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Red Sox Select Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
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Post by orion09 on Jul 19, 2021 14:51:58 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2021 14:55:17 GMT -5
"and made no adjustment whatsoever during the season." C'mon Keith.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2021 15:05:34 GMT -5
"and made no adjustment whatsoever during the season." C'mon Keith. He gets into it with a fan making comments that reference the BA article that details the adjustments he made. And he basically calls BA liars and that he was correct.
What an ass. I'm done with him.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 19, 2021 19:44:41 GMT -5
Challenged by The MaineDeLorean on twitter on the BA claim that “Fabian worked to implement his new approach, a simplified load with a removal of his leg kick, but it took time. ...Fabian went from a 37.4% K-rate on April 6 to a more palatable 29.3% rate by the end of the season." Law replies: “ Just watch him. That’s simply not true. And his strikeout rate went right back up at the end - 19 K in his last 46 PA.”
So Law’s claim about the last 46 PA must be true, right? What about his doubt on eliminating the leg kick? Seems to me I’ve seen video after April 6 with a leg kick. Can anyone document the change in video? And if his last 46 PA were K-ful, then from Aug 6 until then must have been even better, no?
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Jul 19, 2021 20:46:21 GMT -5
Challenged by The MaineDeLorean on twitter on the BA claim that “Fabian worked to implement his new approach, a simplified load with a removal of his leg kick, but it took time. ...Fabian went from a 37.4% K-rate on April 6 to a more palatable 29.3% rate by the end of the season." Law replies: “ Just watch him. That’s simply not true. And his strikeout rate went right back up at the end - 19 K in his last 46 PA.” So Law’s claim about the last 46 PA must be true, right? What about his doubt on eliminating the leg kick? Seems to me I’ve seen video after April 6 with a leg kick. Can anyone document the change in video? And if his last 46 PA were K-ful, then from Aug 6 until then must have been even better, no? Yeah, it looks like this is accurate, though it included a stretch from 5/16 - 5/22 where he struck out 11 times in 16 ABs. floridagators.com/sports/baseball/roster/jud-fabian/14217
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2021 11:38:48 GMT -5
More on the Keith Law's Rather Bearish View of Jud Fabian Controversy in this twitter exchange:
(sheesh, that ended up being longer than I realized)
My only observation here is that Law's points about the level of competition seem notable, but also every college hitter faces varying levels of competition so I'm not sure why Fabian's obvious overall improvement in K rate should be entirely discounted.
ADD: I guess the other thing I'd observe is that, even if two-strike pitches are "a tiny fraction of the pitches he sees," they nonetheless figure in every one of his strikeouts, so it does seem like a change in two-strike approach would be relevant to his strikeout rate.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 20, 2021 12:35:48 GMT -5
More on the Keith Law's Rather Bearish View of Jud Fabian Controversy in this twitter exchange:
(sheesh, that ended up being longer than I realized)
My only observation here is that Law's points about the level of competition seem notable, but also every college hitter faces varying levels of competition so I'm not sure why Fabian's obvious overall improvement in K rate should be entirely discounted.
And more this morning from the other guy, the MaineDeLorean: "The entire claim that he had changed his approach was that he changed his two-strike approach. Your claim that he did not change his approach is thus false. You can keep trying that "you'll see what you want to see" argument (projection?) but it carried no weight. Now you are saying "his approach AS A WHOLE has not changed." Before you said "and made NO ADJUSTMENT WHATSOEVER during the season." This is the problem. I didn't think you were a "rephrase my position so it looks like I was always right" guy."
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2021 14:13:04 GMT -5
He fought the Law and won.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 20, 2021 14:24:09 GMT -5
Law is technically wrong and not dealing with that very well.
Taking a step back, his general point is that the narrative that goes something like "Fabian significantly changed his technique leading to significant improvements in his contact ability" is flimsy, which looks to me to be a defensible critique.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2021 14:26:54 GMT -5
Law is technically wrong and not dealing with that very well. Taking a step back, his general point is that the narrative that goes something like "Fabian significantly changed his technique leading to significant improvements in his contact ability" is flimsy, which looks to me to be a defensible critique. I wouldn't have even noticed what he wrote unless it was "he made absolutely no adjustments".
