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Franchy Cordero, the enigma
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 14, 2021 8:34:50 GMT -5
Speaking of the jump being harder than ever I have been meaning to ask you guys opinions and thoughts on Franchy. I mean really it is a real question as to how he goes from needing to find his swing and being totally lost in the majors to being a beast immediately at AAA. It is night and day.
As I said before, if you look at the pitching overall in the majors this year and how they have been more dominant and everything to do with batting stats being significantly down. It really has to be the proliferation of elevated spin rates and taking the sticky stuff to a new level. Is that the largest denominator in the Franchy question? His OPS is double at AAA and we aren't even excited about it. Historically if a vet goes down or is rehabbing in the minors and performs like that their is reason for optimism and excitement to call him up, yet crickets.
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Post by manfred on Jun 14, 2021 10:24:17 GMT -5
I think it is more than sticky stuff. It is stuff, period. It is parks. It is advanced scouting. It is the focus on winning, not development (that is, at the major league level, people aren’t trying to *add* serviceable 2nd or 3rd pitches in-game) etc.
As someone said, you can look at a guy like Weber, who has some AAA success — then look at him in Fenway. He’s a real AAA starter, and he is major league batting practice.
When Franchy succeeds against teams that have a) a plan of attack and b) pitchers with the pitches to execute that plan… I’ll reconsider my view on him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 14, 2021 11:45:00 GMT -5
I think it is more than sticky stuff. It is stuff, period. It is parks. It is advanced scouting. It is the focus on winning, not development (that is, at the major league level, people aren’t trying to *add* serviceable 2nd or 3rd pitches in-game) etc. As someone said, you can look at a guy like Weber, who has some AAA success — then look at him in Fenway. He’s a real AAA starter, and he is major league batting practice. When Franchy succeeds against teams that have a) a plan of attack and b) pitchers with the pitches to execute that plan… I’ll reconsider my view on him. So with that in mind I take it you are not excited about Duran being promoted. Someone with a 1200 OPS in AAA isn't expected to succeed when at the next level? And the pitching at the ML level has just had an infusion of great talent? League ave OPS is 711.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 11:49:20 GMT -5
I was actually thinking the same thing, and thinking about making the same point but after reading someone else say it and thinking about it I'm not sure that's right.
That might have been a factor hurting Franchy, but everyone else was dealing with it too and he was still horrid compared to the rest of the league.
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Post by manfred on Jun 14, 2021 12:00:15 GMT -5
I think it is more than sticky stuff. It is stuff, period. It is parks. It is advanced scouting. It is the focus on winning, not development (that is, at the major league level, people aren’t trying to *add* serviceable 2nd or 3rd pitches in-game) etc. As someone said, you can look at a guy like Weber, who has some AAA success — then look at him in Fenway. He’s a real AAA starter, and he is major league batting practice. When Franchy succeeds against teams that have a) a plan of attack and b) pitchers with the pitches to execute that plan… I’ll reconsider my view on him. So with that in mind I take it you are not excited about Duran being promoted Someone with a 1200 OPS in AAA isn't expected to succeed when at the next level? I’m not *not* excited, but I’m cautious. I certainly don’t imagine he’ll just transfer his numbers. But I’m not arguing no one at AAA is real. I am suspicious that Franchy *immediately* got better. That is, he looked awful all year (I know… he’d been “better” before being sent down… it is relative, though)… and before he had time to make real adjustments, he’s roping. That leads me to suspect the difference is more in the pitching than what he’s doing.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 14, 2021 12:03:12 GMT -5
I think it is more than sticky stuff. It is stuff, period. It is parks. It is advanced scouting. It is the focus on winning, not development (that is, at the major league level, people aren’t trying to *add* serviceable 2nd or 3rd pitches in-game) etc. As someone said, you can look at a guy like Weber, who has some AAA success — then look at him in Fenway. He’s a real AAA starter, and he is major league batting practice. When Franchy succeeds against teams that have a) a plan of attack and b) pitchers with the pitches to execute that plan… I’ll reconsider my view on him. With Franchy, I think he needs to stay in the strike zone and if he chases, he's easy prey to major league pitchers. I don't know if he's staying in the strike zone in AAA more or if it's just that when he does get a pitch in AAA that's over the plate the pitching isn't good enough to overpower him. The Red Sox at some point should give him another chance, but not ahead of Duran. Only if/when Renfroe struggles against righties, which I would think would happen at some point. I get why the Sox are so darn attracted to him. But then again I understood why Wily Mo Pena was so attractive to them. I think the strike zone plate discipline theme is what makes or breaks these kinds of hitters. If he gets enough plate discipline he can be a monster. If he continues to get himself out by swinging at pitches that aren't strikes, major league pitchers will exploit him in a way that AAA pitchers cannot do.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 14, 2021 12:04:04 GMT -5
This is a 40 year old Bill James argument. If you apply a blanket penalty to minor league stats and treat that as equivalent to major league performance, you're going to do a better job of predicting the future than if you try and pick out AAAA players who can crush the minor leagues but will fail in the majors.
