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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 16:08:11 GMT -5
Yes, makes sense, and you're reminding me that this is kind of what I semi-expected this past offseason, when I was more bearish on Dalbec than most... But what's your read on the fact that he's still able to put together those uber-hot stretches? He's done so as recently as June (.382/.432/.794 from 6/10 to 6/20), and he had a general improving trend this season until the last few weeks. I don't think Middlebrooks or Chavis ever really did that after the league made adjustments to them. Is it reason to still see potential in Dalbec, or is it just a siren song? Middlebrooks Aug 10-21, 2013 .441 .535 .706 1.241. Brought him up to .228 .279 .435 .714 Sept 2-8, 2013: .464 .500 .929 1.429. Brought his average up to .245. Then he hit .138 .153 .259 .411 the rest of the year. Luckily we had this 20-year-old kid to play 3b in the post-season. Maybe you could make a comparison to Dalbec here, but that was an 11-game stretch and then a 5-game stretch late in a season in which he thoroughly stunk for the first 3 months. (The August stretch actually began immediately after he'd been gone for almost 2 months - in AAA? - so I'm wondering if the league "forgot" its adjustments to him, or if he made a new one that was just very quickly exposed.)
By contrast, Dalbec has already had the following stretches this season:
4/11-4/27 (13 games): .325/.372/.550 5/7-5/20 (11 games): .316/.366/.737 6/10-6/20 (9 games): .382/.432/.794
He's spent almost half his season in hot streaks. It's just that his cold streaks are soooo bad.
Or even overall, from 5/7 to 6/29 (38 games) he was a very playable .246/.293/.523.
I guess my point is... it's like Dalbec's thing works some of the time, even with the league presumably having adjusted. And then sometimes he looks terrible. It's not just prospect hope or any early power surge that we're still dreaming on - he has gotten it done at the major league level for some notable stretches! And he still hasn't come close to a full season's worth of PAs yet. So is it too much to see some potential for him to lock into his groove on a more consistent basis?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 19, 2021 16:19:35 GMT -5
Bloom and Cora obviously reading our threads. Only part they've missed is to DFA/waive Santana and go get a significant bat(s) that can play 1st and corner OF: I like that order a little bit better. I think Bloom will come up with a 1b solution by the deadline. Eventually: Duran Bogaerts Devers Martinez Verdugo Rizzo/Carlos Santana/Aguilar/Cooper/Miller - a legit 1b Renfroe Vazquez Arroyo And Kiké Hernandez somewhere in the order in place of whoever gets the day off (not the same spot in the order necessarily but am cool with him leading off against lefties). I’m not sure what Bloom is waiting for at 1B or why he keeps rolling Santana out there. They don’t have to wait two weeks to fix a black hole during an important stretch. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 19, 2021 16:25:08 GMT -5
I think the best way to evaluate Dalbec statistically is to just aggregate all of his stats. I don't see a lot of value in slicing up stats in general, with the exception of times when the cold streaks coincide with an injury. If baseball stats were created by random number generators you'd see lots of hot and cold streaks, too.
The projection spreadsheets are good at aggregating statistics. They have him at .220/.295/.430 or so going forward. That looks reasonable to me.
The thing that concerns me is his defense. DRS has him as a butcher, which matches my eye test. Before the season I thought he'd be above average. If he stinks in the field going forward then he needs to whack the hell out of the ball just to be playable.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 19, 2021 16:25:33 GMT -5
Hopefully he is just waiting for the draft madness to subside.
1B trade will come soon...at least that's my gut feeling...
