SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox Select Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,196
|
Post by radiohix on Jul 14, 2021 8:23:35 GMT -5
I really like his swing
|
|
|
Post by eagleeye9184 on Jul 14, 2021 8:25:32 GMT -5
JBJ was also hurt his final yr at South Carolina, IIRC. That was one of the reasons the junior year production was down for him offensively, and why he fell a bit in the draft.
And yes, JBJ did turn out OK.
|
|
|
Post by agastonguay13 on Jul 14, 2021 8:54:23 GMT -5
Just over these 2 Bloom regime drafts, it seems like the strategy has been "don't overthink it","the younger the better", and "power is a carrying tool to prioritize". Looks to me like Fabian fits well into that mantra. He's a year-ish younger than his counterparts, was thought highly of for a long time before a rough 1st half of this season, and has a good power tool, to go along with his solid-strong field, run, and arm tools. Seems worth a 2nd round flier to score a potential top 10(?) talent should his hit tool be able to improve to simply average.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
|
Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 9:05:28 GMT -5
JBJ was also hurt his final yr at South Carolina, IIRC. That was one of the reasons the junior year production was down for him offensively, and why he fell a bit in the draft. And yes, JBJ did turn out OK. When we were trying to come up with names of people the Sox picked because their previous year was better than their most recent year, like JBJ, we forgot about Dalbec, who was better in his first second year at Arizona (.319 .410 .601 1.011) than in his third (.260 .370 .429 .799).
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 14, 2021 9:18:03 GMT -5
JBJ was also hurt his final yr at South Carolina, IIRC. That was one of the reasons the junior year production was down for him offensively, and why he fell a bit in the draft. And yes, JBJ did turn out OK. When we were trying to come up with names of people the Sox picked because their previous year was better than their most recent year, like JBJ, we forgot about Dalbec, who was better in his first second year at Arizona (.319 .410 .601 1.011) than in his third (.260 .370 .429 .799). You can't just lump these guys together in one statistical group unless you also sort by the reasons for the decline. JBJ was injured, Dalbec was primarily a pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 9:20:52 GMT -5
This is another reason why comps are horrible (and yet I love them as much as all of you). We're comparing a player with a whole host of possible outcomes to another player who himself had a whole set of possible outcomes. We never know how guys are going to progress. It's perfectly plausible that a guy like JBJ might have had a better potential hit tool at some point than Fabian does and by the time both of their careers are over Fabian has a better MLB average. He, could also never play in the big leagues. I personally think that comping to JBJ is kind of non-sensical in itself. He's a unicorn.
He's an 80 fielder with a 70 arm and maybe the streakiest hitter I've ever seen, with far longer cold streaks than hot. Also 80 make up. So that's who Fabian is? That said, I can't resist comping Fabian to Renfroe, even if Renfroe's last year in college was much better.
|
|
|
Post by philarhody on Jul 14, 2021 10:50:02 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr. hit .331 in three combined SEC seasons with a 13% strikeout rate. His easy plus fielding was his carrying tool. Fabian hit .249 in three combined SEC seasons with a 25% strikeout rate. He plays a good center field. You’re certainly right that Jackie had better stats in college, and hit better in college overall, but it’s not fair to compare cumulative stats that include Fabian hitting .230 as a “freshman” when he should have been a high school senior. Certainly the K problem separates them, but that .230 as a 17YO [[actually he was 18 that year]] is a plus not a minus. Yes, he hit .230 as a 17 year old.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
|
Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 11:23:38 GMT -5
When we were trying to come up with names of people the Sox picked because their previous year was better than their most recent year, like JBJ, we forgot about Dalbec, who was better in his first second year at Arizona (.319 .410 .601 1.011) than in his third (.260 .370 .429 .799). You can't just lump these guys together in one statistical group unless you also sort by the reasons for the decline. JBJ was injured, Dalbec was primarily a pitcher. I wasn't doing any "lumping," just noting that the Red Sox have several times picked a player whose previous year was better than their most recent year, and that Dalbec is another one of those. And Dalbec was not "primarily" a pitcher since he was in the lineup every day for all three years; he pitched a lot, but no more in his weaker jr season than in his stronger (1011 OPS) sophomore season. Being a pitcher had nothing to with his slump.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 11:28:45 GMT -5
When we were trying to come up with names of people the Sox picked because their previous year was better than their most recent year, like JBJ, we forgot about Dalbec, who was better in his first second year at Arizona (.319 .410 .601 1.011) than in his third (.260 .370 .429 .799). You can't just lump these guys together in one statistical group unless you also sort by the reasons for the decline. JBJ was injured, Dalbec was primarily a pitcher. Correct on JBJ but I don't think that's true on Dalbec. He was primiarily a reliever when he pitched, but got hot at the end of the year and they started using him as a starter for their deep postseason run. Meanwhile he had over 200 at-bats.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2021 11:30:58 GMT -5
Pointing out that Fabian has major problems that are likely to keep him from having a solid 10+ WAR major league career is kind of silly given that the odds of any 40th overall draft pick making it are lousy.
