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Trade deadline (2021): thoughts/strategy/predictions
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 2, 2021 6:15:10 GMT -5
I’m curious what people think about this coming trade deadline. I find it a fascinating situation Bloom is in. He clearly had a plan when he took over to rebuild the farm, preserve assets and get the payroll into a manageable spot. He continued that this offseason, by not spending any long term money and keeping the payroll below the tax. There is no part of me that think he planned to be in this position where adding (big?) to the major league team was on his plate. I’m not saying he’s upset about being on pace to win over 100 games, but I think his world is kind of flipped on its head right now. This couldn’t have been in his long term plans on how to rebuild this franchise. So what do we think he does?
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Post by jbsox on Jul 2, 2021 6:50:30 GMT -5
I’m not sure we’ll do prospects for holes type of trade as the reinforcements may be in house. Sale and Houck (or relief) for starting pitching, maybe Braiser and Ort for RP, Cordero possibly a left handed hitting 1B, and Duran in the wings. It’s hard for me to see a spot where we would trade for an upgrade.
Maybe we’ll loosen up the back end of the 40 man roster like trading Wilson for a younger prospect.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 2, 2021 6:50:34 GMT -5
I didn't think that they'd be in a position to buy going into the season. I figured 1-2 pieces should be good. I was thinking about either a 1B and/or a starter, making halfway decent money. Players that jump to mind are Aguilar and Gibson. We may end up wanting a reliever and may be able to save on one of the other two spots depending on how Sale or prospects develop. We should also be in a great position to increase our prospect capital via the draft. Unfortunately there aren't too many options that jump out that are making decent money on objectively terrible teams. Asdrubal Cabrera? I assume that we're not getting Eduardo Escobar. Heck, I'd have loved to trade for Carlos Santana prior to this series so that we didn't have to face him.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 2, 2021 6:52:21 GMT -5
Our FO seems to like those behind the headlines 40 man roster crunch trades. I'd love to pick up some IFA capital or trade some people on our 40 man that we might lose to rule 5 to any team willing to trade prospects (like we did earlier with Tampa)
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 2, 2021 6:58:59 GMT -5
I find the Sox situation absolutely fascinating, for the reasons stated. I'm going to play captain obvious here and point out the three options the Sox have:
Trade to improve the team this year. Trade to improve the team next year. stay pat and do nothing.
What we should or could do, is also contingent on what's available. If the first option is the direction Bloom goes in then the question becomes how we improve the team. Do we trade valuable assets to fill in the gaps for this year? or do we up the ante, sweeten the pot, spend the extra currency and make decisions that not only help the team this year but improve the team for the next 2-3 years.
I think Bloom has been forced into a position where he has to improve this team to make a run. I too am intrigued to see what direction he goes in, but I certainly don't think I'm smart enough to start speculating what type of moves we make but I will throw a nickel into the hat anyways. The one thing I'd like to see on this team is a true Ace, the rotation has been a strength for this team, but that strength has been in its depth, and rolling out 5 strong starters all week (year Richards has been sucky lately). But in a short series, I'm afraid of what happens when we don't have that one Bonafide ace to throw out for two games. In a perfect world, Chris Sale comes back and you can ramp him up just enough (and you have to hope the stuff comes back in time) so Chris Sale can be Chris Sale going into October. I don't knwo how realistic that is.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Jul 2, 2021 6:59:18 GMT -5
I think he can have it both ways. Sale, Houck, Ort and hopefully Seabold could be nice additions for pitching. Maybe Duran transitions to the big leagues with ease. My guess is he holds flips guys who are 40 man eligible this winter, I guess like the Bedard trade.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 2, 2021 7:05:10 GMT -5
Additional thoughts. There are plausible in-house solutions to improve this team, but nothing is certain. Chris Sale is coming back to this team, is it out of the question that they ramp him up slowly, and he becomes healthy and strong just in time, with little mileage to roll him out for a playoff run? I think so, but that's a gamble.
