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Franchy Cordero, the enigma
jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 29, 2021 11:00:22 GMT -5
I did not remember until I looked it up that Franchy Cordero played over 1500 minor league innings as a not very good shortstop. Could he play 1b? Nothing about the way he plays LF suggests that he would be a great 1b, but if he can field ground balls and offer a big target it might be worth thinking about.
Seems to me that if Marwin and Santana never start hitting, somebody from the group Franchy, Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo should be playing 1b at least a couple of times a week and maybe more.
Duran
Verdugo
JD
Bogaerts
Devers
Renfroe
Vasquez
Arroyo/Hernandez
Franchy 2.0/Dalbec
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 29, 2021 11:18:08 GMT -5
Updated look at Franchy's season. Each pair of lines is expected, then actual. Through April 10, 17 PA
.209 / .209 / .312 = .221 xwOBA
.353 / .353 / .471 = .355 wOBA. Hit some balls in the right places.
April 11 to May 2, 45 PA
.078 / .161 / .090 = .132
.075 / .159 / .075 = .123. An incredibly bad run, on which everyone seems to have imprinted permanently.
At this point he's at .158 / .213 / .193, with a .188 wOBA and .157 xwOBA. A guy with a .406 OPS ... who had been lucky!
May 5 to May 12, 25 PA .232 / .308 / .313 = .292 .120 / .200 / .160 = .177 The thing is, the team had a .314 xwOBA in the games he played. And in a sample this size, lots of guys have good and bad luck. The team in particular had bad luck or karma: Name PA wOBA xwOBA
Gonzalez, Marwin 31 .345 .385
Bogaerts, Xander 28 .315 .368
Martinez, J.D. 31 .238 .345
Verdugo, Alex 28 .176 .304
Dalbec, Bobby 15 .326 .303
Cordero, Franchy 25 .177 .292
Renfroe, Hunter 25 .218 .279
Devers, Rafael 28 .395 .275
Vázquez, Christian 20 .221 .163
This is promising. .292 is subpar, but it's way better than .157. He's ahead of three teammates who are solid, very good, and on their way to legendary.
Six of his 15 balls in play were hit 100+. But he couldn't get his launch angle into a sweet spot; one was at 48 degrees and another was -19 and both were easy outs (.273 and .149 xBA). The other 4 were liners (5, 11, 11, 13 degrees) with 3.2 expected hits and 4.3 expected TB, and that's what he got, rounded down of course. But you can see that he's already .65 hits below expectations. His other 9 balls in play had 1.85 expected hits and he got 0. Cheap hits are a normal part of the game. But every one of Franchy's balls in play with <.500 xBA were outs, as was one with a .620, the one LD out. If he gets the 3 cheap hits he deserved, his slash lime goes up instead of further down. Everyone noticed the four line drives with an average EV of 105.8 (three on May 6, 1 on May 9). Maybe more people would have recognized them as a sign of progress if his numbers had improved. May 15 to May 23, 15 PA
.378 / .378 / .807 = .495
.333 / .333 / .733 = .447 The Sox bats were rocking in these 4 games , and in fact he had the 5th best wOBA of the 9 guys who played the most. But he was second in xwOBA: Name PA wOBA xwOBA
Bogaerts, Xander 12 .710 .590
Cordero, Franchy 15 .447 .495
Santana, Danny 7 .493 .477
Verdugo, Alex 10 .588 .442
Hernández, Enrique 14 .538 .405
Vázquez, Christian 12 .171 .388
Martinez, J.D. 14 .322 .363
Dalbec, Bobby 16 .280 .353
Devers, Rafael 17 .534 .340
Gonzalez, Marwin 13 .124 .255
Renfroe, Hunter 8 .087 .121
He was then sent down, where he's been the third best hitter in all of AAA.
More tomorrow: his AAA vs. MLB history according to Davenport Peak Translations (which so far show absolutely no AAAA effect), plate discipline, etc.
