cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 15, 2022 11:41:12 GMT -5
Bello over his first three starts: 12 IP, 22 H, 14 ER, 8 BB, 9 Ks. 10.50 ERA Bello in his last seven appearances: 30.1 IP, 29 H, 10 ER, 13 BBs, 33 Ks. 2.97 ERA. And truthfully I thought he looked better in his first 3 starts than those numbers suggest. It feels like virtually every game he’s pitched he’s been better than his final line. I’d be pleased if I was just following stats, but having watched most of these games, I’m pretty much frothing at the mouth with excitement. Him adding a 12-6 hook will be obscene
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 15, 2022 13:38:02 GMT -5
And truthfully I thought he looked better in his first 3 starts than those numbers suggest. It feels like virtually every game he’s pitched he’s been better than his final line. I’d be pleased if I was just following stats, but having watched most of these games, I’m pretty much frothing at the mouth with excitement. Him adding a 12-6 hook will be obscene I just need him to master throwing his two seamer to the glove side: The number of LHB he’ll freeze with that pitch makes me salivate lol
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Post by seamus on Sept 15, 2022 14:53:37 GMT -5
And truthfully I thought he looked better in his first 3 starts than those numbers suggest. It feels like virtually every game he’s pitched he’s been better than his final line. I’d be pleased if I was just following stats, but having watched most of these games, I’m pretty much frothing at the mouth with excitement. Him adding a 12-6 hook will be obscene If he comes into spring training throwing a 12-6, I'm figuring out a way to bet on him to win the Cy.
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Post by Addam603 on Sept 15, 2022 16:07:02 GMT -5
Bello over his first three starts: 12 IP, 22 H, 14 ER, 8 BB, 9 Ks. 10.50 ERA Bello in his last seven appearances: 30.1 IP, 29 H, 10 ER, 13 BBs, 33 Ks. 2.97 ERA. And truthfully I thought he looked better in his first 3 starts than those numbers suggest. It feels like virtually every game he’s pitched he’s been better than his final line. I’d be pleased if I was just following stats, but having watched most of these games, I’m pretty much frothing at the mouth with excitement. Yeah, he has looked really good by the eye test. He just needs some consistency and better defense behind him. His 2.79 FIP backs that up.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 15, 2022 16:24:28 GMT -5
And truthfully I thought he looked better in his first 3 starts than those numbers suggest. It feels like virtually every game he’s pitched he’s been better than his final line. I’d be pleased if I was just following stats, but having watched most of these games, I’m pretty much frothing at the mouth with excitement. Yeah, he has looked really good by the eye test. He just needs some consistency and better defense behind him. His 2.79 FIP backs that up. …..especially batter defense (and a bullpen that does not let every inherited base runner score).
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bigmarty58
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Post by bigmarty58 on Sept 15, 2022 16:56:25 GMT -5
Future for Brayan sure looks bright.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 15, 2022 18:37:00 GMT -5
Re: Yankee game... Bello even incorporated a brand new pitch, a curveball, which he learned from Rich Hill earlier in the week. It was so new that Statcast didn’t register it, but Bello plans to keep refining it over the next few weeks.
“I’ve been practicing my curveball the past few days,” he said. “And I was able to throw it today twice against lefties so that’s a pitch I’m going to add to my repertoire in the future.” theathletic.com/3596694/2022/09/15/brayan-bello-yankees-red-sox/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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Post by kwodes on Sept 15, 2022 19:13:16 GMT -5
So when will the contract extension talks start? Let's buy out some free agent years!!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 15, 2022 23:34:32 GMT -5
There are 142 starting pitchers that have faced 100+ hitters since August 1. So that's basically the rotation of every team.
Bello ranks 32nd in wOBA and 35th in xwOBA. Ranking 30th would make you a league-average #2 starter.
There are 150 starters with 20 IP. Bello ranks 10th in FIP- and 36th in xFIP-. But I'm inclined to use only the Statcast numbers henceforth, while adjusting them for batted ball distribution when possible (doing everyone in MLB is not much more effort than doing one guy, and I intend do that after the season is over).
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bloomstaxonomy
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Sept 16, 2022 8:13:44 GMT -5
So when will the contract extension talks start? Let's buy out some free agent years!!! I think we're going to see a wave of long-term extensions like this, this time with our own players. The Braves and the Rays come to mind as teams that have been particularly adept at negotiations like this in recent times. I'd rather wait until after the 2023 season, because I don't think there would be that much difference in the financial risk (you might have to spend a little bit more to lock him up) but you have one full season to evaluate him as a player. Whitlock was a good start and a savvy move. I think and hope this wave will include Bello and Casas and maybe (just maybe) someone like Verdugo. He's still only 26. He's hasn't necessarily played like a "core" player, but a fairly consistent 2 WAR player is nothing to sneeze at. A lot of consternation could have been saved by locking up Devers after 2019, but the payroll was a mess then, by all accounts.
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Post by seamus on Sept 16, 2022 9:13:59 GMT -5
There are 142 starting pitchers that have faced 100+ hitters since August 1. So that's basically the rotation of every team.
Bello ranks 32nd in wOBA and 35th in xwOBA. Ranking 30th would make you a league-average #2 starter.
There are 150 starters with 20 IP. Bello ranks 10th in FIP- and 36th in xFIP-. But I'm inclined to use only the Statcast numbers henceforth, while adjusting them for batted ball distribution when possible (doing everyone in MLB is not much more effort than doing one guy, and I intend do that after the season is over).