Pointing out his swing and miss issues is a good argument for not wanting to take him over Henry Davis or Jack Leiter. It's not as persuasive when the alternative is Matthew Lugo
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2021 11:44:00 GMT -5
Pointing out that Fabian has major problems that are likely to keep him from having a solid 10+ WAR major league career is kind of silly given that the odds of any 40th overall draft pick making it are lousy. Pointing out his swing and miss issues is a good argument for not wanting to take him over Henry Davis or Jack Leiter. It's not as persuasive when the alternative is Matthew Lugo Yep! Here is the complete list of all #40 picks ever taken. Guys who put up more than 4 career WAR:
Kevin Tapani (29.2) Larry Gura (21.4) Jackie Bradley (18.1) Milton Bradley (16.9) Huston Street (14.5)
That's it. 5 out of 50+ players.
So maybe we should reframe the question from "Does Jud Fabian project to be a successful major leaguer?" to "Is there a 1 in 10 chance that Fabian can overcome his swing-and-miss tendencies to become a successful major leaguer?" If you think there's a 10% chance of that then you'd have to call it an acceptable pick. If you think there's a 20% chance then you'd have to call it a great pick.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,753
|
Post by mobaz on Jul 14, 2021 11:54:00 GMT -5
Pointing out that Fabian has major problems that are likely to keep him from having a solid 10+ WAR major league career is kind of silly given that the odds of any 40th overall draft pick making it are lousy. Pointing out his swing and miss issues is a good argument for not wanting to take him over Henry Davis or Jack Leiter. It's not as persuasive when the alternative is Matthew Lugo Yep! Here is the complete list of all #40 picks ever taken. Guys who put up more than 4 career WAR:
Kevin Tapani (29.2) Larry Gura (21.4) Jackie Bradley (18.1) Milton Bradley (16.9) Huston Street (14.5)
That's it. 5 out of 50+ players.
So maybe we should reframe the question from "Does Jud Fabian project to be a successful major leaguer?" to "Is there a 1 in 10 chance that Fabian can overcome his swing-and-miss tendencies to become a successful major leaguer?" If you think there's a 10% chance of that then you'd have to call it an acceptable pick. If you think there's a 20% chance then you'd have to call it a great pick.
And the whole reason for a comp is: "If he is a great pick, what might that look like?" To me that's where the JBJ thought comes in since Fabian has notable power and defense, might struggle for avg or be deeply streaky with the bat, based on the very limited data we have. He could certainly somehow become Mike Trout but a comp of that is absurd, especially given the info we have.
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Jul 14, 2021 12:22:16 GMT -5
I really like his swing A confusing/mysterious thing about the K problems Fabian has had is all the things we are fairly confident aren't causing it. His swing is smooth and more or less without major holes and it's not like he's been brutally chasing pitches. Just missed a lot.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2021 12:42:51 GMT -5
Yep! Here is the complete list of all #40 picks ever taken. Guys who put up more than 4 career WAR:
Kevin Tapani (29.2) Larry Gura (21.4) Jackie Bradley (18.1) Milton Bradley (16.9) Huston Street (14.5)
That's it. 5 out of 50+ players.
So maybe we should reframe the question from "Does Jud Fabian project to be a successful major leaguer?" to "Is there a 1 in 10 chance that Fabian can overcome his swing-and-miss tendencies to become a successful major leaguer?" If you think there's a 10% chance of that then you'd have to call it an acceptable pick. If you think there's a 20% chance then you'd have to call it a great pick.
And the whole reason for a comp is: "If he is a great pick, what might that look like?" To me that's where the JBJ thought comes in since Fabian has notable power and defense, might struggle for avg or be deeply streaky with the bat, based on the very limited data we have. He could certainly somehow become Mike Trout but a comp of that is absurd, especially given the info we have. You lump these two things together like they're fairly similar but I think they're actually quite different and probably is why I don't think the Fabian-JBJ comps have any merit. Fabian could very well have his batting average capped by high K%'s but I think that's much, much different than the steaks JBJ went on when half of the time he didn't even look like a AA-quality hitter and the other half he looked like a silver slugger. Fabian's hitting profile seems a little more stable than that.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 13:21:17 GMT -5
A confusing/mysterious thing about the K problems Fabian has had is all the things we are fairly confident aren't causing it. His swing is smooth and more or less without major holes and it's not like he's been brutally chasing pitches. Just missed a lot. I presume the swing in the gif is from later in the season when he quieted his leg kick. EDIT: Actually, that's probably from 2019, the last time they played at an AAC opponent (USF in February).
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 13:31:18 GMT -5
A confusing/mysterious thing about the K problems Fabian has had is all the things we are fairly confident aren't causing it. His swing is smooth and more or less without major holes and it's not like he's been brutally chasing pitches. Just missed a lot. I presume the swing in the gif is from later in the season when he quieted his leg kick. Haven't seen the earlier one. Cody Ross?
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,700
|
Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2021 14:17:25 GMT -5
A ton of people writing Fabian off just makes me like him more. Having a sketchy hit tool is a big concern, but he’s got every other tool you need. Plenty of hit-tool first players will end up striking out 23%+ of the time too, and not many of them will have the power output Fabian does. He could completely flame out, but not many college players taken in the 2nd round have this type upside.