But I'll note now that he had only 206 PA in AAA before his 2017 rookie season with the Padres -- that's not a late-season call-up to reward his .972 OPS in AAA, it was late May to late June, and he killed AAA after he was sent back down. And in the three injury-plagued seasons between his mastering AAA and our trading for him, he had a 105 wRC+ in 216 PA in MLB.
So the whole "he's terrible because of his career MLB totals" (a/k/a the mandred Report) is bogus -- it includes a premature stint in MLB as a rookie, and a terrible stretch with us in which he was very likely trying to learn one or more changes to his swing and/or approach.
So… do those stretches not count? My position is not oracular. Maybe he’ll be a superstar. But a) he has been a bad player in the majors; b) he has been a good player in the minors. Both true. The overall pattern and age *suggest* he is working against the odds. It doesn’t mean failure is written in the stars. Look to the Swiss to see what an under 1% chance gets you… every once in while, you win. It doesn’t mean the odds were wrong. |
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Post by Guidas on Jun 29, 2021 11:22:24 GMT -5
Updated look at Franchy's season. Each pair of lines is expected, then actual. Through April 10, 17 PA
.209 / .209 / .312 = .221 xwOBA
.353 / .353 / .471 = .355 wOBA. Hit some balls in the right places.
April 11 to May 2, 45 PA
.078 / .161 / .090 = .132
.075 / .159 / .075 = .123. An incredibly bad run, on which everyone seems to have imprinted permanently.
At this point he's at .158 / .213 / .193, with a .188 wOBA and .157 xwOBA. A guy with a .406 OPS ... who had been lucky!
May 5 to May 12, 25 PA .232 / .308 / .313 = .292 .120 / .200 / .160 = .177 The thing is, the team had a .314 xwOBA in the games he played. And in a sample this size, lots of guys have good and bad luck. The team in particular had bad luck or karma: Name PA wOBA xwOBA
Gonzalez, Marwin 31 .345 .385
Bogaerts, Xander 28 .315 .368
Martinez, J.D. 31 .238 .345
Verdugo, Alex 28 .176 .304
Dalbec, Bobby 15 .326 .303
Cordero, Franchy 25 .177 .292
Renfroe, Hunter 25 .218 .279
Devers, Rafael 28 .395 .275
Vázquez, Christian 20 .221 .163
This is promising. .292 is subpar, but it's way better than .157. He's ahead of three teammates who are solid, very good, and on their way to legendary.
Six of his 15 balls in play were hit 100+. But he couldn't get his launch angle into a sweet spot; one was at 48 degrees and another was -19 and both were easy outs (.273 and .149 xBA). The other 4 were liners (5, 11, 11, 13 degrees) with 3.2 expected hits and 4.3 expected TB, and that's what he got, rounded down of course. But you can see that he's already .65 hits below expectations. His other 9 balls in play had 1.85 expected hits and he got 0. Cheap hits are a normal part of the game. But every one of Franchy's balls in play with <.500 xBA were outs, as was one with a .620, the one LD out. If he gets the 3 cheap hits he deserved, his slash lime goes up instead of further down. Everyone noticed the four line drives with an average EV of 105.8 (three on May 6, 1 on May 9). Maybe more people would have recognized them as a sign of progress if his numbers had improved. May 15 to May 23, 15 PA
.378 / .378 / .807 = .495
.333 / .333 / .733 = .447 The Sox bats were rocking in these 4 games , and in fact he had the 5th best wOBA of the 9 guys who played the most. But he was second in xwOBA: Name PA wOBA xwOBA
Bogaerts, Xander 12 .710 .590
Cordero, Franchy 15 .447 .495
Santana, Danny 7 .493 .477
Verdugo, Alex 10 .588 .442
Hernández, Enrique 14 .538 .405
Vázquez, Christian 12 .171 .388
Martinez, J.D. 14 .322 .363
Dalbec, Bobby 16 .280 .353
Devers, Rafael 17 .534 .340
Gonzalez, Marwin 13 .124 .255
Renfroe, Hunter 8 .087 .121
He was then sent down, where he's been the third best hitter in all of AAA.
