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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 19:47:29 GMT -5
Wow, some of these write-ups are not very flattering.....we have taken fielders with no obvious defensive position, hitters who strikeout a ton but might be good if they learn not to strikeout, and now our second pitcher who can't throw strikes......... I gotta believe that they've seen something on film/in-person that they think they can fix.
Not saying he's going to be in the Boston 2024 rotation (as many have said, if you get even a big leaguer of any kind after around pick 50, you've done very well) but there are scouts and coaches who might have seen him and thought "I know exactly what he's doing wrong and I have fixed it in ten different kids."
Also, you gotta believe they're saving some serious slot on this kid. Sounds like a candidate for a $10k bonus -- why would he pass it up?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 19:48:42 GMT -5
not a very favorable write up on Olds, but given that we are at the point where the players most important ability is their signability, I am not going to get too worked up. He's also got an 80 name, IMO.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 19:49:45 GMT -5
Are the Orioles strictly drafting college hitters? There are some interesting draft trends among teams. Orioles all college. Giants all pitching. Indians all pitching minus 1. I suppose someone studies organizational or GM tendencies out there. Angels have taken 10 college pitchers so far...
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 12, 2021 19:52:38 GMT -5
Maybe getting him to fall to 4 was just luck, but: 1. Even if Mayer gets to 4 you still have to pick him, and teams have clearly showed they don't always make picks in line with what seems obvious to us. 2. You just do this every time. Every time someone says something good about Bloom you chime in with "well, actually, here's why it's not good". Bloom has been objectively great, albeit not perfect (it's impossible to be so) since he's stepped into this role. At a certain point just give up, admit you were wrong, and stop trying to nitpick every little thing to fit your narrative. I'm not going to hijack this thread so I won't speak on it anymore, but it was obnoxious six months ago, it's jumped the shark at this point. I only comment with things like this… where it is simply dominoes falling, but people talk the way intelligent designers do. Anyway, if the NC State 2b pans out, big ups. I sad last year Yorke could be a great job. So… when he does the unexpected… great! But don’t go overboard. I reserve the right to go fully overboard -- if I choose -- and resent anyone instructing me, or others, otherwise.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2021 19:55:06 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Jul 12, 2021 19:59:21 GMT -5
I only comment with things like this… where it is simply dominoes falling, but people talk the way intelligent designers do. Anyway, if the NC State 2b pans out, big ups. I sad last year Yorke could be a great job. So… when he does the unexpected… great! But don’t go overboard. I reserve the right to go fully overboard -- if I choose -- and resent anyone instructing me, or others, otherwise. I accept that. Overboard it is!
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Post by geostorm on Jul 12, 2021 20:01:47 GMT -5
Just finished reading this thread from maybe page 6 -- I took my brother to a doctor appointment after the Cardinals drafted Baez, had a fabulous meal (Sichuan Gourmet on Rt.9 in Framingham).
I should have taken more notes on points I liked, but I love the Marisnick comp for Fabian. Floor would seem to be 4th OFer who can platoon with any LHB in the OF and, even if his swing-and-miss limits him to that role, can crush mistakes. That forces opposing pitchers to be careful; a guy like that gets more care and respect than a guy with the same wRC+ who's a an OK hitter across all his tools.
And I don't think the mid-season adjustment he made is the same phenomenon at all as the pitchers that were cited who had breakthroughs in the months before they were drafted. That's a guy doing something new (even if it's just throwing strikes) and having enhanced success against people who've never seen it. In some cases the tool improvement itself can be a SSS fluke; you get in a groove spinning your slider for a month or two, but it's never as consistent again. I forget the name of the A-ball pitcher who finished a season about 5 - 10 years ago with just an astonishingly low walk rate (something like 2 BB in his latst 8 starts or something) and the next season, was back to ordinary.
Fixing a flaw to get back to the neighborhood of where you were is nothing like any of that. There's no countermove the opposition can make, and it can't be a SSS fluke. It substantially raises the odds that he can hit well enough to top Marisnick's career 83 wRC+ (but 100 starting in 2017).
I'll be replying to manfred re Bloom in the Mayer thread, but the short version is that I'm 100% certain that the Sox and Mayer had a plan to get him to fall to 4, and I think my argument is convincing. And I am not rounding up here. I'm not just 99.9% sure. Sichuan Gourmet is quite good - they also have a location near BU as well if I'm remembering correctly, popular among the international students there. as a Sichuan fan, here in RI, and oft traveling to/through MA, both your posts already had me looking that one up (http://www.laosichuan.com/ ) seeing multiple locations, and, also toask, if either of you have other Sichuan recommendations, in MA (or other NE neighboring)?
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 12, 2021 20:09:21 GMT -5
I'm surprised no one has mentioned JBJ. JimEd back posting after a long layoff! Welcome back.Love to hear from the JimEd!