Really good context. I think a lot of folks tend to overrate just how good each starter in the rotation has to be for it to be solid. Bello may already be a #2 and eying a #1 spot, which is incredibly impressive and extremely exciting.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 16, 2022 9:16:13 GMT -5
So when will the contract extension talks start? Let's buy out some free agent years!!! I think we're going to see a wave of long-term extensions like this, this time with our own players. The Braves and the Rays come to mind as teams that have been particularly adept at negotiations like this in recent times. I'd rather wait until after the 2023 season, because I don't think there would be that much difference in the financial risk (you might have to spend a little bit more to lock him up) but you have one full season to evaluate him as a player. Whitlock was a good start and a savvy move. I think and hope this wave will include Bello and Casas and maybe (just maybe) someone like Verdugo. He's still only 26. He's hasn't necessarily played like a "core" player, but a fairly consistent 2 WAR player is nothing to sneeze at. A lot of consternation could have been saved by locking up Devers after 2019, but the payroll was a mess then, by all accounts. I'll be honest I wouldn't be in much of a rush to lock up Bello yet. I'd wait till next offseason to try and do it.
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Post by bosox904 on Sept 16, 2022 9:26:06 GMT -5
I think we're going to see a wave of long-term extensions like this, this time with our own players. The Braves and the Rays come to mind as teams that have been particularly adept at negotiations like this in recent times. I'd rather wait until after the 2023 season, because I don't think there would be that much difference in the financial risk (you might have to spend a little bit more to lock him up) but you have one full season to evaluate him as a player. Whitlock was a good start and a savvy move. I think and hope this wave will include Bello and Casas and maybe (just maybe) someone like Verdugo. He's still only 26. He's hasn't necessarily played like a "core" player, but a fairly consistent 2 WAR player is nothing to sneeze at. A lot of consternation could have been saved by locking up Devers after 2019, but the payroll was a mess then, by all accounts. I'll be honest I wouldn't be in much of a rush to lock up Bello yet. I'd wait till next offseason to try and do it. Yea this is much more risky with pitchers in most cases, which is probably why even Atlanta has yet to do it. I would be shocked if you could get Bello to sign something similar to Whitlock.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 16, 2022 10:44:51 GMT -5
I'll be honest I wouldn't be in much of a rush to lock up Bello yet. I'd wait till next offseason to try and do it. Yea this is much more risky with pitchers in most cases, which is probably why even Atlanta has yet to do it. I would be shocked if you could get Bello to sign something similar to Whitlock. Yes that's my line of thinking as well. Sure if he'd sign for something in line with what Whitlock got I'd be all for it but as you said I think it'd take more.
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Post by seamus on Sept 16, 2022 11:08:31 GMT -5
Most teams are probably comfortable just taking advantage of the low-cost years for pitchers and letting big spenders pay full freight for the few starters that survive six years of team control. It's a cynical approach, but it makes sense. Bullpen guys are the prime extension candidates, especially multi-inning relievers with starting potential (a la Whitlock).
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 16, 2022 11:08:52 GMT -5
The team can absorb the risk much better than Bello can, which makes him a perfect candidate to sign to a long term contract.
A young pitcher that hasn't made any money and is three years away from his first arbitration hearing should want to dramatically reduce the volatility of his future earnings. The Red Sox should be happy with any outcome that significantly increases the mean value they receive from his career.
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Post by Addam603 on Sept 16, 2022 11:15:32 GMT -5
You also have to wonder if Bello’s signing conditions will impact his decision. It’s not like he was a huge bonus baby or early round pick with money in the bank. He’s been making minor league pay for the last five years after a $28,000 signing bonus.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 16, 2022 11:53:22 GMT -5
My thoughts on Bello is that ideally with an extension to a young player you want to be able to buy out 2 years of their FA status. So with Bello you'd have to give him a 7-8 year deal. It's pretty rare that a team does that type of FA buy out on a young pitcher so what that does that look like money wise? To me its just too risky right now with his wide range of outcomes outside of doing a Whitlock type bargain which if your Bello do you want to do or would he rather bet on himself? It's a tough question to answer in my mind.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 16, 2022 12:22:34 GMT -5
Very out on a 7-8 year deal for literally any pitcher, pretty much.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 16, 2022 14:44:36 GMT -5
How can you blame coaching when the kid could've just googled "curveball grip" and taught himself? SMH no way he turns into a top of the rotation guy with that lack of drive.
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Post by orion09 on Sept 16, 2022 16:52:48 GMT -5
Whitlock signed for 4y/$18.75M guaranteed, plus the two years at league minimum ($570k and $700k), so the equivalent at Bello’s service time would be a 6y/$20M guarantee, ie $3.3M AAV.
Maybe it takes a little more than that for Bello. How would the board feel about, say, 7y/$42M ($6M AAV) with a $12M team option? He would need to put up like 5 WAR to break even, so 4 healthy years as a #5. Anything over that would be surplus, and if he pitches like a #2 or #3 it would be a steal. I think I pull the trigger on that
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 16, 2022 17:23:07 GMT -5
He would need to put up like 5 WAR to break even They already have the extremely lucrative option of just going year to year with him, so the break-even point on an extension is a deal that is as good as doing that. I think 7/42 with an option is significantly worse than going year to year. I would aim for something like the Whitlock deal + 25% - 6/25 with a couple options.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 18, 2022 12:11:57 GMT -5
As of right now Bello is 43 innings pitched above his 2021 total. Is this something to be concerned/shut him down about, or aren't we worried about innings progression any more?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 18, 2022 12:34:12 GMT -5
As of right now Bello is 43 innings pitched above his 2021 total. Is this something to be concerned/shut him down about, or aren't we worried about innings progression any more? I honestly don't know if this is relevant or not, but he pitched 118 innings in 2019 so he's only 20 IP above that mark.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 19, 2022 19:34:55 GMT -5
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