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jul 19, 2021 16:29:49 GMT -5
I’m not sure there is going to be a big 1b move. I think they think Franchy will be the big 1b move. They will call him up in the next day or two, give him a ride. Then, there is no time to trade for someone. But if they trade, what becomes of Franchy (especially with his work at first). They just brought up a lefty OFer. He becomes stuck, which is essentially the same as giving up on him.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 19, 2021 16:34:42 GMT -5
Just annoyed we keep wasting our time with Santana. I don't have much hope for Franchy, but at least trying him has a tiny chance of working. Santana is just garbage.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 19, 2021 16:47:15 GMT -5
Love shaking things up
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 19, 2021 16:49:15 GMT -5
If there is no 1B move we might need to get used to the idea of this being a wild card team.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 19, 2021 16:55:18 GMT -5
If there is no 1B move we might need to get used to the idea of this being a wild card team. No move sends the wrong message to the team. It will be like the FO isn't doing everything that they can to help and they don't have faith in the team to contend. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 19, 2021 17:00:23 GMT -5
If there is no 1B move we might need to get used to the idea of this being a wild card team. No move sends the wrong message to the team. It will be like the FO isn't doing everything that they can to help and they don't have faith in the team to contend. I think it's the opposite - we like our team and we have confidence in all of you. That said, I think they'll explore a 1B upgrade. Heck, they'll Bloom will explore lots of upgrades. Just depends on the price tags. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 19, 2021 17:02:09 GMT -5
No move sends the wrong message to the team. It will be like the FO isn't doing everything that they can to help and they don't have faith in the team to contend. I think it's the opposite - we like our team and we have confidence in all of you. That said, I think they'll explore a 1B upgrade. Heck, they'll Bloom will explore lots of upgrades. Just depends on the price tags. My point is, they got Steve Pearce late June 2018. I don’t quite understand the lack of urgency given our opponents these next two weeks and the glaring need. There is no need to wait. |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 17:02:18 GMT -5
If there is no 1B move we might need to get used to the idea of this being a wild card team. I wonder what we'd all be saying as Rays fans, with our top two position players by WAR batting .197 and .212 respectively...
Franchy, incidentally, is batting .250 with a 41% K rate in July. In AAA.
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Post by tizzle on Jul 19, 2021 17:09:09 GMT -5
No move sends the wrong message to the team. It will be like the FO isn't doing everything that they can to help and they don't have faith in the team to contend. I think it's the opposite - we like our team and we have confidence in all of you. That said, I think they'll explore a 1B upgrade. Heck, they'll Bloom will explore lots of upgrades. Just depends on the price tags. Modern day players are not going to look at it that way. No move means you didn't believe in them enough to make a move. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2021 17:31:49 GMT -5
I think it's the opposite - we like our team and we have confidence in all of you. That said, I think they'll explore a 1B upgrade. Heck, they'll Bloom will explore lots of upgrades. Just depends on the price tags. My point is, they got Steve Pearce late June 2018. I don’t quite understand the lack of urgency given our opponents these next two weeks and the glaring need. There is no need to wait. The thing about trades is that the other team needs to agree to make the trade as well. You can't just demand they trade the player you want immediately. It's not necessarily the case that the delay is Bloom taking his time. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 19, 2021 17:36:31 GMT -5
I didn’t actually see how arroyo got hurt last night until just now and yeah that’s exactly why I wanted Kikè playing 1B
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 19, 2021 17:38:25 GMT -5
I’m aware, but there are plenty of options that would work and we’re not exactly talking about an elite fielding position like a catcher or some top tier pitcher. Just a halfway decent bat, presumably from a bad team. Teams will make trades that make sense for them.
I get that Arroyo was part of the short-term plan but Santana, that’s not it man.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 19, 2021 17:47:35 GMT -5
No move sends the wrong message to the team. It will be like the FO isn't doing everything that they can to help and they don't have faith in the team to contend. I think it's the opposite - we like our team and we have confidence in all of you. That said, I think they'll explore a 1B upgrade. Heck, they'll Bloom will explore lots of upgrades. Just depends on the price tags. The veterans know better. I have heard it from more than a few players, usually when they are retired, that it was important for the FO to make moves that sends the message we are all in. You think the older guys don't realize the weaknesses on the team? You think they don't want to see a good veteran come in to pick up the slack? I can understand your thought on it but it isn't the way the players feel from what I have heard and read thru the years. The veterans get tired of the poor plate appearances even more than we do. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 19, 2021 17:51:30 GMT -5
