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Post by tyler3 on Jun 5, 2021 23:30:25 GMT -5
I don’t know if he can possibly keep this up…but with the qualifying offer accepted… which means no draft pick to give up….is it time to at least consider Gausman next year?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 6, 2021 3:07:49 GMT -5
I think that if you simply changed the thread title to "The Rotation in 2022" you'll get a lot of excellent discussion. And that is the topic, right? We're not going to start a thread for every possible addition to (or subtraction from) the rotation. And we really have to start by seeing what the rotation next year looks like.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 6, 2021 10:06:16 GMT -5
I changed the title so there could be some more general conversation about the 2022 rotation and going forward.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 6, 2021 10:24:59 GMT -5
We have team options on Richards and Perez. Have to bring both back if healthy. 6 man rotation with Sale back. Extend E-Rod.
Looming possibilities such as; Whitlock, Hauck and Seabold. Amazingly, it doesn’t appear we have go outside organization. Hope we can also add Jack Leiter and Noah Song.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 6, 2021 11:51:19 GMT -5
We have team options on Richards and Perez. Have to bring both back if healthy. 6 man rotation with Sale back. Extend E-Rod. Looming possibilities such as; Whitlock, Hauck and Seabold. Amazingly, it doesn’t appear we have go outside organization. Hope we can also add Jack Leiter and Noah Song. Richards seems like a no brainer. Depth is starting to develop. Sale will be coming back. Erod I suspect signs elsewhere IF free agency follows historical norms. ( starting pitchers will be valued highly). I see us grabbing a few depth guys again. Song will be a long ways off and hopefully Leiter is in some other organization BUT our depth continues to develop be it song or bello or others.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 6, 2021 12:47:25 GMT -5
Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Richards, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck already looks good enough to me. One or two will probably fall off by the end of the year, but if not Bloom should be able to sit back and only add a starter if the deal presents excellent value.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 6, 2021 15:58:33 GMT -5
Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Richards, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck already looks good enough to me. One or two will probably fall off by the end of the year, but if not Bloom should be able to sit back and only add a starter if the deal presents excellent value. IMO Bloom will look for an additional starter like Richards (one year plus an option) to add to the mix. That would give additional depth, and it would give him the ability to trade a starter for any hole the Red Sox need to plug like a young starting catcher of the future or short stop if X opts out.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 6, 2021 16:02:23 GMT -5
Rotational depth looks to be outstanding next year, better than it’s been in a long time.
I’d still like to see an Ace at the top to pair with Sale. A nice 1-2 punch to scare any team in a 7 game series.
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Post by jbsox on Jun 6, 2021 16:26:20 GMT -5
Bloom talks about sustainability, and I wonder with Eovaldi, Perez, and Richards all expiring next year if options are picked up if he looks to deal 1 or 2 of them for a longer controllable possibly suppressed asset like another Pivetta. Erod is going to interesting to see what Bloom does with him. It would be great if Houck and/or Whitlock take the leap to starter next year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 6, 2021 17:01:26 GMT -5
In every scenario I was considering, Perez was traded at the deadline this year because he wasn't one of our six best pitchers, and maybe you had Pivetta share the #5 rotation spot with Hoick next year.
Rebooting that ...
Givens for next year, as it seems right now:
Sale Pivetta Whitlock Perez ($5.5M option less buyout picked up) Richards ($8.5M option less buyout, plus unknown escalators, picked up)
That means you can either not re-sign E-Rod, or trade Eovaldi with one year left on his deal. More tasty prospects coming our way in the latter scenario. I think E-Rod will sign a team-friendly contract and is there for the taking if their analysis says it's a good idea -- and right now it seems like it will be.
Houck would be 7th on the depth chart, and hopefully Seabold 8th.
I think that using Sale every 6th game while skipping everyone else every fifth turn, which I suspect they'll do this year, might be a keeper. It's 27 starts per pitcher.
What's the downside of taking 5.4 starts from each of your five best pitchers and giving them to your 6th best? For most clubs, significant. But looking at the list of 6 guys ... just who is the least best? They all look like #3 starters or better. That's crazy.
The upside of starting just 27 games may be considerable in terms of avoiding injuries. It may turn Sale from a mediocre September / October pitcher into .... Chris Sale. When someone is on the IL, you can go to a regular 6-man rotation, or stick with Plan 27 and insert Houck -- and I remain convinced he's good enough to join this party.
In the meantime, Houck is in the Whitlock role as a high-leverage multi-inning reliever. Even better, maybe the Bob Stanley role as the "long reliever who can actually pitch" (quoting Bill James, I think). If you had a way of predicting whether a pitcher struggling early could get his act together, you could pull the plug after a couple of innings.
And I did that study on Josh Beckett (alas, after the 2008 playoffs) and discovered that he, for one, essentially never settled down after being hit hard early. But what I have in mind here is something even better: based on deep metrics, predicting that a guy who was lucky to escape the first 2 or 3 innings unscathed was a ticking time-bomb, and pulling him right then.
