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Post by jdb on Jul 2, 2021 13:36:22 GMT -5
According to Red Sox payroll we’re over by $500K. If we don’t go over the only way we can add is trading a Richards, Erod type.
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 2, 2021 14:22:46 GMT -5
• We don’t go over the cap • Make a Steve Pearce esque acquisition at 1B • Some shuffling around the margins / potential Rule 5 casualties • Maybe some small moves for “Renfroe Pivetta list” guys as Eric put it • I’ll throw a 40% chance on Richards getting dealt
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Post by costpet on Jul 2, 2021 14:43:39 GMT -5
It would be okay with me if they did nothing. They have plenty of pieces in the minors like Franchi, Duran, and Houlk, plus Sale coming back to take Richard’s place. They also have Ort to help the BP. I like the team as is.
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Post by dcb26 on Jul 2, 2021 14:58:23 GMT -5
I disagree with the idea that the Sox success has come as a complete surprise to Bloom and the FO or that they are caught off guard by potentially being buyers. There were plenty of reasons to believe this year's team could compete for a playoff spot, and nothing Bloom said indicated otherwise to me.
I doubt they expected the Sox record to be *this* good, but if anything I think that takes away some of the pressure to make a move ("if it ain't broke...") compared to a sitiuation where they're a little bit back but in contention for a wild card.
Not saying they shouldn't make a move, I'm skeptical that they can maintain the pace they're on right now or that this is a 100-win team. As plenty of others have noted though, its tough to see an obvious need/trade - I don't think they need to be (or will feel) forced into doing something major.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 2, 2021 15:18:44 GMT -5
I don't think the Sox are too active. If they make a deal it's either because it's a short term steal or a deal that helps now and later although that's more costly.
I figure if they're going to test out Franchy at 1b the news to do it quickly so they can see if he can be a viable 1b. If he can't be then they trade for a LH 1b bat, someone who ideally could play the OF if possible.
Right now I honestly think they don't have the starting pitching to beat Houston in a postseason series.
They have to see if Sale can be close to what he was. That would take pressure off Bloom to have to acquire a starter.
Unless it's an under the radar steal I don't see them getting a reliever. Cora has verified what I suspected on that Houck will be used similarly to how Whitlock is being used.
I also do not see the Sox trading for a lead off hitter/outfielder. I do believe that once the Olympics are over they will call up Duran. Even if he doesn't set the world on fire he should be able to get on base at a reasonable clip, show off his legit power as I believe his power does play beyond Polar Park and he has the speed and athleticism that nobody on the team has, something that really can show itself off in a league where nobody runs as they all wait for the 3 run HR.
They also have Arroyo coming back soon and the possibility of adding Brasier to the pen.
There's not a lot they have to do other than hoping the real Chris Sale is back and hope that E-Rod can pitch closer to his FIP.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 2, 2021 15:32:05 GMT -5
I don't think the Sox are too active. If they make a deal it's either because it's a short term steal or a deal that helps now and later although that's more costly. I figure if they're going to test out Franchy at 1b the news to do it quickly so they can see if he can be a viable 1b. If he can't be then they trade for a LH 1b bat, someone who ideally could play the OF if possible. Right now I honestly think they don't have the starting pitching to beat Houston in a postseason series. They have to see if Sale can be close to what he was. That would take pressure off Bloom to have to acquire a starter. Unless it's an under the radar steal I don't see them getting a reliever. Cora has verified what I suspected on that Houck will be used similarly to how Whitlock is being used. I also do not see the Sox trading for a lead off hitter/outfielder. I do believe that once the Olympics are over they will call up Duran. Even if he doesn't set the world on fire he should be able to get on base at a reasonable clip, show off his legit power as I believe his power does play beyond Polar Park and he has the speed and athleticism that nobody on the team has, something that really can show itself off in a league where nobody runs as they all wait for the 3 run HR. They also have Arroyo coming back soon and the possibility of adding Brasier to the pen. There's not a lot they have to do other than hoping the real Chris Sale is back and hope that E-Rod can pitch closer to his FIP. Apparently Duran won't be on the Olympic roster so maybe he will get a look for a couple of weeks prior to the deadline to see if he's overmatched and should look outside the organization.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 2, 2021 16:25:13 GMT -5
Yeah I've come around as well on thinking they'll go over. It probably doesn't make sense to go over unless you're going to blow past it and do so the whole season. The uncertainty of how it'll work in the next CBA adds to that.