Here’s hoping they trust him enough to send him to Salem right away. Can’t wait to follow him.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
|
Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 14:23:57 GMT -5
You can't just lump these guys together in one statistical group unless you also sort by the reasons for the decline. JBJ was injured, Dalbec was primarily a pitcher. Correct on JBJ but I don't think that's true on Dalbec. He was primiarily a reliever when he pitched, but got hot at the end of the year and they started using him as a starter for their deep postseason run. Meanwhile he had over 200 at-bats. Dalbec had the same number of starts, 7, in his sophomore and junior years, with more total innings junior year because of, as you say, the deep postseason run, but had more relief appearances (21 vs 14) and saves ( 7 vs 5) in the junior year. In his three years at the plate he had 194, 253 and 277 PA. www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=182994
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
|
Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 14:31:41 GMT -5
Pointing out that Fabian has major problems that are likely to keep him from having a solid 10+ WAR major league career is kind of silly given that the odds of any 40th overall draft pick making it are lousy. Pointing out his swing and miss issues is a good argument for not wanting to take him over Henry Davis or Jack Leiter. It's not as persuasive when the alternative is Matthew Lugo Yep! Here is the complete list of all #40 picks ever taken. Guys who put up more than 4 career WAR:
Kevin Tapani (29.2) Larry Gura (21.4) Jackie Bradley (18.1) Milton Bradley (16.9) Huston Street (14.5)
That's it. 5 out of 50+ players.
So maybe we should reframe the question from "Does Jud Fabian project to be a successful major leaguer?" to "Is there a 1 in 10 chance that Fabian can overcome his swing-and-miss tendencies to become a successful major leaguer?" If you think there's a 10% chance of that then you'd have to call it an acceptable pick. If you think there's a 20% chance then you'd have to call it a great pick.
Small sample? if you slide down to #41 you get 8 people who put up more than 4 career WAR, topped by Fred Lynn's 50.2. #42 = six, as is #43, #44 = 7, incl Votto at 61.3 so far, #46 = 7 incl Scott Rolen and Jimmy Rollins
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 14, 2021 14:37:00 GMT -5
Interesting and informative Mason McRae report on Fabian (spoiler, he likes him) in his pre-draft rankings: Jud Fabian (#17):
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jul 14, 2021 14:42:44 GMT -5
A ton of people writing Fabian off just makes me like him more. Having a sketchy hit tool is a big concern, but he’s got every other tool you need. Plenty of hit-tool first players will end up striking out 23%+ of the time too, and not many of them will have the power output Fabian does. He could completely flame out, but not many college players taken in the 2nd round have this type upside. Here’s hoping they trust him enough to send him to Salem right away. Can’t wait to follow him. Salem is high A now, I have made the same mistake btw. You aren't saying he is ready for high A are you? I mean with the K situation being what it is you don't need to make it harder on him.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2021 14:48:06 GMT -5
No - Salem was high A. It is now low A.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Jul 14, 2021 14:48:50 GMT -5
A ton of people writing Fabian off just makes me like him more. Having a sketchy hit tool is a big concern, but he’s got every other tool you need. Plenty of hit-tool first players will end up striking out 23%+ of the time too, and not many of them will have the power output Fabian does. He could completely flame out, but not many college players taken in the 2nd round have this type upside. Here’s hoping they trust him enough to send him to Salem right away. Can’t wait to follow him. Salem is high A now, I have made the same mistake btw. You aren't saying he is ready for high A are you? I mean with the K situation being what it is you don't need to make it harder on him. Salem is Low A - Greenville is Hi A
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2021 15:03:35 GMT -5
Yep! Here is the complete list of all #40 picks ever taken. Guys who put up more than 4 career WAR:
Kevin Tapani (29.2) Larry Gura (21.4) Jackie Bradley (18.1) Milton Bradley (16.9) Huston Street (14.5)
That's it. 5 out of 50+ players.
So maybe we should reframe the question from "Does Jud Fabian project to be a successful major leaguer?" to "Is there a 1 in 10 chance that Fabian can overcome his swing-and-miss tendencies to become a successful major leaguer?" If you think there's a 10% chance of that then you'd have to call it an acceptable pick. If you think there's a 20% chance then you'd have to call it a great pick.
Small sample? if you slide down to #41 you get 8 people who put up more than 4 career WAR, topped by Fred Lynn's 50.2. #42 = six, as is #43, #44 = 7, incl Votto at 61.3 so far, #46 = 7 incl Scott Rolen and Jimmy Rollins Okay, 13% then? Or raise the bar to 7 WAR or whatever you want to define as a "successful major leaguer"; 4 career WAR is a very generous criterion for success. (Between all 350+ picks in the 40-46 range, 24 have put up so many as 10 WAR. Sean Doolittle or Scott Hatteberg is like a 93rd percentile outcome for this group.)
In any event, I think the basic point stands.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jul 14, 2021 15:09:27 GMT -5
No - Salem was high A. It is now low A. Man I just can't seem to get this right.......
|
|
|