I think shopping for starting pitching will not be remotely necessary.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 6, 2021 17:26:12 GMT -5
Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Richards, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck already looks good enough to me. One or two will probably fall off by the end of the year, but if not Bloom should be able to sit back and only add a starter if the deal presents excellent value. And if they don't?
An outrageous scenario that just occurred to me: trading E-Rod at the deadline for a crazy-good return, and not skipping a beat in contending or in the post-season.
Obviously, everything would have to go right, including Hock and Seabold.
But think: Sale starts game 1 of the ALCS. What's the rest of your rotation? Right now there are five guys you'd be comfortable with. It's not obvious that E-Rod will be the #2 or #3 and pitch twice.
In this scenario, Whitlock would replace him in the rotation, and Houck would take Whitlock's role.
And then, if you want, you can still sign E-Rod and trade Eovaldi.
So: ideal target would be a small-market team (i.e., can't afford to re-sign him) with a deep farm system that sees a unique opportunity to maybe win a WS, if they only had one more top-of-rotation starter.
You know (and I swear I came up with this after typing the previous sentence), like the Rays!
I think the best hope? The Padres have another rash of injuries. Other than that, it's hard to see.
Note that Eovaldi, who I have just traded during the winter in my last post, would be another piece you could move at the deadline in this dream, everything good happens scenario.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 6, 2021 18:11:50 GMT -5
Isn’t Richards’ option $10 mill + possible increase on performance this season?
I am not convinced you pick that up. He’s been ok, but he toes the line. We’ll see the rest of the year. I could see a scenario where $10 million can be better spent.
As for trading ERod, it feels like a bind: if he’s pitching well, you probably want him around. If not, how much do you get for a guy pitching poorly in his last year?
It seems impossible to make decisions because a) everything will be based on where they are vis-a-vis the playoffs; and b) they’ll need to see how health is both in the rotation and the minors.
I mean, just as an example, Houck and Seabold have elbow issues. What does that look like in August? Are they looking like rotation pieces next year or is one or the other in Dr. Jobe’s waiting room?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 6, 2021 19:45:03 GMT -5
Richards is definitely worth $10M. The better question is it worth bringing back ERod? Might be better to let him go with the health issues he has had and the upgrades we need to make in the lineup.
I do kinda like the idea of trading Eovaldi if he has a really nice year and selling high on him.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 6, 2021 23:49:14 GMT -5
Richards is definitely worth $10M. The better question is it worth bringing back ERod? Might be better to let him go with the health issues he has had and the upgrades we need to make in the lineup. I do kinda like the idea of trading Eovaldi if he has a really nice year and selling high on him. Totally agree. An interesting question will be if the Sox extend a QO to Erod??
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Post by jclmontana on Jun 7, 2021 0:44:32 GMT -5
Richards is definitely worth $10M. The better question is it worth bringing back ERod? Might be better to let him go with the health issues he has had and the upgrades we need to make in the lineup. I do kinda like the idea of trading Eovaldi if he has a really nice year and selling high on him. Totally agree. An interesting question will be if the Sox extend a QO to Erod?? Unless Erod is badly injured—UCL injury or equivalent severity—he definitely gets a QO. He is absolutely going to seek a multi-year deal and if he has any kind of market at all, he’ll turn down the QO. And if he does accept it, there is a pretty good chance he’s worth it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 7, 2021 2:56:53 GMT -5
Isn’t Richards’ option $10 mill + possible increase on performance this season? I am not convinced you pick that up. He’s been ok, but he toes the line. We’ll see the rest of the year. I could see a scenario where $10 million can be better spent. As for trading ERod, it feels like a bind: if he’s pitching well, you probably want him around. If not, how much do you get for a guy pitching poorly in his last year? It seems impossible to make decisions because a) everything will be based on where they are vis-a-vis the playoffs; and b) they’ll need to see how health is both in the rotation and the minors. I mean, just as an example, Houck and Seabold have elbow issues. What does that look like in August? Are they looking like rotation pieces next year or is one or the other in Dr. Jobe’s waiting room? Everyone thinks he's getting $10M this year, but that's the AAV value that includes a $1.5M buyout of the 2022 option. His salary this year is $8.5M. They'll pay him $10M next year, but it's $8.5M against the AAV, and $8.5M more than they have already committed to.
As for the rest of your post, I went into detail outlining the set of circumstances that would have to converge to make it possible. I also have an equally detailed scenario where I might date Sharon Stone.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 7, 2021 8:54:43 GMT -5
Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Richards, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck already looks good enough to me. One or two will probably fall off by the end of the year, but if not Bloom should be able to sit back and only add a starter if the deal presents excellent value. And if they don't?
An outrageous scenario that just occurred to me: trading E-Rod at the deadline for a crazy-good return, and not skipping a beat in contending or in the post-season.
Obviously, everything would have to go right, including Hock and Seabold.