Is it plausible that Duran comes up and smashes expectations and adds real value to this lineup? of course, it is, but he could come up to the bigs and struggle too.
The biggest strength of this team is its bullpen, in today's game a strong bullpen is worth much more than it was 20 years ago. Is that enough for a playoff run? maybe, but if a few guys get hurt or take a step back that could drastically change things.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 2, 2021 7:08:08 GMT -5
I have been wondering the same thing. I can't really see a clear path for Bloom.
The outfield seems kind of set, with Verdugo/Kiké/Renfroe + Cordero/Duran lurking. Left side of the infield is set. C is set with Wong as a decent 3rd catcher 2B Arroyo is on the way back, multiple backups 1B you could trade for Aguilar or Cron, but how much of an upgrade over a Dalbec/Cordero platoon would that actually be?
Rotation down the line could be Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Perez. With Richards and Seabold as insurance. A trade for a good bullpen arm is likely...but that's the case for every contender. Ian Kennedy comes to mind.
The problem is, that almost all positions have at least decent players. If you wanted to improve drastically, you would have to go for someone big...which seems unlikely, because they don't want to spend money or players.
Bloom is looking to make the team better long term, i think he will do exactly that at the deadline. Maybe trade for someone that fit's in long term, not just a rental.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 2, 2021 9:04:05 GMT -5
I’m curious what people think about this coming trade deadline. I find it a fascinating situation Bloom is in. He clearly had a plan when he took over to rebuild the farm, preserve assets, compete, and get the payroll into a manageable spot. He continued that this offseason, by not spending any long term money and keeping the payroll below the tax. There is no part of me that think he planned to be in this position where adding (big?) to the major league team was on his plate. I’m not saying he’s upset about being on pace to win over 100 games, but I think his world is kind of flipped on its head right now. This couldn’t have been in his long term plans on how to rebuild this franchise. So what do we think he does? You forgot something. He's checked off everyone of those to date. He also might have quite a few in-house tricks up his sleeve. Check out gerry's post in the gameday thread.
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Post by cheers on Jul 2, 2021 9:04:41 GMT -5
To me, it all hinges on what the FO thinks they are gonna get out of Sale in September.
1) If they think he is CHRIS SALE, then the Sox have a very real shot at a ring, and you pick up a rental #2 and LH 1B. 2) If they think he is a bullpen piece, you hope for the best and let it roll the way it is - been working out really well so far. However, as built ALCS is the ceiling IMO.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 2, 2021 10:17:34 GMT -5
Our FO seems to like those behind the headlines 40 man roster crunch trades. I'd love to pick up some IFA capital or trade some people on our 40 man that we might lose to rule 5 to any team willing to trade prospects (like we did earlier with Tampa) I believe you can't trade for international free agency money any more.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 2, 2021 10:24:06 GMT -5
Agreed with the sentiment around back of the 40 trades. Marcus Wilson and Chavis seem like good candidates to move for a lottery ticket or another solid reliever, both in my opinion could use prolonged MLB time, but don't have a clear opportunity coming for that in Boston. At the same time I'd understand if the team would prefer to keep them as super-depth than Santana or Marwin, although those guys are clearly more versatile and would also be less likely to return anything.
I'm not sure what bigger moves make sense, it goes without saying if they could somehow get a great deal on a guy like Ketel Marte that improves the team in the short and long run and allows them to stay under the tax do it, but pretty unlikely there's something like that just sitting out there.
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Post by malynn19 on Jul 2, 2021 10:35:22 GMT -5
I don't know what pitchers are out there, but Sale and Houck are definitely an improvement over most of the starters we currently have.