More tomorrow: his AAA vs. MLB history according to Davenport Peak Translations (which so far show absolutely no AAAA effect), plate discipline, etc.
But I'll note now that he had only 206 PA in AAA before his 2017 rookie season with the Padres -- that's not a late-season call-up to reward his .972 OPS in AAA, it was late May to late June, and he killed AAA after he was sent back down. And in the three injury-plagued seasons between his mastering AAA and our trading for him, he had a 105 wRC+ in 216 PA in MLB. So the whole "he's terrible because of his career MLB totals" (a/k/a the mandred Report) is bogus -- it includes a premature stint in MLB as a rookie, and a terrible stretch with us in which he was very likely trying to learn one or more changes to his swing and/or approach.
So… do those stretches not count? My position is not oracular. Maybe he’ll be a superstar. But a) he has been a bad player in the majors; b) he has been a good player in the minors. Both true. The overall pattern and age *suggest* he is working against the odds. It doesn’t mean failure is written in the stars. Look to the Swiss to see what an under 1% chance gets you… every once in while, you win. It doesn’t mean the odds were wrong. At the very least, if he doesn't work out in Boston, he'll be big in Japan. |
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Post by incandenza on Jun 29, 2021 11:29:36 GMT -5
What I've said before is that he was basically a league-average hitter prior to this season, and that he's been *so* bad this season that I don't think we can make much of it beyond ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Like, no one could reasonably have predicted he'd hit .179/.228/.274. So whatever we've gotten is not a real reflecetion of his ability. (Very fair to say it should aadjust our estimation of his ability down, however.)
manfred, your take seems to be "Look, he's been really bad," and this fine-combing of the stats doesn't change that basic fact. But given the shrug emojish nature of his performance this season I think it's worth diving into.
I think eric's numbers should adjust us away from the view of Franchy as "total flop" to "guy who had a really awful slump." Now, that still isn't great, as having an awful slump is consistent with his not being very good. But it's also consistent with his not being a total lost cause, as is his AAA performance. I would think every reasonable person would at least be curious to see how he does if and when he gets called up again.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 29, 2021 11:58:21 GMT -5
What I've said before is that he was basically a league-average hitter prior to this season, and that he's been *so* bad this season that I don't think we can make much of it beyond ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Like, no one could reasonably have predicted he'd hit .179/.228/.274. So whatever we've gotten is not a real reflecetion of his ability. (Very fair to say it should aadjust our estimation of his ability down, however.) manfred, your take seems to be "Look, he's been really bad," and this fine-combing of the stats doesn't change that basic fact. But given the shrug emojish nature of his performance this season I think it's worth diving into. I think eric's numbers should adjust us away from the view of Franchy as "total flop" to "guy who had a really awful slump." Now, that still isn't great, as having an awful slump is consistent with his not being very good. But it's also consistent with his not being a total lost cause, as is his AAA performance. I would think every reasonable person would at least be curious to see how he does if and when he gets called up again. I'm not sure where manfred stands with Franchy being called up eventually - he no doubt will - just not in the time table of many on this board. Franchy faltered in the majors, and as we've seen with higher 'profile prospects' (Jarred Kalenic etc.), sending them back down to the minors is the prudent option - both for their confidence, but also to work on their mechanics/pitch recognition/plate discipline in a lower stress environment (i.e. without fans and media castigating their efforts). |
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jun 29, 2021 13:07:02 GMT -5
I’m fine with giving him another chance. But thr outfield has sort of gotten it together at the moment, so I do not love the idea of playing him ahead of any of the current 3, nor do I want to move kiké to 2nd and sit Arroyo when healthy.