But think: Sale starts game 1 of the ALCS. What's the rest of your rotation? Right now there are five guys you'd be comfortable with. It's not obvious that E-Rod will be the #2 or #3 and pitch twice.
In this scenario, Whitlock would replace him in the rotation, and Houck would take Whitlock's role.
And then, if you want, you can still sign E-Rod and trade Eovaldi.
So: ideal target would be a small-market team (i.e., can't afford to re-sign him) with a deep farm system that sees a unique opportunity to maybe win a WS, if they only had one more top-of-rotation starter.
You know (and I swear I came up with this after typing the previous sentence), like the Rays!
I think the best hope? The Padres have another rash of injuries. Other than that, it's hard to see.
Note that Eovaldi, who I have just traded during the winter in my last post, would be another piece you could move at the deadline in this dream, everything good happens scenario.
Not quite about next year's rotation except in a negative way: if we are trading our 2021 #6 starter at the deadline, isn't it for a LHH first baseman, preferably one who can take a walk and maybe is above average at pinch-hitting, maybe plays a little LF, and can play for us in 2022? This presumes one of our switch-hitters does not start partying like it's 2019.
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 7, 2021 9:08:42 GMT -5
Starting to think I’d rather spend ERod $ elsewhere next season.
Sale Eovaldi Pivetta Richards Perez Whitlock Houck Seabold
With those 8 is there really a need to spend ~$20M AAV for a guy who’s not an ace? Not saying he’s not a good pitcher but I just don’t think he’s *that much better* than the next man up that would replace him to justify the spend. Bonus points being you get the QO return presumably.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 7, 2021 9:26:24 GMT -5
Starting to think I’d rather spend ERod $ elsewhere next season. Sale Eovaldi Pivetta Richards Perez Whitlock Houck Seabold With those 8 is there really a need to spend ~$20M AAV for a guy who’s not an ace? Not saying he’s not a good pitcher but I just don’t think he’s *that much better* than the next man up that would replace him to justify the spend. Bonus points being you get the QO return presumably. My only issue with that list of guys is that there are a lot of injuries waiting to happen. Not that E-Rod changes that, but it seems like his problems are hopefully more of a thing of the past. They also aren’t really arm-related iirc I do like the idea of that money going towards a bat though
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 7, 2021 10:17:01 GMT -5
Starting to think I’d rather spend ERod $ elsewhere next season. Sale Eovaldi Pivetta Richards Perez Whitlock Houck Seabold With those 8 is there really a need to spend ~$20M AAV for a guy who’s not an ace? Not saying he’s not a good pitcher but I just don’t think he’s *that much better* than the next man up that would replace him to justify the spend. Bonus points being you get the QO return presumably. My only issue with that list of guys is that there are a lot of injuries waiting to happen. Not that E-Rod changes that, but it seems like his problems are hopefully more of a thing of the past. They also aren’t really arm-related iirc I do like the idea of that money going towards a bat though Right, I think a Perez / Richards (probably closer to Perez) type (5-10M w. team option) is a better hedge against the injury bug than a big spend on ERod.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Jun 7, 2021 10:19:34 GMT -5
I do believe that E-Rod will be trade, as several of you mention, it will cost too much money to keep him, he's not an ACE, plus after all the health issues that he had, things can get worse and we end up stuck with him. There's also a possibility that our youngsters, can fill the 5th spot even 4th one. The returned of Sale and how quick he will be ready will be key. Sale Eovaldi Pivetta Richards Perez Whitlock Houck Seabold
And there's always some fairly decent pitchers available.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 7, 2021 12:17:03 GMT -5
Why do people keep talking about ERod’s health issues? Guy had a bum knee and Covid! Hardly ominous signs. There are reasons for letting him go, but the idea that his health is more precarious than Richards’, Eovaldi’s, or Sale’s seems dubious.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 7, 2021 12:40:20 GMT -5
If Eduardo Rodriguez and his agent are willing to take a deal like the one McCullers signed with Astros, you sign him right f##king there. Eduardo Rodriguez is a damn good pitcher.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2021 12:40:34 GMT -5
On ERod, the one major issue he's had is keeping the ball in the yard: www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/statsHe's otherwise been just as good as the rest of the rotation, if not slightly better (e.g., K and BB rates compare favorably to the rest of the rotation). That said, although he's got a career-high HR rate, it's kind of always been a little high: www.fangraphs.com/players/eduardo-rodriguez/13164/stats?position=PThe questions are whether he can fix it and whether he (1) will and (2) should be paid as though he can.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2021 15:49:37 GMT -5
The Red Sox have over 60 million coming of the books next year I could see them signing Max Scherzer to a 2 year contract next year and being part of this rotation. I was hoping Noah Syndergaard would come back strong from TJ. They will spend next year and make a splash maybe they sign Carlos Correa to play 2B instead let Xander Bogaerts walk then move Correa back to SS. I would much rather they spend on pitching in 2022.
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