Maybe Sale/Hill.
When everyone is healthy, I think Bello is back in Worcester, unless he kicks the door down tomorrow and disposes of the pieces in the wood stove in his next start...
Is there going to be a point when everyone's healthy? Seems like fantasy land to me lol
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,195
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Post by radiohix on Jul 5, 2022 17:53:56 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 7, 2022 17:02:13 GMT -5
I know a 6-man rotation has been speculated.
But given that Sale didn't make it through 4 in his last outing, Bello seems like a good fit to piggyback on Tuesday.
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Post by stunzisox on Jul 7, 2022 17:14:17 GMT -5
Bello, confirmed by Cora, to start Monday in the Trop.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 7, 2022 18:04:25 GMT -5
Bello, confirmed by Cora, to start Monday in the Trop. Thanks - missed that. Hoping for the best, but may be a long couple of days for the bullpen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 9, 2022 18:02:39 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2022 16:38:34 GMT -5
Bello's GB numbers by batted ball direction, plus all balls in play. The first pair of lines is expected, first MLB and then him, and the second pair is actual. Numbers are BA / SLG = wOBA. I'm looking this up as I type!
Keep in mind that expected stats ignore batted ball direction. That's why the MLB pulled balls are apparently "unlucky" and the oppo grounders are apparently "lucky."
If this many numbers intimidate you, just read the text conclusions!
GB Pull (12) .237 / .264 = .220 MLB
.191 / .207 = .176 .185 / .221 = .177 MLB .417 / .538 = .431
Holy crap. He has an 80 expected wOBA- ... but 244 results.
GB Straight (9)
.243 / .267 = .225 MLB
.160 / .169 = .148 .241 / .245 = .215 MLB .333 / .333 = .295
Here he has a 70 and and a 137.
GB Oppo (6)
.235 / .257 = .218 MLB
.232 / .257 = .216 .438 / .479 = .403 MLB
.500 / .500 = .442
99 versus 110, nothing special.
GB%:
.435 MLB
.587 That would rank 6th out of 212 pitchers with 40 IP.
So not only has he been a ground ball machine, he's gotten worse contact than average on pulled and up-the-middle grounders.
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All Balls in play (46)
.322 / .424 = 363 MLB
.320 / .432 = .326
.323 / .527 = .361 MLB .478 / .696 = .504
He has a 90 wOBA- expected ... but a 140 actual.
Compared to the 274 pitchers with 100 balls in play ...
He would rank in the 88th percentile for xwOBA in all balls in play ... and next to last in wOBA.
----
Let's do the 224 pitchers who have given up 50 grounders or more ...
He would rank sixth in xwOBA, right behind Shane McClanahan ... and next to last again (to a different guy) in wOBA.
So far, he's been in the 98th percentile for eliciting ground balls and the 97th percentile for the effectiveness of contact on those grounders.
Now, his K/W has not been good at all, and it appears as if his contact allowed on liners and flies is also below average.
But he has been a monster who scares monsters when it comes to grounders. There are just 2 pitchers in MLB who rank in the top 6 in either GB% or GB Contact Effectiveness, and the top 30 in the other (i.e., on the first page in FanGraphs) , and they are Clay Holmes (1st and 3rd) and Shane McLanahan (5th and 28th).
I actually suspect that his sinker is so good that hitters are not hitting it where the data (based on the a more ordinary group of pitchers) says they would. And then there's crap luck.
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 26, 2022 14:21:08 GMT -5
Definitely think he's been unlucky based on contact, but his BB/9 is 2x from AAA and his K/9 is halved. So he's not giving himself much margin for error to be lucky.
