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Red Sox Select Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 14, 2021 15:12:49 GMT -5
Small sample? if you slide down to #41 you get 8 people who put up more than 4 career WAR, topped by Fred Lynn's 50.2. #42 = six, as is #43, #44 = 7, incl Votto at 61.3 so far, #46 = 7 incl Scott Rolen and Jimmy Rollins Okay, 13% then? Or raise the bar to 7 WAR or whatever you want to define as a "successful major leaguer"; 4 career WAR is a very generous criterion for success. (Between all 350+ picks in the 40-46 range, 24 have put up so many as 10 WAR. Sean Doolittle or Scott Hatteberg is like a 93rd percentile outcome for this group.)
In any event, I think the basic point stands. Yeah and the point kind of sucks... sorry but it does just make you temper all optimism and say why bother. None of these guys have much of a chance of being good.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 15:20:26 GMT -5
Interesting and informative Mason McRae report on Fabian (spoiler, he likes him) in his pre-draft rankings: Jud Fabian (#17): This is great to read, but can we both like it, and not like this guy's view that Mayer is "the least safe bet among Lawlar, House, and Watson to stay at short"?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 14, 2021 15:23:54 GMT -5
Interesting and informative Mason McRae report on Fabian (spoiler, he likes him) in his pre-draft rankings: Jud Fabian (#17): This is great to read, but can we both like it, and not like this guy's view that Mayer is "the least safe bet among Lawlar, House, and Watson to stay at short"? He can't be right every time...
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2021 15:32:56 GMT -5
Okay, 13% then? Or raise the bar to 7 WAR or whatever you want to define as a "successful major leaguer"; 4 career WAR is a very generous criterion for success. (Between all 350+ picks in the 40-46 range, 24 have put up so many as 10 WAR. Sean Doolittle or Scott Hatteberg is like a 93rd percentile outcome for this group.)
In any event, I think the basic point stands. Yeah and the point kind of sucks... sorry but it does just make you temper all optimism and say why bother. None of these guys have much of a chance of being good. Haha, well I made the point originally as a reason to like the Fabian pick!
Here's an optimistic spin: some guys work out in most drafts, and Fabian has a better chance than most to be one of those guys. Plus, with his upside, he could really work out - as well as JBJ or even better.
More warm fuzzies: Duran was pick #220, Dalbec was #118, Mookie was #172, Vazquez was #292, Rizzo was #204, Masterson was #71, Buchholz #42, Lowrie #45, Reddick #523... Odds are decent that at least one of the guys they drafted after Mayer turns into a really good player!
This is what makes it fun, right? jimoh pointed out a number of superstars drafted in that range. We spread around the bets and then see how they work out. And sometimes you hit a jackpot...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2021 16:16:07 GMT -5
Yup, had the same thought, I think. To simplify the point, I think there's a difference between having reason to be optimistic broadly and a specific pick being good or bad based on that specific player's outcome, right? Mookie Betts probably winds up the best 5th round pick ever. Jarren Duran is likely going to be in the top percentile of 7th round outcomes. You just can't expect EVERY pick to have an outcome like that or you're going to constantly be disappointed.
So I think it's: be optimistic in the aggregate, but it's tough to be optimistic on every specific player. Does that make sense?