As some have said, the only areas that might make sense to add are 1B if Franchbert Daldero doesn't work out in the next month and probably a reliever. I can't see them trading for a starting pitcher unless it's clear that Richards is toast and they're not comfortable rolling with Houck.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 2, 2021 16:30:12 GMT -5
According to Red Sox payroll we’re over by $500K. If we don’t go over the only way we can add is trading a Richards, Erod type. Cot's has them $5M under. I don't have time to figure out where that difference comes from but if someone else does, have at it!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 2, 2021 16:45:39 GMT -5
It's good to remember that they have time to modify their payroll numbers before the final tally. In all likelihood, that's what will happen if their intent is to stay under.
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 2, 2021 16:59:50 GMT -5
I think Eric's idea of trading someone like Martin Perez plus prospects to upgrade the rotation is a potentially good way to improve the roster, especially with his history of 2nd half declines.
Whether as add-ons to something along those lines or in separate deals for non-4o man lottery tickets, I could see one or many of these names moved:
Michael Chavis Jonathan Arauz Marcus Wilson Phillips Valdez Hudson Potts Jeisson Rosario Kaleb Ort (R5 eligible) Aaron Perry (R5 eligible) Cedanne Rafaela (R5 eligible) Thad Ward (R5 eligible)
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Post by Jimmy on Jul 2, 2021 18:57:47 GMT -5
I think Eric's idea of trading someone like Martin Perez plus prospects to upgrade the rotation is a potentially good way to improve the roster, especially with his history of 2nd half declines. Whether as add-ons to something along those lines or in separate deals for non-4o man lottery tickets, I could see one or many of these names moved: Michael Chavis Jonathan Arauz Marcus Wilson Phillips Valdez Hudson Potts Jeisson Rosario Kaleb Ort (R5 eligible) Aaron Perry (R5 eligible) Cedanne Rafaela (R5 eligible) Thad Ward (R5 eligible) I don’t agree that they’ll upgrade Perez (combination fo not wanting to give up the prospects to upgrade and that he’s been pretty solid this season), but I do for the most part agree with your list of likely trade chips (excluding Thad Ward). I could see these guys getting moved in Steve Peace type deals. In particular I could see Chavis being moved. Pretty redundant considering the versatility they have in the infield. He’s shown enough to have some trade value but not enough to stick with a contender IMO.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 2, 2021 19:33:49 GMT -5
I have said this more than once. Kyle Gibson is out there and the Sox should do what it takes to get him. Add a top of the line starter to this team and they are a lot closer to being a WS winner!!! That is the bottom line PERIOD!!! Trading for Kyle Gibson like he’s a top of the line starter is likely a big mistake. Having a career year at 33, I’ll pass, assuming it’s a big price tag. The fact that he is having a career year at 33 means his price should be a lot less than a typical top of the line starter. So yes, assuming it isn't too big a price tag, it all depends on the cost. He will be moved so we will see the price one way or another. Doesn't pitching mean more than anything else in the post season?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 2, 2021 19:57:58 GMT -5
Gibson would be great but he may be the prize of the trading deadline in terms of starters and I'm not sure they have the ability to get him without it really hurting. Casas and Duran I'm sure are non-starters. Would they trade downs for him? I sure hope not. Past that you're looking at Jimenez, bello or just a volume of guys from the 5-20 range.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 3, 2021 6:38:41 GMT -5
Trading for Kyle Gibson like he’s a top of the line starter is likely a big mistake. Having a career year at 33, I’ll pass, assuming it’s a big price tag. The fact that he is having a career year at 33 means his price should be a lot less than a typical top of the line starter. So yes, assuming it isn't too big a price tag, it all depends on the cost. He will be moved so we will see the price one way or another. Doesn't pitching mean more than anything else in the post season? Yes, it means more in the post season and if we are being honest, there’s a legit chance he wouldn’t even make the Sox post season rotation. Possible rotation: Sale Eovaldi Pivetta ERod Are all legitimate possibilities to be better than him. It’d be one thing if he were a power pitcher. It’d be another if he had a track record of any real sustained success. He’s got neither. Anyways, that’s all I’ve got to say about him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 7:01:05 GMT -5