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Post by fanofredsox on Jun 29, 2021 13:17:18 GMT -5
I think the team should keep Cordero in AAA, maybe call him back in September, & trade for an OF to play Left.
Acquisition, Verdugo, Renfroe With Kiki in a super utility role, Arroyo at 2B
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 29, 2021 13:42:18 GMT -5
I would take Kiké' over Verdugo in CF from what i have seen. Bringing up Franchy now would just complicate positions. I like Verdugo in left and Renfro in right and (if he can avoid the damn injuries) Arroyo at 2nd. that would be my ideal set-up.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 29, 2021 13:44:39 GMT -5
I was hoping in the offseason that they would have signed Marcus Semien. Now i really wish they did. that would have been an awesome leadoff hitter.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 29, 2021 14:16:17 GMT -5
I was hoping in the offseason that they would have signed Marcus Semien. Now i really wish they did. that would have been an awesome leadoff hitter. Semien would be good but too expensive. Kolten Wong signed a 2 year 18M deal that would have been an ideal fit under the CBT tax threshold (instead of Garrett Richards) - but hindsight it truly 20/20. Wong's slash line is currently: .294 BA .349 OBP .490 SLG .360 wOBA With 1.7 WAR and above average defense 🤷🏾 |
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,963
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Post by jimoh on Jun 29, 2021 14:16:53 GMT -5
I was hoping in the offseason that they would have signed. Now i really wish they did. that would have been an awesome leadoff hitter. I'd like to have him next year! (When we have more cap room). Ideally after a deadline trade to someone else this year so that you don't lose a draft pick. |
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 29, 2021 15:35:12 GMT -5
Was he a Qualified Offer free agent? I wasn't sure how much he signed for with the Blue Jays, but I knew he could be a good pickup for the Sox.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 29, 2021 15:42:50 GMT -5
Was he a Qualified Offer free agent? I wasn't sure how much he signed for with the Blue Jays, but I knew he could be a good pickup for the Sox. Without looking it up I remember it being a lot higher than expected. I think the thought here was that he could be gotten for about $8 - $10 million but instead signed a one year deal for $18 million, which was surprising at the time, given that he has been average all of his career up to that point with the exception of a great 2019. |
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,207
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Post by radiohix on Jun 29, 2021 15:59:16 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 13,873
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Post by cdj on Jun 29, 2021 16:04:31 GMT -5
Very, very interesting
He was originally a SS…
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 29, 2021 16:07:21 GMT -5
BIG fan of this. Makes so much sense.
It wouldn't be giving up on Dalbec as a full-time first baseman necessarily, but having him more-or-less platoon with Franchy for the rest of this season fixes a huge hole in the lineup - presuming Cordero hits - against RHP. Cordero also becomes your 4th OF and when Arroyo comes back, voila, no more Santana.
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Post by vokuhila on Jun 29, 2021 16:07:58 GMT -5
uhhhhh that's juicy..i don't think anyone expected that. Either they are putting him on the utility route, or they think duran blocks his 4th OF spot so they put him on the weakest MLB position.
Was this why they delayed his callup?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 29, 2021 16:15:16 GMT -5
So that might explain why Franchy didn't get called up and Chavis got the call instead?
If they believe in his bat and think he can handle 1b, then this might prevent them from having to trade for a LH 1b who can also play the outfield, especially if the goal is to stay quiet at the trade deadline and keep from going over the luxury tax limit (although I don't know why they'd be hellbent to stay under this season given their circumstances).