I also don't know if we have enough without giving up more than 2 from our top 3, but I believe Joey Gallo is the perfect player for this team. (Ketel Marte has been linked with the Sox and despite being the same age, I think he would cost more.) Gallo can play both infield corner positions and all the outfield positions and he gets on base. A lineup with Dugie, X, JD, Raffy, Gallo, and Renfroe in it looks terrifying.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 2, 2021 10:55:19 GMT -5
I have said this more than once. Kyle Gibson is out there and the Sox should do what it takes to get him. Add a top of the line starter to this team and they are a lot closer to being a WS winner!!! That is the bottom line PERIOD!!!
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 2, 2021 10:58:29 GMT -5
Gallo would fit, but he also has substantial trade value. www.baseballtradevalues.com calculates trade value based on "on field production" and contract. It's a fun site to play around with. They have Gallo's value at 37. Red Sox prospects: Casas 47 Duran 44 Downs 27 I don't think the RS are willing to give up what Texas will be asking.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 2, 2021 11:33:47 GMT -5
I’m curious what people think about this coming trade deadline. I find it a fascinating situation Bloom is in. He clearly had a plan when he took over to rebuild the farm, preserve assets, compete, and get the payroll into a manageable spot. He continued that this offseason, by not spending any long term money and keeping the payroll below the tax. There is no part of me that think he planned to be in this position where adding (big?) to the major league team was on his plate. I’m not saying he’s upset about being on pace to win over 100 games, but I think his world is kind of flipped on its head right now. This couldn’t have been in his long term plans on how to rebuild this franchise. So what do we think he does? You forgot something. He's checked off everyone of those to date. He also might have quite a few in-house tricks up his sleeve. Check out gerry's post in the gameday thread. I don’t think he has rebuilt the system the way he has planned. It’s better but it’s not strong at the top or as deep as he wants or needs it to be.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 2, 2021 11:38:07 GMT -5
I have said this more than once. Kyle Gibson is out there and the Sox should do what it takes to get him. Add a top of the line starter to this team and they are a lot closer to being a WS winner!!! That is the bottom line PERIOD!!! Trading for Kyle Gibson like he’s a top of the line starter is likely a big mistake. Having a career year at 33, I’ll pass, assuming it’s a big price tag.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2021 12:20:15 GMT -5
Short version: they have no needs to fill, but you know that they have lists of guys they think are better than anyone else realizes (call it "The Renfroe-Pivetta Report") that could be acquired to make the team better.
Starting Pitching
You can win the WS if Chris Sale returns as an ace. If he returns as something lesser, it's much less likely. You probably won't know this by the trade deadline. since his first few starts are usually not pure Sale.
By all available meaningful metrics (xwOBA allowed, bWAR, WPA), Eovaldi has been a 2 starter and Pivetta has been a 3. E-Rod has historically been a #2 starter and has the xwOBA of a #2 but has gotten #5 starter results. That's why he has an enigma thread.
You could absolutely stand pat, and by the time of the deadline you hopefully have good thoughts about E-Rod.
There's one trade that does make sense. Martin Perez has been a 5th starter by xwOBA, but a 3rd starter by results. You could swap him for a guy with similar or somewhat better results that we think has immediate #2 upside. At the same time, you clear space on the upcoming Rule 5 40-man by trading N guys you're secretly low on for K guys who are not yet rule-5 eligible and are better than their own team thinks. The MLB side of the deal looks like a modest improvement but is really a much bigger one, and is insurance against renewed E-Rod struggles, or an Eovaldi injury. The prospect side looks like a compensating downgrade, but is actually also a win. Classic Bloom deal.
Bullpen
They have stupid depth. I think Yacksel Rios is going to be a 7th high-leverage guy. At AAA they'll have Brasier, Valdez (who has been great there except for one terrible outing that ruins his numbers), Ort, and Bazardo as possible high-lev guys. No need to do anything, except maybe move Andriese to make room for the best of the aforementioned.