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Post by patford on Jul 14, 2021 16:44:34 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong. Prior to the start of his season Fabian was not seen as suspect to high K rates? Then he had a bad half season after which he recovered pretty strongly. And it's not like that bad first half was because he was seeing stuff he had never seen before. This suggests to me some mechanical problem.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2021 17:08:06 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong. Prior the the start of his season Fabian was not seen as suspect do to high K rates? Then he had a bad half season after which he recovered pretty strongly. And it's not like that bad first half was because he was seeing stuff he had never seen before. This suggests to me some mechanical problem. There were concerns about the 25% K rate before this season started, and hope that he would reduce his k-rate as a young junior: "Despite Fabian’s immense talent and all the progress he’d made at UF, his one Achilles Heel remained his high strikeout totals—his composite K-rate as a collegiate (including his time on the Cape) has been a not-so-stellar 25.2 percent. Still, because of his youth (with a September 27, 2000 birthday, Fabian will be one of the youngest collegians in this year’s draft), quick bat, and the gains he’s already exhibited since arriving in Gainesville, many—this writer included—were confident that Fabian would be able to significantly reduce his whiffs in 2021. Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case for the Ocala, FL native." www.collegebaseball.info/post/florida-scouting-report-jud-fabian-back-on-track (that piece goes on to talk about adjustments he made to cut down his Ks in the second part of 2021)
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Post by patford on Jul 14, 2021 17:51:41 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong. Prior the the start of his season Fabian was not seen as suspect do to high K rates? Then he had a bad half season after which he recovered pretty strongly. And it's not like that bad first half was because he was seeing stuff he had never seen before. This suggests to me some mechanical problem. There were concerns about the 25% K rate before this season started, and hope that he would reduce his k-rate as a young junior: "Despite Fabian’s immense talent and all the progress he’d made at UF, his one Achilles Heel remained his high strikeout totals—his composite K-rate as a collegiate (including his time on the Cape) has been a not-so-stellar 25.2 percent. Still, because of his youth (with a September 27, 2000 birthday, Fabian will be one of the youngest collegians in this year’s draft), quick bat, and the gains he’s already exhibited since arriving in Gainesville, many—this writer included—were confident that Fabian would be able to significantly reduce his whiffs in 2021. Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case for the Ocala, FL native." www.collegebaseball.info/post/florida-scouting-report-jud-fabian-back-on-track (that piece goes on to talk about adjustments he made to cut down his Ks in the second part of 2021) Thanks. Well at least it was not viewed as a big concern when he was widely seen as top five or ten.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 14, 2021 20:05:06 GMT -5
Yup, had the same thought, I think. To simplify the point, I think there's a difference between having reason to be optimistic broadly and a specific pick being good or bad based on that specific player's outcome, right? Mookie Betts probably winds up the best 5th round pick ever. Jarren Duran is likely going to be in the top percentile of 7th round outcomes. You just can't expect EVERY pick to have an outcome like that or you're going to constantly be disappointed. So I think it's: be optimistic in the aggregate, but it's tough to be optimistic on every specific player. Does that make sense? That's funny because I would have said the opposite: in the aggregate be conservative and don't expect Red Sox drafted players to repeatedly outplay their draft slot, but it's ok to fall in love with the occasional player based on scouting (or honestly whatever - I know everyone here is rooting for Owen Sharts). Just don't do it too much compared to average.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 14, 2021 20:43:39 GMT -5
Interesting and informative Mason McRae report on Fabian (spoiler, he likes him) in his pre-draft rankings: Jud Fabian (#17): This is great to read, but can we both like it, and not like this guy's view that Mayer is "the least safe bet among Lawlar, House, and Watson to stay at short"? I just don’t understand how Fabian has an “above average hit tool.” Why didn’t he hit at any point in college then? You cannot say he was insanely unlucky, because he struck out at a rate that would only be matched by one 1st rounder in the last decade, Jeren Kendall.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 14, 2021 20:58:20 GMT -5
This is great to read, but can we both like it, and not like this guy's view that Mayer is "the least safe bet among Lawlar, House, and Watson to stay at short"? I just don’t understand how Fabian has an “above average hit tool.” Why didn’t he hit at any point in college then? You cannot say he was insanely unlucky, because he struck out at a rate that would only be matched by one 1st rounder in the last decade, Jeren Kendall. He hit in 2019 on the cape, in a shortened season last year, and in summer ball last year. I wouldn’t say he didn’t hit at “any” point. This year there was obviously some struggles though and they will definitely be something to watch Without those struggles we don’t get him unless it’s at 4. Hopefully he’s a tweak away from striking out 25% of the time. If we can get him to that we will have a good player on our hands
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 14, 2021 21:22:38 GMT -5
Yup, had the same thought, I think. To simplify the point, I think there's a difference between having reason to be optimistic broadly and a specific pick being good or bad based on that specific player's outcome, right? Mookie Betts probably winds up the best 5th round pick ever. Jarren Duran is likely going to be in the top percentile of 7th round outcomes. You just can't expect EVERY pick to have an outcome like that or you're going to constantly be disappointed. So I think it's: be optimistic in the aggregate, but it's tough to be optimistic on every specific player. Does that make sense? That's funny because I would have said the opposite: in the aggregate be conservative and don't expect Red Sox drafted players to repeatedly outplay their draft slot, but it's ok to fall in love with the occasional player based on scouting (or honestly whatever - I know everyone here is rooting for Owen Sharts). Just don't do it too much compared to average. Someone posted a Twitter thread the other day that actually suggests you should do exactly that. The Red Sox likely have been the best team at drafting (overall) since 1965 (the thread mentioned the study was only through 2000, but because the Red Sox have drafted a number of stars since then, their lead has likely grown). This study didn’t even take into account average draft position, which for the Sox has been quite low. I’d be interested to see how that breaks down by era, but yeah interestingly the Red Sox have shown that perhaps you should expect more of their draftees to outperform their draft slot than you typically would.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Jul 15, 2021 9:10:11 GMT -5
No - Salem was high A. It is now low A. Man I just can't seem to get this right....... I try the "When an A ball player moves up, he now DRIVES to Greenville" device...
