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Red Sox Select Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
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Post by incandenza on Oct 21, 2021 13:59:38 GMT -5
He wanted to go back to UF to "prove the doubters and the haters wrong." I guess the doubters and the haters are the ones who took him 40th overall in the MLB draft? Still think this was a badly misguided decision on his part.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 21, 2021 14:27:39 GMT -5
Still think this was a badly misguided decision on his part. He said he was angry and crying a lot. Okay, I guess I understand how he came to make a decision that an outsider would think is obviously bad for him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 21, 2021 14:49:35 GMT -5
First thought with the doubters and haters comment is that his ego or pride got in the way and he thinks he is better than that. Which IMO really isn't a healthy way of looking at it. Just go and prove yourself at the next level.
If playing with his brother is a real consolation prize for him then ok. I hope it doesn't end up costing him too much. He isn't the first guy to make this decision.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Oct 21, 2021 15:10:25 GMT -5
Not sure who the haters were, but I'd think turning pro and kicking butt might be a way to address it. We don't know all that went into his decision. Maybe he felt another year would generate not only a higher draft $$$, but also the chance to have 'fun' in the college atmosphere, banking on himself that he'll have an even better season and get drafted higher in 2022.
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 21, 2021 15:16:51 GMT -5
The decision at the time was puzzeling...these comments are even more so.
A decent team is willing to invest 2M$ in you...that has to be in the top 5-10% of outcomes that you could reasonably expect from a draft right?
And that made him...angry? Yeah I mean...life really handed you lemons there...a real low blow...
I know I'm ranting...we're all crazy, one way or another...but this just doesn't look like the most well grounded decision. Maybe in the end the RS will be happy he didn't sign...
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Post by congusgambler33 on Oct 21, 2021 17:30:43 GMT -5
Next year he will be a top ten draft pick and make a lot more money? ?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 21, 2021 18:13:32 GMT -5
It's crazy to me that it's a given that a player would not be able to change their bonus demands after a team drafts him, but that a player should be expected to come down from the number that he's given to teams. If he'd said he needed $2.6 million and the Sox drafted him and then he was like "nah, number is $3.2 million" then absolutely nobody would begrudge the Red Sox for not indulging that. That should work both ways, and the fact that we're okay with it when the capital does it but consider it bad form for the labor to do it is fundamentally screwed up.
Back when certain teams could offer players unlimited money, a draft made sense. Now that it's a capped system, what's the point? There are teams that were willing to pay Fabian $2.6 million of their pool. But because they happen to be picking lower than the Red Sox, he's supposed to just accept $300K less? I don't know if it's a good decision or a bad decision for him professional. But I absolutely stand with anyone who tells potential employers what his labor is worth and sticks to it.
As far as the comments on this page... I get what you're all saying, about how playing with on your shoulder due to slights, real or perceived, is a bad attitude that will lead to failure. Really reminds me of busts like Pedro Martinez or Dustin Pedroia.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 21, 2021 18:20:36 GMT -5
Yeah, this isn't an impressive look for him. I also get the impression his self-perception and reality don't really jibe. I much prefer the extra pick next year...this is a red flag to me. Best of luck to him, in a lot of ways he's understandably disappointed. I just don't see him as really fitting in with the current Red Sox organizational philosophy/direction. This looks like manufacturing boogeymen to assuage one's pride, done in a really generically immature and unimaginative way.
I'd be concerned that he wouldn't be adaptable enough or really able/willing to adjust to and cope with adversity...particularly if this is what he thinks adversity is. Try making $3000 a month at 25 coming off career-threatening injury and a down year, hoping to get back to MLB but blocked by All-Stars, with a new wife and a kid on the way.