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2021 20:34:46 GMT -5
I like this Litwicki pick. Seems like at least strong reliever potential. At this point in the draft, I say amass 95+ mph fastballs. See who sticks. I feel the same way. One way to look at it.... First, We draft a big power RP for under slot, and has a good chance to make the majors. If he's good he pitches a few good year with the sox. Then we can trade them for much higher end prospects than you would get in the 10th round (because everyone pays a ton for RP). Its a way to get value for your team with draft funds, help the big club in the bullpen, and getting future assets all for just taking someone that isn't valued highly.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 20:38:21 GMT -5
And that's it for day 2. I wonder if the Red Sox will draft a bunch of prep pitchers tomorrow and see who will take the money. I hope so although it's hard to say how much $ the Red Sox will carry over to Day 3. It doesn't feel like it will be a lot, but so much of that depends on Mayer's signing bonus. If it truly is close to slot (or plus 5%), and Fabian is also close to slot (or plus 5%), they could have a little. It doesn't feel like 2019 though when they had ~$800K extra to distribute among Day 3 picks. Five of their ten picks were not ranked in MLB.com's top 250. I think they're going to have enough left over to make a 4th- or 5th-round offer to a kid they like with the 4th pick of the 11th round.
Also, I still believe Mayer will be slot -- every single analyst I've heard has said that he "insisted on slot" from the top three teams; PIT and DET clearly went under, obviously TEX didn't care either way. Why would he change that demand for BOS? Given what happened, the only thing he had to do to "steer his way to BOS," as the conspiracy theorists are saying, is to insist on slot.
A few names I'm looking for at pick #316 are, in order of preference: RHP - Jonathan Cannon (although I think he'll go back to UGA for his junior year, be their Friday nighter, and perhaps become a first-rounder next year)
RHP - Nick Maldonado, Vandy (Feltman hasn't worked out yet but I still like the idea of drafting a guy in the middle rounds who's already a closer for a big-time program)
C - Luca Tresh, NC State
C - Blaise Priester, La. prep
A couple interesting seniors for the 12th and 13th rounds: RHP - Glenn Albanese, Louisville
1B - Niko Kavadas, Notre Dame
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Post by tizzle on Jul 12, 2021 20:42:50 GMT -5
There are some interesting draft trends among teams. Orioles all college. Giants all pitching. Indians all pitching minus 1. I suppose someone studies organizational or GM tendencies out there. Angels have taken 10 college pitchers so far... Pretty easy to figure why that org would want to go with that strategy.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,947
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2021 20:52:47 GMT -5
Sichuan Gourmet is quite good - they also have a location near BU as well if I'm remembering correctly, popular among the international students there. as a Sichuan fan, here in RI, and oft traveling to/through MA, both your posts already had me looking that one up (http://www.laosichuan.com/ ) seeing multiple locations, and, also toask, if either of you have other Sichuan recommendations, in MA (or other NE neighboring)? I thought that if I threw in that off-topic detail it might be helpful. Some years ago I read a review in the "paper" (sort of a collection of online articles and blog posts, but printed out and delivered to your door each morning) and checked it out, walked in with my brother, and we looked at each other ... "Everyone here is Chinese!" That's always a good sign.
Widely beloved (although I've met some non-believers) is Mary Chung ("Mary's") in Central Square. No ambience. Cash only. Food varies visit-to-visit (presumably because of who's in the kitchen) from really good to best Chinese food I've ever had, usually closer to that latter. Huge menu plus a sheet of specials. My TV / film group (about to hit our 17th anniversary, every Thursday night) haven't been there since COVID and we were just talking last week about going there soon.
I have a soft spot from my youth for excellent Cantonese. My gang used to go to The Wok in Wellesley every Christmas (even though only 2 or 3 of us are Jewish), but they were closed for renovations in 2019 and are now The Great Wok with new ownership, and getting rave reviews (with an expanded menu). It's a bit of a shlep, but I'm looking forward to continuing the tradition next Yule with our expanded party of 10 (more people = more dishes family style, of course).