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 15, 2021 9:27:55 GMT -5
I like to focus more on his age which is really something when you think he should still have been in high school while playing for Florida and being the youngest player ever to be an all star in the Cape League. That isn't anything to overlook or discount.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 15, 2021 9:35:02 GMT -5
No - Salem was high A. It is now low A. Man I just can't seem to get this right....... G is "above" S in the alphabet.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2021 10:57:14 GMT -5
Man I just can't seem to get this right....... G is "above" S in the alphabet. Greenville is nicer than Salem (which is fine just Roanoke is kind of sleepy).
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Post by azblue on Jul 16, 2021 22:44:06 GMT -5
Fly into the Roanoke airport once and you will never book a flight that lands there again unless you are into thrills. Upbelievably steep approach. I thought I was on a Magic Mountain coaster ride.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Jul 16, 2021 23:13:48 GMT -5
Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen threw a Franchy comp on Jud Fabian during the Fangraphs draft recap podcast. Probably a good comp but made me laugh
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 16, 2021 23:17:02 GMT -5
Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen threw a Franchy comp on Jud Fabian during the Fangraphs draft recap podcast. Probably a good comp but made me laugh It sounds to me from what ive read that Fabian will be able to stick at center and maybe even be a very good defensive cf. Franchy is not that. From the angle that Fabian currently has a lot of tools and can hit the home run but strikes out a lot then ya i can see the Franchy comparison I suppose.
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Post by orion09 on Jul 17, 2021 2:42:14 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 17, 2021 9:19:10 GMT -5
Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen threw a Franchy comp on Jud Fabian during the Fangraphs draft recap podcast. Probably a good comp but made me laugh It sounds to me from what ive read that Fabian will be able to stick at center and maybe even be a very good defensive cf. Franchy is not that. From the angle that Fabian currently has a lot of tools and can hit the home run but strikes out a lot then ya i can see the Franchy comparison I suppose. To be clear, they were comping his bat to Franchy. Fabian offers more on defense obviously.
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Post by patford on Jul 17, 2021 9:37:25 GMT -5
So Fabian always had swing and miss in his game. This was known but not seen as a huge concern when he was top 10 and even top 5. Then he had one bad stretch and came out of it with one of the better K rates over a period of time which he has had while maintaining his power. That sounds like a guy worth taking a chance on. Keeping in mind there were people ready to declare Yorke a bust.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 17, 2021 9:40:37 GMT -5
Man I just can't seem to get this right....... G is "above" S in the alphabet. Why Paint Green Shutters?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 17, 2021 9:47:56 GMT -5
Yup, had the same thought, I think. To simplify the point, I think there's a difference between having reason to be optimistic broadly and a specific pick being good or bad based on that specific player's outcome, right? Mookie Betts probably winds up the best 5th round pick ever. Jarren Duran is likely going to be in the top percentile of 7th round outcomes. You just can't expect EVERY pick to have an outcome like that or you're going to constantly be disappointed. So I think it's: be optimistic in the aggregate, but it's tough to be optimistic on every specific player. Does that make sense? That's funny because I would have said the opposite: in the aggregate be conservative and don't expect Red Sox drafted players to repeatedly outplay their draft slot, but it's ok to fall in love with the occasional player based on scouting (or honestly whatever - I know everyone here is rooting for Owen Sharts). Just don't do it too much compared to average. I usually cotton onto a few random guys for one reason or another. My guys this year are Hickey, Miller, Webb, Guerrero, and Hood. Hope they sign the last two... I wonder if Chaim could recruit former players to go surprise these kids in person and convince them to sign.. How would Guerrero possibly turn Pedro down or Hood say no to Pedroia?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 17, 2021 10:11:11 GMT -5
Personally I’d have an easy time turning down a celebrity convincing me not to go to college for no money.
Now Fabian, Fabian is different, because he may end up taking less than he thought he was going to get but he’s still going to become a millionaire.
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