I have said this more than once. Kyle Gibson is out there and the Sox should do what it takes to get him. Add a top of the line starter to this team and they are a lot closer to being a WS winner!!! That is the bottom line PERIOD!!! Ok, so maybe this is a bit over the top in regards to Gibson, a little too emphatic with the whole "PERIOD" thing, my bad. I like him based on a 6 pitch mix that he has been using to keep batters off balance ever since his 2nd start of the season, he got shelled his 1st game which makes his #s all the more impressive. A good read here, and since this was quite a while ago it shows he has maintained his dominance for 3 months now. His salary is very reasonable and goes thru next year, which is perfect for a guy like him as far as the Sox go. His contract is one of the reasons why I consider him to be a very good addition. The Sox are deep at 2nd and CF in the minors so I would be willing to highlight a deal with someone from that depth. Hear is a good read, there is a paywall but IMO the Athletic is very much worth the cost. theathletic.com/2575463/2021/05/10/kyle-gibsons-newest-pitch-is-good-and-his-old-pitches-are-better-than-ever/My point is even if it isn't Gibson the Sox should consider adding a VERY good arm to the rotation as that is what will most likely be the defining factor in actually winning a WS. The staff is decent but decent doesn't win a WS and there is no guarantee Sale is going to be what we hope this year. If he is then that would put them in a great position along with a Gibson type. And for those who think the Sox shouldn't do too much I ask why? From what I have read from players mouths is that it sends a bad message to the team when you don't do something at the deadline, they look forward to it and when you don't the message is you don't have faith in them. As far as the cap goes who cares when you have a chance at a title in a season that nobody expected a playoff birth let alone a legitimate run for the WS.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 7:03:40 GMT -5
The fact that he is having a career year at 33 means his price should be a lot less than a typical top of the line starter. So yes, assuming it isn't too big a price tag, it all depends on the cost. He will be moved so we will see the price one way or another. Doesn't pitching mean more than anything else in the post season? Yes, it means more in the post season and if we are being honest, there’s a legit chance he wouldn’t even make the Sox post season rotation. Possible rotation: Sale Eovaldi Pivetta ERod Are all legitimate possibilities to be better than him. It’d be one thing if he were a power pitcher. It’d be another if he had a track record of any real sustained success. He’s got neither. Anyways, that’s all I’ve got to say about him. This is laughable, IMO, but we can revisit the numbers at the end of the year. He has 15 very good starts in a row, the worst one being 3 runs in 8 innings. Metrics be damned that is dominant.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 7:18:18 GMT -5
Gibson would be great but he may be the prize of the trading deadline in terms of starters and I'm not sure they have the ability to get him without it really hurting. Casas and Duran I'm sure are non-starters. Would they trade downs for him? I sure hope not. Past that you're looking at Jimenez, bello or just a volume of guys from the 5-20 range. I would be willing to make Downs the highlight of the deal. If there is a position on the field that can be cobbled together 2nd base is it as far as I am concerned. Between supersubs and league average play it is the easiest to fill and the Sox are deep with those guys. Deep enough and easy enough to fill while Yorke makes his way thru the system.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 3, 2021 7:28:20 GMT -5
The problem with Gibson is that he’s always been straddling “ok “ for the duration of his career up until this first half. Acquiring him from Texas for a big haul and throwing him into the pressure cooker of a pennant race in Boston as the “big deadline acquisition” could turn the carriage back into a pumpkin. Or at least back into a carriage with maybe a wonky wheel or something, which is what he’s been more often than not
Can’t argue that this stretch hasn’t been dominant though- it’s absolutely has been. And I actually have always liked him as a pitcher ever since my younger days when I had no responsibility and could sit down and score a game like the nerd I am- I watched him sling a gem. I loved how he manipulated his fastball. I definitely won’t cry if he’s picked up and I’d say I would be cautiously optimistic that he could continue to pitch at a high level. I wonder if he’s doing anything differently. Texas did turn Lance Lynn into a stud out of nowhere so maybe there’s something going on there