Position players
Unless there's a major injury, trade Santana and Marwin to make room for Franchy and Duran. If Franchy can't play 1B, that complicates things a lot.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 2, 2021 12:27:18 GMT -5
I have said this more than once. Kyle Gibson is out there and the Sox should do what it takes to get him. Add a top of the line starter to this team and they are a lot closer to being a WS winner!!! That is the bottom line PERIOD!!! Trading for Kyle Gibson like he’s a top of the line starter is likely a big mistake. Having a career year at 33, I’ll pass, assuming it’s a big price tag. Yeah, just look at Gibson's HR/FB rate so far this year compared to his career numbers. His LOB% and BABIP against scream unsustainable luck too, but he's been a good pitcher for sure. I don't think GM's trade based on ERA in the year 2021, and given his age and track record his cost could be somewhat reasonable, but many teams project to need a starter so given the Red Sox needs I doubt they splurge on Gibson.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on Jul 2, 2021 12:27:29 GMT -5
I have said this more than once. Kyle Gibson is out there and the Sox should do what it takes to get him. Add a top of the line starter to this team and they are a lot closer to being a WS winner!!! That is the bottom line PERIOD!!! Trading for Kyle Gibson like he’s a top of the line starter is likely a big mistake. Having a career year at 33, I’ll pass, assuming it’s a big price tag. This. Kyle Gibson's career BABIP: .305 Kyle Gibson's 2021 BABIP: .240 Career LOB%: 71.4% 2021 LOB%: 85.1% He'll implode big time in the 2nd half, I have no doubts about that. I think this team needs some little upgrades in the starting rotation and bullpen (I wish we signed Collin McHugh instead of Andriese) and maybe an OBP type 1st baseman (Carlos Santana would be my preference) and that's it. Should they go to the trade market? Not necessarily, internal upgrades should take care of the rotation and the relief corp (Chris Sale even at 60% is 10 times better than Gibson) Houck and Brasier would dominate right handed heavy AL East lineups from the bullpen. If I was CB, I'd call Dayton Moore and see if he's willing to take someone like Potts/Rosario/Wilson types for Santana and if he's asking for more I'll hang up. No need to waste ressources imho Playoffs, after all, are a crapshoot.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2021 12:37:10 GMT -5
Short version: they have no needs to fill, but you know that they have lists of guys they think are better than anyone else realizes (call it "The Renfroe-Pivetta Report") that could be acquired to make the team better.
Starting Pitching
You can win the WS if Chris Sale returns as an ace. If he returns as something lesser, it's much less likely. You probably won't know this by the trade deadline. since his first few starts are usually not pure Sale.
By all available meaningful metrics (xwOBA allowed, bWAR, WPA), Eovaldi has been a 2 starter and Pivetta has been a 3. E-Rod has historically been a #2 starter and has the xwOBA of a #2 but has gotten #5 starter results. That's why he has an enigma thread.
You could absolutely stand pat, and by the time of the deadline you hopefully have good thoughts about E-Rod.
There's one trade that does make sense. Martin Perez has been a 5th starter by xwOBA, but a 3rd starter by results. You could swap him for a guy with similar or somewhat better results that we think has immediate #2 upside. At the same time, you clear space on the upcoming Rule 5 40-man by trading N guys you're secretly low on for K guys who are not yet rule-5 eligible and are better than their own team thinks. The MLB side of the deal looks like a modest improvement but is really a much bigger one, and is insurance against renewed E-Rod struggles, or an Eovaldi injury. The prospect side looks like a compensating downgrade, but is actually also a win. Classic Bloom deal.
Bullpen
They have stupid depth. I think Yacksel Rios is going to be a 7th high-leverage guy. At AAA they'll have Brasier, Valdez (who has been great there except for one terrible outing that ruins his numbers), Ort, and Bazardo as possible high-lev guys. No need to do anything, except maybe move Andriese to make room for the best of the aforementioned.
Position players
Unless there's a major injury, trade Santana and Marwin to make room for Franchy and Duran. If Franchy can't play 1B, that complicates things a lot.