This has been a bedrock belief in statgeek circles for so long that I don't even know where to look for an argument backing it up with data.
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Post by manfred on Jun 14, 2021 12:14:27 GMT -5
I think it is more than sticky stuff. It is stuff, period. It is parks. It is advanced scouting. It is the focus on winning, not development (that is, at the major league level, people aren’t trying to *add* serviceable 2nd or 3rd pitches in-game) etc. As someone said, you can look at a guy like Weber, who has some AAA success — then look at him in Fenway. He’s a real AAA starter, and he is major league batting practice. When Franchy succeeds against teams that have a) a plan of attack and b) pitchers with the pitches to execute that plan… I’ll reconsider my view on him. With Franchy, I think he needs to stay in the strike zone and if he chases, he's easy prey to major league pitchers. I don't know if he's staying in the strike zone in AAA more or if it's just that when he does get a pitch in AAA that's over the plate the pitching isn't good enough to overpower him. The Red Sox at some point should give him another chance, but not ahead of Duran. Only if/when Renfroe struggles against righties, which I would think would happen at some point. I get why the Sox are so darn attracted to him. But then again I understood why Wily Mo Pena was so attractive to them. I think the strike zone plate discipline theme is what makes or breaks these kinds of hitters. If he gets enough plate discipline he can be a monster. If he continues to get himself out by swinging at pitches that aren't strikes, major league pitchers will exploit him in a way that AAA pitchers cannot do. Maybe. But — and I haven’t checked fangraphs or savant — it *seemed* like he was off on pitches in the zone, too. He seems basically to be a guess-and-hack guy. That’s why I am surprised he didn’t hit more HRs, but not surprised he didn’t hit more overall. When he runs into it, he’ll destroy it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 14, 2021 13:07:02 GMT -5
Age matters. Older players that crush AAA pitching and suck in the majors get called AAAA players.
He's just a hitter that crushes mistakes and struggles against good pitching. He'll get a lot more mistakes in the minors.
You can't compare him to Duran, age and experience are huge when comparing those two players.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 14, 2021 13:14:42 GMT -5
I think Chris did a great job in naming this thread, Franchy the enigma.
Just seems like their is a bigger difference between AAA and the bigs this year, as Chris said and it isn't easily explained. Regardless of who we are talking about in system or out, nobody is performing much. Just seems strange to me. Hopefully Duran can be the exception this year. Along with a pitcher or two.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 14, 2021 13:24:21 GMT -5
People keep neglecting the fact he didn’t really have a spring. He was showing some signs of life when he got sent down
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 14, 2021 13:54:26 GMT -5
Yes he was. He'd rocketed a few doubles down the right field line and then he blasted one at 118+ mph way out to the right field seats. Hard to know if that was just small samples stuff or if he was getting his timing down and starting to make contact.