Edit: Eh, on second watch I'm not sure I'd even take that away from it. Kinda seems like he's just bummed it didn't work out and he's just saying something to have something to say. Still think he made a really poor decision financially but I'm walking back how much I think this reveals about his character.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 21, 2021 19:14:09 GMT -5
It's crazy to me that it's a given that a player would not be able to change their bonus demands after a team drafts him, but that a player should be expected to come down from the number that he's given to teams. If he'd said he needed $2.6 million and the Sox drafted him and then he was like "nah, number is $3.2 million" then absolutely nobody would begrudge the Red Sox for not indulging that. That should work both ways, and the fact that we're okay with it when the capital does it but consider it bad form for the labor to do it is fundamentally screwed up. Back when certain teams could offer players unlimited money, a draft made sense. Now that it's a capped system, what's the point? There are teams that were willing to pay Fabian $2.6 million of their pool. But because they happen to be picking lower than the Red Sox, he's supposed to just accept $300K less? I don't know if it's a good decision or a bad decision for him professional. But I absolutely stand with anyone who tells potential employers what his labor is worth and sticks to it. As far as the comments on this page... I get what you're all saying, about how playing with on your shoulder due to slights, real or perceived, is a bad attitude that will lead to failure. Really reminds me of busts like Pedro Martinez or Dustin Pedroia. I have nothing but respect for a player that uses the leverage they have available to them and gets a great deal for themselves. No one thinks that's what happened here. Getting emotional and lighting money on fire in a negotiation is not commendable. It's sad that he didn't have someone more aligned with his interests to guide him through the process. Hope it ends well for him.
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Post by mantush on Oct 21, 2021 20:16:49 GMT -5
He's a hyper competitive baseball player that has spent years hearing he is one of the best in the country. Getting drafted in the second round has to be a huge blow. I'm sure it's like finishing second at the Olympics.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 21, 2021 20:45:19 GMT -5
It's crazy to me that it's a given that a player would not be able to change their bonus demands after a team drafts him, but that a player should be expected to come down from the number that he's given to teams. If he'd said he needed $2.6 million and the Sox drafted him and then he was like "nah, number is $3.2 million" then absolutely nobody would begrudge the Red Sox for not indulging that. That should work both ways, and the fact that we're okay with it when the capital does it but consider it bad form for the labor to do it is fundamentally screwed up. Back when certain teams could offer players unlimited money, a draft made sense. Now that it's a capped system, what's the point? There are teams that were willing to pay Fabian $2.6 million of their pool. But because they happen to be picking lower than the Red Sox, he's supposed to just accept $300K less? I don't know if it's a good decision or a bad decision for him professional. But I absolutely stand with anyone who tells potential employers what his labor is worth and sticks to it. As far as the comments on this page... I get what you're all saying, about how playing with on your shoulder due to slights, real or perceived, is a bad attitude that will lead to failure. Really reminds me of busts like Pedro Martinez or Dustin Pedroia. I have nothing but respect for a player that uses the leverage they have available to them and gets a great deal for themselves. No one thinks that's what happened here. Getting emotional and lighting money on fire in a negotiation is not commendable. It's sad that he didn't have someone more aligned with his interests to guide him through the process. Hope it ends well for him. What negotiation? He came in with a number that he said he'd sign for. There were teams looking to draft and sign him for that moeny. The Red Sox stepped in and then offered him less money and wouldn't sign him to the figure he asked for. If players are expected to honor their figure, teams should do the same.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 21, 2021 21:27:14 GMT -5
I have nothing but respect for a player that uses the leverage they have available to them and gets a great deal for themselves. No one thinks that's what happened here. Getting emotional and lighting money on fire in a negotiation is not commendable. It's sad that he didn't have someone more aligned with his interests to guide him through the process. Hope it ends well for him. What negotiation? He came in with a number that he said he'd sign for. There were teams looking to draft and sign him for that moeny. The Red Sox stepped in and then offered him less money and wouldn't sign him to the figure he asked for. If players are expected to honor their figure, teams should do the same. Do we know this? More importantly, do we know all the specifics? Nuances could be important. If the RS promised him a certain amount of money if they drafted him and then reneged, then yes, I would say that's shady. But if JF was open about the money he wanted and other teams drafting after the RS agreed to give him that amount (which is how I read your last post), then the RS did nothing wrong. They took a chance and chose to use a pick on the belief they'd get him to sign at their number, not the one he wanted. That's their right. He chose to turn them down and go back to college. That's his right. Both sides protected what they saw as their own interests, which is exactly what they should have been doing, and were unable to reach an agreement. Happens all the time in business.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 21, 2021 21:45:03 GMT -5
The Red Sox have no obligation to pass on the top player on their board and let the Baltimore Orioles get their man. By all accounts they made a good faith effort to sign him. Most people seem to think that the Red Sox disappointing offer was clearly better for Fabian than the only alternative that was available. If everyone looked at the situation and thought he'd likely get $6 million next year, then the reactions on here would be different.