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Post by patford on Jul 20, 2021 14:30:46 GMT -5
Law is technically wrong and not dealing with that very well. Taking a step back, his general point is that the narrative that goes something like "Fabian significantly changed his technique leading to significant improvements in his contact ability" is flimsy, which looks to me to be a defensible critique. Good rule to thumb. Pay attention to everything Law says and do the opposite.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 20, 2021 14:43:06 GMT -5
Law is technically wrong and not dealing with that very well. Taking a step back, his general point is that the narrative that goes something like "Fabian significantly changed his technique leading to significant improvements in his contact ability" is flimsy, which looks to me to be a defensible critique. Good rule to thumb. Pay attention to everything Law says and do the opposite. When I saw that he basically said groome was our 2nd best prospect a flag kind of went up on him for me. He just hasn't played enough at all for me to really understand where he is coming from with that opinion. Has he ever explained his seemingly bearish opinion on Casas and to a lesser extent downs?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 20, 2021 14:55:54 GMT -5
Law is technically wrong and not dealing with that very well. Taking a step back, his general point is that the narrative that goes something like "Fabian significantly changed his technique leading to significant improvements in his contact ability" is flimsy, which looks to me to be a defensible critique. Yes, we could take out the pissiness and inaccuracy and rewrite Law's position as "Although Fabian made changes to his two-strike approach and reduced his strikeout rate for the rest of the season, much of the improvement was against weak pitching, and his last 11 games featured worrisome clumps of Ks and a return of the high K rate, so I am pessimistic about his chances for success in mlb." That's a defensible position, but also one you could disagree with.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2021 15:11:38 GMT -5
Law is technically wrong and not dealing with that very well. Taking a step back, his general point is that the narrative that goes something like "Fabian significantly changed his technique leading to significant improvements in his contact ability" is flimsy, which looks to me to be a defensible critique. Yes, we could take out the pissiness and inaccuracy and rewrite Law's position as "Although Fabian made changes to his two-strike approach and reduced his strikeout rate for the rest of the season, much of the improvement was against weak pitching, and his last 11 games featured worrisome clumps of Ks and a return of the high K rate, so I am pessimistic about his chances for success in mlb." That's a defensible position, but also one you could disagree with. As concerns this substantive question, it seems relevant that his overall K rate in college was about 25%, which is basically what he returned to after his early season struggles. That still isn't super great for a college player, but it seems like a more reasonable baseline than taking his 37% rate from early in the season as a true reflection of the kind of hitter he is.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 20, 2021 15:49:59 GMT -5
When Law stated on draft day that Fabian hadnt made any adjustments, my hope was that the reason he was wrong is that he didnt view the video or in person of Fabian last month or so. Unfortunately that is not the case, he seems to have studied Fabian pretty well, this is just a situation where tow sided disagree. This will be another one that will be fun to follow as going after Keith will make it probably over defensive with regard to this prospect. He is going to be down on Fabian unless he has a sustained run of lower level strikeouts.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 20, 2021 16:31:53 GMT -5
Keith Law is a bit of an ass. We should all know that. We should also know, however, that Jud Fabian has a massive swing and miss problem, and he didn’t solve that problem last season.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 20, 2021 16:36:21 GMT -5
Yes, we could take out the pissiness and inaccuracy and rewrite Law's position as "Although Fabian made changes to his two-strike approach and reduced his strikeout rate for the rest of the season, much of the improvement was against weak pitching, and his last 11 games featured worrisome clumps of Ks and a return of the high K rate, so I am pessimistic about his chances for success in mlb." That's a defensible position, but also one you could disagree with. As concerns this substantive question, it seems relevant that his overall K rate in college was about 25%, which is basically what he returned to after his early season struggles. That still isn't super great is really bad for a college player, but it seems like a more reasonable baseline than taking his 37% rate from early in the season as a true reflection of the kind of hitter he is.
Fixed
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 20, 2021 17:01:10 GMT -5
Fabian was striking out too much earlier in the season. He started changing his approach and adjusting his leg kick--visibly--with two strikes. This caused him to strike out less frequently, improving his overall line. The strikeouts, even after the adjustments, were too much for an elite college prospect, which is why he was available with the 40th pick in the draft despite a plus defensive profile in center field and legitimate power.
There's nothing in the preceding paragraph that's remotely controversial. Law twisted the words of people saying he made an adjustment into people saying he was fixed or some such. I don't know why he does stuff like that. It would've been easy to say that he unintentionally exaggerated his point, which was (seemingly) that he didn't think the adjustments were enough to rate him as a prospect. And that's crazy because that seems like a very fair opinion!