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 12, 2021 20:57:28 GMT -5
Sichuan Gourmet is quite good - they also have a location near BU as well if I'm remembering correctly, popular among the international students there. as a Sichuan fan, here in RI, and oft traveling to/through MA, both your posts already had me looking that one up (http://www.laosichuan.com/ ) seeing multiple locations, and, also toask, if either of you have other Sichuan recommendations, in MA (or other NE neighboring)? Hot Eastern in Chinatown is a quality (if dingy) Sichuan only spot. Gourmet Dumpling House in Chinatown does a bunch of different things well, but they have nice Sichuan on the menu also. I've heard good things about Noah's Kitchen in Brookline but haven't ever been. If you get to NYC ever, Mala Project is honestly the best.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 12, 2021 21:10:25 GMT -5
How long after getting drafted can a player sign a new deal? I wonder if a team wouldn't be incentivized to strike an under slot deal with a top draft pick then extend him the following year to to a new deal above his draft deal and lock him up for a few more years with additional bonus pool flexibility during the draft.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 12, 2021 21:13:12 GMT -5
I've never been to Chong Qing House in Providence but I've heard good things about it. And if you're in/passing by Hartford, Shu's is really good and has the best dan dan noodles I've ever had.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2021 21:13:17 GMT -5
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 12, 2021 21:18:22 GMT -5
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Post by TheCerebral1 on Jul 12, 2021 22:11:57 GMT -5
Odd question, will there be a podcast? There usually is one from my recollection of past drafts.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2021 22:16:04 GMT -5
Not going to lie. It feels really weird that the board is mostly happy at the end of round 10. A day without b****ing is like a night without stars lol.
We may have to put our limited edition Boston pitch forks away for the year, and like I said...feels weird
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 12, 2021 22:51:43 GMT -5
I hope so although it's hard to say how much $ the Red Sox will carry over to Day 3. It doesn't feel like it will be a lot, but so much of that depends on Mayer's signing bonus. If it truly is close to slot (or plus 5%), and Fabian is also close to slot (or plus 5%), they could have a little. It doesn't feel like 2019 though when they had ~$800K extra to distribute among Day 3 picks. Five of their ten picks were not ranked in MLB.com's top 250. I think they're going to have enough left over to make a 4th- or 5th-round offer to a kid they like with the 4th pick of the 11th round.
Also, I still believe Mayer will be slot -- every single analyst I've heard has said that he "insisted on slot" from the top three teams; PIT and DET clearly went under, obviously TEX didn't care either way. Why would he change that demand for BOS? Given what happened, the only thing he had to do to "steer his way to BOS," as the conspiracy theorists are saying, is to insist on slot.
A few names I'm looking for at pick #316 are, in order of preference: RHP - Jonathan Cannon (although I think he'll go back to UGA for his junior year, be their Friday nighter, and perhaps become a first-rounder next year)
RHP - Nick Maldonado, Vandy (Feltman hasn't worked out yet but I still like the idea of drafting a guy in the middle rounds who's already a closer for a big-time program)
C - Luca Tresh, NC State
C - Blaise Priester, La. prep
A couple interesting seniors for the 12th and 13th rounds: RHP - Glenn Albanese, Louisville
1B - Niko Kavadas, Notre Dame
Maldonado, along w MA native Dom Keegan, and Isaiah Thomas are all heading back to Vandy per Kendall Rogers, supposedly no matter what happens tmrw. I would really like Niko, I am almost certain he comes off the board in the first 10 picks tmrw. Like Albanese a lot too. There's a starters repitoire there. Jalen Battles SS from Arkansas is absolutely a SS, questionable hit tool, but give me the plus D at this stage. Chris Wallace is a Biggie Lefty from Iowa that has a Chris Murphy esque profile when he was coming out. MA native Dennis Colleran went undrafted. Maybe we'll see Sebastian Keane deja vu as a MA HSer committed to Northeastern get taken in thr 11th round. Hes pitching in the Futures League right now, and pitched 7/10, an indication he may want to go to school. (Northeastern is loaded w arms next yr) Jackson Linn a 2 way player committed to Tulane w big raw m power and Jonathan Santucci, Duke, are 2 more MA HSer they could in theory attempt to go over slot for, and Adrian Serivo a NH native, who mentioned his eagerness to sign, and committed to Uconn. The latter 2 have worked out for the Sox.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2021 23:02:04 GMT -5