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 3, 2021 7:43:45 GMT -5
Gibson would be great but he may be the prize of the trading deadline in terms of starters and I'm not sure they have the ability to get him without it really hurting. Casas and Duran I'm sure are non-starters. Would they trade downs for him? I sure hope not. Past that you're looking at Jimenez, bello or just a volume of guys from the 5-20 range. I would be willing to make Downs the highlight of the deal. If there is a position on the field that can be cobbled together 2nd base is it as far as I am concerned. Between supersubs and league average play it is the easiest to fill and the Sox are deep with those guys. Deep enough and easy enough to fill while Yorke makes his way thru the system. Between having Hernandez for the next year and a half and I like Arroyo I do agree that downs is somewhat expendable. However I'm just not all that interested in giving up downs in a deal for Gibson. His track record just isn't long enough for me to think he's a number 2 guy that can push them over the top. If we're talking about giving up downs let's go after berios who is controlled through next year too.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 8:27:50 GMT -5
I would be willing to make Downs the highlight of the deal. If there is a position on the field that can be cobbled together 2nd base is it as far as I am concerned. Between supersubs and league average play it is the easiest to fill and the Sox are deep with those guys. Deep enough and easy enough to fill while Yorke makes his way thru the system. Between having Hernandez for the next year and a half and I like Arroyo I do agree that downs is somewhat expendable. However I'm just not all that interested in giving up downs in a deal for Gibson. His track record just isn't long enough for me to think he's a number 2 guy that can push them over the top. If we're talking about giving up downs let's go after berios who is controlled through next year too. OK, like I said I'm not married to Gibson as much as I am to the idea of a real upgrade in the rotation being what will put the Sox in the best position to win this year. I think there is enough organizational depth to fill the other needs for the most part but the Sox also need to find out if what they have is going to be successful or not in the next month. They are winning despite some weak links but can Duran and or Franchy be the answers to those? I think they need to find out soon.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 8:43:11 GMT -5
The problem with Gibson is that he’s always been straddling “ok “ for the duration of his career up until this first half. Acquiring him from Texas for a big haul and throwing him into the pressure cooker of a pennant race in Boston as the “big deadline acquisition” could turn the carriage back into a pumpkin. Or at least back into a carriage with maybe a wonky wheel or something, which is what he’s been more often than not Can’t argue that this stretch hasn’t been dominant though- it’s absolutely has been. And I actually have always liked him as a pitcher ever since my younger days when I had no responsibility and could sit down and score a game like the nerd I am- I watched him sling a gem. I loved how he manipulated his fastball. I definitely won’t cry if he’s picked up and I’d say I would be cautiously optimistic that he could continue to pitch at a high level. I wonder if he’s doing anything differently. Texas did turn Lance Lynn into a stud out of nowhere so maybe there’s something going on there Of course it all depends on the price, always does. But it is exactly that history that brings down the price right. We will find out as he will be moved there is no doubt of that. I myself don't think Downs is too steep a price to pay as the headliner, then again I'm not that high on him and think Yorke is the future so there is that. Part of this just my opinion on how far the Sox should be willing to go for a shot this year. I want them to go all in while others don't want to exceed the caps nor give up any real prospects. Why when they are basically tied for the best record in baseball wouldn't you say yes we are all in escapes me. The month following the all star game is crazy when you look at the schedule. Virtually every game for a month is against the Jays, Rays and MFYs, obviously a lot can happen during this stretch. I hope it ends up being a lot of fun.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 3, 2021 8:48:19 GMT -5
A first baseman on an expiring contract that doesn’t cost that much makes the most sense to me. We’re running Bobby with a sky high K rate and Danny Baseball out there right now.