Agree with most of this, but I doubt they let go of Marwin. He's too important as insurance - what if Bogaerts or Devers get hurt?
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Post by jdb on Jul 2, 2021 13:01:11 GMT -5
I think we go over the cap and wouldn’t mind guys like Charlie Morton who’s on a one year deal or Carlos Santana. Santana could add insurance if we can’t keep JDM next year or with the NL likely getting a DH could be dealt. I think some of the 2B names that will be on the market would cost Downs. Guessing rumors would have Frazier in Pitt and Merrifield in KC out there.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,376
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Post by cdj on Jul 2, 2021 13:09:36 GMT -5
I don’t see them going over the threshold, they’re gonna go way over when they do.
They’ll probably get a reliever. Maybe a rental/cheap 1B if Franchy/Dalbec aren’t cutting it
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 2, 2021 13:20:35 GMT -5
Short version: they have no needs to fill, but you know that they have lists of guys they think are better than anyone else realizes (call it "The Renfroe-Pivetta Report") that could be acquired to make the team better.
Starting Pitching
You can win the WS if Chris Sale returns as an ace. If he returns as something lesser, it's much less likely. You probably won't know this by the trade deadline. since his first few starts are usually not pure Sale.
By all available meaningful metrics (xwOBA allowed, bWAR, WPA), Eovaldi has been a 2 starter and Pivetta has been a 3. E-Rod has historically been a #2 starter and has the xwOBA of a #2 but has gotten #5 starter results. That's why he has an enigma thread.
You could absolutely stand pat, and by the time of the deadline you hopefully have good thoughts about E-Rod.
There's one trade that does make sense. Martin Perez has been a 5th starter by xwOBA, but a 3rd starter by results. You could swap him for a guy with similar or somewhat better results that we think has immediate #2 upside. At the same time, you clear space on the upcoming Rule 5 40-man by trading N guys you're secretly low on for K guys who are not yet rule-5 eligible and are better than their own team thinks. The MLB side of the deal looks like a modest improvement but is really a much bigger one, and is insurance against renewed E-Rod struggles, or an Eovaldi injury. The prospect side looks like a compensating downgrade, but is actually also a win. Classic Bloom deal.
Bullpen
They have stupid depth. I think Yacksel Rios is going to be a 7th high-leverage guy. At AAA they'll have Brasier, Valdez (who has been great there except for one terrible outing that ruins his numbers), Ort, and Bazardo as possible high-lev guys. No need to do anything, except maybe move Andriese to make room for the best of the aforementioned.
Position players
Unless there's a major injury, trade Santana and Marwin to make room for Franchy and Duran. If Franchy can't play 1B, that complicates things a lot.
Agree with most of this, but I doubt they let go of Marwin. He's too important as insurance - what if Bogaerts or Devers get hurt? It wouldn't take much to believe Kiké and/or Arauz could contribute at least at the same level as Marwin (Hernandez's regular spot being taken by Arroyo/Franchy/Duran). Having said that, doesn't seem to be Bloom's MO to get thin on depth, and Marwin wouldn't actually fetch anything, so who knows.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 2, 2021 13:21:11 GMT -5
I think we go over the cap and wouldn’t mind guys like Charlie Morton who’s on a one year deal or Carlos Santana. Santana could add insurance if we can’t keep JDM next year or with the NL likely getting a DH could be dealt. I think some of the 2B names that will be on the market would cost Downs. Guessing rumors would have Frazier in Pitt and Merrifield in KC out there. I don't think they go over the cap. I don't believe Bloom was brought in to have that happen. Ownership across MLB likely wants to present a unified stance as the CBA negotiations kick in. Blowing through the cap doesn't fit into that scenario. That would be like showing up at a soup kitchen with a 2 lb. steak. Bad optics. Eric's take on acquisitions makes sense. Value-added seemed to be the name of Bloom's game.
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