He has been uncommonly high on Groome for a long time. I have no problem with that. Rating Groome above Casas because Groome's strikeout rate is high? As a 2016 draft pick who is still in High A? Nahhhhh. If you're going THAT far off the board I need to see a better reason.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 20, 2021 17:04:41 GMT -5
When Law stated on draft day that Fabian hadnt made any adjustments, my hope was that the reason he was wrong is that he didnt view the video or in person of Fabian last month or so. Unfortunately that is not the case, he seems to have studied Fabian pretty well, this is just a situation where tow sided disagree. This will be another one that will be fun to follow as going after Keith will make it probably over defensive with regard to this prospect. He is going to be down on Fabian unless he has a sustained run of lower level strikeouts. I think it's actually clear from the back-and-forth that this is not the case. The way he links the Baseball Prospectus youtube video makes it clear (to me at least) that Law did not watch Fabian enough to be making definitive claims about approach and mid-season changes. Instead, he made the claim, got called out on it, had to look for video wherever it was available, and then had to generate a post-hoc rationalization for why he wasn't actually wrong. All that being said, I did watch a ton of SEC baseball this season (maybe unlike Keith Law) and tend to agree with the position that Fabian has too much swing and miss in his game to be successful at the next level. I think I deviate from the thrust of the argument here though in that my take on it was I think Fabian's problem is mostly between the ears. I like minimizing the leg kick, but I feel like the swing is mechanically nice. He's short to the ball, uses good balance which helps with his leverage and angles. His knees are bent and he looks relaxed - both his hands and his head are pretty quiet normally and his hands are actually pretty quick. His relatively steep bat path causes some high fastball issues, but he had a bunch of trouble identifying break balls, leading to him getting ahead of himself and on the front foot against breaking balls low and away. Maybe he minimizes the leg kick and it gives him more time to pick up pitches, but yeah.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jul 20, 2021 18:44:10 GMT -5
When Law stated on draft day that Fabian hadnt made any adjustments, my hope was that the reason he was wrong is that he didnt view the video or in person of Fabian last month or so. Unfortunately that is not the case, he seems to have studied Fabian pretty well, this is just a situation where tow sided disagree. This will be another one that will be fun to follow as going after Keith will make it probably over defensive with regard to this prospect. He is going to be down on Fabian unless he has a sustained run of lower level strikeouts. I think it's actually clear from the back-and-forth that this is not the case. The way he links the Baseball Prospectus youtube video makes it clear (to me at least) that Law did not watch Fabian enough to be making definitive claims about approach and mid-season changes. Instead, he made the claim, got called out on it, had to look for video wherever it was available, and then had to generate a post-hoc rationalization for why he wasn't actually wrong. [...] I think it was the other guy who cited the BP youtube video and said something about it, then Law before answering him watched it (to his credit) then commented on it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 20, 2021 19:18:24 GMT -5
The red flag for me, if accurate, is the claim that he can't deal with sliders. If he has a problem identifying spin, that's not good.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 20, 2021 19:39:15 GMT -5
I think it's actually clear from the back-and-forth that this is not the case. The way he links the Baseball Prospectus youtube video makes it clear (to me at least) that Law did not watch Fabian enough to be making definitive claims about approach and mid-season changes. Instead, he made the claim, got called out on it, had to look for video wherever it was available, and then had to generate a post-hoc rationalization for why he wasn't actually wrong. [...] I think it was the other guy who cited the BP youtube video and said something about it, then Law before answering him watched it (to his credit) then commented on it. Oh I see, I was confused by the spacing/labelling. Also, then not to do the same post-hoc justification thing, but Law also is being a little unfair in his argumentation. Fabian might not have seen Mississippi State's top guys in the SEC tournament, but it was followed up by weekend starters for Alabama and Tennessee. I don't think he faced disproportionately bad pitching for the SEC tournament. The Arkansas series was terrible, but if we're talking competition in his worst game there, Florida got 6 innings of Wicklander and 3 of Kopps, which was literally the toughest combination in college baseball this year. He struck out once against Rocker + Leiter. As someone who is not a strong believer in Jud Fabian and watched a good amount of SEC baseball, I don't think pitching weakness is the explanation. I am always wary of the aggressive subsetting that often accompanies prospect watching though. Far from convinced by this one stretch.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 20, 2021 19:39:44 GMT -5
Law is technically wrong and not dealing with that very well. Law being overly defensive after a bad take? Shocking!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 21, 2021 14:05:50 GMT -5
If Law was less abrasive he would have been a lot more successful in his career. It’s great to be right more often than you’re wrong, but being graceful at both high and low points endears you to coworkers, readers, fans, etc. and Law simply cannot come off that way at all.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 21, 2021 13:52:09 GMT -5
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