While upgrading one of our SP slots is intriguing (Richards) practically I think it’ll be too hard to pulloff with our lack of cap room and what we would need to give up to meaningfully improve our WS chances. Moreover, even taking a flier on a guy like they did with Pivetta would be hard due to limited roster spots and starts. We also already have Houck.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 3, 2021 9:37:21 GMT -5
Yes, it means more in the post season and if we are being honest, there’s a legit chance he wouldn’t even make the Sox post season rotation. Possible rotation: Sale Eovaldi Pivetta ERod Are all legitimate possibilities to be better than him. It’d be one thing if he were a power pitcher. It’d be another if he had a track record of any real sustained success. He’s got neither. Anyways, that’s all I’ve got to say about him. This is laughable, IMO, but we can revisit the numbers at the end of the year. He has 15 very good starts in a row, the worst one being 3 runs in 8 innings. Metrics be damned that is dominant. What’s laughable? The possibility that a 15 start stretch where a 33 year olds peripheral numbers line up more with his actual track record than his current ERA is more of a mirage than an indicator of his second half and playoffs?
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 3, 2021 10:02:30 GMT -5
This is laughable, IMO, but we can revisit the numbers at the end of the year. He has 15 very good starts in a row, the worst one being 3 runs in 8 innings. Metrics be damned that is dominant. What’s laughable? The possibility that a 15 start stretch where a 33 year olds peripheral numbers line up more with his actual track record than his current ERA is more of a mirage than an indicator of his second half and playoffs? "a legit chance that he doesn't even make the post season rotation" Maybe I eat crow later but the results so far is that he would he would be top 5 in Cy Young voting right now by any measure right. He should absolutely regress some in the 2nd half as very few can maintain what he has done this year but you really think their is a "legit chance" that he implodes to the point where he isn't more valuable than Pivetta? Nothing against Pivetta. Sure his track record and some peripheral numbers say he could fall on his face but doesn't all that decrease his price? Did you read the article?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 3, 2021 11:59:43 GMT -5
What’s laughable? The possibility that a 15 start stretch where a 33 year olds peripheral numbers line up more with his actual track record than his current ERA is more of a mirage than an indicator of his second half and playoffs? "a legit chance that he doesn't even make the post season rotation" Maybe I eat crow later but the results so far is that he would he would be top 5 in Cy Young voting right now by any measure right. He should absolutely regress some in the 2nd half as very few can maintain what he has done this year but you really think their is a "legit chance" that he implodes to the point where he isn't more valuable than Pivetta? Nothing against Pivetta. Sure his track record and some peripheral numbers say he could fall on his face but doesn't all that decrease his price? Did you read the article? I cannot read it - i let my athletic subscription expire and haven’t renewed it yet. And yes; I think there is a legitimate chance he doesn’t make the post season rotation here. All that has to happen is him be who he’s always been. That’s it, nothing out of the ordinary has to take place. Prior to this season, the Kyle Gibson we all know is worse than the Pivetta we’ve seen in Boston. Maybe he’s had some great turn around at his age and is a vastly superior pitcher than he’s ever been in his career. I’m not saying it’s not possible; but I’m saying I’m not paying for that considering there’s a huge possible downside to him as well.
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