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Post by soxinjersey on Jun 14, 2021 15:30:19 GMT -5
People keep neglecting the fact he didn’t really have a spring. He was showing some signs of life when he got sent down To me, this is the issue people tend to forget. The fact that AAA teams played intra-squad games in April significantly impacted roster construction in March, April, and May. In the last week of ST, few people expected the Sox to keep Franchy in Boston because they felt he wouldn't be ready after missing almost all of ST, but he played well in the final days and so he stayed up. IMO, the decision was based on the belief that whatever he did at the ATS wouldn't help him as much as actually playing games in the majors. Unfortunately, we all know the results. Similarly, after Chavis was sent down in March, he played intra-squad games for a month and then was called up after only a few actual games. It was like he was in mid-March in terms of preparation. How much did this affect his performance in Boston? The decisions on Franchy and Chavis didn't work out well, but everyone was in a difficult situation because of the unprecedented AAA schedule. A second factor here is that both players were obviously pressing (as almost all of the new Sox players continue to do). Give new players a chance to settle in, and we can hope for other breakthroughs (like Renfroe's and Arroyo's). I think I saw that Chavis has just been called up. I expect him to play better, and I'm eager to see Franchy get another chance.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 15, 2021 11:45:14 GMT -5
I'm confused because he had basically two months in the majors. I'd actually feel better if he went down struggled, they changed something and then bam he's hitting. The fact he just went down and crushed AAA pitching right away isn't a good sign in my book. It wasn't he needed more time to work on something, get himself right.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 15, 2021 12:05:48 GMT -5
I'm confused because he had basically two months in the majors. I'd actually feel better if he went down struggled, they changed something and then bam he's hitting. The fact he just went down and crushed AAA pitching right away isn't a good sign in my book. It wasn't he needed more time to work on something, get himself right. Except that he actually had been improving steadily in the majors before being sent down. His rolling 50 PA xwOBA had gone from .192 on May 12 to .320 on May 23, which is above the MLB average.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2021 12:09:03 GMT -5
I'm confused because he had basically two months in the majors. I'd actually feel better if he went down struggled, they changed something and then bam he's hitting. The fact he just went down and crushed AAA pitching right away isn't a good sign in my book. It wasn't he needed more time to work on something, get himself right. Well, you could make the case (as some have) that the transition happened not when he went down to AAA but a week before that: from 5/15 to 5/23 (15 PAs) he hit .333/.333/.733. That's pretty much the hitter he's been in Worcester.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 15, 2021 13:29:25 GMT -5
His first 9 games Cordero hit .348 with an .824 OPS, so how exactly did spring training hurt him? It seems everyone forgot that.
You can also look at his last games as he ran into two Angles pitchers who didn't have it and was lucky that Wheeler made a mistake in the 8th inning of a start.
I have zero doubts Cordero can make pitchers pay for mistakes. What he needs to prove is that he can hit good pitching on the regular. That's not happening in AAA.
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Post by soxinjersey on Jun 15, 2021 13:44:17 GMT -5
Right now, Cordero and Chavis are two players with significant strengths but also weaknesses that are threatening their careers. I imagine that they see the Sox as a huge opportunity that is slipping away from them, so they do what many athletes do: the more they want it, the harder they play, the more they expand the zone to chase everything -- and the worse they perform.
This is where I imagine Cora to be a terrific manager. He knows the Sox will send Cordero down, but he gives him a few final starts and an opportunity to make some plays, and he does, including a monster home run. Then he sits him down (my guess) and tells him the door is still open. (Parenthetically, many of the most important conversations coaches can have with athletes come when players have experienced failure, e.g. when they learn they will be playing JV, not varsity. The right words can sometimes transform a negative experience into a positive one in the long term. Again, this is how I imagine Cora as a manager.)
Even before going down to Worcester, something had started to click for Franchy, and, more important, I imagine that he left with a positive mind-set, so it's not surprising that his hot streak has continued in AAA and that he's earning another chance. Again, I hope he makes the most of it.