The AL East has been a nightmare for our staff, so hopefully he gets a start or two against some new blood. Still feel good about this kid in the long run as a starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2022 14:42:30 GMT -5
Definitely think he's been unlucky based on contact, but his BB/9 is 2x from AAA and his K/9 is halved. So he's not giving himself much margin for error to be lucky. The AL East has been a nightmare for our staff, so hopefully he gets a start or two against some new blood. Still feel good about this kid in the long run as a starter. He has also been squeezed by umps more than any pitcher I've seen this year. Some of those missed obvious strike calls led to 3+ more runs allowed that inning.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 26, 2022 14:48:42 GMT -5
that elite groundball rate explains how he can have a 3.88 FIP despite the horrific ERA and so far poor BB/K numbers
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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2022 16:10:14 GMT -5
that elite groundball rate explains how he can have a 3.88 FIP despite the horrific ERA and so far poor BB/K numbers Actually, I think it's the 0% HR rate that's relevant to FIP, which doesn't factor in GB rate. More sophisticated metrics would though. (I think xERA does? Which is 4.60 for him.)
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Post by ramireja on Aug 5, 2022 11:25:41 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Aug 26, 2022 11:03:57 GMT -5
Peep the whole twitter thread if you can. If he's commanding that CH, it pairs beautifully with his sinker:
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Post by orion09 on Aug 29, 2022 12:21:57 GMT -5
May be a tad early, but I would like to see the Sox think about signing Bello to a Whitlockian extension sometime in the next year or so. Get him some guaranteed money, and potentially buy out one or two FA years. That’s a gamble worth taking IMO
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 29, 2022 12:36:35 GMT -5
May be a tad early, but I would like to see the Sox think about signing Bello to a Whitlockian extension sometime in the next year or so. Get him some guaranteed money, and potentially buy out one or two FA years. That’s a gamble worth taking IMO Speier suggested the other day that the team would be pursuing these deals, and that they hadn't done so under DD.
Seems like it'd be pretty tough for any pitcher to turn the Whitlock deal down unless they got a huge draft bonus or something.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2022 17:41:01 GMT -5
tl, dr version: This is awesome.
-----
So, Bello's season so far divides so easily it's almost stupid. He had 3 starts and a bulk appearance in July and fanned 13 of 83 batters while walking or hitting 13. In August and September he's had three starts and a 2-out relief appearance and he's fanned 16 of 67 hitters while walking or hitting 5.
That's a 52.5% improvement in K rate and a 52.4% improvement in free-pass rate. Seriously.
When you look at his batted ball numbers, it gets confusing. Here's his xwOBA and wOBA on balls in play (the MLB average is .361):
.327 / .448 July .347 / .332 August / September
Has he really been worse in August when contact has been made? But lucky?
The .015 points of wOBA in question are not trivial. In Augst and September he's had a .302 overall xwOBA, and a .302 wOBA makes you an average #3 starter. But he's had a .268 wOBA, and if that's for real, that's a strong #2. It would rank 19th in MLB.
Now, if you've read my past posts on xwOBA, you know it can't be fully trusted, because it ignores where the ball is hit. Opposite field grounders this season have a wOBA that's 1.84 times expected. Pulled flyballs are 1.42, while fly balls hit to CF are 0.65 and pulled grounders are 0.82.
(Yes, I did a lot of preliminary work to verify that you adjust for this by using the ratio.)
Let's go back to this:
.327 / .448 July (xwOBA / wOBA on balls in play.)
It's possible that Bello had bad batted ball direction in July, and that some significant portion of that immense .121 difference was for real. But I have the numbers to test for that.
What happens when you adjust the .327 xwOBA for where and how the balls were hit?
You get .327. He was absolutely average for batted ball direction, and so the .448 was all bad luck. All .121 of it.
And how about this?
.347 / .332 August
What happens you adjust that .347 for where and how the balls were hit?
You get .334. He's been the tiniest bit lucky, and the .347 xwOBA is an inflated number because it doesn't take into consideration where the balls have gone.
The .347 represents the quality of contact ignoring direction, and of course you can expect hitters to make a bit better contact when he's pounding the zone. But if his excellent K/W ratio is a product of better command, the you would expect him to be able to limit that better contact to less dangerous directions. And he has. He's has 0 pulled fly balls and 1 opposite-field grounder since August 1st. Guys are hitting the ball a bit better off of him than in July, but to worse places, and the latter come within a hair of canceling out the former.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 5, 2022 18:35:48 GMT -5
All that matches the eye test to me - he appeared to have terrible luck on balls in play in his first few starts, and then the last few starts look much better because of the K and BB rates.