Players should honor their pre-draft figures because under typical circumstances they do not have the leverage to significantly increase their demands after the draft. They will just go unsigned. But if say, the Mets third rounder this year took advantage of the Kumar Rocker situation and doubled his demand and actually got the money - then hell yeah, good for him.
It's a shame that the draft strips away the negotiating power of amateur players and if I were dictator of the world, this system would not be in place. But this is the game they're stuck playing.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 21, 2021 22:11:37 GMT -5
The Red Sox have no obligation to pass on the top player on their board and let the Baltimore Orioles get their man. By all accounts they made a good faith effort to sign him. Most people seem to think that the Red Sox disappointing offer was clearly better for Fabian than the only alternative that was available. If everyone looked at the situation and thought he'd likely get $6 million next year, then the reactions on here would be different. Players should honor their pre-draft figures because under typical circumstances they do not have the leverage to significantly increase their demands after the draft. They will just go unsigned. But if say, the Mets third rounder this year took advantage of the Kumar Rocker situation and doubled his demand and actually got the money - then hell yeah, good for him. It's a shame that the draft strips away the negotiating power of amateur players and if I were dictator of the world, this system would not be in place. But this is the game they're stuck playing.Right, my point is that's bad, and instead of just accepting that it's bad, we should point it out. It's unfair to the player who isn't able to earn the money that employers are willing to pay him, and unfair to the team willing to pay a player more than another team. And again, not just willing to pay more because they're richer and able to pay more, but pay more out of a capped pool. In the pre-capped era, Fabian would've gotten his money because there really wouldn't be any reason to not sign a guy over like a $300K difference. But by capping the pool, you're stripping even more leverage away from the players. As far as the Red Sox not doing anything wrong... I dunno. They have no obligation to pay a player as much as another team in a draft system, that's for sure. But drafting kids who have no leverage and pitting them against each other in the way they did stretches the boundaries of ethics at the very least. They knew the bonus demands of Fabian and Hickey and used their lack of leverage against them.
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Post by jmei on Oct 21, 2021 22:44:43 GMT -5
The Red Sox have no obligation to pass on the top player on their board and let the Baltimore Orioles get their man. By all accounts they made a good faith effort to sign him. Most people seem to think that the Red Sox disappointing offer was clearly better for Fabian than the only alternative that was available. If everyone looked at the situation and thought he'd likely get $6 million next year, then the reactions on here would be different. Players should honor their pre-draft figures because under typical circumstances they do not have the leverage to significantly increase their demands after the draft. They will just go unsigned. But if say, the Mets third rounder this year took advantage of the Kumar Rocker situation and doubled his demand and actually got the money - then hell yeah, good for him. It's a shame that the draft strips away the negotiating power of amateur players and if I were dictator of the world, this system would not be in place. But this is the game they're stuck playing.Right, my point is that's bad, and instead of just accepting that it's bad, we should point it out. It's unfair to the player who isn't able to earn the money that employers are willing to pay him, and unfair to the team willing to pay a player more than another team. And again, not just willing to pay more because they're richer and able to pay more, but pay more out of a capped pool. In the pre-capped era, Fabian would've gotten his money because there really wouldn't be any reason to not sign a guy over like a $300K difference. But by capping the pool, you're stripping even more leverage away from the players. As far as the Red Sox not doing anything wrong... I dunno. They have no obligation to pay a player as much as another team in a draft system, that's for sure. But drafting kids who have no leverage and pitting them against each other in the way they did stretches the boundaries of ethics at the very