Odd question, will there be a podcast? There usually is one from my recollection of past drafts. We're literally weekly now. What makes you feel the need to ask? Lol.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 12, 2021 23:05:31 GMT -5
I'll try not to rain too hard on this parade. Those of you who've been on the site for a while have heard this from me before. I'd love to see Fabian buck history, and he can bring a bit to a team even if he's not a great hitter as others have pointed out. But his profile is one that has had limited success in MLB history. This is as table sorted by WAR for players who bat right and throw left. The fact that there are two pitchers in this list tells you a bit about how rare that success has been:
Player | oWAR | From | To | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
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Rickey Henderson | 105.2 | 1979 | 2003 | 3081 | 13346 | 10961 | 2295 | 3055 | 510 | 66 | 297 | 1115 | .279 | .401 | .419 | .820 | Jimmy Ryan | 43.3 | 1885 | 1903 | 1896 | 8577 | 7686 | 1544 | 2348 | 419 | 152 | 112 | 1004 | .305 | .373 | .443 | .816 | Hal Chase | 26.9 | 1905 | 1919 | 1699 | 7048 | 6559 | 852 | 1892 | 272 | 105 | 37 | 804 | .288 | .317 | .379 | .696 | Cleon Jones | 18.5 | 1963 | 1976 | 1213 | 4730 | 4263 | 565 | 1196 | 183 | 33 | 93 | 524 | .281 | .339 | .404 | .744 | Rube Bressler | 18.4 | 1914 | 1932 | 1305 | 4499 | 3881 | 544 | 1170 | 164 | 87 | 32 | 586 | .301 | .378 | .413 | .791 | Ryan Ludwick | 11.5 | 2002 | 2014 | 1065 | 3986 | 3549 | 454 | 923 | 201 | 8 | 154 | 587 | .260 | .330 | .451 | .781 | Cody Ross | 10.5 | 2003 | 2015 | 1073 | 3806 | 3453 | 449 | 904 | 211 | 13 | 132 | 508 | .262 | .322 | .445 | .768 | Johnny Cooney | 7.8 | 1921 | 1944 | 1172 | 3675 | 3372 | 408 | 965 | 130 | 26 | 2 | 219 | .286 | .329 | .342 | .671 | Mike Hampton | 7.6 | 1993 | 2010 | 423 | 845 | 725 | 97 | 178 | 22 | 5 | 16 | 79 | .246 | .294 | .356 | .650 | Mark Carreon | 7.4 | 1987 | 1996 | 738 | 2191 | 2012 | 246 | 557 | 108 | 5 | 69 | 289 | .277 | .327 | .438 | .766 | Madison Bumgarner | 4.8 | 2009 | 2021 | 302 | 706 | 615 | 52 | 108 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 64 | .176 | .231 | .299 | .530 |
Given those totals, there's plenty of room to squeeze in another bat. Hopefully, Fabian will fit in there from the middle up.
Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool UsedGenerated 7/12/2021.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jul 12, 2021 23:07:42 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 12, 2021 23:22:59 GMT -5
I'll try not to rain too hard on this parade. Those of you who've been on the site for a while have heard this from me before. I'd love to see Fabian buck history, and he can bring a bit to a team even if he's not a great hitter as others have pointed out. But his profile is one that has had limited success in MLB history. This is as table sorted by WAR for players who bat right and throw left. The fact that there are two pitchers in this list tells you a bit about how rare that success has been: Player | oWAR | From | To | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
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Rickey Henderson | 105.2 | 1979 | 2003 | 3081 | 13346 | 10961 | 2295 | 3055 | 510 | 66 | 297 | 1115 | .279 | .401 | .419 | .820 | Jimmy Ryan | 43.3 | 1885 | 1903 | 1896 | 8577 | 7686 | 1544 | 2348 | 419 | 152 | 112 | 1004 | .305 | .373 | .443 | .816 | Hal Chase | 26.9 | 1905 | 1919 | 1699 | 7048 | 6559 | 852 | 1892 | 272 | 105 | 37 | 804 | .288 | .317 | .379 | .696 | Cleon Jones | 18.5 | 1963 | 1976 | 1213 | 4730 | 4263 | 565 | 1196 | 183 | 33 | 93 | 524 | .281 | .339 | .404 | .744 | Rube Bressler | 18.4 | 1914 | 1932 | 1305 | 4499 | 3881 | 544 | 1170 | 164 | 87 | 32 | 586 | .301 | .378 | .413 | .791 | Ryan Ludwick | 11.5 | 2002 | 2014 | 1065 | 3986 | 3549 | 454 | 923 | 201 | 8 | 154 | 587 | .260 | .330 | .451 | .781 | Cody Ross | 10.5 | 2003 | 2015 | 1073 | 3806 | 3453 | 449 | 904 | 211 | 13 | 132 | 508 | .262 | .322 | .445 | .768 | Johnny Cooney | 7.8 | 1921 | 1944 | 1172 | 3675 | 3372 | 408 | 965 | 130 | 26 | 2 | 219 | .286 | .329 | .342 | .671 | Mike Hampton | 7.6 | 1993 | 2010 | 423 | 845 | 725 | 97 | 178 | 22 | 5 | 16 | 79 | .246 | .294 | .356 | .650 | Mark Carreon | 7.4 | 1987 | 1996 | 738 | 2191 | 2012 | 246 | 557 | 108 | 5 | 69 | 289 | .277 | .327 | .438 | .766 | Madison Bumgarner | 4.8 | 2009 | 2021 | 302 | 706 | 615 | 52 | 108 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 64 | .176 | .231 | .299 | .530 |
Given those totals, there's plenty of room to squeeze in another bat. Hopefully, Fabian will fit in there from the middle up.
Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool UsedGenerated 7/12/2021. I'm not really sure I follow your point. That's just a function of there not being many humans that bat right and throw left, right? Or are you trying to say that given a player who bats right throws left and a player who bats left and throws left, you think the latter has a better chance of succeeding?
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2021 23:26:56 GMT -5
Madelyn Rickey certainly throws some gas
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