No move sends the wrong message to the team. It will be like the FO isn't doing everything that they can to help and they don't have faith in the team to contend. I think it's the opposite - we like our team and we have confidence in all of you. That said, I think they'll explore a 1B upgrade. Heck, they'll Bloom will explore lots of upgrades. Just depends on the price tags. If they don’t make a move for a significant bat and maybe a bullpen arm, Bloom is blowing a huge chance that may not come back for perhaps several years. This core is special and this may be their last year intact. Plus two of them are having career years. No guarantee that will be repeated or escalated in the future. This farm got stronger but it’s still lacking enough MLB-ready talent to make the team an almost certain legit contender next year or even by 2024. So many of these guys while massively talented wither in AAA or MLB. Add to all of this that the Sox still cling to first place.Pissing this moment away while self-assuring that we’ll be there next year or in the next 2-3 years based on the farm and guys currently signed longer term is foolish, if not outright delusional. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2021 17:54:57 GMT -5
I think the best way to evaluate Dalbec statistically is to just aggregate all of his stats. I don't see a lot of value in slicing up stats in general, with the exception of times when the cold streaks coincide with an injury. If baseball stats were created by random number generators you'd see lots of hot and cold streaks, too. The projection spreadsheets are good at aggregating statistics. They have him at .220/.295/.430 or so going forward. That looks reasonable to me. The thing that concerns me is his defense. DRS has him as a butcher, which matches my eye test. Before the season I thought he'd be above average. If he stinks in the field going forward then he needs to whack the hell out of the ball just to be playable. So the reason you chop it up is because you want to see how long the streaks are given the kind of hitter he's going to be. Like he has 10 HR this year - 4 came in one 11-game stretch (.316/.366/.737, 26.8% K rate) and 3 came in another particularly torrid 9-game stretch (.382/.432/.794, 29.7% K). But if he's then going to hit .204/.214/.278 in the following 17 games with a 41.1% K rate (his last 17 games) or .118/.167/.255 with a 50% K rate over 16 games (the stretch between the two stretches described above), you can't really wait for the good 9-game stretches. If you flip the size of the bad stretches, then yeah, you can deal, and yes, the aggregate numbers will kind of tell you that. Aggregate numbers won't tell you how long the stretches are or how good or bad they are. If he's Jekyll for twice as long as Hyde, and whether Hyde is merely acceptable or Hank Aaron (or if Jekyll is replacement-level or DFA material) is useful information. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 18:09:35 GMT -5
Maybe you could make a comparison to Dalbec here, but that was an 11-game stretch and then a 5-game stretch late in a season in which he thoroughly stunk for the first 3 months. (The August stretch actually began immediately after he'd been gone for almost 2 months - in AAA? - so I'm wondering if the league "forgot" its adjustments to him, or if he made a new one that was just very quickly exposed.) By contrast, Dalbec has already had the following stretches this season: 4/11-4/27 (13 games): .325/.372/.550 5/7-5/20 (11 games): .316/.366/.737 6/10-6/20 (9 games): .382/.432/.794 He's spent almost half his season in hot streaks. It's just that his cold streaks are soooo bad.
Or even overall, from 5/7 to 6/29 (38 games) he was a very playable .246/.293/.523.
I guess my point is... it's like Dalbec's thing works some of the time, even with the league presumably having adjusted. And then sometimes he looks terrible. It's not just prospect hope or any early power surge that we're still dreaming on - he has gotten it done at the major league level for some notable stretches! And he still hasn't come close to a full season's worth of PAs yet. So is it too much to see some potential for him to lock into his groove on a more consistent basis?
So yeah, that's sort of what I'm talking about. Is .325/.372/.550 really a hot streak? Like, if Martinez or Devers or Bogearts did that over 13 games nobody would even notice. Not only have the cold stretches been too cold for too long, the hot stretches really haven't been that hot. One streak where he hit like a good first baseman for two weeks, One where he hit .316 but popped a few homers for a week and a half, and once for 10 days he got some luck on his side while his K and walk rates remained awful. Building on what Chris said about aggregate stats vs. arbitrary endpoints, we all know that the arbitrary endpoints aren't necessarily meaningful on their own, but we're looking for mini-trends, possible reasons to be optimistic or to be patient or whatever. With Dalbec, it's the opposite. Carving up his stats make his bad numbers look even worse. He's unplayable for weeks at a time and then he'll hit like three homers in a week but also have all his other numbers be as bad as they were otherwise. Even his good stretches aren't promising. I feel like I'm being pretty harsh here, but at some point when you're talking about giving out playing time at the major league level I have to give what I think is an honest assessment. |
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Post by orion09 on Jul 19, 2021 18:12:36 GMT -5
DURAN!!!
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 19, 2021 18:12:51 GMT -5
LOVE that
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Post by kjkramer on Jul 19, 2021 18:12:52 GMT -5
Wow. Opposite field power! Congrats Duran on 1st of many
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 19, 2021 18:12:52 GMT -5
Impressive shot byDuran!!
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Post by Guidas on Jul 19, 2021 18:12:54 GMT -5
Dinger Duran!
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