least. They knew the bonus demands of Fabian and Hickey and used their lack of leverage against them. So is it your view that the front office should never try to negotiate with a draftee and only pick them if they're willing and able to offer 100% of what that player's agent has floated pre-draft? I'm not sure that is a reasonable expectation, and I'm really struggling to see anything unethical about what the front office did here. It's a two-way negotiation and both sides routinely engage in exaggeration, posturing and puffery. It's not like Fabian was (to our knowledge) lied to or misled, and the Red Sox seemed to have made a bona fide, good faith offer. Of the various abuses of capital over labor, both in the world at large and in MLB specifically, this seems like as mild a case as I could imagine.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 21, 2021 23:35:23 GMT -5
Right, my point is that's bad, and instead of just accepting that it's bad, we should point it out. It's unfair to the player who isn't able to earn the money that employers are willing to pay him, and unfair to the team willing to pay a player more than another team. And again, not just willing to pay more because they're richer and able to pay more, but pay more out of a capped pool. In the pre-capped era, Fabian would've gotten his money because there really wouldn't be any reason to not sign a guy over like a $300K difference. But by capping the pool, you're stripping even more leverage away from the players. As far as the Red Sox not doing anything wrong... I dunno. They have no obligation to pay a player as much as another team in a draft system, that's for sure. But drafting kids who have no leverage and pitting them against each other in the way they did stretches the boundaries of ethics at the very least. They knew the bonus demands of Fabian and Hickey and used their lack of leverage against them. So is it your view that the front office should never try to negotiate with a draftee and only pick them if they're willing and able to offer 100% of what that player's agent has floated pre-draft? I'm not sure that is a reasonable expectation, and I'm really struggling to see anything unethical about what the front office did here. It's a two-way negotiation and both sides routinely engage in exaggeration, posturing and puffery. It's not like Fabian was (to our knowledge) lied to or misled, and the Red Sox seemed to have made a bona fide, good faith offer. Of the various abuses of capital over labor, both in the world at large and in MLB specifically, this seems like as mild a case as I could imagine.
I would add that the Red Sox' good faith offer was apparently for $440,000 over slot (assuming James is right; he seems to know more details about this than I was aware of). And, moreover, it was for a life-altering amount of money.
I am as pro-labor as they come, I really am. I'm in a union myself. But this is not like a collective bargaining situation. It's an individual contract negotiation, and if Fabian came into the draft with a number he would need to sign, that was a negotiating position, a tactic, for him to maximize his payout, not a principled stand against the bourgeoisie. Yes, the system is stacked in favor of capital; but it's also the rare situation where the labor side is in a position to make a 7-figure payday.
Incidentally, the interview itself is an example of the sort of bad advice he probably got. The interviewer at one point (around 13 min or so I think) speaks of him as a future major leaguer as if it's a fait accompli. You can well imagine that a lot of people around him talk like that. He also encourages him when Fabian talks about himself as "proving that he's the best player in the nation." This is not encouraging a realistic assessment of his prospects.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 22, 2021 6:22:14 GMT -5
I think it's interesting that by going back to school he is, in a way, betting against himself.
If we assume that by entering the draft he is delayed one year from making the majors, and upon reaching the majors he will play for over 6 years, then he will be costing himself 1 year of a salary that's likely to be far greater than any extra salary he may obtain from a signing bonus next year.
On the other hand, if we assume that he is going to washout in the minor leagues, or get to the majors but never reach free agency, then going back to school and playing better 'may' grant him a larger signing bonus, in which case he will be better off.
The third scenario would be that he goes back to school but doesn't improve his stock, while lowering his bargaining leverage, and he is immediately worse off.