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 29, 2021 16:52:06 GMT -5
I did not remember until I looked it up that Franchy Cordero played over 1500 minor league innings as a not very good shortstop. Could he play 1b? Nothing about the way he plays LF suggests that he would be a great 1b, but if he can field ground balls and offer a big target it might be worth thinking about. Seems to me that if Marwin and Santana never start hitting, somebody from the group Franchy, Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo should be playing 1b at least a couple of times a week and maybe more. Duran Verdugo JD Bogaerts Devers Renfroe Vasquez Arroyo/Hernandez Franchy 2.0/Dalbec Why yes I did suggest (or at least ask about) Franchy at 1b five hours ago. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 29, 2021 16:54:13 GMT -5
I honestly believe they're going to stick to the model they've been following, looking for under-valued players who have decent offensive and defensive skills and can play multiple positions. It's the Belichikian thing to do! Arroyo, Renfroe, and Hernandez all have that profile. In that light, it's not surprising they're looking to expand Cordero's skillset. Hatfield's master plan would seem to fit into that.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 29, 2021 16:55:04 GMT -5
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Post by jbsox on Jun 29, 2021 16:56:24 GMT -5
Yes! I was saying they explore this option in the Sox Yankees series thread. Happy they are doing this.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 30, 2021 2:49:18 GMT -5
I honestly believe they're going to stick to the model they've been following, looking for under-valued players who have decent offensive and defensive skills and can play multiple positions. It's the Belichikian to do! Arroyo, Renfroe, and Hernandez all have that profile. In that light, it's not surprising they're looking to expand Cordero's skillset. Hatfield's master plan would seem to fit into that. Hatfield's master plan ? Multiple posters have been suggesting that in multiple places for quite a while now. Hatfield is good and obviously knowledgeable but really doesn't need credit for things that are not his ideas. Dalbec/Chavis/Santana are the worst 1B combo in baseball and the Sox biggest hole. A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link. |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 30, 2021 3:29:13 GMT -5
Obviously I adore this, but there's something else that's not obvious.
He has passed the hitting exam, if you get my meaning. He was asked to learn / show he could do certain things at the plate, and he has.
Because you never, never ask a player to learn or work on two very different things at once. Given his SS experience, learning to play an adequate 1B should not be a long process.
This doesn't mean a strict platoon with Dalbec. On any given day vs. a RHP, three of Franchy, Dalbec, Kiké, and Arroyo play, and you can even start all four and sit Renfroe. When Durran arrives, it's 6 players for four positions. Nearly as much flexibility as they have now.
A further upshot: if Franchy succeeds in this role, this makes it much easier to make room for Durran by trading Marwin, as opposed to going to 13 pitchers. The two non-catchers on the bench right now are Marwin and Santana. In the new regime, it's Franchy (or Dalbec) and Kiké (or Arroyo). Given the strength of the two extra players, it would be hard to find PT for a third.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 30, 2021 6:54:36 GMT -5
Obviously I adore this, but there's something else that's not obvious.
He has passed the hitting exam, if you get my meaning. He was asked to learn / show he could do certain things at the plate, and he has.
Because you never, never ask a player to learn or work on two very different things at once. Given his SS experience, learning to play an adequate 1B should not be a long process.
This doesn't mean a strict platoon with Dalbec. On any given day vs. a RHP, three of Franchy, Dalbec, Kiké, and Arroyo play, and you can even start all four and sit Renfroe. When Durran arrives, it's 6 players for four positions. Nearly as much flexibility as they have now.
A further upshot: if Franchy succeeds in this role, this makes it much easier to make room for Durran by trading Marwin, as opposed to going to 13 pitchers. The two non-catchers on the bench right now are Marwin and Santana. In the new regime, it's Franchy (or Dalbec) and Kiké (or Arroyo). Given the strength of the two extra players, it would be hard to find PT for a third.
Thanks for this. I had thought of the premise (can't ask a struggling hitter to learn 1b) but not the smart conclusion. Having Duran (I don't think the joke misspelling is worth it) and Franchy on the 25 [oops, the 26] would mean a lean backup situation for middle-infield and 3b. You'd see occasional appearances of Dalbec at 3rd or Vazquez or Wong at 2nd. Nothing wrong with giving JD, Renfroe, and Verdugo an occasional day off. Is a trade of Marwin actually possible? Would anyone want him? Would we have to pay his salary? |
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