Before making trades moving forward, the Sox need to be sure to give the players they have the opportunity to succeed. For position players, the Sox IMO have all the pieces they need, but they will need help with pitching because of the injuries in AAA. That's where their trade pieces should go.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 15, 2021 13:46:57 GMT -5
His first 9 games Cordero hit .348 with an .824 OPS, so how exactly did spring training hurt him? It seems everyone forgot that. You can also look at his last games as he ran into two Angles pitchers who didn't have it and was lucky that Wheeler made a mistake in the 8th inning of a start. I have zero doubts Cordero can make pitchers pay for mistakes. What he needs to prove is that he can hit good pitching on the regular. That's not happening in AAA. His quality of contact kinda sucked his first 9 games, seemed like he was quite fortunate and that checks out with what I remember (IF hits, fly ball wall scrapers). He was also striking out a bunch
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sportshubby
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Post by sportshubby on Jun 15, 2021 13:59:35 GMT -5
It seems that there is little in-between on this forum regarding Franchy. That said, I think that is where I am at on him. I don't believe that he is going to turn into a regular all star, but I also belive he is better than what 90ish at bats over 50 games says he is. I think if he gets another shot to play, and play almost everyday, that he COULD outplay some of his teammates not batting 2-5. I don't know if he gets that shot, but he is easier to add than say Duran as Franchy is on the 40 already.
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Post by manfred on Jun 15, 2021 14:16:24 GMT -5
It seems that there is little in-between on this forum regarding Franchy. That said, I think that is where I am at on him. I don't believe that he is going to turn into a regular all star, but I also belive he is better than what 90ish at bats over 50 games says he is. I think if he gets another shot to play, and play almost everyday, that he COULD outplay some of his teammates not batting 2-5. I don't know if he gets that shot, but he is easier to add than say Duran as Franchy is on the 40 already. How about 129 games and 379 ABs? .222/.285/.393? That actually seems pretty reasonable to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2021 15:25:53 GMT -5
His first 9 games Cordero hit .348 with an .824 OPS, so how exactly did spring training hurt him? It seems everyone forgot that. You can also look at his last games as he ran into two Angles pitchers who didn't have it and was lucky that Wheeler made a mistake in the 8th inning of a start. I have zero doubts Cordero can make pitchers pay for mistakes. What he needs to prove is that he can hit good pitching on the regular. That's not happening in AAA. His quality of contact kinda sucked his first 9 games, seemed like he was quite fortunate and that checks out with what I remember (IF hits, fly ball wall scrapers). He was also striking out a bunch Yeah he was 8 for 23 with 2 doubles, 1 BB, 9 K, .571 BABIP He did have 6 100+ MPH exit velos during that time though.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 15, 2021 16:29:19 GMT -5
...which does bring up the question of how prepped he was for the season. He wasn't playing regularly either, so little chance to get into a rhythm. That was the strongest argument for sending him to AAA. There's no doubt he can crush the ball if he gets hold of it. He just wasn't doing all that much of it early on.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 15, 2021 17:25:25 GMT -5
Most of Franchy's RBI's early on were bouncers that scored runners an i believe even a bases loaded walk at one point. he was not making solid contact at all and wasn't taking a full solid swing because of poor timing and low confidence.
He did display much better contact and keeping within the zone before he was sent down and that has continued with Worcester with 5 homers and 14 RBI's and hitting just south of 400 at this time. I know that chavis was recalled, but he was feasting off many breaking pitches so we will see how it all plays out.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 15, 2021 20:14:19 GMT -5
It seems that there is little in-between on this forum regarding Franchy. That said, I think that is where I am at on him. I don't believe that he is going to turn into a regular all star, but I also belive he is better than what 90ish at bats over 50 games says he is. I think if he gets another shot to play, and play almost everyday, that he COULD outplay some of his teammates not batting 2-5. I don't know if he gets that shot, but he is easier to add than say Duran as Franchy is on the 40 already. How about 129 games and 379 ABs? .222/.285/.393? That actually seems pretty reasonable to me. Earlier in the season you'd referenced Renfroe's last 100+ games or so to make a similar point...
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