I'm making quite a few assumptions above that may not be true (principally that he won't improve nearly as much in college as he would in the minors), but if you think about it this way, he's actually taking the middle-road at the expense of the money he could make if he fails or becomes wildly successful.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 22, 2021 8:43:33 GMT -5
I think it's interesting that by going back to school he is, in a way, betting against himself. If we assume that by entering the draft he is delayed one year from making the majors, and upon reaching the majors he will play for over 6 years, then he will be costing himself 1 year of a salary that's likely to be far greater than any extra salary he may obtain from a signing bonus next year. On the other hand, if we assume that he is going to washout in the minor leagues, or get to the majors but never reach free agency, then going back to school and playing better 'may' grant him a larger signing bonus, in which case he will be better off. The third scenario would be that he goes back to school but doesn't improve his stock, while lowering his bargaining leverage, and he is immediately worse off. I'm making quite a few assumptions above that may not be true (principally that he won't improve nearly as much in college as he would in the minors), but if you think about it this way, he's actually taking the middle-road at the expense of the money he could make if he fails or becomes wildly successful. Yeah, as an exercise in sheer rational maximization, his decision makes sense only if he thinks he'll be good enough to get a top-25 bonus in next year's draft, but not good enough to succeed as a major leaguer. I'm guessing he does not hold both of those beliefs, so presumably the decision was irrationally motivated.
That might not just be resentment at the Red Sox' offer, by the way. It could be something like fear of leaving a comfortable life in Florida, and the outcome of the draft allowed a rationalization for him to stay. That's totally speculative, obviously. But whatever the case, the people around him should have been encouraging a rational decision, and I have a strong suspicion they were not.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 22, 2021 9:45:42 GMT -5
Just as a point of information, I don't believe we know anything about what the Red Sox actually offered. We can surmise they offered about $2M, at least, based on the cap money left on the table and the timing of other bonuses, but I don't think anything has actually been reported on that. For all we know they offered him slot (although I doubt that's what happened).
Just wanted to point that out because I'm seeing a lot of discussion about what they offered like we know, but unless I missed something (possible!), we don't.
Anyway, as for the situation, I see nothing wrong with the Red Sox drafting him and offering him whatever they did - that's the reality of the draft. I think Fabian can justifiably be pissed he had $3M on the table and didn't get it because the Red Sox drafted him, but that anger is best directed at the draft system the team operated within. Finally, he is perfectly justified in betting on himself and going back to school. Not the decision I'd have made and I wonder if he got some bad advice, but he's not a bad person or an idiot for doing that.
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Post by patford on Oct 22, 2021 9:52:39 GMT -5
He could just have easily proven the doubters and haters wrong in the Red Sox system as he can by returning to Florida. In fact he could already have done so. Plenty of players in sports (not just baseball) have used a low draft position to motivate themselves.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 22, 2021 10:08:14 GMT -5
Just as a point of information, I don't believe we know anything about what the Red Sox actually offered. We can surmise they offered about $2M, at least, based on the cap money left on the table and the timing of other bonuses, but I don't think anything has actually been reported on that. For all we know they offered him slot (although I doubt that's what happened). Just wanted to point that out because I'm seeing a lot of discussion about what they offered like we know, but unless I missed something (possible!), we don't. Anyway, as for the situation, I see nothing wrong with the Red Sox drafting him and offering him whatever they did - that's the reality of the draft. I think Fabian can justifiably be pissed he had $3M on the table and didn't get it because the Red Sox drafted him, but that anger is best directed at the draft system the team operated within. Finally, he is perfectly justified in betting on himself and going back to school. Not the decision I'd have made and I wonder if he got some bad advice, but he's not a bad person or an idiot for doing that. I hope and assume no one thinks he's a bad person for his decision. Moreover, I don't think any of the critics of his decision particularly care about it from the Red Sox' perspective; I feel like the general sentiment is that it's just as well to have the compensatory pick next year. It's more a sort of regret or frustration on his behalf, and directed at the people around him more than Fabian himself. (It's theoretically possible that everyone was pleading with him to take the offer and he just stubbornly refused, but listening to the interview I... doubt that was the case.)