I'd point out that there's a certain kind of hit he has yet to give up in his major league career, but I don't want to jinx it. Suffice it to say there's at least *some* luck there, but I wonder if it's *all* luck.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 5, 2022 18:48:57 GMT -5
Bello has already thrown 128.0 innings across Aa, AAA, and MLB. I do not know how many more innings the FO will let him pitch, but my guess is maybe only two or three more max. In 2021 he only threw 95.1 innings between A+ and AA.
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cdj
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Posts: 13,853
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Post by cdj on Sept 5, 2022 20:12:40 GMT -5
All that matches the eye test to me - he appeared to have terrible luck on balls in play in his first few starts, and then the last few starts look much better because of the K and BB rates. I'd point out that there's a certain kind of hit he has yet to give up in his major league career, but I don't want to jinx it. Suffice it to say there's at least *some* luck there, but I wonder if it's *all* luck. Power sinkers 😍😍
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 6, 2022 1:51:55 GMT -5
All that matches the eye test to me - he appeared to have terrible luck on balls in play in his first few starts, and then the last few starts look much better because of the K and BB rates. I'd point out that there's a certain kind of hit he has yet to give up in his major league career, but I don't want to jinx it. Suffice it to say there's at least *some* luck there, but I wonder if it's *all* luck. Well, 54% of those hits are pulled fly balls, and 36% of pulled fly balls are those hits.
He's only given up 2 pulled fly balls, and they have xwOBA's of .009 and .483 (xSA of .017 and .840). The average pulled fly ball of those hits has a 1.284 xwOBA.
19% of those hits are center fly balls, where it takes an average 1.616 xwOBA. 9.5% of center fly balls are this hit, and he's had 10 of those with an average xwOBA of .555. The worst of them had a 1.203 xwOBA and a 2.30 xSA. Of the 362 fly balls to CF with an xSA of 2.20 to 2.40, 56 were this hit, a fraction less than 9%.
(Of the 914 of these hit to center, 150 had a lower xSA. So 16% of these hits to CF as fly balls are cheaper than his worst ... but I', not sure that tells us anything more.)
The other types of this hit are too rare to bother with and he has very low xwOBA's.
So, there's no evident luck involved here at all except the absence of usual bad luck, if you get my meaning. If you throw a perfect game, fanning 10, and the other 17 guys all have a .180 xBA, the expected number of hits is 3. You were 3 hits lucky, but you never gave up anything close to a hit and the universal perception would be "didn't need any luck." Bello has yet to give up anything that comes close to the thing he hasn't given up.
BTW, I spotted a very mysterious mistake in my spreadsheet. Turns out his adjusted xwOBA since August 1 is not .322 but .324, so he has been a tiny bit lucky. I'll fix the main post next.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 6, 2022 12:33:50 GMT -5
All that talent and the Sox have never had Pedro work with him, from all accounts. I mean, why pay him as a "special advisor" or whatever if they aren't asking him to give 3 or 4 hours to a kid with this talent.
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Post by Addam603 on Sept 15, 2022 11:21:40 GMT -5
Bello over his first three starts:
12 IP, 22 H, 14 ER, 8 BB, 9 Ks. 10.50 ERA
Bello in his last seven appearances:
30.1 IP, 29 H, 10 ER, 13 BBs, 33 Ks. 2.97 ERA.
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2022 11:39:30 GMT -5
Bello over his first three starts: 12 IP, 22 H, 14 ER, 8 BB, 9 Ks. 10.50 ERA Bello in his last seven appearances: 30.1 IP, 29 H, 10 ER, 13 BBs, 33 Ks. 2.97 ERA. And truthfully I thought he looked better in his first 3 starts than those numbers suggest. It feels like virtually every game he’s pitched he’s been better than his final line. I’d be pleased if I was just following stats, but having watched most of these games, I’m pretty much frothing at the mouth with excitement.
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