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Post by ramireja on Oct 22, 2021 11:30:18 GMT -5
I don't know if some of you are forgetting this aspect, but it was reported that the Orioles were willing to meet his $3M asking price with the very next pick in the draft. I think based on that knowledge, Fabian's emotions are completely justified right? I get that the completely rational decision might be to settle for the Sox offer anyways, but it was certainly a complex situation and I don't think any criticisms of him speaking on his frustrations are warranted. Did the Sox do something wrong? I discussed this enough earlier and don't need to completely rehash everything. It wasn't the worst thing in the baseball history. You can certainly blame the 'system' and take the blame off of the Red Sox, but I think James is on point that they stretched the boundaries of ethics at the very best.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 22, 2021 11:45:39 GMT -5
If you think your the best player in Colleg ball and going to be darn good in the majors. I'd take 2 million from the Red Sox over 3 million from the Orioles all day long.
The thing that's funny is that a bunch of teams throw around ideas. If this happens and this happens maybe we can do this. It doesn't mean the Orioles were going to actually give him that.
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Post by bluechip on Oct 22, 2021 11:46:02 GMT -5
It's crazy to me that it's a given that a player would not be able to change their bonus demands after a team drafts him, but that a player should be expected to come down from the number that he's given to teams. If he'd said he needed $2.6 million and the Sox drafted him and then he was like "nah, number is $3.2 million" then absolutely nobody would begrudge the Red Sox for not indulging that. That should work both ways, and the fact that we're okay with it when the capital does it but consider it bad form for the labor to do it is fundamentally screwed up. Back when certain teams could offer players unlimited money, a draft made sense. Now that it's a capped system, what's the point? There are teams that were willing to pay Fabian $2.6 million of their pool. But because they happen to be picking lower than the Red Sox, he's supposed to just accept $300K less? I don't know if it's a good decision or a bad decision for him professional. But I absolutely stand with anyone who tells potential employers what his labor is worth and sticks to it. I have zero issue with the player setting a demand and sticking to It. Nevertheless, under this system, the player should not expect that he will fall to a team that shares that valuation. Really, the only one harmed by the player taking that position is the player, as he goes another year without being drafted. The team just gets an equivalent pick next year. This system is stacked in favor of the teams, and current union members have little incentive to use collective bargaining to help out nonmembers.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 22, 2021 12:00:39 GMT -5
It's crazy to me that it's a given that a player would not be able to change their bonus demands after a team drafts him, but that a player should be expected to come down from the number that he's given to teams. If he'd said he needed $2.6 million and the Sox drafted him and then he was like "nah, number is $3.2 million" then absolutely nobody would begrudge the Red Sox for not indulging that. That should work both ways, and the fact that we're okay with it when the capital does it but consider it bad form for the labor to do it is fundamentally screwed up. Back when certain teams could offer players unlimited money, a draft made sense. Now that it's a capped system, what's the point? There are teams that were willing to pay Fabian $2.6 million of their pool. But because they happen to be picking lower than the Red Sox, he's supposed to just accept $300K less? I don't know if it's a good decision or a bad decision for him professional. But I absolutely stand with anyone who tells potential employers what his labor is worth and sticks to it. I have zero issue with the player setting a demand and sticking to It. Nevertheless, under this system, the player should not expect that he will fall to a team that shares that valuation. Really, the only one harmed by the player taking that position is the player, as he goes another year without being drafted. The team just gets an equivalent pick next year. This system is stacked in favor of the teams, and current union members have little incentive to use collective bargaining to help out nonmembers. Yeah and in my mind I am worth whatever I think and I am sticking to it regardless of what my employer thinks. Come on!! Sure it is his choice but how in the heck is that the unions fault when he doesn't get it? So some 20 year old kid decides what he is worth and he is the one who is being harmed when he doesn't get what he thinks he is worth. Especially in a sport where so many guys fail. Do you remember years ago when the agents for NFL draftees were getting huge money for their players? It was absolutely terrible!!
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